1. Project Phoenix - Integrated Assessment of Global Warming Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation with Multi-region and Multi-sector Model and Scenario Development Shunsuke Mori (RITE, Tokyo Univ.of Science) Toshimasa Tomoda, Hiromi Yamamoto, Keigo Akimoto, Koji Tokimatsu, Ayami Hayashi,Takashi Honma (RITE), Takanobu Kosugi,(Ritsumeikan University)

7. Conceptual Frame of the Model V=f(K,L,E)-(secondary energy input costs) VA_E=Σ(capital and labor costs of energy conversion technologies )+(others) VA_Epre=Σ(capital and labor costs of primary energy extraction and production costs)+(others) (Total secondary energy supply)=Σ(Conv. Eff.) ＊ (primary energy inputs) Q EC= P e E EC_pre=PpS Q 2 Q 1 Q Output P L ・ L 2 P L ・ L 1 L Y VA_E VA_pre P k ・ K 2 P k ・ K 1 K Value Added EC= P e E C e = P e E c ０ ０ ０ ０ X e2 = P e E 2 Xe 1 = P e E 1 Secondary EC_pre=PpS ０ ０ ｍ p X pe ０ ０ ０ Primary Energy Sectors Q 2 C 2 I 2 ｍ 2 ０ ０ X 22 = Q 2 ・ a 22 X 21 = Q 1 ・ a 21 2 Q 1 C 1 I 1 ｍ 1 ０ ０ X 12 = Q 2 ・ a 12 X 11 = Q 1 ・ a 11 1 Non-energy Sectors Int. Inputs Q C I m Secondary Primary 2 1 Output Con sump Tion Invest ments trade Energy sectors Non-energy sectors Final demand Intermediate Inputs

8. Basic row-wise constraints

9. Basic column-wise constraints Where Pd(i) : price of i-th goods produced by the national industry PI(i) : price of i-th goods in the international market (average price of the world trade basket) PY(i) : average price of i-th goods in the national market Trd(i): international transportation tariff of i-th goods

10. Integration of energy flow

11. Model structure Simple energy conversion processes

12. Energy flow in DNE-21 model: simplified structure will be imposed.

13. Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors 18 regions Other countries XAP North and Middle African countries NAF Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Island countries ANZ Former USSR FSU Turkey and Middle-East countries TME Hungary, Poland and other east European countries EEP Asia NIES countries ASN West and middle European countries WEP India IND Peru, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and other south American countries SAM China, Hong kong, Taiwan CHN Brazil BRA Japan JPN Middle American countries MCM South African countries SAF Canada CAN Middle African countries CAF USA USA

14. Aggregation of GTAP data into 18 regions and 18 non-energy sectors 18 non-energy sectors Social services SSR Paper, pulp and printings PPP Business services BSR Food Products FPR Aviation ATP Mining OMN Transportation T_T Other machinery OME Agricultural products AGR Transport equipments TRN Other manufacturing OMF Non- metal materials NMM Textiles, wearing, apparel and leather TWL Non-ferrous metals NFM Construction CNS Chemical industry CRP Wood, Pulp and printing LUM Iron and steel I_S

19. Loss of value added in the world for Case 2

25. Exogenous conditions Lower warming factors & events Upper warming factors & events Lower warming factors & events Upper warming factors & events 4:parameters, constraints, exogenous variables 5:Feedback: consistency check 3:Scenario generation by X-I method 1:TAR-assumptions 2:Structure Analysis among factors Quantitative IAM - economy - technology - energy - natural resource - etc. Integration : Scenario Generation and Simulations

27. Structure Analysis for the Narrative Scenario Generation

29. Extracted key events of the global warming factors People value the traditional cultures and customs rather than to accept foreign ones. Valuing traditions 8 Education on the global environmental issues diffuses over the world. Penetration of environmental education 7 Internet become familiar and most people use it. Penetration of internet 6 Long-term investments for more than 30 years become difficult. Difficulty in long term investments 5 The environmental additional costs (e.g. relatively expensive renewable sources and recycling costs) are socially accepted. Social acceptance of environmental costs 4 Nuclear power stations are socially accepted and increase. Expansion of nuclear power stations 3 For the sake of risk-hedging of primary energy supply, regions prefer self-sufficient and diversified energy sources. self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources 2 World economy is covered by the unified global large market. Unification of world market 1 Contents of the event Event Events

30. Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption) Impact structure among events (SRES-A1 assumption)

31. Occurrence probabilities and scenarios; Results of X-I method on SRES-A1 assumptions

32. Implication structure on SRES-A1 assumptions

38. Possible impacts of Sea-level rise on Rice production area in Bangladesh (100cm sea level rise case)

39. (a) NPP in 2000 (b) NPP in 2050 Comparison of Net Primary Production in South Asia Region Estimation based on ECHAM4

40. Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050 Comparison of NPP in 2000 and 2050 with Sea Level Rise NPP NPP total average NPP NPP total average NPP NPP total average NPP NPP total average

41. Potential Rice Production Change due to High Temperature Damage in 2050 India Bangladesh Thailand Vietnam Total Ave-rage Total Total Total Ave-rage Ave-rage Ave-rage