May 2016: The Berkshire Hathaway Issue of The Manual of Ideas

1. Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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Investing In The Tradition of
Graham, Buffett, Klarman
Year IX, Volume V
May 2016
When asked how he became so
successful, Buffett answered:
“We read hundreds and hundreds
of annual reports every year.”
Top Ideas In This Report
General Motors
(NYSE: GM) ……………………… 26
IBM
(NYSE: IBM) ……………………… 34
Lee Enterprises
(NYSE: LEE) ……………………... 42
Also Inside
Editorial Commentary ………………. 3
Insights into Berkshire Hathaway …. 7
Holdings of Berkshire Hathaway ….18
Interview: Sean Stannard-Stockton 94
10 Essential Value Screens ……….. 98
Highlighted Events — Join Us!
Asian Investing Summit 2016
April 5-6, 2016, fully online REPLAY
valueconferences.com
The Zurich Project Workshop 2016
June 8-9, 2016, Zurich SOLD OUT
zurichworkshop.com
Wide-Moat Investing Summit 2016
June 28-29, 2016, fully online
valueconferences.com
Latticework 2016
September 14, 2016, New York
latticework.com
VALUEx Munich 2016
September 20, 2016, Munich
valuex.org BY INVITATION ONLY
THE BERKSHIRE
HATHAWAYISSUE
► Selected BRK Holdings Profiled by The Manual of Ideas Team
► Proprietary Selection of Top Three Candidates for Investment
► Insights into Berkshire Hathaway by Larry Cunningham,
John Huber, Jeremy Miller, Ravi Nagarajan, and Whitney Tilson
► Exclusive Interview with Sean Stannard-Stockton
► 10 Essential Screens for Value Investors
Berkshire Hathaway holdings analyzed in this issue include
Axalta Coating (AXTA), Deere & Company (DE), General Motors (GM),
Graham Holdings (GHC), IBM (IBM), Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI),
Lee Enterprises (LEE), Media General (MEG), Moody’s (MCO),
NOW (DNOW), Phillips 66 (PSX), Procter & Gamble (PG),
Suncor Energy (SU), U.S. Bancorp (USB), USG (USG),
Verisign (VRSN), Verizon (VZ), Visa (V), and Wal-Mart (WMT).
New Exclusive Content
in the MOI Members Area
(log in at www.manualofideas.com
or email support@manualofideas.com)
 Jeremy Miller on Warren Buffett’s “Ground Rules”
 Dan Sheehan on Avoiding Bad Investments
 Three Idea Presentations from Asian Investing Summit 2016
 PREMIUM: Business Development for Investment ManagersREPLAY at ValueConferences.com
REPLAY Asian Investing Summit
2016, the fully online conference
hosted by ValueConferences and
The Manual of Ideas.
Visit ValueConferences.com

2. Table of Contents
EDITORIAL COMMENTARY ......................................................................... 3
INSIGHTS INTO BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY BY FELLOW MEMBERS OF
THE GLOBAL VALUE INVESTING COMMUNITY........................................ 7
LARRY CUNNINGHAM: FROM VALUE INVESTING TO TRUST MANAGING ...........................................7
JOHN HUBER: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY IS SAFE AND CHEAP ..........................................................8
JEREMY MILLER: WARREN BUFFETT’S “GROUND RULES”............................................................10
RAVI NAGARAJAN: BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY IN 2026 ....................................................................13
WHITNEY TILSON: UPDATED INVESTMENT THESIS AND VALUATION..............................................16
PROFILING SELECTED HOLDINGS OF BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY........ 18
AXALTA COATING (NYSE: AXTA) – BRK, CARLYLE, DECCAN, FRANKLIN, GSAM, IVORY ...........18
DEERE & CO. (NYSE: DE) – BRK, CAP WORLD, CASCADE, FRANKLIN, PRIMECAP, T ROWE.......22
GENERAL MOTORS (NYSE: GM) – APPALOOSA, AQUAMARINE, BRK, GREENLIGHT, PABRAI .......26
GRAHAM HOLDINGS (NYSE: GHC) – AQR, BRK, CAP RE, DFA, GIOVINE, SOUTHEASTERN.......30
IBM (NYSE: IBM) – BRK, ESL, FAIRFAX, GEODE, MAGELLAN, OLDFIELD, TWEEDY....................34
KINDER MORGAN (NYSE: KMI) – APPALOOSA, BRK, CAP RE, HIGHSTAR, PENNANT ..................38
LEE ENTERPRISES (NYSE: LEE) – BRIDGEWAY, BRK, FRANKLIN, SILVER POINT, WINGSPAN .....42
MEDIA GENERAL (NYSE: MEG) – ARIEL, BRK, HM, STANDARD GENERAL, STARBOARD ............46
MOODY’S (NYSE: MCO) – AKRE, ALTAROCK, BLOOMBERGSEN, BRK, CAP RE, FIERA ..............50
NOW INC. (NYSE: DNOW) – ARLINGTON VALUE, BRK, CLEARBRIDGE, FAIRHOLME, HARRIS.....54
PHILLIPS 66 (NYSE: PSX) – BARROW, BRK, DFA, FIDELITY, ROBECO, WELLINGTON ................58
PROCTER & GAMBLE (NYSE: PG) – BRK, CAP WORLD, FIDELITY, GEODE, YACKTMAN..............62
SUNCOR ENERGY (CANADA: SU, NYSE: SU) – BRK, CAP RE, PAULSON, WELLINGTON..............66
U.S. BANCORP (NYSE: USB) – BRK, CAP RE, FIDELITY, MFS, PACIFICA, SQ ADVISORS ..........70
USG (NYSE: USG) – BRK, GREENHAVEN, HARRIS, LONDON CO, SASCO, SHAPIRO ..................74
VERISIGN (NASDAQ: VRSN) – ARONSON, BRK, CAP WORLD, MAKAIRA, RENTECH, T ROWE ......78
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS (NYSE: VZ) – BARROW, BRK, CAP WORLD, GOODHAVEN..............82
VISA (NYSE: V) – ALKEON, ALTAROCK, BRK, CANTILLON, LONE PINE, WEDGEWOOD ................86
WALMART (NYSE: WMT) – ALPINE, BRK, COURAGE, DODGE & COX, GATES FOUNDATION........90
SEAN STANNARD-STOCKTON ON BUFFETT-STYLE INVESTING IN A
MUTUAL FUND AND SEPARATE ACCOUNT CONTEXT......................... 94
TEN ESSENTIAL SCREENS FOR VALUE INVESTORS ........................... 98
“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON TRAILING OPERATING INCOME.....................................................98
“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON THIS YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES .....................................................99
“MAGIC FORMULA,” BASED ON NEXT YEAR’S EPS ESTIMATES..................................................100
CONTRARIAN: BIGGEST YTD LOSERS (DELEVERAGED & PROFITABLE).......................................101
CONTRARIAN: CHEAP FREE CASH FLOW GUSHERS ..................................................................102
VALUE WITH CATALYST: CHEAP REPURCHASERS OF STOCK .....................................................103
PROFITABLE DIVIDEND PAYORS WITH DECENT BALANCE SHEETS .............................................104
DEEP VALUE: LOTS OF REVENUE, LOW ENTERPRISE VALUE .....................................................105
DEEP VALUE: NEGLECTED GROSS PROFITEERS.......................................................................106
ACTIVIST TARGETS: POTENTIAL SALES, LIQUIDATIONS OR RECAPS ...........................................107

3. Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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About The Manual of Ideas:
Our goal is to bring you investment ideas that are compelling on the basis of value versus price. In our quest for value, we analyze the top holdings of top
fund managers. We also use a proprietary methodology to identify stocks that are not widely followed by institutional investors.
Our research team has extensive experience in industry and security analysis, equity valuation, and investment management. We bring a “buy side” mindset
to the idea generation process, cutting across industries and market capitalization ranges in our search for compelling equity investment opportunities.
Editorial Commentary
The Berkshire Hathaway Annual General Meeting is just around the corner, and we
are pleased to present this issue as somewhat of a “companion” to this quintessential
event for value investors worldwide. Inside, we analyze selected Berkshire holdings
and feature insights into Buffett and Munger’s holding company by fellow members
of the global value investing community.
Larry Cunningham shares his thoughts on Buffett’s “second legacy”, describing an
evolution from pure value investing to “trust managing”, a governance model that
has created tremendous value for Berkshire and that others are increasingly seeking
to emulate. According to Larry, “If the most important three words in investing are
margin of safety, the three in governance are margin of trust.”
John Huber shares his thoughts on the investment merits of Berkshire Hathaway. He
states succinctly why Berkshire’s insurance float has tremendous value even as it
shows up on the liability side of the balance sheet. John also delves into the valuation
and makes a compelling case why Berkshire has low downside while retaining
material upside, perhaps as much as 50% over the next three years.
Jeremy Miller shares insights from his new book, Warren Buffett’s Ground Rules, in
an exclusive interview with MOI’s Shai Dardashti. Jeremy went deep into Buffett’s
per-Berkshire letters to partners and attempted to reconstruct Buffett’s thinking,
process, and actions in cases including Dempster, Sanborn Map, American Express,
and Disney. Jeremy also tracks Buffett’s evolution from deep value to quality.
Ravi Nagarajan assesses Berkshire’s prospects of compounding capital over the next
decade and concludes that the allocation task facing Buffett and his successors is
becoming increasingly daunting. Ravi concludes that Berkshire may need to increase
the stated repurchase threshold in order to return more cash to shareholders in a tax-
efficient way (from the perspective of continuing shareholders). States Ravi,
“Whether an increase in the repurchase limit is something under consideration is
perhaps one of the most important questions facing Berkshire shareholders today and
a topic worthy of discussion at the upcoming annual meeting.”
Whitney Tilson provides an update of his investment thesis on Berkshire and
concludes that the shares offer an attractive risk-reward tradeoff. Whitney shares his
analysis of the fair value of the equity and reveals: “I now peg intrinsic value at
$283,000 [per] A share (equal to 1.82x book), based on $159,794 of investments per
share plus 10x $12,304, the pre-tax earnings of the operating businesses.”
Also inside, we bring you an exclusive interview with Sean Stannard-Stockton who
describes his approach to Buffett-style investing in high-quality businesses within a
mutual fund and separate account structure, i.e., in the absence of permanent capital.
Stannard-Stockton’s lucid philosophy and case examples may resonate with your
own views and experiences.


4. Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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We highlight the following three Berkshire holdings as particularly worthy of closer
consideration, although we caution that the risk profile of Lee Enterprises common
stock is materially different than that of a “typical” Berkshire holding:
General Motors (NYSE: GM, $30 per share; MV $47 billion)
Technology-based disruption (e.g., Tesla, Uber, Google) appears to have spooked
investors, leading many to ignore the fact that GM has reemerged as a credible
global competitor, with a much-improved balance sheet, a refreshed product
portfolio, strong pipeline, and management that appears focused on execution and
value-enhancing capital allocation. While cyclicality and long-term competitiveness
are legitimate concerns, we find GM shares too cheap to ignore at a mid- to high-
teens forward EPS yield.
We are not sure whether Berkshire holds GM due to the attractive valuation or a
positive assessment of industry dynamics, but we agree that GM offers unusual
value. Buybacks could help close the gap between price and value.
IBM (NYSE: IBM, $150 per share; MV $145 billion)
IBM shares continue to trade below the ~$170 per-share price paid by Berkshire, on
average, to acquire 64 million shares in 2011. Since then, Berkshire has increased its
stake to 81 million shares.
While IBM management was forced to abandon a goal of at least $20 in operating
EPS in 2015, IBM trades at an attractive ~9% earnings yield based on consensus
EPS of ~$13.50 in 2016. Despite revenue pressures, IBM has posted reasonably
strong results in areas of “strategic imperative”, such as big data, cloud, mobile,
security, and social. Management remains committed to returning value to
shareholders through dividends ($33 billion paid over the last ten years) and share
repurchases (share count reduced by 37% over the past decade). Impressively, IBM
has generated FCF, excluding financing receivables, of $144 billion from 2006-2015,
approximating the recent equity quotation. With the company’s core franchises and
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5. Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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services/software-focused approach largely intact, IBM offers an attractive risk-
reward to investors who are willing to look through near-term revenue and earnings
pressures. Paradoxically, a stagnant stock price enables management to add more
long-term value via buybacks, so we would expect repurchases to remain strong. At
a quotation of $150 per share or below, IBM deserves closer consideration.
Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE, $1.80 per share; MV $100 million)
Newspaper company Lee’s shares trade as if another bankruptcy was a foregone
conclusion, despite strong FCF, debt repayments, and debt repurchases at well below
par value. Lee has been out of bankruptcy for four years, looking for ways to
leverage the large audiences it reaches via fifty daily newspapers in midsize U.S.
markets. The newspapers have circulation of 1.0+ million daily and 1.3+ million on
Sundays. A viable model likely exists for the industry, although the customer value
proposition needs to be vastly different than in the past. Lee could grow intrinsic
value by becoming a “champion” of the local communities in which it operates,
reporting on the local news rather than rehashing information available elsewhere.
Given the weak balance sheet, FCF generation and debt reduction have been
management priorities. Here the news is good: Lee continues to generate unlevered
FCF of close to $150 million annually, amounting to more than one-fifth of debt.
This should enable management to reduce debt and grow equity value. Lee has
prioritized balance sheet deleveraging, cutting debt from $1.7 billion in 2005 to $785
million at the end of CY14 and $660 million at the end of February 2016.
At an enterprise value of roughly $800 million, we find the equity market quotation
too low. The high-teens unlevered FCF yield is attractive in its own right. With
levered FCF amounting to roughly two-thirds of the recent equity quotation, the risk-
reward tradeoff remains attractive. Major debt maturities are scheduled for 2022-23,
implying low near-term refinancing risk. As deleveraging proceeds, equity upside
should crystallize.

A look back: Top three ideas highlighted in The Manual of Ideas, May 2015:
General Motors (NYSE: GM, $35 per share; MV $56 billion)
A year later, GM shares traded at $30 per share. We continue to find them attractive.
Lee Enterprises (NYSE: LEE, $3.30 per share; MV $200 million)
A year later, Lee shares traded at $1.80 per share. We continue to find them attractive.
Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU, $31 per share; MV $45 billion)
A year later, Suncor shares traded at $28 per share. We continue to find them attractive.
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6. Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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
A couple of weeks ago, great ideas were presented at Asian Investing Summit 2016,
the fully online investment conference we co-host with ValueConferences. Three
idea presentations are now available for your enjoyment in The Manual of Ideas
Members Area, and I am pleased to include the respective thesis summaries below:
Stephen Yacktman and Jason Subotky on Samsung Electronic Preferred Shares
(Korea: 005935): Price drives the thesis, with the shares trading at less than 5x
earnings, net of cash and investments; less than 3x EV to EBIT; less than 2x EV to
EBITDA; and below tangible book. Stephen and Jason estimate that at the end of
Q1, ~50% of market value was in net cash and investments. Since Stephen and
Jason’s presentation on Samsung at Best Ideas 2015 in January 2015, the company
has (i) announced a transformational share repurchase and capital return plan in
October 2015; (ii) stabilized the phone business in the mid-to-low end (recent launch
of Galaxy S7 shows promise); and (iii) faced near-term challenges in the memory
market. Meanwhile, the preferred shares trade modestly lower in USD terms.
Sidd Mehta on Piramal Enterprises (NSE: PEL): Piramal is a conglomerate run by
one of India’s greatest capital allocators, Ajay Piramal. The company has roots in the
pharma space, most of which (generics) was sold to Abbott Labs in 2009 for 9x
revenue. Ajay Piramal has used the funds to build what Sidd believes is the
Berkshire of India. Piramal shares recently traded at 1.3x price-to-book. For a
business that has compounded BV at 32% over 27 years, this appears cheap.
James Choa on CK Hutchison (Hong Kong: 1): With a market capitalization of
US$50 billion, CKH is an investment holding company with core businesses in
retail, infrastructure, telecom, and ports. The company was founded by chairman Li
Ka Shing. Over the past 25 years, Li has increased book value per share, inclusive of
dividends, by 2,270%, a track record that is comparable to that of Berkshire
Hathaway (2,315%). Despite its outstanding performance, the company has traded at
large discount to intrinsic value in recent years. In 2015, the Li family embarked on a
complex reorganization under which Cheung Kong Holdings (the former holdco)
will purchase shares in Hutchison Whampoa that it does not already own, and merge
the companies under a new entity, CK Hutchison Holdings, while spinning off all
real estate assets into a separate company. The restructuring not only aims to unlock
value at the holding company but also to position CKH as a premier global
conglomerate and world class capital allocator. CKH trades at a 30% discount to
intrinsic value and at about 1x P/B, well below peers in developed markets.

I take this opportunity to thank Larry Cunningham, Shai Dardashti, John Huber,
Jeremy Miller, Ravi Nagarajan, Sean Stannard-Stockton, and Whitney Tilson for
their contributions to this issue.

Sincerely,
John Mihaljevic, CFA
and The Manual of Ideas research team

7. Value-oriented Equity Investment Ideas for Sophisticated Investors
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