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Ride the Storm: Navigating Through Unstable Periods / Katerina Rudko (Belka G...
Stock market special report by epic research 16th september 2014
1. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
Asian shares cautiously edged higher on Tuesday as inves- tors awaited a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting beginning later in the session, as expectations of a more hawkish Fed stance on monetary policy underpinned the dollar. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Ja- pan .MIAPJ0000PUS was slightly higher in early trade. Ja- pan's Nikkei stock average shed 0.4%, catching up after Tokyo markets were closed for a local holiday on Monday.
European shares slipped on Monday, with stocks trading in a narrow range before Scotland votes on independence and the Federal Reserve holds its latest policy meeting, both events that are due later this week. The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares ended 0.05% lower at 1,382.32 ps.
Wall Street
Wall Street had a mixed session on Monday after weekend data showed China's factory output in August grew at its slowest pace in nearly six years, raising fears the world's second-largest economy was losing momentum.
US stocks closed mixed on Monday as the tech sector dragged the Nasdaq to its worst day since July and kept the S&P 500 near the unchanged mark as investors cleared the decks for Alibaba's debut planned for later this week.
Previous day Roundup
After a tough struggle, the market ended on a lower note. the selling pressure resumed again on Monday dragging the Sensex below 27000 level dented by weak industrial output in July despite significant fall in August inflation. Global nervousness ahead of FOMC meet (which will begin on Tuesday, today) too caused pressure. However, the broader markets outperformed benchmarks and the mar- ket breadth remained positive. The Sensex was down 244.48 points or 0.9 percent at 26816.56 and the Nifty slipped 63.50 points or 0.8 percent at 8042.00. About 1750 shares advanced, 1310 shares declined, and 96 shares were unchanged.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [down 70.99pts], Capital Goods [down 136.95pts], PSU [down 40.24pts], FMCG [down 57.27pts], Auto [down 50.15pts], Healthcare [up 56.85pts], IT [down 99.07Pts], Metals [down 211.58pts], TECK [down 33.68pts], Oil& Gas [up 205.04pts], Power [down 1.43pts], Realty [up 3.18pts].
World Indices
Index
Value
% Change
D J l
17031.14
+0.26
S&P 500
1984.13
-0.07
NASDAQ
4518.90
-1.07
EURO STO
3231.70
-0.10
FTSE 100
6804.21
-0.04
Nikkei 225
15892.87
-0.35
Hong Kong
24356.99
-0.97
Top Gainers
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
LUPIN
1,418.00
59.00
4.34
MCDOWELL-N
2,357.00
61.65
2.69
CIPLA
627.00
14.25
2.33
PNB
997.20
1285
1.31
HEROMOTOCO
2,791.00
32.45
1.18
Top Losers
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
JINDALSTEL
224.40
11.75
-4.98
HINDALCO
163.20
5.40
-3.20
AMBUJACEM
210.30
4.50
-2.09
KOTAKBANK
1,046.95
22.20
-2.08
ULTRACEMCO
2,585.00
54.35
-2.06
Stocks at 52 Week’s high
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ARVIND
333.10
2.65
-0.79
AUROPHARMA
894.00
2.15
-0.24
CIPLA
627
14.25
+2.33
COX&KINGS
315
15.30
+5.11
ESCORTS
154.20
6.45
+4.37
Indian Indices
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
8042.00
-63.50
-0.78
SENSEX
26816.56
-244.48
-0.90
Stocks at 52 Week’s Low
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
2. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. SYNDICATE BANK FUTURE
SYNDICATE BANK FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long
build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sus-tains
above 130 levels. We advise buying around 130-132
levels with strict stop loss of 127 for the targets of 135-138.
2. HEROMOTO CORP FUTURE
HERO MOTO CORP FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long
build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sus-tains
above 2800 levels. We advise buying around 2790-
2800 levels with strict stop loss of 2760 for the targets of
2830-2850 levels.
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. SONATA SOFT
Sonata soft strong on daily chart. We advise buying
around 126-127 level with strict stop loss 123 for the tar-gets
130-133
MACRO NEWS
WPI for August hit a five year low at 3.74% courtesy de-clining
vegetable prices and other food articles. August
WPI inflation stood at 5.19% in July. It was estimated it to
be at 4.1%. Food inflation in August hit a lowest level
since January 2012. It eased to 5.15% vs 8.43% MoM.
Vegetable prices contracted 4.88%. Maintaining a down-ward
trend, the onion prices contracted by 44.7% in Au-gust.
Inflation in the fruits basket eased to 20.31% in Au-gust.
August fuel inflation also hit a 5-year low with the
fuel and power group inflation declining to 4.54% versus
7.40% (MoM).
India's services exports in July rose 7.4% from a year ago
to USD 13.34 bn, data from the RBI showed. However,
import of services during the month rose marginally by a
3 percent from a year ago to USD 6.82 bn.
Oil Ministry extends deadline for comments on revenue
sharing draft. The companies will have to indicate the
quantity of oil and gas they will share with the govern-ment
at different stages of production.
Gilead licenses hepatitis C drug to Cipla, Ranbaxy, 5 others
The companies will be allowed to set their own prices for
the generic drug, and will pay a royalty on their earned
sales to Gilead.
3. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol
Op- tion
Type
Strike Price
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
PE
8,000
42.5
3,92,698
74,75,100
NIFTY
PE
8,100
87
3,43,450
34,35,100
NIFTY
PE
7,900
17.9
2,32,718
58,03,400
BANKNIFTY
PE
16,000
110.85
34,341
3,57,050
SBIN
PE
2,600
33.8
5,380
2,14,750
TATASTEEL
PE
500
7.5
2,075
10,28,000
MCDOWELL
PE
2,300
22
1,887
92,750
RELIANCE
PE
1,000
11.65
1,822
8,04,000
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol
Op- tion
Type
Strike Price
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
CE
8,100
46.05
4,38,821
58,21,250
NIFTY
CE
8,200
16.25
3,90,487
72,36,300
NIFTY
CE
8,300
4.5
2,10,502
62,26,600
BANKNIFTY
CE
16,500
91.95
42,106
7,27,750
SBIN
CE
2,700
19.8
6,545
4,13,500
RELIANCE
CE
1,020
9.8
4,286
10,65,500
MCDOWELL-N
CE
2,400
26
3,497
2,19,250
ICICIBANK
CE
1,600
11.25
2,687
6,94,000
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
SELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES
35660
1439.82
70255
2834.74
247379
9981.24
-1394.93
INDEX OPTIONS
344146
13862.28
320528
12937.28
1564498
62928.38
925.00
STOCK FUTURES
45895
1787.50
56135
2319.26
1319410
49232.94
-531.76
STOCK OPTIONS
44828
1782.80
46318
1856.40
69367
2552.39
-73.59
TOTAL
-1075.29
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
8,097.07
8,069.53
8,049.77
8,022.23
8,002.47
BANK NIFTY
16,304.75
16,236.15
16,171.10
16,102.50
16,037.45
STOCKS IN NEWS Suzuki to increase market share in motorcycles seg- ment to 5%. HeroMotoCorp plans to invest Rs 1600cr in new plant. Lupin likely to sign $1.5 bn deal with Merck Serono. JSW Steel plans to acquire Italy's Lucchini for sub $100 mn. Cognizant to acquire healthcare IT firm TriZetto for $2.7bn. JSW says its offer for Italian steelmaker Lucchini is be- low $100 mln.
NIFTY FUTURE
Bank Nifty Future closed in the red in the last trading session. We advise buying around 16310-16320 levels with strict stop loss 16210 the targets of 16410-16510
4. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
COMMODITY MCX
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER DEC ABOVE 41630 TGTS 41830,42130 SL 41330
SELL SILVER DEC BELOW 41200 TGTS 41000,40700 SL 41500
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 27140 TGTS 27220,27320 SL 27050
SELL GOLD OCT BELOW 26900 TGTS 26820,26720 SL 27050
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
U.S. crude edged down about 0.1 percent to $92.79 a bar- rel, pressured by the weekend data from China that cast doubt on the strength of global demand. On Monday, the expiring Brent LCOc1 contract for October dropped to its weakest price since July 2012, while the new front-month contract added 0.2 percent in Asia. Brent crude oil futures ended little changed on Monday after weak Chinese eco- nomic data sent prices to a 26-month low earlier in the day, while U.S. crude rose after bouncing off a technical support level near a 16-month low reached last week.
Gold rose 0.33% to Rs 27,170 per 10 grams in futures trade yesterday as participants engaged in enlarging positions on a firming trend overseas. At MCX, the metal for delivery in far-month December gained Rs 90, or 0.33%, to trade at Rs 27,170 per 10 grams in a turnover of 153 lots. October gold moved up by Rs 80, or 0.30%, to Rs 26,978 per 10 grams, clocking a business volume of 2,710 lots. The rise in global markets where gold rallied from an 8-month low supported the rise in precious metal prices at futures trade here. There was speculation that reduced prices may spur pur- chases before the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting. Globally, gold climbed 0.40% to $1,235.07 an ounce in Singapore.
Spot gold was steady on the day at $1,232.36 an ounce, supported by the Chinese data but undermined by expecta- tions that the Fed will start hinting at interest rate hikes. On Monday, it fell to its lowest level since January.
The Steel Ministry is watching the rising trend in steel im- ports for the last few months, mostly from China, and would review the situation next month to consider any suit- able action.
Natural gas prices rose on Monday after updated weather- forecasting models called for seasonably warm tempera- tures across the southern U.S., which should boost demand for air conditioning. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in October were up 1.44% at $3.913 per million British thermal units during U.S. trading. The commodity hit a session low of $3.840, and a high of $3.952. Elsewhere on the NYMEX, light sweet crude oil fu- tures for delivery in November were up 0.27% at $91.62 a barrel, while heating oil for October delivery were up 0.13% at $2.7441 per gallon.
5. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA OCT ABOVE 11550 TGTS 11580,11630 SL 11500
SELL DHANIYA OCT BELOW 11475 TGTS 11445,11395 SL 11525
GUARGUM
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 15820 TGTS 15870,15970 SL 15730
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 15720 TGTS 15670,15570 SL 15810
NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index
Value
% Change
Castor Seed
4078
+2.72
Chana
2770
+0.36
Coriander
11190
+0.33
Cotton Seed Oilcake
1695
-0.76
Guarseed
5547
-0.89
Jeera
10690
-0.19
Mustard seed
3565
+0.82
Soy Bean
3210
+1.04
Sugar M Grade
2910
-0.51
Turmeric
5638
-1.23
NCDEX ROUNDUP
Prices of agricultural commodities have fallen up to 20 per cent since April, despite the delay in rains and the conse- quent fall in sowing area this kharif season. While the price of RBD (refined, bleached and diodised) palmolein plunged 20 per cent to Rs 48.8 a kg on rising imports from Indonesia and Malaysia, maize prices fell 18 per cent to Rs 12.15 a kg. Abundant supply of rice and wheat kept cereal prices under check. This kharif season, the government released an addi- tional 10 million tonnes (mt) of wheat and five mt of rice into the open markets to create room for procurement in Food Corporation of India godowns.
Local pepper production is likely to be double in the next crop season (December 2014-May 2015), according to esti- mates by exporters and growers. Spices Board estimates are a bit higher, at 70,000 tonnes. In 2014, total domestic pro- duction was just 30,000-32,000 tonnes.
Data compiled by SEA showed vegetable oil import into In- dia rose 76 per cent (over a year) to 1.33 million tonnes in August, the highest monthly figure since its import was al- lowed under open general licence (OGL) in 1994. Subdued prices were the biggest factor. After a five-year low of ring- git 1,914 a tonne last week in Bursa Malaysia, crude palm oil (CPO) is currently at R2,000 a tonne. India's vegetable oil import, as a consequence to the price fall, is expected to set a new record this year at 11.5 mt (Rs 60,000 crore or $10 billion), of which 9.5 mt has already arrived. Total annual vegetable oil consumption in India is estimated at 19.5 mt.
6. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
GBP/INR
BUY GBP-INR ABOVE 99.8800 TGT 100.0800,100.4000 SL 99.6300
SELL GBP-INR BELOW 99.5500 TGT 98.3500,98.0500 SL 98.8200
USD/INR
BUY USD-INR ABOVE 61.5000 TGT 61.7000,61.9500 SL 61.2500
SELL USD-INR BELOW 61.2000 TGT 61.0000,60.7000 SL 61.4800
CURRENCY ROUNDUP
The Indian rupee breached 61 level, hitting a four-month low on the bank of weakness in equity markets and in- creased demand for dollars overseas. The Indian rupee hit a one-month low and saw its biggest single-day decline in nearly one-and-a-half months on Monday, tracking weak- ness in other Asian currencies, while dollar demand from custodian banks due to the fall in the share market also hurt.
Asian currencies took a hammering on Monday and the dol- lar further strengthened after data out on Saturday showed China's factory output grew at the weakest pace in nearly six years in August, and growth in other key sectors also cooled.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a bas- ket of six major rivals, was steady on the day at 84.241 .DXY, not far from its 14-month peak of 84.519 scaled a week ago. trade to $98.07. The U.S. dollar loitered in familiar territory early on Tuesday with investors reluctant to do much as they waited for fresh guidance on interest rates from the Federal Reserve, while the Australian dollar rebounded from a six-month trough.
The euro was treading water at $1.2939, while the dollar edged down slightly against its Japanese rival to 107.15 yen but was still close to a six-year high of 107.39 yen touched on Friday.
Raghuram Rajan along with his four deputy governors to hold pre-policy consultations with market bodies represent- ing India's debt, FX markets and with officials representing mutual funds and micro-finance institutions. RBI Deputy Governor scheduled to give an address at a banking confer- ence. The Reserve Bank of India to conduct 14-day term repo variable rate auction for 150 billion rupees ($2.45 bil- lion) on Sept. 16. Indian banks' refinancing with RBI rises to 120.37 billion rupees. Indian banks' cash balances with RBI rise to 3.31 trillion rupees.
RBI Reference Rate
Currency
Rate
Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
60.9945
Yen-100
56.8500
Euro
79.0306
GBP
99.0978
7. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
CALL REPORT
PERFORMANCE UPDATES
Date
Commodity/ Currency Pairs
Contract
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
15/08/14
MCX GOLD
OCT.
BUY
27000
27150-27980
26880
NO PROFIT NO LOSS
15/08/14
MCX GOLD
OCT.
SELL
26900
26820-26720
27050
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
MCX SILVER
DEC.
BUY
41500
41800-42000
41100
NO PROFIT NO LOSS
15/08/14
MCX SILVER
DEC.
SELL
41000
40750-40450
41350
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
NCDEX GUARGUM
OCT.
BUY
16050
16100-16200
15900
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
NCDEX GUARGUM
OCT.
SELL
15750
15700-15600
15900
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
15/08/14
NCDEX DHANIYA
OCT.
BUY
11635
11675-11725
11585
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
NCDEX DHANIYA
OCT.
SELL
11410
11360-11260
11560
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
EUR/INR
SEP.
BUY
78.90
79.15-79.40
78.68
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
15/08/14
EUR/INR
SEP.
SELL
78.48
78.28-77.98
78.73
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
GBP/INR
SEP.
SELL
98.50
98.30-98.00
98.78
NOT EXECUTED
15/08/14
GBP/INR
SEP.
BUY
99.00
99.20-99.50
98.73
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
Date
Scrip
CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION
Strategy
Entry Level
Target
Stop Loss
Remark
15/08/14
NIFTY
FUTURE
BUY
8150-8160
8190-8240
8110
NOT EXEUTED
15/08/14
EXIDE
FUTURE
BUY
174-175
178-180
170
NOT EXEUTED
15/08/14
BANK OF INDIA
FUTURE
BUY
288-290
296-299
285
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
15/08/14
ALEMBI PHARMA
CASH
BUY
434.5-435
442.5-450.5
426.5
BOOKED PROFIT
12/08/14
SYNDICATEBANK
FUTURE
BUY
125-126
129-1323
122
BOOKED FULL PROFIT
11/08/14
NIFTY
FUTURE
SELL
8100-8090
8050-8000
8150
BOOKED PROFIT
8. DAILY REPORT
16th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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Disclaimer
TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
CONSENSUS FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, SEPT. 15
8:30 AM
EMPIRE STATE INDEX
SEPT.
12.0
14.7
9:15 AM
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
AUG.
0.3%
0.4%
9:15 AM
CAPACITY UTILIZATION
AUG.
79.3%
79.2%
TUESDAY, SEPT. 16
8:30 AM
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX
AUG.
0.1%
0.1%
WEDNESDAY, SEPT. 17
8:30 AM
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
AUG.
0.0%
0.1%
8:30 AM
CORE CPI
AUG.
0.2%
0.1%
8:30 AM
CURRENT ACCOUNT
Q2
--
-$111 BLN
10 AM
HOME BUILDERS' INDEX
SEPT.
--
55
2 PM
FOMC STATEMENT
2:30 PM
YELLEN PRESS CONFERENCE
THURSDAY, SEPT. 18
8:30 AM
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS
SEPT. 13
N/A
N/A
8:30 AM
HOUSING STARTS
AUG.
1.03 MLN
1.09 MLN
10 AM
PHILLY FED
SEPT.
28.0
29.3
12 NOON
FINANCIAL ACCOUNTS
Q2
FRIDAY, SEPT. 19
10 AM
LEADING INDICATORS
AUG.
--
0.9%