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Indicate a Stock Market
Bubble in Trouble
Unprecedented
Extremes
It is amazing to read assertions from the
Fed and others that the stock market is
nowhere near being in a bubble. Several
aspects of the financial environment are
actually so extreme as to be
unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble,
and others a bubble in trouble.”
June 19, 2015 | The Elliott Wave Theorist
Robert Prechter
President, Elliott Wave International
Record debt
in U.S. dollars
Total dollar-denominated debt
peaked at $52.7 trillion in early
2009. At the end of Q1 2015, it
stands at $59 trillion, an
unprecedented amount.
LEARN MORE »
u
Margin Debt
All-Time Highs
Never have more trading-account
owners owed so much money, and
never have they had such a low
level of available funds from which
further to draw.
LEARN MORE »
v
Stocks Are
Overvalued
(based on dividend yields)
The Dow's annual dividend payout
has been less than 3%
for 235 out of the past 246
months. Prior to the bull market
that started in 1982, the longest
duration under 3% was just one
month, at the top in 1929.
LEARN MORE »
w
Fund Managers Are Maxed Out
The percentage of cash in mutual funds has been below 4% for all but
one of the past 70 months (a period of nearly six years). Prior to this
time, the longest such duration was only nine months, a streak that
ended in October 2007.
LEARN MORE »
x
Stocks at
Triple
Extreme
Previous triple manias
occurred in 1901/1906/1909 and 1965/1968/1972, and both
led to severe bear markets. This one is even bigger and has lasted longer.
LEARN MORE »
y
Stocks Rose on Low Volume
for Six Straight Years
Such a thing has never occurred before—one year, maybe, but not six.
LEARN MORE »
z
Unprecedented Divergence
On May 20, Robert Prechter published a rare interim issue
of The Elliott Wave Theorist to tell subscribers:
“Today something amazing happened: The Dow
Transports closed at a 6-month low on the same
day that the S&P 500 made an all-time intraday
high. I doubt this has ever happened before.
“The Dow Theory non-confirmation between the
Dow Industrials and Transports is now [more than]
six months old. This big a divergence, for this long
a time, is very bearish.”
Robert Prechter
President, Elliott Wave International
{
Advisor
Bearishness
at 38-Year Low
(optimism near record high)
The 30-week moving average of the
percentage of bears among stock
market advisors is at a 38-year low.
(Investors Intelligence data is
inverted to show optimism.)
LEARN MORE »
|
www.elliottwave.com/wave/bubbleintrouble
Click the link below for:
1. Detailed forecasts
2. Larger charts
3. Extended
Commentary

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8 Unprecedented Extremes Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble

  • 1. Indicate a Stock Market Bubble in Trouble Unprecedented Extremes
  • 2. It is amazing to read assertions from the Fed and others that the stock market is nowhere near being in a bubble. Several aspects of the financial environment are actually so extreme as to be unprecedented. Some indicate a bubble, and others a bubble in trouble.” June 19, 2015 | The Elliott Wave Theorist Robert Prechter President, Elliott Wave International
  • 3. Record debt in U.S. dollars Total dollar-denominated debt peaked at $52.7 trillion in early 2009. At the end of Q1 2015, it stands at $59 trillion, an unprecedented amount. LEARN MORE » u
  • 4. Margin Debt All-Time Highs Never have more trading-account owners owed so much money, and never have they had such a low level of available funds from which further to draw. LEARN MORE » v
  • 5. Stocks Are Overvalued (based on dividend yields) The Dow's annual dividend payout has been less than 3% for 235 out of the past 246 months. Prior to the bull market that started in 1982, the longest duration under 3% was just one month, at the top in 1929. LEARN MORE » w
  • 6. Fund Managers Are Maxed Out The percentage of cash in mutual funds has been below 4% for all but one of the past 70 months (a period of nearly six years). Prior to this time, the longest such duration was only nine months, a streak that ended in October 2007. LEARN MORE » x
  • 7. Stocks at Triple Extreme Previous triple manias occurred in 1901/1906/1909 and 1965/1968/1972, and both led to severe bear markets. This one is even bigger and has lasted longer. LEARN MORE » y
  • 8. Stocks Rose on Low Volume for Six Straight Years Such a thing has never occurred before—one year, maybe, but not six. LEARN MORE » z
  • 9. Unprecedented Divergence On May 20, Robert Prechter published a rare interim issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist to tell subscribers: “Today something amazing happened: The Dow Transports closed at a 6-month low on the same day that the S&P 500 made an all-time intraday high. I doubt this has ever happened before. “The Dow Theory non-confirmation between the Dow Industrials and Transports is now [more than] six months old. This big a divergence, for this long a time, is very bearish.” Robert Prechter President, Elliott Wave International {
  • 10. Advisor Bearishness at 38-Year Low (optimism near record high) The 30-week moving average of the percentage of bears among stock market advisors is at a 38-year low. (Investors Intelligence data is inverted to show optimism.) LEARN MORE » |
  • 11. www.elliottwave.com/wave/bubbleintrouble Click the link below for: 1. Detailed forecasts 2. Larger charts 3. Extended Commentary