FUTURE Perspective is a quarterly newsletter written by Elaine Cameron, head of Strategic Research & Trend Analysis at Burson-Marsteller EMEA. The newsletter focuses on trends that have concrete communication takeouts.

1. August 2009

2. CONSUMER/TECH: COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT ➔ The European Union's Emergence Project found that by
2010, 27 million Europeans will work from home at least part
Virtual Tourism of their work week, with employees in the United Kingdom
leading the trend. The number of jobs filled by telecommuters
Is Virtual Tourism the way of the future or is Home could grow nearly fourfold to 19 million by 2012.
set to be the new Abroad?
Insurance/Legal Issues
➔ Annually over 700 million people engage in international
travel. Tourism’s contribution to national economies goes ➔ Companies will need increasingly sophisticated insurance,
way beyond foreign exchange earnings and revenue from healthcare and legal liability policies to deal with an absent
taxes and employment. – home-based – and ageing workforce.
http://photoskml.googlepages.com/gallery.htm#sftour ➔ For the most part, it will be about adapting existing policy
➔ From being very beach-orientated, tourism has become types to the many specific life situations that older adults
more sophisticated and fragmented; particularly with the find themselves in. After all, a 70-year old man married to
advent of low cost airlines offering a gateway to previously
inaccessible destinations. HR: 40-year old woman needs just as much insurance as a
40-year old man.
➔ Technology presents both an opportunity and a threat to Survival of the Eldest ➔ Laws about age discrimination will become more robust.
tourism as increasingly savvy travelers cut out travel agents
An ageing workforce will bring employers a Mental Agility/Memory Protection
and trawl the net for information on destinations, climate,
ratings and the best deals.
multitude of issues to deal with, not least ensuring
that brain power matches staying power. ➔ The elderly, being the most resistant to change, will have to
➔ This is already changing the whole competitive framework cope with radically and rapidly evolving technologies and
but imagine a time where tourists choose NOT to visit a ➔ The world's 65 and older population is expected to reach environments.
country with a bad ecological record or where the damage 1.53 billion by the year 2050, three times more than the ➔ There will be an increased need for cognitive training and
caused by long haul flights completely transforms our travel 516 million alive today. By mid-century, 16 percent of the tools that will ensure that the silver workforce maintains its
options. When it is no longer possible to hop on a plane and world's population is expected to be 65 or older. mental fitness as well as keeps up to date with technologies
be on another continent 9 or 12 hours later because the that will be evolving exponentially.
environmental fall-out can no longer be countenanced.
➔ The 85-and-older group will increase from 40 million in
2009 in the world to 219 million by mid-century.
➔ To save the planet we may even need to limit our tourism COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
➔ By 2050, 100 countries will have an older population
to the virtual world. This could provide opportunities for accounting for 20 percent or more of their country, with
Second Life, GoogleEarth or any number of new start ups Europe remaining the world's oldest region.
able to offer experiential products and services.
Flexibility/Human Rights
➔ On the other hand, that would decimate travel operators,
airlines and the hotel industry. And Home would have to ➔ As the workforce ages, employers will have to build
become the new Abroad. flexibility into working hours to allow workers to build in
more rest, as well as the possibility of absences for care
giving to their own even more elderly parents.
http://games.lumosity.com/chimp.html

3. HEALTHCARE: ➔ Increased longevity is a triumph for public health and the
result of social and economic development. Nevertheless,
➔ It has the potential to form a link between business ethics,
business basics, consumer engagement and bottom line
Age shall not many individuals will face, as they age, the risk of having at
least one chronic disease, such as diabetes, hypertension or
benefits, while also benefiting the health and prosperity
of the wider community.
wither them osteo-muscular conditions.
➔ Consumers in the UK are now purchasing a product
The elderly population will also shape healthcare ➔ On a positive note, looming on the horizon are some associated with a good cause every second.
the world over. very promising drug discoveries. The biotech industry is
developing new therapies that can cure such diseases as ➔ Cause-related marketing can increase sales as much as
➔ 65% of health care costs are spent on over 65 yr olds. Alzheimer’s — treatments that are bound to lead to the 74 percent in certain consumer-goods categories, and
world’s first “lifestyle” drugs that deal with forgetfulness. consumers spend twice as long looking at cause-related
➔ 75% of pharma shares are owned by the over 65s. ads than generic corporate ones.
➔ The pharma industry is owned by older people for older COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT ➔ In 2009 Tesco announced staff and customers had raised
people and yet you would be forgiven for not realising this. over £6.1 million for their Charity of the Year, Marie Curie
Cancer Care. This total was the result of 14 months of
➔ Media headlines shriek of abuse, neglect or carelessness, fundraising in stores, distribution centres and offices across
inappropriate medication, malnutrition and a lack of dignity, the UK. The amount raised breaks all previous fundraising
privacy and confidentiality. records for a Tesco Charity of the Year partnership and –
significantly – comes despite the recent economic downturn.
The reality is that:
• Treatment for minor strokes is often covertly rationed for
people over 80 years of age. COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
http://tiny.cc/LywZo
• Angina sufferers are less likely to see a specialist or to
have tests if they are over 65.
CSR:
• Priorities for health and social care restrict targets
for reducing heart disease, strokes and cancer to
people under 75.
It’s good to give
As consumers come to grips with the new world
• Invitations to breast screening stop for women over 70. order post the global banking crisis and world
recession, they are increasingly looking to http://tiny.cc/ejc3C
• Older people tend to be excluded from drug trials. organisations that share their concerns and
reflect that in their marketing.
➔ In addition, the majority of older people will be living in
developing countries that are often the least prepared to ➔ Cause Related Marketing is not philanthropy, nor is it
confront the challenges of rapidly ageing societies. altruism; it is consumer-led and market driven. Used
correctly and efficiently, Cause Related Marketing can
also impact directly on the bottom line.

4. ENERGY/LOGISTICS: ➔ These issues are just one part of the complex issue of energy
security. Beyond the threat of terrorism, energy security is
CONTACT:
Oil terrorism becoming an issue of increasing importance to the United
States and its European allies, as some energy producers are
Elaine Cameron
The possibility of energy terrorism - attacks on the showing a tendency to use oil and gas as political leverage.
Manager
world’s energy infrastructure - may not generate the Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA
same attention as potential chemical or biological or ➔ The world’s vulnerability to supply disruptions will increase elaine.cameron@bm.com
nuclear terrorism. But the economic implications of as international trade expands. Recent geopolitical
developments and surging energy prices have brought that
such attacks are potentially enormous. Stéphanie Bonnet
message dramatically home.
Managing Director
➔ Many believe that there is a ‘‘terror premium’’ factored into ➔ Flourishing trade will strengthen the mutual dependence Strategic Research & Innovation EMEA
the price of a barrel of oil and that oil terrorism is emerging
among exporting and importing countries. But it will also stephanie.bonnet@bm.com
as a major threat to the global economy.
exacerbate the risks that wells or pipelines could be closed
or tankers blocked by piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents.
➔ The vulnerability of Saudi Arabia to energy terrorism http://www.burson-marsteller.eu
is a particular concern. Saudi Arabia is the world’s most
important oil-producing country, being the largest exporter
and the only country with significant excess production COMMUNICATIONS TAKEOUT
capacity. Over the last few years there have been several
deadly attacks on Western oil workers. These have disrupted
oil markets and had the effect of driving up insurance
premiums.
➔ Pipelines, which carry one-half the world’s oil and most of
its natural gas, are generally built above ground, making
them common targets for terrorists and insurgents. There
is concern that insurgents, having gained expertise from
attacking Iraqi pipelines, will transfer their skills elsewhere.
➔ Global shipping “chokepoints” [such as the Strait of
Malacca] are vulnerabilities in the world’s energy system.
http://tiny.cc/eNsBh
Various troubling scenarios are possible, including a terrorist
hijacking of an oil tanker, to be turned into a floating bomb
that could be detonated in a busy seaport.