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2011 China Public Affairs Dialogue

Trade, Investment and China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
State of Trade
The 12th Five-Year Plan
 It will guide Government actions through
  2015, so it requires our attention

 Four notable commitments in the plan
    – Increase domestic consumption and social welfare
    – Create a more balanced economy, less dependent
      on exports, more geographically balanced
    – Encourage domestic innovation, both in technology
      and services sector
    – Develop strategic emerging industries
        • Especially new energy, new materials and alternative
          fuel vehicles


 Our focus is on the implications of this plan
  on investment, both inbound by MNCs and
  outbound by Chinese companies
About the Survey
               Aims and Objectives of the 3rd Dialogue
                   – How current and emerging trends impact the practice of corporate
                     public affairs in Mainland China


               Trade, Investment and China’s 12th Five Year Plan
                   – The impact of China’s 12th FYP on the prospects for enhanced
                     Sino-global trade relations

               Methodology
                   –   155 Respondents
                   –   Online between November 3 – 24
                   –   Senior corporate and government representatives
                   –   China, Asia, US, Europe
                   –   Country Director, Managing Director, Chief Investment Officer,
                       Vice President of Government Relations
The Future Looks Bright

                  Sense of future economic and trade
              development between China, Europe and US
                                                                                                          Despite global economic
                                                                                                          uncertainty and fears
        Very Optimistic                  11%                                                              over the sustainability of
                                                                                                          China’s economic
              Optimistic                                                                                  performance, senior
                                                                                     66%                  management in global
       Very Pessimistic           0%                                                                      industry and commerce
                                                                                                          remain optimistic about
             Pessimistic                        20%                                                       future economic and
                                                                                                          trade developments
           Hold no view             3%                                                                    between Europe, US and
                                                                                                          China.
                             0      10     20      30      40      50      60       70

Q7. Given recent developments in economic, political and commercial relations between China, Europe and
the United States, how do you feel about future economic and trade developments between the countries?
Investment & The Five-Year Plan
            Opportunities abound for inbound and outbound investment

 80

 70
                  77%
                                                   68%                                                    Strong agreement that
 60                                                                                                       current reforms will both
                                                                                                          enhance business
 50
                                                                                                          opportunities for China in
 40                                                                                   Agree               the West, and enhance
                                                                                      Disagree            business opportunities
 30
                                                             28%                                          for international business
 20                        23%                                                                            in China
 10

  0
         Enhance opportunities            Enhance opportunities
         for China business in               for international
               the West                     business in China
Q12. The focus on investment and economic development set out in the 12th Fiver Year Plan will: 1-10
(1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. D: Enhance the opportunities for China business in the West; E:
Enhance the opportunities for international business in China.
Everyone Wants in on China
1st in Average Rating                               China                          45% Ranked as
of Importance                                                                      “Most Important”
                                                    1.84

                        2nd                          US                           30%                             China “most important” in
                                                     2.18                                                         strategic economic and trade
                                                                                                                  terms.
                        3rd            Asia (other than China)                     20%                            Asked to rank from 1-5 (1 being
                                                 2.63                                                             most important) China rates
                                                                                                                  significantly ahead of US and
                        4th                          EU                            9%                             Asia.
                                                     2.72

                        5th                        LatAm                           4%
                                                    3.67

                        6th                         Africa                         3%
                                                    4.41
  Q8. Please rank the following nations/region in terms of their strategic economic and trade importance to
  your country at the current time. Rank 1st (most important) to 5th (least important), marketing a tick in the
  not applicable box for the country/region where your company is headquartered.
Inbound Investment
Inbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan

          Greater engagement by Chinese government in
           the development of industry and economy is
                           beckoning                                                                  Over three quarters
                                                                                                      agree that objectives set
                                                                                                      out in the 12th Five-Year
                                                                                                      Plan will lead to greater
                     23%
                                                                                                      engagement by the
                                                                                                      government.

                                                                                 Agree
                                                 77%                                                  This could be construed
                                                                                 Disagree
                                                                                                      as more state control of
                                                                                                      enterprise, necessitating
                                                                                                      the need for greater PA
                                                                                                      and GR capabilities.


Q9. Do you believe that the inbound and outbound investment and economic development objectives set
out in the 12th Five Year Plan will: 1-10 (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. D Lead to greater
engagement by China’s government in the development of industry and the economy in that country.
Inbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan
                                                          Obstacles to achieving objectives for foreign direct investment
     A lack of awareness among international
business about navigating China's stakeholder
               and communications landscape
                                                                                                                                        81%
                                                                                     19%
     A lack of awareness among international
 business about navigating China’s regulatory                                                                                         78%
                    and political environment                                         22%

    The emergence of indigenous innovation,                                                                               64%               Agree
  domestic consumption and the expansion of
                                                                                                     35%                                    Disagree
             China's manufacturing economy

        A pro-China approach to business and                                                                                    73%
                         investment selection                                              25%

                  The regulatory and legislative                                                                                            85%
                 environment in mainland China                                15%

                                                         0          10          20         30          40       50   60   70     80         90
  Q10. The obstacles to achieving the stated objectives in respect of foreign direct investment in China are:
  1-10 scale, 1=Strongly Disagree, 10=Strongly Agree
Outbound Investment
Outbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan

                 Assisting Chinese corporations as they
                               go global


                              10%                                                                                9 in 10 believe the
                                                                                                                 outbound investment
                                                                                                                 objectives set in the Plan
                                                                                                                 will help Chinese
                                                                                        Agree                    companies expand
                                                90%                                     Disagree                 globally




Q9. Do you believe that the inbound and outbound investment and economic development objectives set
out in the 12th Five Year Plan will: 1-10 (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. B: Assist the development of
Chinese business seeking to “go global”.
Outbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan
                                                             Obstacles to achieving objectives for overseas direct investment by
                                                             China
           A lack of awareness among Chinese
          business about navigating the West’s                                                                                                83%
    stakeholder and communications landscape
                                                                                17%
           A lack of awareness among Chinese
          business about navigating the West’s                                                                                               80%
            regulatory and political environment
                                                                                    20%
                                                                                                                                               Agree
          The unequal application of regulation                                                                              59%
                                                                                                                                               Disagree
                    and legislation in respect of
                                                                                                           39%
          international versus local companies
                                                                                                                                        76%
                        Nationalism and currency
                     valuation/protectionist issues                                     23%

A negative perception about China’s investment                                                                                                83%
                        motives and strategies
                                                                                17%

                                                         0          10         20          30         40           50   60         70   80         90
    Q11. The obstacles to achieving the stated objectives in respect of overseas direct investment by China are:
    1-10 scale, 1=Strongly Disagree, 10=Strongly Agree
GR Takeaways
The Business, PA and GA Dimension
                                                         Focus on investment and economic development will:


Make it more important for foreign companies
                                                                                                                                91%
       in China to have structured government
relations strategies operating as core aspects                       8%
                          of business planning


                                                                                                                         69%
                                                                                                                                 Agree
Increase corporate government relations and                                                                                      Disagree
                        public affairs activity
                                                                                 20%


                                                                                                35%
       Make it more difficult to develop and
                                                                                                                   62%
implement a China-wide GR and PA strategy


                                                        0                  20                  40             60           80    100
  Q12. The focus on investment and economic development set out in the    12th Fiver Year Plan will: 1-10
  (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. A: Make it more important for foreign companies in China to have
  structured government relations strategies operating as core aspects of business planning, B. Increase my
  company’s government relations and public affairs activity; C. Make it more difficult to develop and
  implement a China-wide government relations and public affairs strategy.
Advice for Inbound Investors

                 • Establish when a problem
 Relationships     doesn’t exist
    Matter       • Don’t just focus on the top
                                                               • Be respectful of
                                                 You are the     decision-makers
                                                   Guest       • Avoid public criticisms

   Beyond        • Provincial gov’t bodies can
                   count as much as central
   Beijing         gov’t

                                                  Repeat,      • Ministries and agencies
                                                  Repeat,        can overlap
                 • Being well known in a home     Repeat       • Cast a wide net
                   market does not equate to
   Be Local        awareness in China
                 • Global approaches may not
                   apply
Advice for Outbound Investors

                 • Remaining silent and not
    Define         telling your story is not a
  Yourself, or     strategy
  Others Will    • Overseas clients buy the
                   country first, then the product                 • Prepare an on-going diet
                                                     The Media       to keep the media well
                                                     are Hungry      fed

   Engage the    • Meet with local management,
                   employees, suppliers,
  Stakeholders     community leaders
                                                     Put Feet in
                                                                   • Think locally, design
                                                       Target        personally, brand
                                                      Market’s       domestically
   Anticipate    • There can be frequently hostile
                   constituencies                      Shoes
   Criticism     • Other cultures can have more
                   open and critical discussions
For more information

Craig Hoy: craighoy@publicaffairsasia.com
Mark Hass: mark.hass@edelman.com

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2011 China Public Affairs Dialogue

  • 1. 2011 China Public Affairs Dialogue Trade, Investment and China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
  • 3. The 12th Five-Year Plan  It will guide Government actions through 2015, so it requires our attention  Four notable commitments in the plan – Increase domestic consumption and social welfare – Create a more balanced economy, less dependent on exports, more geographically balanced – Encourage domestic innovation, both in technology and services sector – Develop strategic emerging industries • Especially new energy, new materials and alternative fuel vehicles  Our focus is on the implications of this plan on investment, both inbound by MNCs and outbound by Chinese companies
  • 4. About the Survey  Aims and Objectives of the 3rd Dialogue – How current and emerging trends impact the practice of corporate public affairs in Mainland China  Trade, Investment and China’s 12th Five Year Plan – The impact of China’s 12th FYP on the prospects for enhanced Sino-global trade relations  Methodology – 155 Respondents – Online between November 3 – 24 – Senior corporate and government representatives – China, Asia, US, Europe – Country Director, Managing Director, Chief Investment Officer, Vice President of Government Relations
  • 5. The Future Looks Bright Sense of future economic and trade development between China, Europe and US Despite global economic uncertainty and fears Very Optimistic 11% over the sustainability of China’s economic Optimistic performance, senior 66% management in global Very Pessimistic 0% industry and commerce remain optimistic about Pessimistic 20% future economic and trade developments Hold no view 3% between Europe, US and China. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Q7. Given recent developments in economic, political and commercial relations between China, Europe and the United States, how do you feel about future economic and trade developments between the countries?
  • 6. Investment & The Five-Year Plan Opportunities abound for inbound and outbound investment 80 70 77% 68% Strong agreement that 60 current reforms will both enhance business 50 opportunities for China in 40 Agree the West, and enhance Disagree business opportunities 30 28% for international business 20 23% in China 10 0 Enhance opportunities Enhance opportunities for China business in for international the West business in China Q12. The focus on investment and economic development set out in the 12th Fiver Year Plan will: 1-10 (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. D: Enhance the opportunities for China business in the West; E: Enhance the opportunities for international business in China.
  • 7. Everyone Wants in on China 1st in Average Rating China 45% Ranked as of Importance “Most Important” 1.84 2nd US 30% China “most important” in 2.18 strategic economic and trade terms. 3rd Asia (other than China) 20% Asked to rank from 1-5 (1 being 2.63 most important) China rates significantly ahead of US and 4th EU 9% Asia. 2.72 5th LatAm 4% 3.67 6th Africa 3% 4.41 Q8. Please rank the following nations/region in terms of their strategic economic and trade importance to your country at the current time. Rank 1st (most important) to 5th (least important), marketing a tick in the not applicable box for the country/region where your company is headquartered.
  • 9. Inbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan Greater engagement by Chinese government in the development of industry and economy is beckoning Over three quarters agree that objectives set out in the 12th Five-Year Plan will lead to greater 23% engagement by the government. Agree 77% This could be construed Disagree as more state control of enterprise, necessitating the need for greater PA and GR capabilities. Q9. Do you believe that the inbound and outbound investment and economic development objectives set out in the 12th Five Year Plan will: 1-10 (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. D Lead to greater engagement by China’s government in the development of industry and the economy in that country.
  • 10. Inbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan Obstacles to achieving objectives for foreign direct investment A lack of awareness among international business about navigating China's stakeholder and communications landscape 81% 19% A lack of awareness among international business about navigating China’s regulatory 78% and political environment 22% The emergence of indigenous innovation, 64% Agree domestic consumption and the expansion of 35% Disagree China's manufacturing economy A pro-China approach to business and 73% investment selection 25% The regulatory and legislative 85% environment in mainland China 15% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q10. The obstacles to achieving the stated objectives in respect of foreign direct investment in China are: 1-10 scale, 1=Strongly Disagree, 10=Strongly Agree
  • 12. Outbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan Assisting Chinese corporations as they go global 10% 9 in 10 believe the outbound investment objectives set in the Plan will help Chinese Agree companies expand 90% Disagree globally Q9. Do you believe that the inbound and outbound investment and economic development objectives set out in the 12th Five Year Plan will: 1-10 (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. B: Assist the development of Chinese business seeking to “go global”.
  • 13. Outbound Investment & The Five-Year Plan Obstacles to achieving objectives for overseas direct investment by China A lack of awareness among Chinese business about navigating the West’s 83% stakeholder and communications landscape 17% A lack of awareness among Chinese business about navigating the West’s 80% regulatory and political environment 20% Agree The unequal application of regulation 59% Disagree and legislation in respect of 39% international versus local companies 76% Nationalism and currency valuation/protectionist issues 23% A negative perception about China’s investment 83% motives and strategies 17% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Q11. The obstacles to achieving the stated objectives in respect of overseas direct investment by China are: 1-10 scale, 1=Strongly Disagree, 10=Strongly Agree
  • 15. The Business, PA and GA Dimension Focus on investment and economic development will: Make it more important for foreign companies 91% in China to have structured government relations strategies operating as core aspects 8% of business planning 69% Agree Increase corporate government relations and Disagree public affairs activity 20% 35% Make it more difficult to develop and 62% implement a China-wide GR and PA strategy 0 20 40 60 80 100 Q12. The focus on investment and economic development set out in the 12th Fiver Year Plan will: 1-10 (1=strongly disagree 10=strongly agree. A: Make it more important for foreign companies in China to have structured government relations strategies operating as core aspects of business planning, B. Increase my company’s government relations and public affairs activity; C. Make it more difficult to develop and implement a China-wide government relations and public affairs strategy.
  • 16. Advice for Inbound Investors • Establish when a problem Relationships doesn’t exist Matter • Don’t just focus on the top • Be respectful of You are the decision-makers Guest • Avoid public criticisms Beyond • Provincial gov’t bodies can count as much as central Beijing gov’t Repeat, • Ministries and agencies Repeat, can overlap • Being well known in a home Repeat • Cast a wide net market does not equate to Be Local awareness in China • Global approaches may not apply
  • 17. Advice for Outbound Investors • Remaining silent and not Define telling your story is not a Yourself, or strategy Others Will • Overseas clients buy the country first, then the product • Prepare an on-going diet The Media to keep the media well are Hungry fed Engage the • Meet with local management, employees, suppliers, Stakeholders community leaders Put Feet in • Think locally, design Target personally, brand Market’s domestically Anticipate • There can be frequently hostile constituencies Shoes Criticism • Other cultures can have more open and critical discussions
  • 18. For more information Craig Hoy: craighoy@publicaffairsasia.com Mark Hass: mark.hass@edelman.com