Monthly statistical e-bulletin comprising about 30 tables and some charts with the latest available economic/financial market indicators, both Indian and Global.
2. Table of Contents
Contents Page
1. Important Rates to Remember ………… 3
2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators ………… 4
3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators ………… 6
4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators ………… 7
5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates ………… 9
6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates ………… 11
7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets ………… 14
8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows ………… 17
9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets ………… 20
10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators ………… 22
11. Global Economy — Stock Indices ………… 23
12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices 24
Special Feature
Highlights of the Union Budget 2012-2013 25
www.ecofin-surge.co.in
E-UpDates April 2012 2 Surge Research Support
3. GDP IIP*
2011-12* 6.90% Jan-12 1.10%
2010-11 8.40% Jan-11 7.50%
*Advanced Estimates *New Series with Base : 2004-05=100.
As on 30-Mar-12 31-Mar-11 As on 30-Mar-12 31-Mar-11
Bank rate 9.50% 6.00% CRR 4.75% 6.00%
Repo rate 8.50% 6.75% Base Rate 10.00-10.75% 8.25-9.50%
Reverse repo 7.50% 5.75% CMR 6.75-15.0% 7.85-9.50%
Inflation (WPI) Oil Price (World Average)
Feb-12 6.95% Mar-12 117.8
Feb-11 9.54% Mar-11 108.6
US$ per barrel
$/Rupee Rate Purchasing Managers Index March
30-Mar-12 51.15 HSBC Markit Mnfg. PMI 54.7
31-Mar-11 44.65 HSBC Markit Services PMI 52.3
RBI Reference rate
For global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/publications.html
For explanations visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.html
E-UpDates April 2012 3 Surge Research Support
4. Growth Indicators
GDP Growth Rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY
2011-12 7.7* 6.9* 6.1 6.9 (AE)*
2010-11 8.5* 7.6* 8.3* 7.8 8.4 (QE)*
GDP[at Constant(2004-05) prices] Q3 Rs.Crore YoY Growth Q3 Rs.Crore YoY Growth
2010-11* (Share in 2011-12* (Share in
GDP) GDP)
(%) (%)
1 Agriculture, Forestry &
Fishing 224,044 11.0 230,168 2.7
2 Mining & Quarrying 28,200 6.1 27,334 -3.1
3 Manufacturing
194,435 7.8 195,228 0.4
4 Electricity, Gas & Water
Supply. 22,480 3.8 24,509 9.0
5 Construction
96,000 8.7 102,887 7.2
6 Trade, Hotels, Transport
and Communication 330,573 9.8 361,074 9.2
7 Financing, Insurance,
Real Estate & Business
Services. 214,205 11.2 233,537 9.0
8 Community, Social &
Personal Services. 152,857 -0.8 164,866 7.9
9 GDP at factor cost
(1 to 8) 1,262,794 8.3 1,339,603 6.1
10 Private final consumption
expenditure
818,122 7.6 (60.4) 869,193 6.2 (60.4)
11 Government final
consumption expenditure
168,576 4.7 (12.5) 175,952 4.4 (12.2)
12 Gross fixed capital
formation 437,564 11.1 (32.3) 432,169 -1.2 (30.0)
13 Changes in stocks 48,036 (3.5) 47,820 (3.3)
14 Valuables 29,981 (2.2) 32,909 (2.3)
15 Exports
316,694 28.1 (23.4) 358,160 13.1 (24.9)
16 Less Imports 401,587 14.2 (29.7) 471,062 17.3 (32.7)
17 Discrepancies -63,628 (-4.7) -6,222 (-0.4)
18 GDP at market price
(10 to 17) 1,353,757 10.1 (100) 1,438,918 6.2 (100)
*Estimates based on the New series of IIP. QE: Quick Estimates; AE: Advanced Estimates.
E-UpDates April 2012 4 Surge Research Support
5. 2010-11 Rs.Crore YoY Growth 2011-12 Rs.Crore YoY Growth
(QE)* (%) (AE)* (%)
18 GDP at market price
5,236,823 9.6 5,627,685 7.5
19 Net Indirect Taxes (Less
Subsidies ) 350,869 405,658
9 GDP at factor cost
(18-19) 4,885,954 8.4 5,222,027 6.9
20 Net factor income from
abroad -52,776 -50,489
21 Gross national income
at factor cost 4,833,178 7.9 5,171,538 7.0
(9 + 20)
23 Net national
product/National
Income at factor cost
(Less Depreciation) 4,268,715 7.8 4,568,249 7.0
24 Population (in million)
1186 1202
25 Per capita income (Rs.)
(23/24) 35993 6.4 38005 5.6
Jan-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 FY2011-12 * FY2010-11*
Production Index Index 2004-05 =100 Change (YoY, %)
(Index of Industrial
Production) 187.9 175.9 6.8 4.0 8.3
1. Mining 137.2 141.0 -2.7 -2.6 6.3
2. Manufacturing 202.4 186.5 8.5 4.4 8.9
3. Electricity 151.1 146.4 3.2 8.8 5.3
*April-January. The base year of IIP has been revised by the CSO from 1993-94 to 2004-05.
200
190 IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100) Mining &
Quarrying (141.75)
180
169.0
170
159.3 Manufacturing
160 152.9 (755.27)
150
179.9
140 Electricity (103.16)
168.9
161.3
130
148.8
136.7
120
130.8
125.5
General Index
124.7
124.5
110 (1000.0)
100
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
E-UpDates April 2012 5 Surge Research Support
6. Inflation
Wholesale Price Index
All Primary Non-food Crude
(Base: 2004-05=100) Food Articles Manufactured
Commodities Articles Articles Petroleum
(Inflation %) Products
December - 2011 156.9 (7.47) 197.9 190.8 178.6 300.0 140.6
January - 2012 157.7 (6.55) 199.7 191.4 182.8 304.5 141.2
February - 2012 158.4 (6.95) 201.5 192.3 186.7 304.5 141.7
Build up of inflation in the financial year so far is 5.95% compared to a build up of 8.66% in the corresponding period of the previous year.
All India
General Index Rural Areas Urban Areas Rural Agricultural
Industrial
(All Groups (All Groups) (All Groups) Labourers Labourers
Workers Base
combined) Base Base Base 1986- Base 1986-
2001=100
Consumer Price Index Base 2010=100 2010=100 87=100 87=100
(Inflation %) 2010=100
December - 2011 113.6 (F) 114.5 (F) 112.3 (F) 197 (6.49) 619 (6.72) 618 (6.37)
January - 2012 114.0(F) 114.9 (F) 112.8(F) 198 (5.32) 619 (5.27) 618 (4.92)
February - 2012 114.6(P)(8.83) 115.4 (P)(8.36) 113.5(P)(9.45) 199 (7.57) 623 (6.68) 621 (6.34)
F: Final; P: Provisional.
WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series
2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
CPI Inflation-February 2012 Rural Urban Combined
Cereals & Pdcts. 2.95 0.69 2.40
Pulses & Pdcts. 4.45 3.59 4.17
Oils etc 11.87 14.52 12.76
Egg, Meat & Fish 10.68 10.48 10.62
Milk & Pdcts. 15.88 15.31 15.76
Vegetables -4.83 -4.27 -4.73
Food & Beverages 6.33 7.17 6.62
Fuel & Light 13.05 12.19 12.78
Clothing etc 12.68 9.45 13.22
E-UpDates April 2012 6 Surge Research Support
7. COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crores)
March 31 January February#
2011 2012 2012
M3 6,499,548 7,159,470 7,226,270
% change during the month 2.21 (0.54) 0.93
% change since March 31 16.49 10.15 11.18
(A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4)
1 Currency with the public 914,197 996,650 1,015,980
% change during the month 0.95 1.91 1.94
% change since March 31 19.03 9.02 11.13
2 Demand deposits with banks 717,660 664,540 667,340
% change during the month 6.51 (6.32) 0.42
% change since March 31 0.49 (7.40) (7.01)
3 Time deposits with banks 4,863,979 5,495,600 5,541,880
% change during the month 1.84 (0.24) 0.84
% change since March 31 18.82 12.99 13.94
4 Other deposits with RBI 3,713 2,680 1,060
% change during the month 2.63 17.03 (60.45)
% change since March 31 (1.90) (27.82) (71.45)
(B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9)
5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 1,982,771 2,301,010 2,326,600
% change during the month 6.67 2.95 1.11
% change since March 31 18.85 16.05 17.34
i RBI's credit 396,555 518,400 488,370
% change during the month 32.09 15.18 (5.79)
% change since March 31 80.07 30.73 23.15
ii Other banks' credit 1,586,216 1,782,610 1,838,230
% change during the month 1.77 (0.14) 3.12
% change since March 31 9.54 12.38 15.89
6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 4,235,406 4,669,320 4,726,820
% change during the month 3.81 (0.27) 1.23
% change since March 31 21.59 10.24 11.60
i RBI's credit 2,164 3,260 3,430
% change during the month 37.83 (0.31) 5.21
% change since March 31 62.95 50.65 58.50
ii Other banks' credit 4,233,242 4,666,060 4,723,390
% change during the month 3.80 (0.27) 1.23
% change since March 31 21.58 10.22 11.58
7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking
1,393,327 1,481,270 1,461,960
sector
% change during the month (0.24) (6.87) (1.30)
% change since March 31 9.28 6.31 4.93
8 Government's currency liabilities to the
12,724 13,720 13,720
public
% change during the month 4.71 - -
% change since March 31 16.53 7.83 7.83
9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii)
1,124,680 1,305,850 1,302,830
% change during the month 13.79 (1.26) (0.23)
% change since March 31 31.10 16.11 15.84
i RBI's NNML 368,274 549,610 537,570
% change during the month (0.87) (11.81) (2.19)
% change since March 31 18.68 49.24 45.97
ii Other bank's NNML(Residual) 756,406 756,240 765,260
% change during the month 22.62 8.15 1.19
% change since March 31 38.13 (0.02) 1.17
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers. (ii) # data are of February 24, 2012.
E-UpDates April 2012 7 Surge Research Support
8. COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crore)
March February March
2011 2012 2012
Reserve Money : 1,376,881 1,441,000 1,414,830
% change during the month 7.64 0.75 (1.82)
% change since March 31 19.18 4.66 2.76
(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3)
1 Currency in circulation 949,659 1,057,660 1,072,220
% change during the month 0.93 1.87 1.38
% change since March 31 18.83 11.37 12.91
2 Banker's deposits with RBI 423,509 380,070 340,850
% change during the month 26.58 (2.36) (10.32)
% change since March 31 20.21 (10.26) (19.52)
3 "Other" deposits with RBI 3,713 3,270 1,760
% change during the month 2.63 22.01 (46.18)
% change since March 31 -1.90 (11.93) (52.60)
(B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8)
4 Net RBI credit to Government 396,555 543,600 517,100
% change during the month 32.09 4.86 (4.87)
% change since March 31 80.07 37.08 30.40
RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector
7,324 8,430 12,750
5
% change during the month 46.60 (32.83) 51.25
% change since March 31 193.31 15.10 74.09
5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 5,159 4,970 8,790
% change during the month 50.58 (46.50) 76.86
% change since March 31 341.32 (3.66) 70.38
5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 2,165 3,460 3,960
% change during the month 37.90 6.13 14.45
% change since March 31 63.03 59.82 82.91
6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 1,328,553 1,421,460 1,462,780
% change during the month -0.35 (0.96) 2.91
% change since March 31 7.84 6.99 10.10
7 Govt's Currency Liabilities to the Public 12,724 13,720 13,720
% change during the month 4.71 - -
% change since March 31 16.53 7.83 7.83
8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 368,274 546,200 591,520
% change during the month -0.87 (0.62) 8.30
% change since March 31 18.68 48.31 60.62
Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.
E-UpDates April 2012 8 Surge Research Support
13. Weighted Average YTMs
Weighted Average YTMs
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
10.0
10.5
8.0
8.2
8.4
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9.8
10.0
July 2012
10.0
April 2012 9.85
December 2012
10.4
May 2012 9.22
April 2013
9.9
November 2014 8.19
June 2013 8.25
10.4
June 2015
E-UpDates April 2012
December 2014 September 2015 8.22
9.9
October 2015 8.13
December 2014
9.5
April 2016 8.33
January 2015
9.5
August 2016 8.34
February 2015
9.7
January 2017 8.35
June 2015
9.8
July 2017 8.47
September 2016 August 2017 8.23
9.4
December 2016 April 2018 8.44
9.6
April 2018 8.35
13
June 2017
9.8
January 2020 8.51
December 2017
9.3
January 2020 8.40
December 2018
9.4
April 2021 8.49
Maturity Year
June 2019 Maturity Year 8.25
9.2
May 2021
Debt Market Yields
June 2019 November 2021 8.36
9.2
August 2022 8.40
December 2020
9.3
Yields of GSecs Traded in March 2012
September 2022 8.46
July 2021
November 2024 8.39
August 2021
10.1 10.1
February 2027 8.43
Yields of Benchmark Corporate Bonds (AAA) - March 2012
November 2021 8.51
9.3
August 2027
December 2022 September 2027 8.54
9.1
8.63
Surge Research Support
December 2030
December 2023
9.2
February 2032 8.51
December 2024 9.3
August 2032 8.63
December 2025
9.3
August 2034 8.42
March 2026
9.2
July 2040 8.61
August 2026 December 2041 8.64
9.3
14. Equity Market Turnover
BSE Equity Market BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100)
Average
Daily Market
No of co.s No. of scrips Turnover Turnover Capitalisation Month-
Month/Year listed* traded (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr)* High Low Closing P/E P/B Div Yield
Jan-12 5115 3016 52339.8 2379.1 6053984.4 17258.97 15358.02 17193.55 17.09 3.30 1.56
Feb-12 5122 3101 68912.8 3445.6 6351265.5 18523.78 17061.55 17752.68 18.32 3.55 1.44
Mar-12 5133 3064 61694.1 2804.3 6209534.6 18040.69 16920.61 17404.2 17.85 3.46 1.47
NSE Capital Market Segment S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100)
Average
Daily Market
No of co.s No. of scrips Turnover Turnover Capitalisation Month-
Month/Year listed* traded (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr)* High Low Closing P/E P/B Div Yield
Jan-12 1641 1721 236872.0 10767.0 5937039.0 5217.00 4588.05 5199.25 17.71 2.89 1.56
Feb-12 1644 1649 327808.0 16390.0 6233250.0 5629.95 5159.00 5385.20 19.09 3.06 1.46
Mar-12 1646 1807 272482.0 12386.0 6096518.0 5499.40 5135.95 5295.55 18.74 3.01 1.50
*End of the Month.
Derivatives Turnover
BSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average
Notional Notional Daily
No. of Turnover (Rs. No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover Turnover
Month / Year contracts cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.)
Jan-12 1899450 46638.88 64293 1939.51 829122 20576.78 .. .. 2792865 69155.17 3143.42
Feb-12 1268794 34075.22 46795 1730.21 16386797 398579.00 1063 34.44 17703449 434418.80 21720.94
Mar-12 1434598 37677.91 52032 1488.20 7167217 189304.23 9798 248.00 8663645 228718.34 10396.29
NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment
Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average
Notional Notional Daily
No. of Turnover (Rs. No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover Turnover
Month / Year contracts cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.)
Jan-12 10856475 250737.87 13958030 350848.12 62424041 1542542.16 4157796 107359.31 91396342 2251487.46 102340.34
Feb-12 11289436 291138.4 15306021 451869.29 65316148 1777219.75 4028055 121550.66 95939660 2641778.08 132088.90
Mar-12 13492062 337971.8 13262789 384126.28 80472606 2156836.57 3335448 100296.38 110562905 2979231.03 135419.59
E-UpDates April 2012 14 Surge Research Support