Presentation by Astrid Koch, EU Delegation's Science Counselor, on "Hurricanes and Coastal Hazards"

1. Summer Seminar –
Hurricanes & Coastal Hazards
Dr. Astrid-Christina Koch
Science Counselor
EU Delegation to the United States in
Washington

2. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !

3. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !

4. EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement
European Commision National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Joint Research Centre (JRC) Administration (NOAA)
• NOAA and the European Commission’s Joint Research
Centre signed an implementation arrangement on
scientific and other cooperative activities in the fields of
climate, weather, oceans and coasts
• Umbrella agreement is the EU-US Science &Technology
Agreement of 1998 signed by the Department of State
and the European Commission

5. EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Joint Research Centre (JRC) Adminstration (NOAA)
Dominique Ristori Jane Lubchenco

6. EU-U.S. Implementing Arrangement
National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Joint Research Centre (JRC)
Dominique Ristori
Adminstration (NOAA)
Jane Lubchenco
Joint priorities:
• Earth observation and data sharing
• Climate prediction and monitoring
• Regional/global modeling of coastal hazards
• Space weather prediction and impact mitigation
• Atmospheric and air quality monitoring
• Environmental contaminants in marine
environments
• Fisheries research and management
• Promoting coastal activities within multilateral fora

7. Specific Nature of Collaboration
• Areas of collaboration
– Timely exchange of relevant information on grants and proposals
– Regular review of both Sides’ program reviews and agency
announcements
– Shared access to some laboratory facilities, equipment, and materials
– Exchange of personnel with administrative approval
– Shared scientific infrastructure and training of scientists and experts
– Support for joint research and content development for mutual value
• Coordination
– Five-year duration
– No financial obligations
– Intellectual property rights maintained

8. GMES: Dedicated to Space
Infrastructure
•Sentinel 1 – SAR imaging (radar data) (2011)
– All weather, day/night applications, interferometry
– successor of ENVISAT
•Sentinel 2 – Multispectral imaging (2012)
– for land applications, e.g. urban, forest, agriculture
– successor of SPOT, Landsat
•Sentinel 3 – Ocean & Land monitoring (2012)
– Wide-swath ocean color, vegetation, sea/land surface
temperature, ocean altimetry
•Sentinel 4 – Geostationary atmospheric (2017)
– Atmospheric composition monitoring, trans-boundary
pollution
•Sentinel 5 – Low-orbit atmospheric (2019)
– Atmospheric composition monitoring
8

9. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed – Make a plan !

10. Hurricane Hazards
• Winds
• Storm surge
• Rainfall and inland
fresh water flooding
• Tornadoes
WIND
RECORD
FROM
GUSTAV
(2008) IN
CUBA 10
DANNY (1997) SPAWNS
TORNADO IN NORFOLK, VA

11. Hurricane winds can
cause tremendous
damage to structures
and trees, as shown by
Charley’s damage in
southwestern Florida
11

12. Wind-blown Debris can Become Deadly
Projectiles in a Hurricane
12

13. Storm Surge
Hurricane Betsy, 1965, US 1 in the
• The greatest potential killer in Florida Keys
a tropical cyclone
• Abnormal rise in water
generated by a storm, over
and above the astronomical
tide
• Temporary rise in sea level
that effectively moves the New Orleans levee overtopping in
coastline inland Katrina
• Caused primarily by force of
wind blowing across water
surface
• Contribution by low pressure
within center of storm is
13
minimal
Picture by Don McCrosky, Entergy’s Michoud Power Plant Manager

14. Ike’s Damage
Bolivar Peninsula, TX
Images courtesy USGS
Before
14
After

15. Factors Determining Storm Surge
Height at a Given Location
• Where the circulation center Isabel (2003) - Baltimore, MD
crosses the coast
• Storm direction of motion
relative to coastline
• Strength of the winds (storm
intensity)
• Radius of maximum winds
Ike (2008) - Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• Overall size of storm (outer
wind radii)
• Slope of the continental shelf
• Shape of the coastline and
other coastal features
(examples: barrier islands, 15
bays, rivers, levees)

16. Fresh Water Flooding
Hurricane Floyd (1999) Tarboro, NC (Reuters) NC DENR
• U. S. tropical cyclones have
produced as much as 43 inches of
rain in 24 hours.
• TC rainfall potential depends most
on the speed of motion, with slow-
moving systems producing the most
rain
• Tropical depressions or storms can 16
produce more rain than hurricanes!

17. 17
Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas

18. 18
Interstate 10, Looking West, Houston, Texas
Tropical Storm Allison (2001) Houston Chronicle

19. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• Stay informed - Make a plan !

20. Herbert Saffir Robert Simpson
Wind Engineer Meteorologist

21. First publication of the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Scale - 1974:
Pressure - Winds - Surge - Impacts

22. Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

23. Revised Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

24. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
 Categorizes hurricanes by wind speed
MAJOR HURRICANES
Tropical Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4 Category 5
Storm
39-73 mph 74-95mph 96-110 mph 111-130 mph 131-155 mph > 155 mph
(34-63 kt) (64-82 kt) (83-95 kt) (96-113 kt) (114-135 kt) (> 136 kt)
Alberto Katrina Frances Katrina Charley Andrew
(2006) (FL - 2005) (2004) (LA - 2005) (2004) (1992)
Allison Claudette Isabel Wilma Hugo Camille
(2001) (2003) (2003) (FL- 2005) (1989) (1969)

25. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• National Hurricane Center’s Products
• FEMA - Have a plan !

26. HURRICANE LANDFALL AND STORM SURGE
Top view of Sea Surface and Land Side view of Cross Section “ABC”
Wind Sand Dunes Wind
A B C on Barrier
Island STORM SURGE
Eye
MSL
0’
A 5O’ B Current C
100’
150’
200’
Mainland Barrier
Island Continental Shelf

27. The NWS Storm Surge Program
• Total Water Level Guidance: produce water level
analyses, forecasts, and observations that include
all contributions to surge
• Surge, tides, waves, fresh water, background
anomaly
• Inundation Products: provide information about
the water depth over the land (inundation) above
ground level (AGL)
• Communicating Actionable Information:
provide information that people can act on
• Transition from Deterministic approaches to
ensemble/probabilistic approaches

28. First Generation
Inundation Graphic

31. Actionable Information
• NWS has assembled teams to investigate a
collaborative watch/warning CONOPs for
storm surge and begin prototyping ideas for
implementation
– HFIP Social Science contract established to
investigate user requirements/preferences
– Initial ideas tested informally during Irene
– NHC/WFOs testing collaborative W/W concepts

32. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• The National Hurricane Center’s
Products
• Stay informed - Have a plan !

33. National Weather Service hurricane forecast and warning products are like a mosaic…
The National Hurricane Center paints the “big picture”...
and the local Weather Forecast Offices tell the local story

34. Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
 mimics the text TWO
 issued at same time as text TWO
High > 50%
(20%)
Medium 30 – 50%
Low < 30% (40%) (70%)

35. Public Advisory
Atlantic 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT
Plain-language text product
originally intended for “rip
and read”
Headline or lead statement
Summary information
Watches and warnings
Center location, motion, forecast
Wind speed and forecast
Hazards: Wind / Storm surge /
Rainfall / Tornadoes /
Waves and Rip Currents
Recommended actions

36. • Tropical Storm/Hurricane Watch:
An announcement that hurricane conditions are
possible within the specified area. Watches are
issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset
of tropical-storm-force winds.
• Tropical Storm/Hurricane Warning:
An announcement that hurricane conditions are
expected within the specified area. Warnings are
issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset
of tropical-storm-force winds.
36

37. New Public Advisory Format
Section headers added
Storm information first
Changes to watches and
warnings in the current
advisory are highlighted
Bulleted summary of all
watches and warnings in
effect

38. New Public Advisory Format
Section headers
Discussion of forecast motion
and intensity and other
pertinent information
Storm hazards and impacts,
shown by type

39. Forecast / Advisory
Atlantic 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT
Only source of all the
forecast data
Data is used in
HURREVAC and other
commercial tracking
software
Watches and warnings
Center location, motion,
minimum pressure and
eye diameter
Forecast positions,
intensity and wind radii

40. Surface Wind Field
Shows:
Wind field
Past track
Current
watches/
warnings

41. Cumulative Wind History

42. Track Forecast Cone
5-day cone
3-day cone

43. NHC Forecast Cone
• Represents the
probable track of the
center of the tropical
cyclone.
• Formed by connecting
circles centered on
each forecast point (at
12, 24, 36 h, etc.)
• Size of the circles
determined so that,
say, the actual storm
position at 48 h will be
within the 48-h circle
67% of the time.

44. Cone Radii in the Era of 5-Day Forecasts
Atlantic East Pacific
2003 Circle 2011 Circle 2003 Circle 2011 Circle
Forecas Radius (n Radius (n Forecas Radius (n Radius (n
Percent Percent
t Period mi) mi) t Period mi) mi)
Change Reduction
(h) (‘98 – ’02 (‘06 – ’10 (h) (‘98 – ’02 (‘06 – ’10
errors) errors) errors) errors)
12 49 36 -27% 12 43 33 -23%
24 85 59 -31% 24 75 59 -21%
36 121 79 -35% 36 108 79 -27%
48 164 98 -40% 48 131 98 -25%
72 232 144 -38% 72 190 134 -29%
96 318 190 -40% 96 230 187 -19%
120 439 239 -46% 120 252 230 -9%
08:53 PM

45. 08:53 PM
CM
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Ct arll
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hi e bo
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ty ow ne
te ,
ag , F
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46. 08:53 PM

47. Cone versus
Size & Impact
The Cone
DOES NOT
denote
area of
impact….

48. Cone versus
Size & Impact
…as Ike’s
hurricane
force winds
demonstrat
e

49. Discussion
Atlantic 500 am 1100 am 500 pm 1100 pm EDT
Free-form text product
Provides the reasoning
behind forecasts and
warnings
Discussion of relevant
observations, model
guidance, and the forecast
uncertainties
Includes table of track
and intensity forecasts

50. Surface Wind Speed Probabilities
Maximum 1-minute Wind Speed Probability

51. Storm Surge Probabilities
 available in 1-ft increments from 2 to 25 ft
 run when a Hurricane Watch or Warning is in effect
Chance of surge > 2 ft Chance of surge > 10 ft
Stay tuned for more from Jamie…

52. Storm Surge Exceedance Product
Available in 10% increments from 10% to 90%
http://www.weather.gov/mdl/psurge/active.php

53. All products can be found on
the website of
The National Hurricane
Center:
http://www.hurricanes.gov

54. Summer Seminar
• NOAA – JRC Implementing
Arrangement
• Hurricane Hazards
• Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
• Storm Surge
• The National Hurricane Center’s
Products
• Stay informed - Have a plan !

55. Hurricane Liaison Team
HLT Background
• Initial idea arose in early
1990’s
• Successfully proven
during response to the
1995 Hurricane Season
• Became formal in 1996 by
FEMA Director upon
Andy Newman
request of Governor of
Former National Hurricane Center Director Max
Florida and Director of
Mayfield discusses where to issue watches and
warnings along the west coast of Florida for Hurricane
National Hurricane Center
Charley.

56. Hurricane Liaison Team DHS NOC
Communication Flowchart
FEMA NRCC
National
Hurricane FEMA RRCC
HLT
Center HLT
State EOCs
Hu
Ho rric
tli an
ne e Local Local EOCs
NWSFOs

57. Hurricane Liaison Team
Responsibilities
• Facilitate video and
audio conference
briefings to Federal
and State agencies
• Direct issues of
importance to the NHC
Hurricane Specialists
Former National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read
briefing President Barack Obama on Hurricane Irene
• Field and refer
Saturday, August 27, 2011. emergency
management calls to
appropriate state or
other offices

58. Hurricane Preparedness Week
End of May each year
7 informative videos can be found at :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prepare/
Day 1: The Hurricane Season – Bill Read, NHC
Day 2: Storm Surge – Robbie Berg, NHC
Day 3: Wind Effects Including Tornadoes – Robert Molleda, WFO Miami
Day 4: Inland Flooding – Dan Gregoria, WFO Miami
Day 5: The “Full Team Effort” – Dan Brown, NHC
Day 6: Get a Plan – Craig Fugate, FEMA
Day 7: What to Do: Before/During/After – Bill Read, NHC
08:53 PM

59. Facebook
http://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov

60. Stay informed !
• NHC website – www.hurricanes.gov
• Local NWS Weather Forecast Office
in Sterling close to the Dulles
Airport:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/lwx/

61. Make a plan !
• U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) –
www.ready.gov
• For Embassies :OFM's Disaster Preparedness Seminar
Presentations:
http://www.state.gov/ofm/emergency/c50508.htm
-OFM Disaster Response by Bruce Matthews, OFM's Managing
Director
-Emergency Preparedness and the Fire Code by the DC Fire
and EMC Department
-Disasters! How Prepared are YOU? by DepaRtment's
Diplomatic Security Protective Liaison Division
-Preparedness in the District of Columbia by DC Homeland
Security and Emergency Management Agency
-Providing Assistance to the United States after a Disaster by
FEMA 61

62. This presentation was made from slides provided by
James Franklin, Branch Chief of the Hurricane
Specialist Unit of the National Hurricane Center.
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