If the majority of the world’s developing countries continue to strive for our standard of living, we urgently have to find ways to break the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth. Fortunately, in both energy and transport, promising solutions are closer than many of us imagine.

1. Energy and transport in 2050 –
will we overcome the nexus between energy
consumption and economic growth?
ESMT Annual Forum 2014
Jens Weinmann
Berlin, 3 July 2014

2. #esmt2050
Global human
population
(in billions)
7/8/2014 1
Present 2010-2013
ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
How many ‘Earths‘
worth of resources
do we consume?
Past 1970-2010 Future 2013-2050
Our ecological footprint: Past, present and future
Source: WWF Living Planet Report (2013)

3. #esmt2050
Human development and the Ecological Footprint: Either one or the other…
7/8/2014 2ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Meets minimum criteria
for sustainability
Source: WWF Living Planet Report (2012)

4. #esmt2050
The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs. 2012 GDP per capita
7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 3
Source: Deutsche Bank (2014)

5. #esmt2050
The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs. 2012 GDP per capita
7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 4
3.95 billion people
´
China
India
Indonesia
Turkey
Egypt
Mexico Brazil
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Pakistan
Russia
Philippines
Source: Deutsche Bank (2014), World Bank (2014)

6. #esmt2050
The environmental Kuznets curve: Cement consumption per capita vs. 2012 GDP per capita
7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 5
1 billion people
>20,000
𝑈𝑆−$
𝑐𝑎𝑝
6 billion people
<20,000
𝑈𝑆−$
𝑐𝑎𝑝
Source: Deutsche Bank (2014), World Bank (2014)

7. #esmt2050
Energy intensity is not declining fast enough
7/8/2014 6ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2012)

8. #esmt2050
Total primary
energy demand
(in ‘000 Mtoe)
7/8/2014 7
Present 2010-2013
ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Past 1970-2010 Future 2013-2050
Total primary energy demand will increase by 70% until 2050, according to the International
Energy Agency‘s BAU (6°C) scenario…
6°C – Business as usual
2°C – CC scenario
Source: IEA ETP (2014)

9. #esmt2050
Solar photovoltaic price drop mirrors high tech consumer goods
7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 8
Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2014)

10. #esmt2050
The levelized costs of photovoltaic energy range from a minimum of 0.08 EURcts/kWh in
southern Mediterranean to 32 EURcts/kWh in the most northern regions
7/8/2014 9ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Source: Ossenbrink et al. / Joint Research Council (2013)

11. #esmt2050
About 40 percent of the world‘s population lives in the tropical belt
7/8/2014 10
Tropical belt
ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Source: PBH / ATI (2013)

12. #esmt2050
Evolution of global new solar photovoltaic installations 2000-2013 –
rapid development in Asia combined with a sharp drop of installations in Europe
7/8/2014 11
In the IEA’s 2°C-High Renewables Scenario solar becomes the dominant electricity source by
2040, providing 26% of global generation by 2050
ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Sources: EPIA (0214), Ossenbrink et al. / Joint Research Council (2013), IEA ETP (2014)

13. #esmt2050
Will we run out of energy?
7/8/2014 ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050 12
Source: Richard Perez (2011)

14. #esmt2050
Light duty
passenger vehicles
(in millions)
7/8/2014 13
Present 2010-2013
ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Past 1970-2010 Future 2013-2050
The global car fleet will continue to grow…
6°C – Business as usual
2°C – CC scenario
Source: IEA ETP (2014)

15. #esmt2050
The car will remain the preferred means of transport – but which technologies and business
models will dominate?
7/8/2014 14
Air
9%
Light
road
58%
Heavy
road
22%
Rail
11%
Passenger kilometers in
IEA’s 2°C scenario in 2050
(World total of 85 trillion km)
ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Sources: IEA ETP (2014) / IEA Global Tranposrt Outlook / Dulac (2012)

16. #esmt2050
Industrialized countries: The car loses its power as a status symbol for the younger
generation
18 to 25 year old Germans: declining affinity to cars
Sources: Bratzel/Center of Automotive Management (2011); Destatis / KBA (2013)
Yes
24%
No
76%
n=1159
Can you imagine to
live without cell
phone and internet
for a month?
&
Yes
59%
No
41%
Can you imagine to
live without a car for a
month? n=1134
New car registrations and demographics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
<20 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 >79
Inhabitants(million)
Newcarregistrations(2010)
Age group
Inhabitants New car registrations
7/8/2014 15ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050

17. #esmt2050
Free-floating: A new car-sharing service for the digital society
Daimler was the pioneer of free-floating car-sharing Exponential growth in car-sharing
*compared to Jan 1, 2013
Sources: car2go/Daimler (2014), Verkehrsclub Deutschland (2014)
User free-floating
User classic car clubs
Vehicles free-floating
Vehicles classic car clubs
14,000 vehicles
760,000 users
1997 1/1/2014
…as of Jan 1, 2014 Classic car clubs Free floating
Suppliers approx. 150 3
Cities participating 380 (+38*) 12 (+6*)
Users 320,000 (+50,000*) 437,000 (+254,000*)
Vehicles 7,700 (+1,000*) 6,250 (+1,700*)
Stations 3,900 (+650*)
 Car2go is active at 25 locations in
seven European and North
American countries
 approximately 10,000 smart
fortwo vehicles are being used
 by more than 600,000 customers
7/8/2014 16ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050

18. #esmt2050
Electric vehicles are not only an expensive toy in industrialized countries:
Tesla Model S vs. BMW i3 vs. Reva e2o
10 kWh
60-100 km390-500 km
85 kWh 19 kWh
130-160 km
7/8/2014 17ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050
Sources: Company websites (2014)

19. #esmt2050
Tesla’s Gigafactory will decrease battery price of batteries by 30%
By the end of the first year of
volume production of our mass
market vehicle, we expect the
Gigafactory will have driven down
the per kWh cost of our battery
pack by more than 30 percent.
Source: Tesla Motors (2014)
7/8/2014 18ESMT Annual Forum 2014 – Energy and transport in 2050

20. #esmt2050
In the foreseable future, we will not be able to
decouple energy and economic growth…
…but it does not matter as much as we think,
because we will have abundant renewable
energy available!
Key Take-Away

21. #esmt2050
ESMT
European School of Management and Technology
Schlossplatz 1
10178 Berlin
Phone: +49 (0) 30 192 31-0
Fax: +49 (0) 30 192 31-9
info@esmt.org
www.esmt.org
Dr. Jens Weinmann
Program Director
jens.weinmann@esmt.org
+49 (0) 30 21231-8052
Thank you for your attention!