Using data to change the conversation with subject selectors and publishers.

1. Valuing the Bundles:
a UW Libraries Perspective
Tim Jewell
Director, Information Resources and
Scholarly Communication
ER&L Conference, Austin TX
Feb. 2, 2010

2. 2007: “From Shoeboxes to Mashups:
ERMs and Decision Support”
Shoebox “Data Elements”
Journal
Call Number
Priority (1, 2 or 3)
Price
Location
Duplicated?
Selector
Fund
Faculty consulted
Other Selectors Consulted

3. Collection Development Context
• Financial
400%
350% – Chronic budget pressure
300% – Increased importance of
accountability and evidence
250%
• Market
Percent Change
200%
– E-journal “packages”
150% – Licensing issues
100% CPI • Cancellation limits
• Long-term access/archiving
50%
– Publisher consolidations
0% • Organizational
-50% – the end of “rugged
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 individualism?”
Serials Expenditures (+340%)
CPI (+89%)
Monograph Expenditures (+87%)
Monograph Unit (+46%)

4. “Mashup” Data Elements
• “Local” Journal Metrics
– Cost/payment
– Usage, Cost per use
– ILL use
– Faculty data (Publications, Citations, Requests, Priority judgments)
• Global Metrics
– Retail/list price
– ISI Impact Factor
– Emerging metrics (Journal Cost-effectiveness, Eigenfactor, UKSG usage
factor, etc.)
• Others
– Fund code, selector
– Package information (Publisher, cancellation limits, subscribed vs.
unsubscribed, ongoing access rights, archiving via LOCKSS or
Portico, etc.)

5. What reports and comparisons?
• Different for types of resources
– Databases
– Journals
• Journal to Journal Comparisons
• Package Comparisons
– E-books
• Different levels of analysis
– “Selector” or Department
– “Fund Group” or Broad Area
– Campus
– University
– Consortium
• Trends?

6. 2009 Financial Crisis and UW Libraries
• UW budget cuts
– 13.5% reduction (1.5% rescission + 12% cut)
– Branch libraries closed, staff reductions, etc.
– Materials budget cuts (~20% purch. power loss)
• Complex, 3-campus system serving wide range
of research, teaching (biomed to int’l studies)
• UW Resources Budget: 79% Serials/21%
Monographs
• Shift to e-access (UW @ ~55%) w/licenses

7. Complex Serials Review Process
• Phase One
– Reduction targets set, subscription lists generated
– Departments contacted, cancellation lists identified
– User input on proposed cancellations via survey
• Phase Two (overlapped with end of Phase One)
– Publisher negotiations via consortia
– Cancellation implications for “bundles” assessed
• For both, supplemental data made available:
– Article downloads, cost per use
– ISI Impact Factor, Eigenfactor
– UW-authored publications & citations in published work

8. Phase One: Fund-Level Review
Using Access to Create a
Serials Decision Database
Presented at the Charleston Conference,
November 6, 2009
Hana Levay
Information Resources Librarian
University of Washington

9. Project Steps
• Gathered data (cost, use, impact
factor, package info, license terms, etc.)
• Exported table, added cost per use
column, imported back to Access
• Created final table
• Generated spreadsheets by fund code
– .xls format
– .pdf (printable) format

13. Phase 2: Data for
Bundle/Package Value Review
• With and without “unsubscribed” titles
• Article downloads
– Cost per use
– “Adjusted” cost per use
• ISI Impact Factor (Sciences & Social Sciences)
• Eigenfactor (ditto,mostly)
• UW-authored publications (ditto)
• UW citations in published work (ditto)

14. Major journal publishers and costs

15. Profit/Non-Profit
Journal Publisher Pricing Comparisons
(source: JournalPrices.com)
Non-Profit For-Profit Ratio
Mean Journal Price $ 642.78 $ 1,837.88 2.86
Mean Price per Article $ 7.98 $ 24.20 3.03
Mean Price per Citation $ 12.73 $ 39.55 3.11

16. E-journal Bundling and Access
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Unsubscribed
800 Subscribed
600
400
200
0
Elsevier Springer Wiley/Blackwell Sage

17. Bundles and Cancellation Limits
$1,800,000
$1,600,000
$1,400,000
$1,200,000
2008 Expenditure
$1,000,000
Est. Value
$800,000 Proposed Cancellations
Cancel Limit
$600,000
$400,000
$200,000
$-
Elsevier Wiley Blackwell Springer Sage

18. Bundles Being Compared
• American Chemical Soc. • Sage
• American Inst. Of Physics • Springer/Kluwer
• Cambridge Univ. Press • Taylor & Francis
• Elsevier – No UW “bundle”
purchased, so individual titles
• Johns Hopkins Univ. Press can be freely cancelled
(Project Muse)
• University of Chicago Press
• Nature, Science
• Wiley/Blackwell
• Oxford University Press

19. Estimating E-journal Bundle Values:1
• “Cost per use” example:
– UW Paid $4.4M for 2,686,489 article downloads
– Avg. CPU = $1.64
– Est. value of bundle w/100K downloads = $164K
• % of estimated value paid
– If paid $100K, $100K/$164K = 61% (“good”)
– If paid $200K, $200K/$164K = 122% (“bad”)

20. Estimating E-journal Bundle Values: 2
• Estimated value as % of $ spent for “totals”
“Eigenfactor” example:
– UW Paid $4.4M for 63.9 “Eigenfactors”
– Avg. Cost/Eigenfactor = $88,955
– Est. value of bundle w/10 “eigenfactors” =
$889.5K
• % of estimated value paid
– If paid $500K, $500K/$889.5K = 57% (“good”)
– If paid $1M, $1M/$889.5K = 113% (“not good”)

21. Trend Lines for All Metrics
800.00%
700.00%
600.00%
500.00%
CPU % Paid
400.00%
Adj CPU % Paid
300.00% IF % Paid
Eigenfactor % Paid
200.00%
UW Cites % Paid
UW Articles % Paid
100.00%
Avg. % Value Paid
0.00%

22. Bundle Averages: 2008
% of Value Paid
450.00%
400.00%
350.00%
300.00%
250.00%
200.00%
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%

23. Cost per Use
800.00%
700.00%
600.00%
500.00%
400.00%
300.00% CPU % Paid
Adj CPU % Paid
200.00% Avg. % Value Paid
100.00%
0.00%

24. Impact Factor, Eigenfactor & Averages
800.00%
700.00%
600.00%
500.00%
400.00%
300.00% IF % Paid
Eigenfactor % Paid
200.00%
Avg. % Value Paid
100.00%
0.00%

25. Costs per UW Citation, Article, Avg.
600.00%
500.00%
400.00%
300.00%
UW Cites % Paid
200.00%
UW Articles % Paid
Avg. % Value Paid
100.00%
0.00%

26. Bundling Comparison Results
More Cost-Effective Less Cost-Effective
• University Presses • Elsevier
– Chicago • Wiley/Blackwell
– Cambridge
• Springer/Kluwer
– Oxford
• Sage
– Johns Hopkins
• Annual Reviews • Taylor & Francis
– No UW “bundle”
• Nature, Science purchased, so individual titles
• American Chemical Soc. can be freely cancelled
• American Inst. Of Physics

27. Selected Bundle Details
800.00%
700.00%
600.00%
500.00% Elsevier Science Direct
Wiley
400.00% Blackwell HSS
Blackwell STM
300.00% Springer
Sage
Taylor & Francis
200.00%
100.00%
0.00%
CPU % Paid Adj CPU % Paid IF % Paid Eigenfactor % UW Cites % Paid UW Articles % Avg. % Value
Paid Paid Paid

28. Practical Implications?
• Confirmed informal assessments
– Value of some bundles was high
• Retained
• Disallowed individual title cancellations
– Value of others was low
• Talking points with publishers
• One bundle (Springer) dropped
• Focus on others for future renegotiation

29. Another Application:
Estimating “Add-on Collection” Value
Factor Additional “Avg. Cost Per” Est. Value
Impact Factor 500 $575 $287,500
Eigenfactor 2 $68,823 $137,646
UW Articles 100 $1,158 $115,800
UW Citations 3,000 $39 $117,000

30. Further Questions
• Disciplinary Differences and Metrics
• Metric inter-correlations
• Replication/validation
• “Local” Eigenfactor?
• Variation or Stability over time
– use 5 years of data?
• Construct a value index?