1. Denmark’s Goal of Independence
from fossil fuels by 2050
Lars Georg Jensen
Chief Adviser, International Affairs,
Danish Energy Agency, Ministry of
Climate, Energy & Building
Dublin, Ireland, 14 November 2012

2. Denmark 39 Years ago
 1973-74 oil crisis: 2 countries were 99% dependent
of imported energy: Japan + Denmark
 Severe economic crisis, unemployment - and no
driving on Sundays...

3. But today Denmark has the…
 Lowest energy consumption per GDP-unit
in EU
 Highest contribution to electricity from
new renewables (non-hydro RE) in the
world (33%)
 Most efficient clean coal technology world
wide (CHP)
 Highest export rate of energy technology
in the OECD – wind, energy efficiency
(Vestas, Danfoss, Grundfos, Rockwool,
etc.).

4. Gross Energy Consumption in Denmark 1972-2010 –
from oil to a mix of fuels
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1972 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*
Oil Natural Gas Coal Renewable Energy

5. Production of Renewable Energy
1980-2010 – a mix of sources
PJ
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1980 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10
Wind Straw Wood Biogas Waste Heat Pumps
5

6. Five key drivers of global – and Danish
- energy policy
• Energy security: people & societies getting the
amount of energy they need when they need it;
• Economic development: energy provided at a
price which enables economic growth & welfare
(i.e. that the energy is affordable for consumers).
• Environmental priorities: tackling climate
change and local pollution.
• Energy safety: providing energy in a manner
consistent with safety for people and societies.
• Public Accceptance (examples:
nuclear, CCS, wind, etc.)

7. Certainties and uncertainties - some
global energy trends 2012
• High and fluctuating oil prices - era of cheap oil is
over.
• Lots of natural gas on the market, including shale
gas, but many uncertainties about price, delivery &
environmental impacts (of shale gas). LNG?
• Lots of coal, but prices are uncertain, CO2-emissions
high, and development of CCS slow (who wants to
pay?).
• Uncertainty about the future of nuclear power.
• Demand for energy is rising fast in emerging
economies – and are still high in the OECD.
• Global CO2 emissions in 2010 & 2011 were record
high.

8. Trends continued…
• Renewable energy is becoming more
competitive, especially Solar PV.
• Renewable energy is growing at fast rates: half of
all new electricity capacity is renewable and RE
becomes 2nd largest source in 2015.
• Energy efficiency: huge potentials at limited costs
are often not harvested.

9. Summing up: four good reasons why some
countries are taking steps to move beyond fossil
fuels:
• The economy. Renewable energy is not
cheap, but nor is continuing with fossil fuels and
nuclear. Huge investments are required in any
case – we can decide what to invest in!
• Predictability! Creating predictable prices for
businesses and consumers.
• Political independence (>$100/barrel is ”the
largest transfer of wealth in human history”.)
• The environment – we are heading for 3.5 – 6
degrees C global temperature increase…

10. This is why the Danish Government’s
long-term goals for energy policy are:
• 100% Renewables by 2050 (entire energy
supply – electricity, heating, industry and
transport)
• Coal should be phased out from Danish
power plants by 2030.
• Electricity and heat 100% renewable
already by 2035.

11. What’s the trick?: 100% RE in 2050
…by improving energy efficiency
…in order for more energy services to be satisfied with less energy
PJ/Year
1000 …based on renewable energy sources
900
Energy Efficiency
800
700 Conversion
loss etc.
Renewable Energy
600
500 Transport
400 Process
(-
300 electricity)
200 Electricity
consumption
Other RE
Wind
100 Waste
Wood
Room
0 heating
Straw
Energy consumption 2009 Renewable energy 2009

12. Key elements for a 100%
Renewable Energy society in Denmark
• Electricity as main energy carrier.
• Wind and biomass are main sources.
• Strong interconnections to neighbours –
domestically and abroad
(Germany, Sweden, Norway)
• High share of Combined Heat and Power
and district heating systems.
• Focus on systems rather than individual
sources & technologies.

13. New energy strategy – from political
statements to broad agreement
• End of 2007: New Governmental declaration
announces fossil fuels independence as political
target and establishes Commission on Climate
Change Policy.
• May 2008 – Sept 2010 Commission
works, publishes report 28.09.2010.
• 2011: Government publishes its own plan for
independency from fossil fuels.
• 2011: Election: New Government publishes its
own plan.
• March 2012: Broad agreement on 2020 plan in
Parliament.

14. New Policy Targets for 2020
Energy Agreement of March 2012

15. Wind: How to reach 50% of electricity
by 2020
 Adding net 2,000 MW capacity
by:
 Further 500 MW installed near
the coast
 Onshore development of total
1800 MW (replacing 1,300 MW)
 1000 MW offshore wind turbines
 Comprehensive strategy for
Smart Grids

16. Converting to RE in buildings
 From coal to biomass in large
scale CHP
 Promotion of new technologies
e.g. geothermal energy and large
heat pumps
 Banning installation of oil-fired
boilers in homes:
 In new buildings from 2013
 In existing buildings in areas where district
heating and natural gas is available from
2016

17. Other initiatives to reach the RE goals
 Electricity and biomass in Transport
 Subsidies for recharging stations (EV) and
infrastructure (hydro and gas)
 10% biofuels by 2020
 New strategy for plug-in hybrids, etc. by 2013
INDUSTRY
 Better framework conditions for Biogas
 Better and new funding schemes
 Increased capital installation subsidies
BIOGAS
TRANSPOR
T
 More renewable energy in Industry
 Increase of RE in process
 promote more industrial CHP

18. Financing the energy agreement
PSO
tax
tarifs
tax
Total costs ca 500 mill euro tarif PSO
 ca 165 euro/year per household
 ca 3 euro/week per s
household
Financed through
 Tariffs on energy distribution
 PSO financing RE increase in
electricity and gas grids financed
through
 Tax for heating

19. Key Policy Strategy in Denmark
 Long term strategy and based on broad political
agreement in the Parliament.
 Cost-effective subsidy schemes with evaluation on a
regular basis, avoiding over-subsidising
 Energy taxes on fossil fuels makes RE and business
more efficient & competitive.
 A suitable legislative and planning framework
creating predictability.
 A combination of a strong state and the market!

20. Conclusions :
- The transition to independence of fossil fuels is:
• Challenging
- Amounts to no less than a structural shift in the economy
- The necessary investments are considerable.
- There are several roads to take, but also ”safe bets”
• Affordable.
- For the economy as a whole the transition is expected to have limited negative impact, if
any
- For individual companies the transition will create winners as well as losers
• Technically feasible
- Alternatives to fossil fuels are available and can deliver on a large scale
- Alternatives to fossil fuels need supportive policy frameworks to be competitive in the short
run
And presents new business opportunities
- politically created demand for wind power, biomass and bio fuels, building components,
- incentives for profitable energy renovations in industry and other business sectors
- first mover advantages for cleantech companies

21. Thanks for your attention!
More information:
http://www.ens.dk
http://www.kebmin.dk