This presentation shows how visualising the impacts of climate change on local communities, along with visual depictions of adaptation or mitigation, can be a very useful to drive local engagement in vulnerable areas. Presentation by Stephen R. J. Sheppard PhD., ASLA. Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning, UBC, Vancouver, Canada

1. EMPOWERING COMMUNITIES:
Making climate change local and exploring
alternative future visions
Stephen R. J. Sheppard
PhD., ASLA.
Collaborative for Advanced
Landscape Planning,
UBC, Vancouver, Canada
Communicating Climate Change:
Visualization workshop,
Bedruthan, Cornwall
21 May 2014
D. Flanders, CALP

2. Empowering Communities: Outline
1. More effective community engagement:
– Making climate change local with simple visual
learning tools (eg. photo-albums, community mapping)
2. Better planning processes:
– Exploring alternative future visions: embedding
landscape visualization within participatory processes
3. Resources for scaling-up and replicating/
adapting such methods

3. Crisis?
Source: InTouch Magazine, 14 August 2006
Which crisis?

4. Principles for communicating
climate change
• Make it local (or regional)
• Make it visual (compelling)
• Make it holistic (connecting
the dots on climate change)

5. Question:
How many of you have seen climate change?

6. Coastal flooding in West Vancouver, 2013
Photograph by: Mark van Manen, Vancouver Sun

7. Subtle impacts in
local landscapes…
Taylor & Francis
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they are consistent with expected climate change trends. Often, only foresters and park
managers recognize the long-term aftermath in the local landscape. These events (such
as record snowfalls or rainstorms) are still relatively rare in many communities in
temperate regions, and it is hard for people to detect their increasing frequency without
good, clear information.
Impact Window 3 Historical evidence and gradual shifts in temperate regions
Fading memories of once-common conditions, and creeping changes.
(a) Backyard ice-rinks: a tradition for children
growing up in eastern Canada that is
becoming a thing of the past in this hockey-
obsessed nation. Will Canadians see a
fall-off in interest in the sport or just more
(b) ‘Early spring’ in my mother’s garden in
Witney, England: are the early blossoms on
the almond tree and clematis a delight or a
foreshadowing of worse to come?
Source: S. Sheppard, 2012

8. Climate Change Components
Causes
“Carbon consciousness”
Impacts
“Damage report”
Mitigation solutions
“Dealing with the
causes” (GHGs)
Adaptation solutions
“Dealing with the effects”

9. Seeing the world through a holistic
climate change lens

10. BC Community Energy and
Emissions Inventory (CEEI)
• Natural gas
• Gasoline
West Vancouver CEEI data

12. What goes around comes around?

13. Photo-album
documenting
local causes
of climate
change
Taylor & Francis
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PART II Knowing, seeing and acting
Carbon Window 3 Fossil fuels in the neighbourhood (I):
burning carbon in our homes and backyards
(a) Large or low-efficiency homes consume high
quantities of natural gas, oil, coal or
electricity from fossil fuels for heating or
cooling. Chimneys may be the only
externally visible carbon indicator.
(b) Gas meters: many buildings have them,
explicitly recording how much carbon we are
burning and releasing, but they are hard to
read, located in less visible locations outside
the home, and often deliberately screened
from public view.
(c) High carbon businesses in Merida, Mexico,
with air-conditioners in poorly insulated
office buildings and on-street employee
parking.
(d) Natural gas fireplaces are designed to be
viewed inside the home and to mimic an
attractive, carbon-neutral wood fire. In truth,
‘natural’ gas in this context is really

14. Local Mitigation
Solutions
Not for dis
188
Townsfolk can see where their power comes
from.
(c) View from a train in eastern Germany: rural
communities living cheek by jowl with
co-owned wind farms that contribute to the
local economy.
(d)
Photo credits: S. Sheppard

15. Local Adaptation Solutions
Taylor & Francis
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CHAPTER 8 Seeing adaptation solutions
Adaptation Window 4 Measures for managing water hazards in one area
The MetroVancouver region of Canada: wet and wild.
(a) Sea-walls have been built to protect homes
along Boundary Bay, BC, but higher walls to
guard against faster sea-level rise have been
opposed by some residents because they will
block cherished beach views.
(b) Major stream channel reconstruction has
become necessary on steep Northshore creeks
to reduce bank erosion, channel scouring and
debris flows (rock-laden torrents).
Photo credits: S. Sheppard

16. Making energy visible with thermal imaging
Eagle Island neighbourhood retrofit
• 29/30 homes have
done energy audits &
thermal imaging
• Most have done
energy upgrades,
reduced carbon
emissions
• Fuelled by dinners,
wine, and fun !
Sources: PICS White Paper on thermal
imaging and community-led social
mobilization (Cote et al., in press);
UK TI research: Goodhew et al., 2010
Taylor &
Retrofitexistingcommunity
Eagle Island, West Vancouver,
Canada, 2009
E
al
d
re
e
Gussing, Austria, 1996 A
o
N
Photos: S. Sheppard

17. DIY visualization
Credit: Andrew MacFarland and
Damion Dorn, West Vancouver
Secondary School

18. NEIGHBOURHOOD TOOLKIT:
Mapping climate change on your block
Purpose: engaging neighbours with community
mapping of local climate change indicators
– Carbon (high or low?; mitigation potential?)
– Vulnerability to climate change (high or low?;
adaptation potential?)

19. Green Areas
Credit: Mayara Benedetti

20. MOST POSSIBLE
FLOODED AREAS
SECONDARY
FLOODED AREAS
Vulnerability—easily flooded areas
Nanjing Forestry University students Group 6, November 2013

21. Empowering Communities: Outline
1. More effective community engagement:
– Making climate change local with hands-on visual
learning tools
2. Better planning processes:
– Exploring alternative future visions: embedding
landscape visualization within structured participatory
processes

22. Graphs and numbers aren’t enough
Delta: 1.2m of sea level rise projected by 2100
(BC Sea Dike Guidelines, 2011)

23. We need ‘defensible drama’:
visually compelling, science-based
time-travel in familiar places
Ladner Dike View
D. Flanders, CALP

24. Build Up Scenario
D. Flanders, CALP

25. Goal: develop and test a new
engagement/planning process:
• best available data, expert & local
knowledge: co-production
• spatial analysis/GIS & hybrid modelling
• experiential ‘landscape visualization’ to
tap emotions & sense of place
• evaluation of the effect of the process on
knowledge, opinions, motivations & policy
Local Climate Change Visioning
Process
Localize, spatialize and visualize climate
change

26. Average
April
1st
Snowline
Snowpack example
Canadian
Global
Climate
Model
2:
A2
scenario
Data: Environment Canada; Visualization: D. Flanders, CALP

27. Components of Visioning Process
1. Participation
2. Scenario Building
3. Data / Modeling Integration
4. 3D and 4D Visualizations

28. Visioning Process
Iteration of components through
phases with a local working
group.

29. GHG Scenarios
(CO2-equiv, millions of tonnes)
( 2 8 -­‐ 0 1-­‐ 0 7)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
A 2
/
F ortress
World
B 2
/
Policy
R eform
B 1-­‐450
/
Great
Transitions
GB-QUEST Modelling/ Tellus regional scenarios for
Metro Vancouver (Carmichael)
Visualizing future pathways (alternative land
use plans and lifestyles)
Visualisation: D. Flanders, CALP

30. • 2D maps/comm-
unity mapping
• Info-graphics
• 3D landscape visualizations,
video, animations
Various visual learning tools
Proof
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297
change … when you combine easy-to-use mapping technology with
the global reach of the internet.12
This approach taps local knowledge in communities by giving people a
simple, structured way to locate and describe changes in their landscape
that may be due to climate change (Figure 10.7), though information quality
may be very variable unless more systematic methods (as proposed here)
or scientific verification are used. It could also be extended to map causes
and solutions for climate change.
Figure 10.7 Data points with annotations on observed local climate change impacts, entered by contributors around the
world using a Google Maps interface developed by the Landscape Values and PPGIS Institute; this example is from
Washington State
M10_Visualizing Climate Change_P03C10.indd 297 05/12/2011 09:08:50
Data: Natural Resources Canada; Visualization: J. Danahy, U. of Toronto
N. Miller, CALP
Greg Brown,

31. How does Climate Change Visioning
work in practice?
• With a regional socio-economic model and
climate change projections:
– North Vancouver, BC: suburban hillside community
– Delta, BC: coastal floodplain community
• With simple GIS mapping & Google Earth in an
official adaptation plan:
– Kimberley, BC: rural forest-dependent community

32. Current Mean April 1st Snowline (759m)2020s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (789m)2050s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (920m)2090s World 1 (A2) Mean April 1st Snowline (1074m)
NORTH VANCOUVER D. Flanders, CALP

33. NORTH VANCOUVER J. Laurenz, CALP

34. Local food
market
Live / work
development
60% reduction in
home energy
consumption
Mul4family
suites
Community
gardening
Electric
commuter
vehicles
Smaller,
efficient
cars
Increased
public
transit
Stormwater
drainage
swale
Passive
solar
conservatory
NORTH VANCOUVER J. Laurenz, CALP

35. Coastal Neighbourhoods
Holistic Landscape Planning for Climate Change
DNV Presentation
December 15, 2008
Flanders/Pond
Existing Condition2100: Storm surge
(3.48m)
2100: Wall Adaptation2100: Dike Adaptation2100: Retrofitting
largely complete
2050: Complete
resilient floating
neighbourhood
DELTA D. Flanders, CALP

36. Change in Perceptions
of Urgency:
• Before: 23% of
practitioners felt that the
impacts of climate
change are serious now
• After: 46% felt that way
When impacts of climate change will
become serious (Metro Van Practitioners;
Before)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Never 100
years
from
now
50 years
from
now
20 years
from
now
It is
serious
now
%Respondents
When impacts of climate change will
become serious (Metro Van Practitioners;
After)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Never 100
years
from
now
50 years
from
now
20 years
from
now
It is
serious
now
%Respondents

37. Impacts of Local Climate
Change Visioning Process?
• Increased understanding
of local impacts and
solutions
• Increased willingness
(65-69%) to support local
mitigation/adaptation
measures
Delta 2007 public workshops
with survey:
Longterm impacts on decision-
making (interviews 4 years later):
• Local government staff
more willing to consider
radical solutions to climate
change
• Northshore climate hazards
study / detailed Delta
adaptation scenario
assessment
• Widespread use of visual
images in the community

38. Participant comments on the process
(South Delta community):
• "I learned how climate change could affect my
community in a very graphic way. Numbers may not
stay with me but visuals will”
• "I was somewhat aware of global warming impacts on
the Maldives and polar ice caps - this presentation
placed my own community in that context”
• “Felt empowered”

39. Kimberley: User evaluation of visualization
helpfulness
Over 30 adaptation measures adopted in the final Plan
Kimberley public meeting
Respondents n=38, valid n=38
Mean: 4.370,
Standard Deviation 1.051
O. Schroth, C. Miller, CALP

40. Empowering Communities: Outline
1. More effective community engagement:
– Making climate change local with hands-on visual
learning tools
2. Better planning processes:
– Exploring alternative future visions: embedding
time travel through landscape visualization within
participatory processes
3. Resources for scaling-up & replicating
such processes

41. Resources:
Earthscan/Routledge book
www.visualizingclimatechange.ca
Delta RAC website: http://www.delta-adaptation-bc.ca
Visualization Training Modules:
http://www.delta-adaptation-bc.ca/category/training-modules/
www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca/publications
Visioning Guidance Manual
(Pond et al, 2010)

42. Guidelines
for
ethical
&
effec;ve
use
of
visual
media on
climate
change
• Clarity
-­‐
vivid,
easily
seen
and
understood
• Credibility
-­‐
honest,
balanced,
verifiable
• Engagement
-­‐
interes4ng
and
accessible
• Connec4vity
-­‐
relevant,
personal,
integrated
• Feasibility
-­‐
prac4cal,
cost-­‐effec4ve,
replicable
See
also
more
detailed
Visualiza4on
Code
of
Ethics

43. • Vivid, personally meaningful
visual imagery:
– grabs attention, resonates, can
accelerate learning & action
– can be a grassroots DIY tool
• Moral imperative to use
visuals more systematically:
– training and capacity-building for
increased application in practice
• Professional imperative to
do it right:
– adopt ethical principles
– embed in structured, participatory
decision-making processes
Implications for visualizing our
futures with climate change
www.calp.forestry.ubc.ca

44. Future Delta 2.0 educational climate change
videogame
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ollOh5xRz3M
UBCO CCT Team

46. Respondents n=38, valid n=36
Mean: 2.190,
Standard Deviation 1.305
User evaluation of interactive Google Earth
usage in Kimberley public meeting
Fire-spread mapping: Bob Grey Consulting

47. Generic Neighbourhood: The Sandbox,
by land use