1. Drivers for Growth in Automotive
Aluminum Demand
Jack Pell and JD Rutt
Hydro
on behalf of
The Aluminum Association,
Aluminum Transportation Group (ATG)
3. Aluminum Growth Factors
to Consider:
⢠Existing aluminum applications
⢠Impact of federal regulations
⢠Weight reduction and fuel economy improvement
⢠Weight reduction and energy consumption
⢠Benefits to alternative/electric vehicle technology
⢠A future with automotive aluminum
4. 50 Years of Uninterrupted
Automotive Aluminum Growth
12% 11.3%
10.0%
10%
8.8% 394
7.8% Pounds
8% 6.9%
6.1% 334
6% 5.1% Pounds
4.5%
77
3.9%
4% Pounds
2.0% 2.1%
2%
Historical Forecast
0%
Calendar Year 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F
Aluminum Share as Percentage of Curb Weight
Auto Aluminum Content
North America - Percent of Curb Weight
5. Existing Aluminum Applications
⢠Todayâs vehicle contains about 10% by weight
⢠Many vehicles in the U.S. fleet use 400-500 pounds of aluminum
⢠More than 95% of automotive aluminum is recycled
6. Body Holds the Largest Weight
Reduction Opportunity
12,000
â˘Shift to aluminum saves
Currently Aluminum
550 lbs. direct and 10,000
Aluminum Opportunity
secondary weight
KMT Aluminum
8,000
6,000
â˘10% better fuel economy
4,000
â˘No compromise to safety 2,000
â˘No downsizing required 0
â˘Better performance
â˘Lower lifetime CO2
Source: The Aluminum Association
6
7. U.S. Faces Stricter
Fuel Economy Regs
⢠April 2010: the Obama Administration established
regulation that, starting with 2012 model year vehicles,
requires automakers to reduce fleet-wide greenhouse
gas emissions by approximately 5% every year and
strengthen fuel economy each year, reaching an
estimated 34.1 mpg for the combined industry-wide
fleet for model year 2016
⢠October 2010: the Obama Administration announced
next steps toward establishing tighter fuel economy
and emissions standards for 2017 through 2025 model-
year vehicles
7
8. Down Weighting Key to Solution
⢠Weight reduction will be part of the solution to meet
the new regulation bench marks
â Nissan recently announced plans to start
reductions at 15%
â GM recently announced plans to trim 500 lbs. from
its light trucks by 2016, and by the early 2020s,
may cut as much as 1,000 lbs. per truck
⢠Aluminum already offers great weight saving for less
CO2 than competing materials
8
9. Weight Savings Translates to Fuel
Economy Improvement
Mass of Body-in-White Fuel Economy Improvement
400 3 2.7 MPG
Miles per Gallon
Improvement
Kilograms
350
2.5
300
250 2
200 1.5
150
1
100
0.5
50
0 0
Steel (baseline) High Strength Aluminum Steel (baseline- High Strength Aluminum
Steel Intensive Intensive 30 mpg) Steel Intensive Intensive
Source: ika - University of Aachen and the Source: The Aluminum Association
European Aluminium Association (EAA) calculated based on ika mass reduction data;
assumes 23% secondary weight savings 9
10. Greatest Potential with Smallest
CO2 Footprint
⢠The aluminum industry has
cut greenhouse gas factory
emissions per ton of
aluminum produced by
30% since 1990, and aims
to be carbon neutral by
2030
⢠Aluminum has lower life
cycle CO2 emissions than
steel or high strength steel
⢠20 lbs of CO2 is saved for
every pound used Source: Magnesium Industry Life Cycle Study 10
11. Down Weighting Creates Value for
Alternative Powertrains
Percent Increase in MPG Cost per 1 MPG Increase
60.0% $300
50.0% $250
40.0% $200
30.0% $150
20.0% $100
10.0% $50
0.0% $0
Baseline Diesel Hybrid Baseline Diesel Hybrid
Steel Body Aluminum Body Steel Body Aluminum Body
Source: IBIS Associates 11
12. PEV and PHEV Study
$3 Battery Cost Savings Per $1 Invested in Electric Vehicles
Objective:
⢠Evaluate the impact of vehicle weight reduction on electric
vehicle performance, range and battery size
Results:
⢠Reduced battery cost: $900 - $1,950 (@ $750/KWh)
⢠EV weight reduction potential: 19%
⢠10% mass reduction: 4 - 6% reduction in battery size
⢠Expected aluminum structure cost premium: $630
20% reduced vehicle mass yields a 20% range increase
Source: Ricardo 12
13. Time for Down Weighting is Now
⢠A necessity in the holistic approach to meeting U.S.
and global regulations without sacrificing safety or
functionality
⢠The only fuel saving technology that complements
advanced powertrains
⢠Offers more CO2 and fuel savings than other
materials
⢠Transition can happen faster than alternative
powertrain breakthroughs while preserving U.S. jobs
14. Drivers for Growth in Automotive
Aluminum Demand
Thank You
www.aluminumintransportation.org