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www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050?
”SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050”
-hankkeen tuloksia
Aleksi Neuvonen
Demos Helsinki
www.demos.fi
aleksi.neuvonen@demos.fi
Twitter: @leksis
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mitä esityksestä voisi jäädä käteen?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
”Critical friend”:
Haastaa mutta hyväntahtoisesti
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mitä mahdollisuuksia esitetyt
skenaariot tarjoavat
minulle,
organisaatiolleni tai
edustamalleni viiteryhmälle?
Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050
Kuinka elämme vuonna 2050
Mistä elämäntapojen ympäristövaikutukset koostuvat?
Lähde: Suomen ympäristökeskus,Ari Nissinen, 2009
Lähde: Envimat -projekti
Mistä elämäntapojen ympäristövaikutukset koostuvat?
Lähde: Suomen ympäristökeskus,Ari Nissinen, 2009
Lähde: Envimat -projekti
Space of opportunities
2050Now
Space of opportunities
2050Now
Carbon budget
Peak oil
Core
vision
Perinteinen tapa nähdä
tulevaisuus
Rajalliset resurssit
huomioiva tulevaisuus
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
http://www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu/fileadmin/images/content/
D4.1_FourFutureScenarios.pdf
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Kuinka tutkia tulevaisuuden kestäviä
elämäntapoja?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
30 000 kg
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
30 000 kg
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
8000 kg
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20502040203020202012
30 000 kg
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
8000 kg
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20502040203020202012
30 000 kg
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
8000 kg
37 vuotta = yksi sukupolvi
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20122020203020402050
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20122020203020402050
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20122020203020402050
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20122020203020402050
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta?
Kokeiluista disruptiiviseen
muutokseen
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mobility (daily and tourism)
11 000 kg
Housing: building
2400 kg
Product
consumption
2600 kg
Leisure time
1500 kg
Food
7300 kg
Housing:
electricity
3300 kg
Others
900 kg
20122020203020402050
Mobility
(daily and tourism)
2800 kg
Food
2500 kg
Housing:
building
1300 kg
Others
Housing:
electricity
300 kg
Product
consumption
Leisure
time
300 kg
Entä jos lähdemmekin tavoitellusta tulevaisuudesta?
Kokeiluista disruptiiviseen
muutokseen
Kvantitatiivisesta resurssitehokkuudesta
kestävien elämäntapojen arkisiin käytäntöihin
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Vaihtoehoisia skenaarioita kestäville elämäntavoille
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy Human-centrism
Endemic technology
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pääkysymykset:
Miten teknologia kehittyy?
Miten ihmisen paikka yhteiskunnassa määrittyy?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Identifioidut muutosilmiöt
Markkinaehtoiset ohjauskeinot läpi yhteiskunnan
Materiaaliteknologinen läpimurtoKaupungistuminen
Kilpailuyhteiskunnan arvotUbiikkiteknologiat
Ammattirakenteen muutos Digitaaliset yhteisöt
3D-tulostus kuluttajamarkkinoilla Energiakriisi
Paikalliset resurssit
Paikallisuuden arvostus
Palvelutalouden työnjako
Järjestelmätason talouskriisi
Edustuksellisen demokratian kriisi
Moniammatillisuus
Alkutuotannon korostuminen
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Singular Super Champions
Governing the Commons
Local Loops
Empathetic Communities
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Singular Super Champions
Hintamekanismi
Upcycling-talouden läpimurto
Tiivis kaupunkirakenne
Kilpailullisuus
Governing the Commons
Local Loops
Empathetic Communities
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Singular Super Champions
Hintamekanismi
Upcycling-talouden läpimurto
Tiivis kaupunkirakenne
Kilpailullisuus
Ubiikkiteknologiat
Ammattirakenteen hajoaminen
Digitaaliset yhteisöt
3D-tulostus muuttaa kuluttajuutta
Governing the Commons
Local Loops
Empathetic Communities
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Singular Super Champions
Hintamekanismi
Upcycling-talouden läpimurto
Tiivis kaupunkirakenne
Kilpailullisuus
Ubiikkiteknologiat
Ammattirakenteen hajoaminen
Digitaaliset yhteisöt
3D-tulostus muuttaa kuluttajuutta
Energiakriisi
Paikalliset teknologiat ja resurssit
Paikallisen osaamisen keskittymät
Palvelutalous
Governing the Commons
Local Loops
Empathetic Communities
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Singular Super Champions
Hintamekanismi
Upcycling-talouden läpimurto
Tiivis kaupunkirakenne
Kilpailullisuus
Ubiikkiteknologiat
Ammattirakenteen hajoaminen
Digitaaliset yhteisöt
3D-tulostus muuttaa kuluttajuutta
Energiakriisi
Paikalliset teknologiat ja resurssit
Paikallisen osaamisen keskittymät
Palvelutalous
Talouskriisi, valtioiden taantuminen
Paikallisuus, moniammatillisuus
Alkutuotannon roolin korostuminen
Governing the Commons
Local Loops
Empathetic Communities
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Eurooppa on tehnyt suuren loikan kestävään, kilpailulliseen
mutta reiluun yhteiskuntaan.
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
“Education is
everywhere in daily
life. Kids can log in
to any object and
access the so-
called ‘situated
education
programmes’ and
learn flexibly all
through the day.”
Diffused learning
embedded in everyday
products
School programs
integrating in daily activities
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
I eat only food that’s hyper-
efficient in terms of nutrition
levels. Cabbages, lentils
and berries are key
elements in my diet. It just
makes sense!
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
I returned my old shoes to
the shoe store and got my
store credit returned by
doing so. I can now get
brand new shoes and I
know that it’s great for the
environment as well!
Learning not earning
The upcycling economy
Transparency gets
the prices right
The European
Green New Deal
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Digitaalinen todellisuus vapauttaa ihmiset vanhoista rakenteista ja
avaa tien kestävään yhteiskuntaan.
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
My son never buys
anything that is mass-
produced. He wants to
customise it all by
himself. I think all of
his clothes are custom
made.
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
“I often log on to these participative
governance programs in order to meet
people with whom I share common
interests. We regularly propose
initiatives that later become the basis
of new policies.”
Local citizenship
networksDeliberative processes on
local governance
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
“Our Active House is constantly
optimising the way we live, from
suggesting green cooking recipes and
automatically preventing food waste to
implementing Energy Watcher dieting
programs for the family.”
Sensors and
feedback systems
Situated advise
on energy
consumption
Wikidemocracy
Better work creates
well-being
Ubitech economy
The 3rd industrial
revolution
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Radikaali energiakriisi pakottaa yhteiskunnat arvioimaan
uudelleen hyvinvointinsa perusteet ja näkemään uuden
mahdollisuuden paikallisissa voimavaroissa.
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
I returned my old shoes to
the shoe store and got my
store credit returned by
doing so. I can now get
brand new shoes and I
know that it’s great for the
environment as well!
“For my husband and me, leisure means visiting one
the Local Gastronomy Guilds around, who are
reinventing new recipes from local seasonal food.”
Open kitchens promoting
local gastronomy
Food lessons
of green cooking
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
2023: Oil prices continue to rise beyond belief,
pushing great numbers of logistics companies
out of the market or forcing them to sell their
operations to the few remaining large ones. As
a result, a small number of firms dominate
transport markets in many countries, which
ultimately leads to significant price increases.
!
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
I love living in my
Danish town. We
haven’t had to worry
about buying energy in
ages. I know lots of
other towns that enjoy
the same situation.
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
Green doorkeepers
are a specialized
guild that controls,
monitors and ensures
the energy efficiency
of buildings and
blocks. They serve as
links between the
neighbourhoods.
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Craftsman attitude
Local turn
Rediscovery
of local resources
Peak-oil
game-changer
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Länsimaiset yhteiskunnat ajautuvat kauan pelkäämäänsä
järjestelmäkriisiin mutta lopulta uusi järjestys syntyy helpommin
kuin mitä useimmat odottivat.
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
“I know a lot about
easy and cost-efficient
energy retrofitting jobs
such as insulation.
Our co-operative is
very good at these
quick fixes and we
enjoy sharing our
knowledge with the
community.”
Retrofitted
passive housing
Insulation based
on DIY solutions
Mix of new active
constructions
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
2026: In many countries governments resign
and it turns out to be impossible to form new
coalitions, which paralyzes national politics
and public investments.
!
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
Health is of the highest
importance in local
administration and in every
municipality here in the
Netherlands, as it is in all
other European countries.
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
“I love the fact
that the old
streets are now
turned into
urban farming
plots while still
maintaining
plenty of space
for walking and
cycling.”
Minor streets
transformed and
divided into local
neighbourhood
gardens
Re-appropriation
of public space
regenerates
local social life
Former
sidewalks
maintained for
local mobility
Provides
complementary
food resources
for houses and
apartments
nearby
Communitisation
of urban planning
Public, private and people (PPP)
– the new welfare model
The “We can” generation
works together
The system
breaks down
Maria Ritola, Demos Helsinki
BudapestBarcelonaHelsinki Wuppertal
5 työpajaa, 75 eurooppalaista
Mitä ihmiset haluavat
ja toivovat kestävältä tulevaisuudelta?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Pandemic technology
Meritocracy
Endemic technology
Human-centrism
Bernd, Germany
55,1t
Kirsti, Finland
38,7t
Iria, Spain
24,8t
Péter, Hungary
8,8t
On siis ymmärrettävä, kuinka elämäntavat
muuttuvat
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Kuka toteuttaa muutoksen kestäviin
elämäntapoihin?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Company Industry Revenue
(billion USD)
Exxon Mobil Oil and gas 486 $
Royal Dutch Shell Oil and gas 470 $
Walmart Retail 447 $
Sinopec company Oil and gas 398 $
China National Petroleum
Corporation
Oil and gas 378 $
BP Oil and gas 376 $
Vitol Commodities 297 $
State Grid Corporation of
China
Electric utility 266 $
Chevron Oil and gas 254 $
ConocoPhillips Oil and gas 251 $
Maailman suurimmat yritykset
Wikipedia (2012) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_by_revenue
Company Industry Revenue
(billion USD)
Exxon Mobil Oil and gas 486 $
Royal Dutch Shell Oil and gas 470 $
Walmart Retail 447 $
Sinopec company Oil and gas 398 $
China National Petroleum
Corporation
Oil and gas 378 $
BP Oil and gas 376 $
Vitol Commodities 297 $
State Grid Corporation of
China
Electric utility 266 $
Chevron Oil and gas 254 $
ConocoPhillips Oil and gas 251 $
Maailman suurimmat yritykset
Wikipedia (2012) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_by_revenue
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mikä on energia-alan business
opportunity?
www.sustainable-lifestyles.eu
Mikä on energia-alan business
opportunity?
Vai jäätetäänkö areena suosiolla
uusille kasvuyrityksille?
Isännöitsijät
Kiinteistönvälittäjät
Elintarvike-teollisuus
Ruokakaupat
Autokaupat
Rakennus-valvonta
Tekniikan maailmat
Kotimaan matkailupalvelut
Metsänomistajat
Kestävien elämäntapojen portinvartijat
Energiayhtiöt
44
Sharetribe
Piggybaggy
Hukkatila
Weegos
Karves-
energiaisännöinti
There
coprporation
Uusi Startup-skene
Sharetribe
Piggybaggy
Hukkatila
Weegos
Karves-
energiaisännöinti
There
coprporation
Uusi Startup-skene
Toteuvatko kestävät elämäntavat...
1. Muuttamalla 10 suurimman yrityksen
strategiat?
2. Luoda uudet 10 suurinta yritystä?
3. Luottamalla startup-vetoiseen jatkuvaan
luovaan tuhoon?

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