The document discusses trends and trend watching. It defines a trend as a general direction of change that is developing and becoming more common. It cautions that not everything cool or popular is a true trend. The document provides tips for observing trends, evaluating trends through data, and explaining trends by considering why they are occurring and how they impact business. It emphasizes the importance of adapting to trends over time through dedicated resources and flexibility. The "trend commandments" encourage proactive and ongoing trend watching to inform business decisions.

1. The Trend
Commandments
squared
Jen Grant, SVP/Director of Brand Planning | Instagram: @jengrsnap
David Yeend, VP/Planning Director | Twitter: @davidyeend

2. What
isn’t a
trend?
THINGS THAT ARE COOL,
“TRENDY” OR HIPI
III
II
IV
A TRENDING TOPIC ON
SOCIAL MEDIA
ESOTERIC FACTOIDS THAT
MAKE YOU SOUND
REALLY SMART
AN OBSERVATION MADE AT
ONE DISCRETE MOMENT
IN TIME

3. trendnoun
2Trend (n.) ‘trend
A general direction of change; a way of behaving, proceeding,
etc., that is developing and becoming more common
To show a tendency; a prevailing inclination or line of
development
Merriam-Webster “Trend” 2014.

4. SOME MORE
STELLAR
PREDICTIONS
FROM THE
RECENT PAST
“The internet in 1996 will
catastrophically collapse.”
- Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet,
3com founder, in 1995
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictions
http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.html
http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.html
http://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html

5. SOME MORE
STELLAR
PREDICTIONS
FROM THE
RECENT PAST
“'Smellyvision' ... chemicals
into our TVs so we can enjoy
the aromas."
- The People newspaper, London, in 2000
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictions
http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.html
http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.html
http://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html

6. SOME MORE
STELLAR
PREDICTIONS
FROM THE
RECENT PAST
“There’s no chance that the
iPhone is going to get any
significant market share.”
- Steve Ballmer, in 2007
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Metcalfe#Incorrect_predictions
http://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/the-50-biggest-websites-of-2010-as-predicted-in-2000-1445142253
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/20/business/business-10-stocks-for-2010-buy-and-hold-picks-from-top-investors.html
http://blogs.chicagotribune.com/news_columnists_ezorn/2009/12/cracked-cloudy-or-clear-the-crystal-ball-report.html
http://www.livescience.com/38876-10-worst-tech-predictions-of-all-time.html

7. TREND-WATCHING IS ONLY
AS USEFUL AS YOUR WILLINGNESS
TO BE ACCOUNTABLE TO IT.

8. INGREDIENTS
FOR TREND-WATCHING
SUCCESS
1 liberal helping of PATIENCE
3 cups of ADAPTABILITY
4 spoonfuls of INSIGHT
Dash of HUMILITY
And above all, the passage of TIME

9. Explain(why?)
What are the reasons thispattern is occurring?
How does it impact ourbusiness?
Should we adapt to it? How?
III
Observe
(what?)
Start with an
observation.
Or, better yet, a
business question.
I
Evaluate
(how?)
Do data points
converge?
Do we see a consistent
pattern over time?
Can we test our theory?
II
How Thou Shalt Trend Watch:-

10. Trend Watching Toolkit-
Observe
(what?)
Start with an
observation.
Or, better yet, a
business question.
I • ONE-TIME SURVEYS
• SHOPPER DATA
• TREND REPORTS W/O CONTEXT
• INDUSTRY REVIEWS
• SOCIAL CONTENT
• IN-STORE OBSERVATION
• “SOME BLOGGER IN BROOKLYN”

11. Trend Watching Toolkit-
Do data points
converge?
Do we see a consistent
pattern over time?
Can we test our theory?
Evaluate
(how?)
II
• TRACKERS
• SYNDICATED DATA (SIMMONS, MRI, &c.)
• REPEATED SURVEYS
• SECONDARY REPORTS WITH CONTEXT
• YOY BUSINESS DATA (SALES, TRAFFIC,
CRM, MERCHANT INFO)
• SOCIAL LISTENING
Qualitative for insight, quantitative for scale.

12. Trend Watching Toolkit-
What are the reasons this
pattern is occurring?
How does it impact our
business?
Should we adapt to it? How?
Explain
(why?)
III
• EXPLORATORY QUAL
• CROSS-FUNCTIONAL BRAINSTORMS
• TEST INITIATIVES
• DATA TRIANGULATION

13. Let’s Practice

14. I
Observe
II
Evaluate
III
Explain
“I didn’t see many kids in
the store last weekend.
What’s up with that?”
- Your CEO
“Our product mix is less
appealing to kids / parents?”
2010 2011 2012 2013
40%
47%
Kids In The HH
“Our campaign message
appeals to kids / parents less?”
“Our store experience is off-
putting to shop with children?”
(“Sure, but overall sales are up!
So what are we complaining about?”)
SOURCE: Simmons Fall 12-month study 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013

15. I
Observe
II
Evaluate
III
Explain
“Mobile commerce is
driving eCommerce.”
- Industry Report
“Tablet sales are putting more
mCom devices in the world?”
“More eCom sites are becoming
mobile-friendly?”
“People are getting more
comfortable with mCom security?”
SOURCE: eMarketer 2014
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$13.57
$24.78
$41.68
$56.72
$75.00
$96.81
$113.57
7.0% 11.0% 16.0% 19.0% 22.0% 25.0% 17.3%
US Retail mCommerce Sales, 2011- 2017
billions, and % of retail eCommerce sales

16. I
Observe
II
Evaluate
III
Explain
“I heard at some
conference that digital
coupons are the future of
retail.”
“Digital targeting makes offers
more relevant than ever?”
“Real-time optimization makes
digital perform better on the fly?”
“Postal workers are
sabotaging us?”
2010 2011 2012 2013
0.2
0.26
Via Web/Email
0.23
2010 2011 2012 2013
0.54
0.61
Via Mail
0.575
*SOURCE: Simmons Fall 12-month study 2010 / 2011 / 2012 / 2013 ... “Mail” includes
newspaper inserts, magazine inserts, and all “DM”

17. Observe
(what?)
I
Explain
(why?)
III
Evaluate
(how?)
II

18. How To Act On Trends
(After all .... a trend is only as valuable as the action that follows it.)
Dedicate team and time to trend-watching
Proactively set aside budget to evaluate and optimize
Don’t be afraid to change course
Make it an ongoing priority
Educate internal stakeholders (and pick their brains)
Learn from your shopper data and your merchants
Rinse and repeat (a virtuous cycle)

19. So...What Are The Trend Commandments?
Thou shalt not point to a cool
thing and call it a trend.
Thou shalt not spot “trends” in
one moment alone.
Thou shalt have the patience to
observe and evaluate how a trend
develops.
Thou shalt not proclaim a trend
without considering its
implications.
Thou shalt build organizational
support and understanding.
Thou shalt use thy data and
shoppers to identify trends
proactively.
Thou shalt be flexible enough to
adapt to trends.
Thou shalt not get
discouraged if a trend doesn’t
pan out as expected.
Thou shalt make trend-
watching an ongoing habit.
Thou shalt act on the trends
that impact your business.

20. Thank You.
squared
www.22squared.com
@22squared
Jen Grant, SVP/Director of Brand Planning
Instagram: @jengrsnap
David Yeend, VP/Planning Director
Twitter: @davidyeend