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1. Future Change Agents - an oceanographic perspective
LOOKING BACK-MOVING FORWARD
Bob Fournier
Atlantic Geomatics Association
13 June 2012

3. Road Map
 Introduction
 Ocean Warming
 Sea level Rise
 Ocean Acidification
 Human Element
 Tipping Point
 Geo-engineering

4. Competing Explanations
•Orbital variation
•Plate tectonics
•Volcanism
•Ocean variability
•Tilt of earth’s axis
•Atmos. chemistry
•Solar output
Based on IPCC Report 2007

5. Letter to Editor, Wall Street Journal, January 26, 2012
Wall Street Journal, 26 January 2012

8. OCEAN WARMING

10. NASA

11. Cape Verde
Islands
Birthplace of Hurricanes (affects North and South Atlantic)

12. Science 309: 1844 (2005)

13. Category Five: 268 kph (2 days earlier = 287 )
o
Category
NASA

14. Recent Observations
 Past 20 years extreme winds increased ~10% and
extreme wave height increased average of 7%
 Longer lasting storms with higher wind velocities
inflict greater damage - function of (wind speed)3
 Surface warming of 20C would intensify hurricane
wind speeds by 3-7 m/s or 5-13 %.
 Global Water Cycle – recently doubled re models

15. SEA LEVEL RISE

16. • Average increase of 2mm per year until 1993 – now 3 mm per year
•Coastal areas less than 10 m above sea level account for 2% of all land
and 10% of world population (about 700 million people)

18. NASA Image, Cindy Starr
Illulisat (Western Greenland) – largest single glacier in the North Atlantic

19. 1.5 m SL rise
Dhaka People affected
17 million
(15%)
Land affected:
Calcutta
22,000 km2
(16%)
Bangladesh, Bay of Bengal - 1970 Bhola cyclone claimed 500,000 lives

20. Dhaka slum of Korail (National Geographic May 2011)

21. Maldives
•1200 coral atolls
•2.5 m above S. L.
•300,000 people
•Seriously threatened,
few options
•Plan: turn off lights
lock up and leave

22. Male, Capital of Maldives
Population: 80,000 Protective wall:
10% of GDP

23. Shaw, J. et al. 1998. Geological Survey of Canada, Bulletin 505.
Natural Resources Canada
Maritime Provinces - highly vulnerable with potentially greatest social disruption

25. The number of people at risk from flooding by coastal
storm surges is projected to increase from the current 75
million to 200 million....in which a rise in sea level of 40 cm
is envisaged by the 2080s
(from Patz et al 2006 after McCarthy et al 2001)

26. Global Warming’s Evil Twin
OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

27. pH is measure of acidity (1-7) and alkalinity (7-14)
Logarithmic scale: change in pH of 0.1 = 30% more acidity

28. Great Barrier Reef, Australia

31. What is the Impact of Acidification?
•Ocean food chain threatened by loss of
small plankton organisms
• Corals (surface and deep), upon which
many people depend, for:
-food
-raw materials
-recreation
-water purification
-tourism
-storm impact reduction
• Economic hit to the global economy
will fall between $30-170 billion per yr
• Displacement of millions of people

32. Common to Three Examples
(ocean warming, sea level rise, acidification)
 World ocean issues
 Linked to CO2 increase
 Accelerating ?
 Profound socio-economic
implications
 Canada will be impacted
 Approaching tipping point?

33. THE HUMAN ELEMENT

34. Environmental Refugees
 Hundreds of millions of
people on the move over
next few decades
 10 million refugees last year
& UN claims 50 million by
end of next decade
 Red Cross: “environmental
disasters already displace
more than war” In addition to 3 examples:
drought
 Expected to become one of the soil moisture
foremost crises of our time intense precipitation
desertification

35. Population and Environment cannot be separated

36. Two-thirds of 22 megacities are coastal – presently 310 million people

37. Potential Impacts on Human Health
 Coastal flooding/erosion  Extreme weather
 SW intrusion into  Harmful algal blooms
aquifers
 Focus on poorest regions
 Altered coral reefs
 Famine and malnutrition
 Altered Coastal fisheries
 Microbial diseases
 Human displacement
 War
 Economic disruption

38. After Malcolm Gladwell (2002)
TIPPING POINT

39. • Stable on top
• Stable at bottom
• Chaotic transition
begins with
“Tipping Point”

40. stable
chaotic
stable

42. • 25X more effective as
GHG than CO2
• Vast untapped deposits
in cold seas
• Exit into atmosphere
accelerates warming
which accelerates
methane release
which accelerates....
Frozen Sea-Bed Methane (Hydrates)

43. A Possible Remedy?
GEO-ENGINEERING

44. Large scale, deliberate intervention in earth’s climate
Choices: solar radiation management or removal of CO2

45. “When you start to reflect light
away from the planet, you can
easily imagine a chain of events
that would extinguish life on
earth”
Dr. David Keith
Prof. of Engineering
and Public Policy
Harvard University