Within a very limited timeframe of only 20 years, the internet has upended entire industries from the ground up. Each and every industry will increasingly turn into a tech-industry with the dynamics of Moore's law at play. These exponential developments will only accelerate the pace of change. The questions posed to the economy and the very foundation of our society will be nothing short of earth-shattering.
10. PREDICTIONS...
http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306
„Visionaries
see
a
future
of
telecommu(ng
workers,
interac(ve
libraries
and
mul(media
classrooms.
They
speak
of
electronic
town
mee(ngs
and
virtual
communi(es.
Commerce
and
business
will
shi_
from
offices
and
malls
to
networks
and
modems.
And
the
freedom
of
digital
networks
will
make
government
more
democra(c.
Baloney.
Do
our
computer
pundits
lack
all
common
sense?
The
truth
in
no
online
database
will
replace
your
daily
newspaper,
no
CD-‐ROM
can
take
the
place
of
a
competent
teacher
and
no
computer
network
will
change
the
way
government
works.“
12. REASONS
Companies
are
planning
for
con(nuous/linear
development
–
while
the
world
is
increasingly
discon(nuous/exponen(al
„If
the
rate
of
change
on
the
outside
exceeds
the
rate
of
change
on
the
inside,
the
end
is
near.“
Jack
Welch
http://www.mrgoodacre.com/uploads/1/0/5/3/10539489/7363039_orig.png?1
13. REASONS
“How
did
you
go
bankrupt?”
“Two
ways.
Gradually,
then
suddenly.”
―
Ernest
Hemingway,
The
Sun
Also
Rises
27. REPLACING JOBS
„The
role
of
humans
as
the
most
important
factor
of
produc(on
is
bound
to
diminish
in
the
same
way
that
the
role
of
horses
in
agricultural
produc(on
was
first
diminished
and
then
eliminated
by
the
introduc(on
of
tractors.“
Wassily
Leon(ef
(1983)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/a/aa/Leontief-Harvard.jpg
28. REPLACING JOBS
In
the
next
two
decades,
47
per
cent
of
employment
is
‘in
the
high-‐risk
category’,
meaning
it
is
‘poten(ally
automatable’.
http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/future-employment-how-susceptible-are-jobs-computerisation-oms-working-paper-dr-carl-benedikt-frey-m
31. MOBILITY
1.2
million
deaths
related
to
car
accidents/year
(40%
alcohol/93%
distracted)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bN44bL3reCo
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1f/Head_On_Collision.jpg
32. MOBILITY
Driven
just
4%
of
the
(me
Cost
of
$9.000/year
http://qz.com/264781/the-latest-attack-on-americas-car-culture-comes-from-wall-street/
http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/04/average-cost-of-car-ownership-rises-to-8-946-per-year/
http://demonsofdistraction.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/media/2011/11/LostCarParkingLot.jpg
33. MOBILITY
Self-‐driving
cars:
99%
fewer
cars
required
Parking
lots
no
longer
required
(10%
city
space)
http://www.detroitchamber.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/AutofactsAnalystNoteUSFeb2013FINAL.pdf
http://www.templetons.com/brad/robocars/
40. HEALTH
$258
bn.
+
130,000
deaths
due
to
non-‐prescribed
medica(on
just
in
US
No
doctors
required
within
20
years?
http://www.marsdd.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/marsblog-GivenImaging-PillCam.png
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/quantified-self/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTtL-iAXJxo
45. BANKING
„Banking
is
necessary,
banks
are
not.“
Bill
Gates
http://blogs-images.forbes.com/mfonobongnsehe/files/2014/09/bill-gates.jpg
46. BANKING
2020:
35%
of
revenues
lost
to
non-‐banks
and
online
pure-‐plays
http://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/a9329ebf6090afb969b7a98195460892.jpg
http://www.creativeconstruction.de/lp/trends2015/banking-without-banks/
50. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
=
largest
„taxi“
provider;
no
vehicles
=
most
popular
media
owner;
no
content
created
=
most
valuable
retailer;
no
inventory
=
largest
accomoda(on
provider;
no
real
estate
=
largest
food
delivery;
no
restaurants,
no
fleet
51. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
User
experience
=
the
central
part:
own
the
customer
(and
the
profits)
by
solving
her
problem
in
the
most
seamless,
enjoyable
way.
„The
customer's
percep(on
is
your
reality.“
Kate
Zabriskie
„Design
is
not
just
what
it
looks
like
and
feels
like.
Design
is
how
it
works.“
Steve
Jobs
http://www.dandzombak.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Steve-Jobs-Secret-of-Life.jpg
52. THE INTERFACE: WHO OWNS THE CUSTOMER?
Service
Aggrega(on
Need
Convenience
passive
responsive
proac(ve
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/NY-Taxis.jpg
54. DIGITAL DISRUPTION BY INDUSTRY
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCdJ8btW0AAlNKz.png:large
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Documents/Building%20Lucky%20Country/deloitte-au-consulting-digital-disruption-whitepaper-0912.pdf