1. Future Transport of Goods
Scenarios for Europe´s
future transport of
goods in the Baltic Region
COPENHAGEN
INSTITUTE
F R
F U T U R E S
S T U D I E S
Nov 2002

2. Contents
The Challenge
Europe in the Future
Western Europe
Central Europe and the Baltic
Russia
Collapse in Traffic
Transport of goods in Europe
Traffic Infrastructure in Europe
Environmental impact
Collapse in Traffic
Future GDP and Transport of Goods
New Intermodal Traffic System
Intermodality
Intermodal Junctions
Intermodality in Europe
Prepared in dialogue with Scandlines by:
Kåre Stamer Andreasen
Søren Jensen
Uffe Palludan
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Nørre Farimagsgade 65
DK-1364 Copenhagen K
Tel: +45 3311 7176
E-mail: iff@iff.dk
www.iff.dk
Photos: Baunbaek, Niels Front page and page 1
Second edition Nov. 2002
This report has been prepared by the Copenhagen Institute
for Future Studies. The Institute is an independent privately
financed research institution. The objective of the institute is
to improve the basis for strategic decisions in private and
public organisations. Since the beginning of the 90’s, the
Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies has helped influence
future traffic planning.
The research of the Institute is developed concurrently with
active participation in traffic projects.
The Institute’s research in traffic and intermodal junctions
has lead to the present cooperation with Scandlines.

3. The Challenge
Today, Europe has a historic opportunity to Another important point is that traffic
ensure peace and prosperity through cooperation. planning can be an effective regional political
However, the continent’s future intra-trade, control instrument.
integration and environment are threatened by
a breakdown of traffic. Parts of Europe, especially It is necessary to ensure that future transport
Germany, are already congested by traffic. systems will be environmentally and economically
Therefore, it is necessary to create a sustainable. Transport of goods by ship and rail are
future-oriented traffic system. the most environmentally friendly methods of
long-distance transport of goods whereas
The traffic in Western Europe is predominantly transport by road is often more suitable for short
north-south-oriented. Infrastructure for handling distances. An integration of these three transport
the future transport of goods between East and systems is a prerequisite for solving future traffic
West is inadequate. However, parts of the future problems. The integration of transport systems is
east-westbound transport of goods can be not natural today.
handled efficiently by a combination of different
transport methods and alternative routes. This will
establish the preconditions for improved and Intermodal Junctions
sustainable growth in the new Europe.
The different means of transport can be integrated
The traffic planning of the Baltic may contribute so as to make it possible to choose and combine
positively to the development and integration of the means of transport which are optimal in the
Europe. The Baltic may become the freight given situation. This can be ensured through an
corridor for a part of the east-westbound expansion of intermodal junctions and a
transport of goods. The hinterland for the Baltic standardisation of the goods handling. Intermodal
transport of goods includes several of the great junctions develop where traffic flows cross and
economies in Europe - either by a direct coastline means of transport meet.
to the Baltic or by a connection with the Reloading between the different means of
European trade flows. At Fehmarn Belt the transport, e.g. between train, lorry and ship, takes
north-southbound traffic flows cross the Baltic place at intermodal junctions. Smooth intermodal
east-westbound transport routes. junctions create synergy between the different
A possible future Fehmarn Belt bridge combined means of transport and ensure the cheapest,
with an east-westbound "blue motorway" may quickest and most environmental transport of
therefore become one of the future traffic goods. The prerequisite for efficiently functioning
junctions for the European transport of goods. intermodal junctions is well-developed logistics
and organisation. Furthermore, the necessary
Firstly, it should be established that traffic infrastructure must be built and a number of
planning can create a certain basis for new standards for the handling of goods must be
production and intra-trade by eliminating established.
bottlenecks.
1

4. Europe in the Future The Nordic Countries
Planning on the basis of forecasts is based on The Nordic economies are integrated with the
projections of yesterday’s structure and other Western European economies to such an
development. This method presupposes a extent that their development cannot be expected
continuous development of society. However, the to deviate considerably from the European
development of society is far from continuous: economy as a whole. However, the location of the
Trend breaks occur and structures change. Nordic countries means that, as e.g. Austria, they
Planning should be made in acknowledgement of can benefit in particular from the development in
the fact that the future is not given, but can be Central Europe, the Baltic countries and CIS.
influenced towards a desired direction. In During the past years, trading with the
particular, traffic planning can establish new other Baltic countries has grown considerably,
preconditions which change the development. which is a development that can be expected to
Thereby, the planning of tomorrow’s transport of continue. Especially important is the formation of
goods and infrastructure can be made in an integrated Sound region. Here, the
accordance with future demands. metropolitan centre of future is developing with
In the following, scenarios for the development more than 3 m inhabitants. Norway is a Nordic
of Europe and the Baltic for the next 15 years are exception because of the great importance of the
outlined. oil. When it comes to oil, the Norwegian economy
will share the same fate as other great oil
producers.
Western Europe
In 2000 the GDP of Western Europe amounted to Central Europe and the Baltic Countries
USD 9,238 bn. That was more than 1/5 of the
world’s total GDP. (All the GDP’s in this report are Central Europe includes Poland, the Czech
in terms of purchasing power parity.) The Western Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. Central Europe
European economic growth rates have been and the Baltic countries has a total GDP of USD
between 1.5% and 3.5% annually for the past 710bn., which is less than Spain’s GDP today.
10 years. Up to the year 2015 the present EU The countries’ GDP has, however, experienced
countries can expect moderate growth rates of higher economic growth rates than Western
2-3% annually. However, the increasing integration Europe during the past years.
and distribution of work in the EU make it likely Already today, Central Europe’s and the Baltic
that the growth in intra-trade and transport of countries’ foreign trade is dominated by the
goods will continue the considerable growth rates trading with Western Europe. However, trading
of the 1980’s and 1990’s. This presupposes, remains low due to, among other factors
however, that large bottlenecks are avoided. the relatively low production and prosperity in
these countries. Within the next 10-15 years, the
trade volume is expected to increase heavily as a
Germany result of increased prosperity and participation in
Europe’s future distribution of work, but the trade
Germany is Europe’s largest economy and the pattern cannot be expected to undergo great
largest trading partner for the other 14 EU changes. It can be expected that in time, the
countries. Assuming growth in the new EU economies in the newly acceded countries to the
countries, Germany will, with its location, EU will adjust to the Western European level. The
strengthen its position even more as the economic populations are relatively well-educated and the
centre of gravity in the EU. The country borders production facilities are undergoing
on 9 European countries which has already reorganisation and modernisation. A favourable
caused traffic congestion in several parts of the likely scenario is economic growth rates of 5-6%
country due to the extensive intra-trade. annually. As a result of the participation in the
Germany is Europe’s large exporter of investment international distribution of work and the
goods. During a favourable economic integration in the EU, their trade and transport
development in which considerable investments will grow considerably faster than GDP. Several of
in the new EU countries’ as well as Russia’s the countries’ foreign trade and internal EU trade
production facilities can be expected, Germany’s may experience two-figured growth rates annually.
economy will therefore benefit from this at an It can be expected that Central Europe and the
earlier stage than other economies. Baltic countries will experience salary increases
and an adjustment to higher environmental and
labour market standards. Thus, a part of the
labour intensive production will be transferred to
Russia and other EU areas nearby.
2

5. The Baltic Countries Russia
The Baltic countries’ total GDP amounts to less In 2001 the GDP of Russia was approx. USD 1,120bn.
than USD 60bn. which corresponds to 1/3 of which is practically the same as the
Sweden’s GDP. The Baltic countries’ GDP has had total GDP of the CIS, the Baltic countries and
fluctuating growth rates, but on average it has Central Europe. From 1999 until 2002 the
increased by more than 5% annually for the past economic development has been very favourable
years. With the Baltic countries’ integration into with real growth rates of 5-9%. More than 40% of
the EU, the growth rates in GDP are estimated to Russia’s exports are made to Western Europe
be 5-7% for the coming years. Foreign trade can whereas 20% of imports originate in Western
be expected to increase by 7-10% annually. Europe. Exports are dominated by energy and raw
materials and imports are predominantly
The economy of Estonia has undergone manufactures. Russia has implemented a number
restructuring and today the private sector is of economic, political and administrative reforms
responsible for 3/4 of GDP. The service sector has for the past 10 years. A restructuring of the
increased to a total of 2/3 of GDP, but this industry production and changes in the production
has the largest growth rates. From 1997 to 2001 facilities has taken place and Russian economy
Estonia’s export of goods has increased by 84% can be trusted once again.
and the import of goods has increased by 52%.
Estonia’s foreign trade is dominated by the Nordic For the next 15 years, the geopolitical
countries. Estonia differs from the other Baltic developments may make Russia and the West
countries in that 1/3 of exports and imports involve strategic partners. Russia and the Western world
manufacturing equipment. may be integrated, but that will require political
will and courage in the EU and Russia as well as
Latvia’s primary and secondary sector’s share of expansion of the necessary infrastructure.
the economy has decreased, whereas the service
sector, which has experienced considerable growth, If the necessary preconditions are made available,
today is responsible for more than 70% of GDP. and Russia is not exposed to large external and
Transport and communication are of great internal shock effects, it is reasonable to expect
importance to the economy. Latvia’s foreign trade
that Russia’s GDP will increase by 5-8% annually
has increased by more than 1/3 from 1997 to 2001.
for the next few years. This will lead to a
More than half of Latvia’s foreign trade is with
GDP in 2015 which is 2-3 times as large as in 2002.
the EU. At the same time as Latvia’s trading has
An important precondition for the
changed from east to west, exports of
above-mentioned development is that the
manufactured articles have been replaced by
necessary infrastructure for future trading with
exports of raw materials and semi-manufactured
the EU is established.
articles. Imports are dominated by manufacturing
equipment.
For countries which participate in regional and
Lithuania’s service sector has increased to a total international distribution of work, the growth in
of 60% of GDP. A result of Lithuania’s location trade is bigger than the growth in GDP. With the
bordering on Poland, Latvia, Kaliningrad, Belarus above-mentioned expected growth in GDP this
and the Baltic is the considerable importance of may result in a growth in the value of Russia’s
transport in the service sector. Lithuania’s trading foreign trade of 7-10%. Trading with the EU can,
with the EU amounts to almost half of the however, become even more extensive if the
country’s exports and imports. A large part of the present 40% of trading with the EU increase to
remaining trading is made with Central European 60-70% of Russia’s foreign trade.
countries as well as the Baltic countries and CIS.
Russia is still in the middle of an extensive reform
process in many parts of society. A changed
Poland production structure is to be expected in 15 years
involving more manufactures more high
Poland’s GDP increased by 6% annually during the technology, changed agricultural structure, etc.
years 1993-97. Since then the GDP has increased by Extensive changes in the trading pattern can also
more than 4% annually. In 2000 Poland’s GDP be expected in terms of more trading with the
amounted to USD 328bn. A favourable scenario West and growing exports of consumer goods and
for Poland’s economic growth rate is estimated at other manufactured articles. However for a number
4-5% for the coming years, by which Poland’s GDP of years, raw materials will probably dominate
will be doubled in 15 years. More than three exports with regard to volumes, but much of the
quarters of Poland’s imports and exports consist energy transport will be by pipeline.
of trading with manufactured articles. A total of
90% of Poland’s foreign trade is made with other The development of domestic and foreign
European countries including Russia. For the investments will be of great importance. If large
coming years, a growth rate of 6-7% in Poland’s investments are made Russia’s foreign trade will
foreign trade can be expected. The growth in be able to go from a middle scenario to a high
Poland’s transport of goods will be higher due to growth scenario with two-figured growth rates
goods in transit. for a while.
3

6. Russia’s Transport of Goods
Russia’s domestic transport of goods is the EU, Caucasus and Central Asia. Therefore, it
predominantly east-westbound. Approx. 90% of might be expected that much transport of goods
the domestic transport of goods is done by rail. in transit will pass through Russia to and from
Just a little more than 2% is done by river these areas.
transport as the large Russian rivers are
north-southbound and only navigable part of the Kaliningrad
year. Russia’s physical geography is not conducive
to the extension of roads for long-distance With the enlargement of the EU to the east,
transport of goods. Kaliningrad will undoubtedly be on the political
agenda. Traffic policy can be an efficient regional
Russia’s railway network is long and extensive, but political control instrument which can create
it lacks maintenance. The railway has a different economic growth in Kaliningrad and expand the
track gauge than the West-European railways, so political relationship between Russia and the EU.
for free transport of goods over the borders to be
possible it is necessary to think intermodally. Kaliningrad might develop into a general
intermodal junction for the future east-west
For physical geographic reasons as well as historic transport of goods in the new Europe, but of
reasons, Russia is the natural connection between course that presupposes some sort of separate
agreement with the EU.
The harbour of Kaliningrad could be appointed a
Russia’s Domestic Transport of Goods
Arkhangel'sk
1400 HELSINKI
STOCKHOLM St Petersburg 1156 km
TALLINN
650 km
RÌGA Vladivostock
1333 km 7806 km
Kaliningrad MOSCOW
1200 Gdañsk VILNIUS MINSK
BERLIN WARSAW
1153 km
KIEV
PRAGUE
VIENNA
1000 BUDAPEST
ZAGREB
LJUBLJANA BELGRADE BUCHAREST Novorossiysk
SARAJEVO
SOFIA
800
future junction. A possible scenario could be that
600 Baltijsk is given the status of free port, where
transit goods is not cleared through customs.
Furthermore, the production of Kaliningrad could
be given special favourable trade terms for
exports to the EU countries. This would probably
400
result in large foreign investments in production,
Bn tons/km year 2001
trade and infrastructure.
With its central geographical location in the
200 Baltic, Kaliningrad has good possibilities for
developing into a transport junction. It would
then be an ideal place for companies to locate
themselves. Then Kaliningrad can develop into an
economically well-functioning centre and junction
0 in the Baltic region. Reloading for further
Rail Road Domestic Air
ship transport of goods to and from Poland, the Baltic
countries, Russia and Belarus can take place here.
Further transport can, depending on distance and
destination, be made by ship, rail, river transport,
Source: Goskomstat of Russia lorry or air.
4

8. Transport of Goods in
Europe
The main part of the European transport of goods and 5%, respectively, during the period 1990-2000.
takes place within Western Europe. In the period In 2000 the volume of exports and imports of
1990-2000 the volume of Western Europe’s goods increased by more than 15%, which was a
exports and imports increased by 6% annually. significantly higher number than in Western Europe
The volume of Western Europe’s exports and
imports reached two-figured growth rates in 2000.
The export of goods from Central and Eastern
.Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries is low
compared to that of Western Europe. However,
the volume of the export and import of goods
increased considerably during the extensive
changeover from planned economy towards
Environmental Impact
market economy in the 1990’s. Thus the volume of
exports and imports of goods increased by 7%
The transport sector creates a large number of
problems: Exhaust gasses contaminate the air
and the water. This affects general health as
European Transport of Goods well as the climate. Transport results in many
accidents and consequently personal tragedies.
Transport is noisy which apart from creating
irritation and stress also creates health problems.
Central and Eastern
To Aesthetically, many people find land-based
Europe, the Baltic
countries and CIS
Western Europe
traffic ugly. Traffic overload implicates large
infrastructure costs as well as loss of income for
both trade, industry and society.
From
The environmental impact of the different
means of transport differs to a large extent.
At long distances, transport by air and road has
a far higher impact on the environment than
Western Europe 1.654 129 transport by ship and rail. It is therefore very
unfortunate that the development of the EU
Central and Eastern traffic has been based on transport by road to
Europe, the Baltic 147 72
the extent which has been the case.
countries and CIS
There are economic as well as environmental
European transport of goods in bn USD Year 2000
arguments to give a higher priority to
long-distance transport of goods by ship and rail.
Source: WTO
Growth in the EU’s Transport The Environmental Impact of Traffic
170
205
200
160
150
Goods (2)(tkm) 150
140
Passengers (1)(pkm) 100
88
130
Euro/1000 tons km
120
50
GDP (at constant prices)
Indexed
110 19 17
0
Road Rail Aviation Waterborne
100
1985 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Upstream Process Air Pollution
The growth in EU´s transport of goods is higher Urban Effects Noise
than the growth in GDP and the transport of passengers. Nature & Landscape Accidents
Source: European Commission 2001b
Climate Change
Source: European Commission 2001a
6

10. Scenarios for Future European European GDP and transport of goods
GDP and Transport of Goods today
Europe’s GDP and transport of goods distributed
by region are shown in the following figures.
The area of the circles shows the relative size of
the GDP, and the width of the arrows shows the
relative sizes of the regions' transport of goods.
Two scenarios for Europe’s GDP and transport of
goods as it might look in 15 years have been
outlined.
Scenario 1 shows Europe in 15 years using a
cautious projection of Europe’s present
development. Western Europe’s GDP has been
projected to increase by 2% annually. The GDP of
Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic
countries is projected to increase by 3% annually. Source: WTO, CIA
The rate of growth within transport of goods has
been limited to 5% annually. This scenario is
based on the assumption that the traffic capacity
for handling potential trade and transport of Scenario 1: European GDP and
goods will be lacking in future. transport of goods in
15 years
Scenario 2 shows Europe in 15 years if the
potential is utilised and the transportation
systems work. This scenario is based on the
assumption that Europe’s integration will create
new production structures and trade patterns in
Central and Eastern Europe, CIS and the Baltic
countries. These countries are part of Europe’s
new distribution of work, and the production is
continuously being restructured. Therefore, the
projected rates of growth should not be seen as
an expression of a linear development. In
this scenario the GDP of Central and Eastern
Europe, CIS and the Baltic countries has been
projected to increase by 6% annually. The GDP of
Western Europe has been projected to increase
by 3% annually. This is based on the assumption
that Western Europe will benefit from the high
rates of growth in the other countries.
The transport of goods has been projected to
increase by 10% annually, but merely by 6%
annually within Western Europe. This scenario Scenario 2: European GDP and
implies that efficient trade and transport transport of goods in
systems are established. 15 years
A full utilisation of Europe’s growth potential requires that
efficient trade and transport systems will be established.
8

11. Flexible Planning Separation of the transport of
passengers and goods
As a consequence of the heavily increasing A contribution to the solution of Europe’s
transport volumes and in recognition of how extensive traffic problems could be a technical
significant traffic is to growth and integration in and administrative separation of the transport
the EU, traffic and infrastructure will be put in of passengers and goods. If the separation is
focus. carried out, the present roads and line sections
will have a larger capacity for the transport of
Large public works are very passengers.
time-consuming
The growth in long-distance transport of goods
Building roads and rails is expensive as well as by road cannot be increased and should
time-consuming. Aiming for an extension of these therefore be transferred to efficient corridors.
transport methods will therefore not realistically Especially where it is possible to establish goods
solve the traffic problems within a reasonable harbours and put ferries in service that will be
number of years, not even with the help of heavy cheaper, faster and more flexible than building
investments. entirely new motorways and rail sections.
The planning alone would take a year.
A new intermodal transport structure may
Furthermore, it will be necessary to counteract connect and increase European transport of
the environmental impact of the increasing goods. A future traffic system may be based on
volumes of traffic. We will probably see the intermodality and traffic junctions. The starting
introduction of more user charges, especially on point of the traffic system could be existing rail
transport by road. On the whole it is to be networks, harbours, roads and rivers. Especially in
expected that to a large extent transport costs Central Europe, the Baltic countries and Russia
will reflect social costs, e.g. the environmental the existing infrastructure for transport of goods
consequences. by rail and ship can be upgraded for increasing
That will create a large potential for transport of volumes of goods.
goods by means of short sea shipping, transport
by rail and transport by inland waterways.
9

12. Intermodality
Through the years, traffic planning has been
divided into sectors in most countries. That has
led to a lack of coherence, customer information
and future planning. The individual subsectors
have been working independently of each other
and have often been competing between
themselves. Furthermore, the individual sectors in
Europe have laboured under being nationally
based. The result has been a lack of integration
and synergi between the different methods of
transport and across the borders which has
caused customer irritation as well as extensive
social and business economic losses.
Infrastructure Divided into Sectors Intermodal Infrastructure
Road
Road
Ship
Ship
Rail
Rail
Air
Air
Politically, there is a gradual realisation of the A new intermodal transport structure may
necessity of establishing a general holistic traffic create coherence and growth within transport of
planning which runs across sectors and is based goods in the Baltic region and between Western
on cross-sector junctions. This requires an Europe and Russia. A prerequisite that
entirely new political thinking regarding traffic. intermodality will work efficiently is that
An international connection between transport international standards are established. These
by road, ship, rail and air must be created, and standards should apply across all sectors so that a
here intermodality is the prerequisite for it to reloading between the individual transport
work. Intermodality creates synergy and methods and between the individual countries
coherence between the different methods of can take place.
transport and between the standards of the Efficient intermodal junctions require technical
various countries. standardisations as well as administrative
simplifications.
10

13. Intermodality
Flexibility between transport methods
Goods arrive by lorry Reloaded to train Reloaded to ship
Transport by ship
Reloaded to train Transport by train Goods delivered by lorry
Junctions
Reloading of goods at traffic junctions is the most
profitable thing to do. The traffic junctions are
connected by means of a general route network.
Example:
If all 80 points around the Baltic are to be If, however, 6 junctions are established, they can
connected with each other, it would require 3160 be connected with each other by means of 15
routes. Fig. A and B. larger routes. Fig. C.
Obviously that is untenable as concerns volume,
economy and environment. If a superjunction is established, the 80 points can
be connected by means of 5 junctions and one
superjunction with 5 superroutes. Fig. D.
A B C D
11

14. The Intermodal Goods
Harbour Year 2015
March 17, 2015: The giant ship “Baltica”, which place at the ship’s stern and the high approach
has a capacity of 10,000 lane meter, has just ramps for the top decks are also put into place.
arrived from the Russian harbour Ust-Luga at Right after this the fast trailer trucks drive up the
St Petersburg and has moored at the large ramp in order to fetch the double-stacked
container quay. containers one by one from the top decks.
Within a few minutes the line of container cranes
is removing the first containers from the top deck
and lifting them onto the big conveyor which
runs across the railway track along the quay.
From here the smaller cranes are ready to lift the
containers onto the waiting goods train.
At the same time the bridge leaf is lowered into
12

15. And the noise from the many trailer trucks mixes so many lorries from the roads
with the roar from the many lorries which drive onto ship and railway that once again there is
off the ferry down the bridge leaf. Inside the room on the EU roads for the still growing
ship there is also a lot of activities on the five number of private cars – without having to
decks and the internal ramps with stacked expand the road network to such a large extent
containers, trailers or lorries, respectively. as was feared back in the beginning of the
century.
After 2 1/2 hour the ship has been emptied of
cargo. One of the trains drives in the direction of
the big traffic junction in Duisburg where trailers
and containers are redistributed again onto
lorries which transport the goods the final
distance to the customers.
Another train is heading for Lyon where the
goods are also reloaded onto lorries so that they
can transport the goods the final distance to
the customer.
And the lorries which drove directly off the ship
have already been cleared and are heading
directly for the customers, which typically live
within a radius of three or four hundred
kilometres from the harbour.
Meanwhile the ship is being loaded. The small
cranes bring containers from the storage space
as well as directly from the train onto the
conveyor by the big cranes which in turn lift the
containers onto the ship. Lorries drive onboard
and containers which have already been
double-stacked at the storage space are driven
on board.
After six hours the ship has been loaded, the
bridge leaf has been raised and the moorings
have been cast off.
The approx. 100 lorry drivers are getting settled
for the night. After about 24 hours the ship will
arrive in Ust-Luga where the same procedure will
be repeated.
The lorries transport goods directly to
St. Petersburg whereas the greater part of the
goods headed for Moscow, is loaded onto
railway carriages. Shortly afterwards, it is then
transported via the 1000 km long broad-gauged
railway line to Moscow where the lorries take
over once again to bring the goods all the way
to the customers.
This system has now worked for some years and
spread to all the large harbour junctions in the
Baltic region. It has paved the way for a very
substantial growth in the transport of goods
between the West and the East and has removed
13

16. Baltic Intermodal
Junctions
In future the Baltic may become a freight corridor The Baltic intermodal junctions will probably
for parts of the transport of goods between mainly be located at the large transport corridors,
Eastern and Western Europe. The freight corridor especially where roads, railways and rivers meet.
connects the Baltic east-westbound transport Expectations are that intermodal junctions of
routes with the European north-southbound various sizes will be established in all countries
flow of goods. The Baltic intermodal junctions can around the Baltic.
be connected with other intermodal junctions in
Europe. Possible transport routes via the Baltic
might be as follows: Duisburg – Warsaw;
Paris – Moscow; Lyon – St Petersburg;
London – Bratislava.
Container volumes in Thousand TEUs
West 1960
870 1190
Finland
Norway
Overseas 20430
R/R Estonia
R/R Russia
C
Sweden C
Latavia
Lithuania
Denmark East 960
Rus
United
Ireland Belarus 220
Kingdom
Netherlands
Poland 740
Germany
Belgium
Czech. Rep. Ukraine
9610 Slovakia
Growth 10820
Moldavia
since 1992 France Switzerland Austria Hungary
Slovenia Romania
Croatia
Italia
Bosnia
Herzeg.
Yugoslavia
Bulgaria
Macedonia
Albania
Portugal Spain
Greece
Turkey
Volumes 1992 Growth 1992-2001
Source: Scandlines
The container volumes handled in the North Sea ports are much larger than the volumes handled in the Baltic, especially in the eastern
Baltic. However, the growth from 1992 to 2001 (shown in blue) has proven to be remarkably stronger in the eastern Baltic with growth
rates of up to 300%.
The future transport of goods between north and south will cross over transport of goods between east and west in the Fehmarn Belt.
An intermodal junction – a hub – could be established here for serving deep sea container carriers as well as Baltic intermodal ships,
railways and lorries.
14

17. Intermodal junction at Fehmarn Belt
A harbour in the hinterland of Fehmarn Belt may bridge combined with the blue motorways of the
become an important intermodal junction in the Baltic will change the present trading structures
Baltic region. The Fehmarn Belt bridge will and transport flows.
probably be under construction in 2015.
Here the north-southbound transport of goods Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Finland’s present
and passengers will cross the Baltic large ports may develop into intermodal junctions.
east-westbound transport of goods. If such a They may become part of an efficient transport
superjunction is aimed for, the two routes will network around the Baltic which can expand the
create a mutual synergy and growth in the existing trade flows as well as create new trade
volumes of transport. With the construction of the flows with changed trading patterns.
Fehmarn Belt bridge an intermodal junction will Which of the Nordic ports will develop into future
benefit from the traffic extension. There will be intermodal junctions will to a large extent depend
large volumes of goods coming from the north on the interaction between political
and the south. If extended, the intermodal decision-makers and private companies.
junction can also handle considerable volumes of
Europe’s east-westbound transport of goods as
well as containers from deep sea container carriers.
Russia
The large oil port Primorsk and the goods port
The Nordic Intermodal Junctions Ust Luga are situated at St Petersburg. These
ports will most likely play an important part in the
The development of a Baltic region can be future Baltic network of intermodal junctions.
expected to result in a relatively large increase in The ports are Russia’s and St Petersburg’s direct
the trade between the Nordic and the other link to the Baltic, but they are not ice-free during
Baltic countries. The preconditions will look much winter. The ports have a large hinterland and
different after the enlargement of the EU after good connections to Russia’s infrastructure. The
which the Baltic will become an integrated part of location close to Finland and Estonia enables close
the EU. Furthermore, a coming Fehmarn Belt cooperation with the ports nearby.
Ice cover in the Baltic Sea
WHITE
SEA
NORWEGIAN
SEA
Sankt Peterburg
HELSINKI (St Petersburg)
TALLINN
OSLO
STOCKHOLM MOSKVA
(Moscow)
RÌGA
NORTH
SEA BALTIC
SEA
KØBENHAVN VILNIUS
(Copenhagen) Kaliningrad MINSK
Hamburg
WARSZAWA
BERLIN (Warsaw)
Average winter 1961-1990
Source: Swedish Maritime Administration

18. Kaliningrad Lithuania
The port of Baltijsk may become an important Lithuania’s infrastructure is dominated by roads.
intermodal junction connecting Western Europe A large part of the transport of goods is, however,
with the Baltic and Russia as well as Eastern and made by train, especially transit goods between
Central Europe. A precondition is heavy Kaliningrad and Russia. Klaipeda is the largest
investments in the expansion of the harbour and port of Lithuania. It is ice-free all year round and
infrastructure with railway, road, ship and perhaps has a railway connection to Russia. The port is an
airplane. The future possibilities will among other economic free zone and is situated relatively close
things depend on the political agreements to the ports of Baltijsk and Gdansk. The location
between the EU and Russia in connection with the of the port in relation to freight routes and
enlargement of the EU. infrastructure may increase its importance as a
regional intermodal junction.
Poland
Poland borders on several countries and after the
accession to the EU, increased trade and
distribution of work in the surroundings are to be
expected. Poland can therefore expect a large
growth in the future transport of goods both as a
result of its foreign trade and in the form of
transit goods. The large ports of Poland, Stettin
and Gdansk, are today intermodal junctions with
ferry services which service the Baltic transport of
goods.
The ports’ importance as intermodal junctions
must be expected to grow. The ports are
connected to the European river transport system
by the rivers Oder and Wista
Estonia
The capital of Estonia, Tallinn, is situated in the
Gulf of Finland across Helsinki. The ports near
Tallinn are privatised and experience large
increases in the volumes of goods. The ports are
ice-free and being modernised. It is expected that
the port of Muuga or another of the large ports
will develop into a regional intermodal junction
closely integrated with the surrounding ports.
Latvia
The ports of Latvia handle larger volumes of
goods than the other Baltic and Russian ports in
the Baltic altogether. The ports of Ventspils,
Liepaja and Riga are connected to Moscow by
means of railway. Furthermore, Riga is connected
to Moscow by main road. When the Via Baltica
road project is completed, Finland will be
connected by road to Poland and Germany via
the Baltic countries. An intermodal junction in
Latvia can connect the Baltic north-southbound
transport routes and east-westbound transport
routes between Western Europe and Russia.
16

19. Source Material
CIA: The World Fact Book, Various Country Analyses
Source to all GDP figures in this publication.
Central Intelligence Agency;
Office of Public Affairs; Washington, D.C. 20505
The Economist Intelligence Unit: Various Country
Profiles 2002
The Economist Intelligence Unit,
15 Regent St., London SW1Y 4LR, UK.
European Conference of Ministers of
Transport (2002): Trends in the transport
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OECD Publications Service,
2 rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France
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OECD Publications Service,
2 rue André Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France
European Commission. Directorate-General
for Energy and Transport, in co-operation with
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Energy and Transport in Figures 2001. Table 3.1.1.
The Office for Official Publications of the European
Communities, 2, rue Mercier, L-2985 Luxembourg
European Commission (2001b). White Paper:
European Transport Policy for 2010:
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The Office for Official Publications of the European
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Handbook "RUSSIA 2002". Table:
Transportation and Turnover of Goods by
General-Purpose Transport Types.
Goskomstat, Moscow, Myasnitskaya st. 39.
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning (2002):
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Trafik og fremtidsforskning.
Instituttet for Fremtidsforskning,
Nørre Farimagsgade 65, 1364 København K
OECD (2002): OECD Economic Surveys 2001-2002,
Various Country Surveys
OECD Publications,
2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.
WTO Statistics Division (2001):
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WTO Publications, WTO, 154, rue de Lausanne,
CH-1211 Geneva 21.
17