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U.S. oil and gas export scenario’s: What are the opportunities for Vopak?
Capital Markets Day, 10 December 2013
Dick Richelle, Division President Americas
Forward-looking statements
This presentation contains ‘forward-looking statements’, based on currently available plans and forecasts. By
their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and
depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future, and Vopak cannot guarantee the accuracy
and completeness of forward-looking statements.
These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, factors affecting the realization of ambitions and
financial expectations, developments regarding the potential capital raising, exceptional income and expense
items, operational developments and trading conditions, economic, political and foreign exchange
developments and changes to IFRS reporting rules.
Vopak’s EBITDA ambition does not represent a forecast or any expectation of future results or financial
performance.
Statements of a forward-looking nature issued by the company must always be assessed in the context of the
events, risks and uncertainties of the markets and environments in which Vopak operates. These factors could
lead to actual results being materially different from those expected, and Vopak does not undertake to publicly
update or revise any of these forward-looking statements.

2

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Dick Richelle
President, Vopak Americas
Name

Dick Richelle

Age

43

Education

Dick holds a doctoral degree Business Economics

from Erasmus University in Rotterdam.
Career

Dick joined Vopak in 1995 and has held various
(general) management positions in Brazil, Mexico and the
Netherlands. He was appointed as President Vopak

North America in 2009.

3

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Americas
Positive developments at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Venezuela,
with downside in Los Angeles (U.S.) and Brazil
Storage Capacity
In million cbm
U.S. Gulf Coast
U.S. West Coast
U.S. East Coast
Canada
Mexico*

Occupancy rate***
In percent
94.0

90.0

YTD 2012

1.3

YTD 2013

0.4
0.4
0.2
0.3

EBIT****
In EUR million

0.3

Other**

46.5

YTD 2013

0.4

Total

49.5

YTD 2012

Brazil

3.3

* Excluding LNG Altamira (0.3 million cbm); ** Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Chili; *** Subsidiaries only;
**** Including net result from joint ventures and associates; excluding exceptional items.
Note: Due to the retrospective application of the Revised IAS 19, EBIT for 2012 has been restated.
4

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

-4%

-6%
Contents

Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area
Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area
Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area

5

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Main market developments
The shale revolution and biofuels developments
Shale gas

Tight oil

 The North American shale revolution

6

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

Biofuels

 Government mandates
drive biofuels trade
The shale revolution
It has strengthened the (export) growth and competitiveness of
the U.S. oil and gas industry
Crude oil production
In Mb/d
6.4

9.9

2012

2020

+55%

Natural gas production
In Tcf
7.5

Current shale plays
Stacked plays
Shallowest / youngest
Intermediate depth / age
Deepest / oldest
* Mixed shale and chalk play
** Mixed shale and limestone play
*** Mixed shale and tight dolostonesiltstone-sandstone play

Prospective shale plays

16.7

+123%

2012
2020
NGL production
In Mb/d
1.6

3.5

+119%

Basins

2012
Source: US Ministry of Energy; ICP International; EIA.
7

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

2020
Natural gas as a cheap feedstock
North America positioned as second lowest-cost producer of
ethylene-intensive chemicals globally
$1550
West
Northeast Europe
Asia

$1400
$1250
$1100

Indian
subcontinent

$ 950

Southeast Asia

$ 800
$ 650
U.S. Ethane

$ 500
$ 350

North America

2012
ethylene
demand

Middle East

$ 200

$

50
0

20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Cumulative ethylene capacity (million metric tons)

Note: Ethylene cash costs, U.S. Dollars per metric ton; 2012 WTI crude oil is US$ 105 per barrel; average feedstock basis.
Source: IHS Chemical.
8

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

160
Natural gas as cheap feedstock
New ethylene capacity and downstream plants are currently
under construction or consideration
Capacity announced
Kt/y

Chocolate Bayou



Ethylene expansion



La Porte



Ethylene expansion



Geismar



Ethylene expansion



Channelview



Ethylene expansion



Corpus Christi

6



Ethylene expansion



Baytown

7



Ethylene cracker



Point Comfort

8



Ethylene cracker



Freeport

9



Ethylene cracker



Cedar Bayou

10



Ethylene cracker



Ingleside

11



Ethylene cracker



Cedar Bayou

4
113 363

6 7 8
1,500

9

10 11

1,500 1,500 1,500

800

Total
Source: Vopak analysis
9



5

363 272

4 5

2016-2020

Ethylene expansion

3

105

2 3

2015



2
2014

Location in
Texas (US)

1

1
2013

Project

Project
operator

Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

544

8,560
Shale gas impact
Potential increasing U.S. Gulf Coast ethylene and LPG exports

Potential ethylene exports and capacity
In millions tons

Potential LPG exports and capacity
In millions tons
25

1.6

20

1.2

15

0.8
10

0.4

5
0

0.0
2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2012

2014

Export potential
Committed storage capacity
Source: Vopak analysis
10 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

2016

2018

2020

2022
Tight oil impact
Source and composition of North America crude oil supply is
changing

FSU

United States
Middle East

Africa
Latin America

Key U.S. crude oil
trade flow (2012)
Potential key U.S. crude
oil trade flow (2020)
Source: Wood McKenzie; EIA; Purvin&Gertz
11 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

 Expected decreasing
crude oil imports into
U.S. Gulf Coast from
Latin America, Mexico
and Middle East
 Heavy crude oil imports
remain
 Expected increase in
intra-regional trade flows

 It is not allowed to export
crude oil out of the U.S.
(presidential approval)
Tight oil impact
Source and composition of North America crude oil supply
impact future US crude oil flows
Canadian Oil Sands

WA

MT

ME

ND
MN

OR

PADD 4:
RockyWY
Mountain

ID

PADD 5:
NV
West Coast

NH
SO

WI

CT

IA

CO

NJ
DC

OH

IN

DE
WV
KY

TH
AZ

OK
AR

NM

PADD 3:
Gulf TX
Coast
U.S. refinery
Forecast U.S. crude
oil trade flow (2020)
Source: US Department of Transportation
12 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

VA

PADD 1:
East
NC
Coast

MO

KS

SC

MS

AL

GA

LA

FL

RI
NYC

PA

PADD 2:
IL
Midwest

UT

MA

NY
MI

NE

CA

VT

MD
Tight oil impact: Competitive CPP exports
Potential expansion of splitter capacity might stimulate
distillates and naphtha exports
USGC Refined Products Flows
Volume (MMT)
60

Actual 2012
Low Case 2020
High Case 2020

50
40
30
20
10
0

Distillate exports
Source: Vopak analysis
13 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

Gasoline exports

Fuel oil exports

Naphtha exports
Biofuels impact
A growing commodity going forward, as part of transport fuel
composition
U.S.

400

Europe

 Volumes increased rapidly

600

with obligatory mandates in
Europe and North America
in early 2000s

100

200

0
0

2002 2012 2022

2002 2012 2022

 Composition of declining
gasoline demand in the
U.S. is changing

150

Brazil

 Biofuels are expected to
stay and behave like typical
commodity

50
0

2002 2012 2022
Note: Transport fuel composition in million tons.
Source: Wood Mackenzie; Vopak analysis
14 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

Biodiesel
Diesel

Ethanol
Gasoline
Contents

Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area
Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area
Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area

15 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Vopak position in U.S. Gulf Coast area
Existing presence and expansion opportunities
Galena Park (100%)
 170,032 cbm
 86 tanks; 1 ship dock
 12 truck bays; 11 rail spots
Deer Park (100%)
 1,115,103 cbm
 242 tanks; 5 ship docks
 22 truck bays;
 23 rail spots; 40 car ethanol unit train rack
Potential brownfield project Deer Park (100%)
 3.3 acre waterfront for 1 ship dock
 18.7 acres inland site

Potential greenfield projects (100%)
 108 acre inland site
 23 acre marine site
 Unit train capabilities (up to 120 cars)
 Multiple ship docks (deep water)

16 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Competition in U.S. Gulf Coast area
Examples of storage capacity currently under construction
or consideration

Oiltanking Partners
announces $200M in
expansion projects

Kinder Morgan begins
service at BOSTCO Oil
Terminal on Houston
Ship Channel
17 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Contents

Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area
Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area
Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area

18 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
Growth opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area
At existing terminals and two additional land plots
(Crude) oil

Existing
terminals
and
brownfield

Chemicals / gasses*

Biofuels

 To a lesser extent

 Potential

 Potential

opportunities,
amongst others
through industrial
pipeline
connections

 Potential
Greenfield
opportunities



opportunities in
both crude oil and
clean petroleum
products
Through pipeline
and unit train
capability

* Excluding LNG.
19 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

 Potential
opportunities for
gasses through
pipeline
connections

opportunities for
ethanol and
biodiesel

 Potential
opportunities for
ethanol through
unit train
Critical success factors
Growth opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area
1▪ Pipeline connection

3▪ Time to market or first
mover advantage
20 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013

2▪ Right partner for the

right reason
Royal Vopak
Westerlaan 10

Tel: +31 10 4002911

3016 CK Rotterdam

Fax: +31 10 4139829

The Netherlands

www.vopak.com

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Royal Vopak - Capital Markets Day 2013 - Dick Richelle

  • 1. U.S. oil and gas export scenario’s: What are the opportunities for Vopak? Capital Markets Day, 10 December 2013 Dick Richelle, Division President Americas
  • 2. Forward-looking statements This presentation contains ‘forward-looking statements’, based on currently available plans and forecasts. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future, and Vopak cannot guarantee the accuracy and completeness of forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, factors affecting the realization of ambitions and financial expectations, developments regarding the potential capital raising, exceptional income and expense items, operational developments and trading conditions, economic, political and foreign exchange developments and changes to IFRS reporting rules. Vopak’s EBITDA ambition does not represent a forecast or any expectation of future results or financial performance. Statements of a forward-looking nature issued by the company must always be assessed in the context of the events, risks and uncertainties of the markets and environments in which Vopak operates. These factors could lead to actual results being materially different from those expected, and Vopak does not undertake to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements. 2 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 3. Dick Richelle President, Vopak Americas Name Dick Richelle Age 43 Education Dick holds a doctoral degree Business Economics from Erasmus University in Rotterdam. Career Dick joined Vopak in 1995 and has held various (general) management positions in Brazil, Mexico and the Netherlands. He was appointed as President Vopak North America in 2009. 3 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 4. Americas Positive developments at the U.S. Gulf Coast and Venezuela, with downside in Los Angeles (U.S.) and Brazil Storage Capacity In million cbm U.S. Gulf Coast U.S. West Coast U.S. East Coast Canada Mexico* Occupancy rate*** In percent 94.0 90.0 YTD 2012 1.3 YTD 2013 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 EBIT**** In EUR million 0.3 Other** 46.5 YTD 2013 0.4 Total 49.5 YTD 2012 Brazil 3.3 * Excluding LNG Altamira (0.3 million cbm); ** Columbia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru and Chili; *** Subsidiaries only; **** Including net result from joint ventures and associates; excluding exceptional items. Note: Due to the retrospective application of the Revised IAS 19, EBIT for 2012 has been restated. 4 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 -4% -6%
  • 5. Contents Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 5 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 6. Main market developments The shale revolution and biofuels developments Shale gas Tight oil  The North American shale revolution 6 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 Biofuels  Government mandates drive biofuels trade
  • 7. The shale revolution It has strengthened the (export) growth and competitiveness of the U.S. oil and gas industry Crude oil production In Mb/d 6.4 9.9 2012 2020 +55% Natural gas production In Tcf 7.5 Current shale plays Stacked plays Shallowest / youngest Intermediate depth / age Deepest / oldest * Mixed shale and chalk play ** Mixed shale and limestone play *** Mixed shale and tight dolostonesiltstone-sandstone play Prospective shale plays 16.7 +123% 2012 2020 NGL production In Mb/d 1.6 3.5 +119% Basins 2012 Source: US Ministry of Energy; ICP International; EIA. 7 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 2020
  • 8. Natural gas as a cheap feedstock North America positioned as second lowest-cost producer of ethylene-intensive chemicals globally $1550 West Northeast Europe Asia $1400 $1250 $1100 Indian subcontinent $ 950 Southeast Asia $ 800 $ 650 U.S. Ethane $ 500 $ 350 North America 2012 ethylene demand Middle East $ 200 $ 50 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Cumulative ethylene capacity (million metric tons) Note: Ethylene cash costs, U.S. Dollars per metric ton; 2012 WTI crude oil is US$ 105 per barrel; average feedstock basis. Source: IHS Chemical. 8 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 160
  • 9. Natural gas as cheap feedstock New ethylene capacity and downstream plants are currently under construction or consideration Capacity announced Kt/y Chocolate Bayou  Ethylene expansion  La Porte  Ethylene expansion  Geismar  Ethylene expansion  Channelview  Ethylene expansion  Corpus Christi 6  Ethylene expansion  Baytown 7  Ethylene cracker  Point Comfort 8  Ethylene cracker  Freeport 9  Ethylene cracker  Cedar Bayou 10  Ethylene cracker  Ingleside 11  Ethylene cracker  Cedar Bayou 4 113 363 6 7 8 1,500 9 10 11 1,500 1,500 1,500 800 Total Source: Vopak analysis 9  5 363 272 4 5 2016-2020 Ethylene expansion 3 105 2 3 2015  2 2014 Location in Texas (US) 1 1 2013 Project Project operator Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 544 8,560
  • 10. Shale gas impact Potential increasing U.S. Gulf Coast ethylene and LPG exports Potential ethylene exports and capacity In millions tons Potential LPG exports and capacity In millions tons 25 1.6 20 1.2 15 0.8 10 0.4 5 0 0.0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2012 2014 Export potential Committed storage capacity Source: Vopak analysis 10 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 2016 2018 2020 2022
  • 11. Tight oil impact Source and composition of North America crude oil supply is changing FSU United States Middle East Africa Latin America Key U.S. crude oil trade flow (2012) Potential key U.S. crude oil trade flow (2020) Source: Wood McKenzie; EIA; Purvin&Gertz 11 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013  Expected decreasing crude oil imports into U.S. Gulf Coast from Latin America, Mexico and Middle East  Heavy crude oil imports remain  Expected increase in intra-regional trade flows  It is not allowed to export crude oil out of the U.S. (presidential approval)
  • 12. Tight oil impact Source and composition of North America crude oil supply impact future US crude oil flows Canadian Oil Sands WA MT ME ND MN OR PADD 4: RockyWY Mountain ID PADD 5: NV West Coast NH SO WI CT IA CO NJ DC OH IN DE WV KY TH AZ OK AR NM PADD 3: Gulf TX Coast U.S. refinery Forecast U.S. crude oil trade flow (2020) Source: US Department of Transportation 12 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 VA PADD 1: East NC Coast MO KS SC MS AL GA LA FL RI NYC PA PADD 2: IL Midwest UT MA NY MI NE CA VT MD
  • 13. Tight oil impact: Competitive CPP exports Potential expansion of splitter capacity might stimulate distillates and naphtha exports USGC Refined Products Flows Volume (MMT) 60 Actual 2012 Low Case 2020 High Case 2020 50 40 30 20 10 0 Distillate exports Source: Vopak analysis 13 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 Gasoline exports Fuel oil exports Naphtha exports
  • 14. Biofuels impact A growing commodity going forward, as part of transport fuel composition U.S. 400 Europe  Volumes increased rapidly 600 with obligatory mandates in Europe and North America in early 2000s 100 200 0 0 2002 2012 2022 2002 2012 2022  Composition of declining gasoline demand in the U.S. is changing 150 Brazil  Biofuels are expected to stay and behave like typical commodity 50 0 2002 2012 2022 Note: Transport fuel composition in million tons. Source: Wood Mackenzie; Vopak analysis 14 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 Biodiesel Diesel Ethanol Gasoline
  • 15. Contents Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 15 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 16. Vopak position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Existing presence and expansion opportunities Galena Park (100%)  170,032 cbm  86 tanks; 1 ship dock  12 truck bays; 11 rail spots Deer Park (100%)  1,115,103 cbm  242 tanks; 5 ship docks  22 truck bays;  23 rail spots; 40 car ethanol unit train rack Potential brownfield project Deer Park (100%)  3.3 acre waterfront for 1 ship dock  18.7 acres inland site Potential greenfield projects (100%)  108 acre inland site  23 acre marine site  Unit train capabilities (up to 120 cars)  Multiple ship docks (deep water) 16 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 17. Competition in U.S. Gulf Coast area Examples of storage capacity currently under construction or consideration Oiltanking Partners announces $200M in expansion projects Kinder Morgan begins service at BOSTCO Oil Terminal on Houston Ship Channel 17 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 18. Contents Main market developments U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s position in U.S. Gulf Coast area Vopak’s opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 18 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013
  • 19. Growth opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area At existing terminals and two additional land plots (Crude) oil Existing terminals and brownfield Chemicals / gasses* Biofuels  To a lesser extent  Potential  Potential opportunities, amongst others through industrial pipeline connections  Potential Greenfield opportunities  opportunities in both crude oil and clean petroleum products Through pipeline and unit train capability * Excluding LNG. 19 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013  Potential opportunities for gasses through pipeline connections opportunities for ethanol and biodiesel  Potential opportunities for ethanol through unit train
  • 20. Critical success factors Growth opportunities in U.S. Gulf Coast area 1▪ Pipeline connection 3▪ Time to market or first mover advantage 20 Capital Markets Day 10 December 2013 2▪ Right partner for the right reason
  • 21. Royal Vopak Westerlaan 10 Tel: +31 10 4002911 3016 CK Rotterdam Fax: +31 10 4139829 The Netherlands www.vopak.com