Presentation from CMIS11 by Antonio Donini from Tufts University

1. Civ-mil and the future of Humanitarian
Action
•
• What has changed in
the last ten years
• What can we expect in
the next ten years
•

2. Follow the money
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2
Non-DAC donors DAC donors

3. Conflict Rules!
12 90%
79.5% 81.4%
77.1% 77.3% 76.2% 75.3% 74.5% 80%
10
US$ billion (constant 2008 prices)
65.3% 70%
59.2% 60.5%
8 60%
47.1%
50%
6
40%
4 30%
20%
2
10%
0 0%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total humanitarian aid to conflict-affected countries
Total humanitarian aid to non-conflict countries
Total country-allocable humanitarian aid
Total ODA to conflict affected states as a share of total country-allocable ODA
Source: Development Initiatives 2011 from OECD DAC data

4. Limbo or Purgatory?

5. Attacks relative to aid worker
population in the field
Global attack rates per 10,000
10
8
6
4
2
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Stoddard et al. 2009

6. Haiti

7. Pakistan: 2005 earthquake

8. Pakistan: conflict displacement

9. Pakistan: floods

10. Afghanistan
Afghanistan

11. …some are giving “Humanitarian” a
bad name
While the humanitarians are….

12. …in their fortified aid compounds

13. Where do we go from here?

14. 3 mega trends…
• Humanitarian assistance is
up, humanitarianism is down.
• Universalism is
down, sovereignty/nationalism is up
• Conflict is down, “natural” disasters are
up

15. The importance of principles