From the Food Security Forum 2014: Good food, good health: delivering the benefits of food security in Australia and beyond - 17 March 2014

1. Meeting the C21st Food
Challenge
Julian Cribb FTSE
Food Security Forum
Sydney University
March 17, 2014

2. A ‘wicked’ problem...
DEMAND:
 216,000 more people every
day
 More babies + longer lives
 Population >11 bn by 2100
 Meat demand soaring in NICs
 Food demand +100% by
2060s
 -40% climate penalty by 2100
LIMITATIONS:
 ‘Peak water’
 ‘Peak land’
 ‘Peak oil’
 ‘Peak P’
 ‘Peak fish’
 ‘R&D drought’
 ‘Capital drought’
 ‘Climate extinction’

3. Peak water
Disappearing rivers
Vanishing lakes
Groundwater mining
Shrinking glaciers
“Current estimates indicate we will not
have enough water to feed ourselves in
25 years time...”
– Colin Chartres, IWMI

4. Warnings
“Over the next two decades, the average
supply of water per person will drop by a third,
possibly condemning millions to an avoidable
premature death.” - Nature
"A shortage of water could spell increased
conflicts in the future.” - Ban Ki-Moon, UN
“Many countries will almost certainly
experience water problems and state
failure, and increased regional tensions,”
- US National Intelligence Estimate

5. The struggle for water
 Energy sector - tripling
by 2050
 Cities - doubling by
2050
 Minerals processing -
doubling by 2050
 Manufacturing
 Environment
 …..how much is left for
farmers and food?

6. Peak Land : 2001?
World farming area has shrunk by 540,000 sq kms in the
past decade.
4.94
4.88
4.85
4.86
4.87
4.88
4.89
4.9
4.91
4.92
4.93
4.94
4.95
Year 2000-2009

7. Unsustainable: 10 kilos of soil lost
for every meal eaten
“The Earth is losing topsoil at a rate of 75
to 100 GT. per year. If soil loss continues
at present rates, it is estimated that there
is only another 48 years of topsoil left.”
- Marler & Wallin, Nutrition Security Institute, USA, 2006

8. “... land and water
systems now face the
risk of progressive
breakdown of their
productive capacity
due to excessive
demographic
pressure and
unsustainable
agricultural
practices.”
- FAO SOLAW Report 2011

9. Megacities: mega-risks
By 2050...
7.7 billion will live in cities
Total urban area = China
Urban water use 2800 cu kms
Cities cannot feed themselves
By 2030...

10. Peak oil
Car
numbers
growing
8x faster
than oil
supplies
Food & oil prices are
in lockstep

11. Why we must recycle nutrients
Peak phosphorus 
< 30-50% of
world’s food is
currently wasted
or lost post-
harvest
Sources of artificial fertilisers will
be scarce by 2050 >

12. Hotting up: +4o by 2100
Source: IPCC
4-5 degrees
global warming
by 2100: IPCC
10% of food lost
for each 1o of
warming
= We will need
150% more food
by ‘peak people’

13. Re-arm ag science
 R&D
stagnation

14. Farm
clearances
• Modern food system could displace 1.5
billion farmers and smallholders by 2050
• Affects all countries
• Affects 1 in 5 humans
• Driven by globalisation of food chains
• Area = Western Europe taken by ‘land
grabbers’ since 2001

15. Our ‘killer diet’
 2 people in 3 now die of a
diet-related disease (The
Lancet)
 75% of healthcare costs
linked to chronic disease
 1.4bn overweight/obese
 Diabetes: world’s 7th largest
killer by 2030 (WHO)
 Food deaths are
preventable….

16. What are the solutions?
Reinvent farming & food systems:
sustainable, low-input eco-farming
Reinvest massively in food research
Reinvent the global diet: so it is
healthier, damages less planet
Redesign cities: to recycle water,
nutrients, energy back into food.

17. Urban farming:
climate-proof?

18. Green cities

19. Bioculture
boom

20. 25,000 edible plants

21. Fish farm boom
World demand for 550mt of meat and fish
by 2100 will require 2-3 bn tonnes
extra of plant-based feed.

22. Algae boom
By 2050 algae could be the
world’s biggest cropping industry
supplying transport fuels,
health food, stockfeed, plastics,
textiles, chemicals, paper etc

23. ‘Oil provinces’ of the 21st century
Regions of high solar
density where ‘green oil’
can be grown efficiently.

24. Future farming
 Double global investment in ag and food R&D to
$200bn by reducing military spending 10%
 This will reduce conflict AND boost food security
 Ecofarming: combine best of high-tech farming
with permaculture and automation
 Radically reduce all resource inputs.
 Major focus on soil biology, crop science, nutrient
cycling, soil, water, energy & carbon conservation
 Systems that operate at large and small farm
scales, across landscapes
Robot tractor

25. Revegetate, recarbonise, rehydrate

26. A new respect for food
 A Food Year in every junior school on Earth
 Teach respect for food: how to eat for health
and to sustain our food supply
OR
? OR?

27. Link 1.8bn farmers
at lightspeed…
Visit virtual farms. Plan together
Connect to markets
and other farmers
Access to latest science
Farm
direct >
sales
Farmers learning from
farmers

28. Great challenges …
wonderful opportunities
Develop eco-farming by global sharing
of knowledge between farmers
Reshape world diet for health and
sustainability
Design cities that do not waste
Reward farmers for producing good
food and caring for water, land,
wildlife and atmosphere.

29. Debate global food security on:
www.sciencealert.com.au/global-
Thank you
“The Coming Famine”
is published by the
University of California
Press and CSIRO Publishing.
It was supported by the
Crawford Fund and Land &
Water Australia.