This document summarizes key points from a presentation on MOOCs and e-learning. It finds that while MOOC completion rates are only around 6-9%, completion rates for traditional university modules and programs are higher at 55% and 85% respectively. Motivation is an important factor in student retention and dropout. The future of MOOCs will depend on how they are funded, whether through governments, grants, industry, institutions themselves, or student fees. For MOOCs to be profitable, retention activities would need to increase student continuation by over 0.8% to cover costs. Overall the document questions the categorization of MOOCs as a form of e-learning and examines factors influencing student participation and motivation.

1. RIDE 2013
A puzzled person looks at MOOCS
Ormond Simpson
Visiting Fellow, Centre for Distance Education University of London
Previously Visiting Professor, Open Polytechnic of New Zealand
Previously Senior Lecturer in Institutional Research, Open University1

2. „E-learning‟ ?
- a „category error‟?
Gilbert Ryle 1900-76
2

3. „E-learning‟ ?
or
„E-teaching‟ ?
3

4. “No teacher can ever be
certain that their teaching
will cause a learner to learn”
- Ramsden (2003)
Professor Paul
Ramsden
4

5. OU % graduation rates by year of entry
60
53
50
40
30
22
20
10
0
1971 1981
1997 on
Beginning of
introduction of
e-teaching
5

6. Household internet access (ONS)
6

7. Completion rates for modules and MOOCS
Average first year full-time
undergraduate completion rate
Average OU module completion rate
(new students)
Average MOOC completion rate
85%
55%
6 - 9%
7

8. Importance of learning motivation
“The best predictor of
student retention is
motivation.
Professor
Edward Anderson
1942-2005
“…Most students drop out
because of reduced
motivation”
(Anderson, San Diego, 2003)
8

9. The future of MOOCS?
- will be decided by money
9

10. How will MOOCS be paid for?
• Governments – why would they?
• Grants from other bodies – pumppriming?
•
• Industry / commerce – for training?
• Institutional own funding?
10

11. Institutions own funding
• „loss leaders‟ to encourage recruitment?
• „Tasters‟ for intending students to
inform their course choice?
11

12. From student fees
12

13. Student self-funding
But if students pay fees for a MOOC then:
• they will want a qualification with a
suitable resale value
• A fair chance of getting that qualification
13

14. Funding MOOCS
£
Fund student support
Students willing
to pay more
Increases
student
retention
14

15. Cost benefits of retention
If F = students fee per year, S = institutional expenditure per student, V = total
institutional overhead then if the number of students in year 1 is N1 and in year 2 is N2
Income Year 1 = N1F – (N1S + V)
Income Year 2 = N2F – (N2S + V)
Reduction in income due to student dropout between years
= N1F – (N1S + V) – [N2F – (N2S + V)] = (N1 – N2)(F – S)
Then if there is a retention activity costing £P per student it will cost N1P. If that
increases retention by n students so that N2 becomes N1 + n then the reduction in income
is now:
[N1 – (N2 + n)](F - S)
So the reduction is itself reduced making a saving of
(N1 – N2)(F – S) – {[N1 – (N2 + n)](F - S)} = n(F – S)
For the retention activity to be self-supporting n(F – S) > N1P
Or np > 100P/(F – S) where np is the per cent increase in retention
For example P = £10 F = £2500, S = £1000 then np > 100x10/(2500-1000) = 0.67%
So if a retention activity costing £10 per student produces an increase in retention of
more than 0.67% it will be self-supporting
15

16. For a MOOC to make a profit it needs to ensure that:
1.25np > P or np > 0.8P
where P is the cost of a retention activity that
increases retention by np % points
Thus for example if the institution expends £10 on an
individual student it needs to get an increase in
retention of 8% to break even.
16

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