2. KCM Divided into
Three Sections

4. Existing Home Sales
S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

5. Pending Home Sales
100 = Historically Healthy Level
NAR 10/2013

6. “The emerging slowdown in
home purchases appears to
be largely seasonal.”
Thomas Popik
Research Director for the
HousingPulse survey

7. Months Supply & Impact on Price
Months
Market
Pricing
1–5
Sellers
Appreciation
5–6
Even
The Norm
6+
Buyers
Depreciation

8. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 10/2013

9. Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 10/2013

10. Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

11. Month-Over-Month
Price Changes
Realtor.com’s
0.0%
Median List Price
Zillow’s
Sales Price
-0.2%

12. “Asking home prices give us the first look at where
home sale prices are headed, and they point to a
Affordability is still rising rapidly in the first half of 2013,
slowdown. Aftergood compared to any time over the last 50 years.
asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros are
cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling – not just
rising more slowly – in 11 of the 100 largest metros,
the most markets to see prices slip in six months.”
Jed Kolko
Trulia’s Chief Economist

13. “The rapid price gains of the last year cannot
be sustained and we expect the last 50 to
Affordability is still good compared to any time over thepaceyears.
decline substantially…A slower pace is a
positive for housing demand and will help to
keep affordability from further eroding.”
Moody’s Analytics

14. “If home values continued to rise as they have,
relatively unchecked, we would almost certainly
be headed into another bubble cycle, and
nobody wants that…This moderation 50 years.
Affordability is still good compared to any time over the last should
help consumers feel more at ease in their
decisions to buy and sell, and will help keep the
market balanced.”
Stan Humphries
Chief Economist for Zillow

15. "I define a bubble as a time when people have
extravagant expectations, and the expectations
are driving home price increases. We don't
Affordability is mindset of earlier this century…
have the still good compared to any time over the last 50 years.
Affordability is still good compared to
any time over the last 50 years."
Robert Shiller
Nobel Prize Winning Economist

16. Recent Rate Movement
2013
30 Year Fixed
Rate
Freddie Mac 10/2013

17. ta·per
ˈtāpər/
Verb – to diminish
or reduce

18. Rate Movement
30 Year Fixed
Rate
Fed announces not to
taper bond purchases
t
tes emen
a
e r unc
ag
rtg anno
o
n m Fed
i
se p to
ea
ncr ding u
I
l
bui
Decrease in mortgage
rates since Fed
announcement
Freddie Mac 10/2013

19. “The MBA believes rates will keep
pushing upward, going…
well above 5%.”
HousingWire 10/2013

20. Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst
Projected Rate
4Q 2014
Fannie Mae
5.0%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Bankers Assoc

22. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
January 2000 – November 2013
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

23. Home Price
Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel
of over one hundred
economists, real
estate experts and
investment & market
strategists.

24. Average Annual Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

25. Home Price Expectation Survey
Projected Percentage Increase
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

26. Cumulative Appreciation by 2018
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

27. 30 Year Fixed Rate
Mortgage History
January 2012 – November 2013
Federal Reserve 11/2013

28. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 10/2013

29. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 10/2013

30. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
NAR 10/2013

32. Typical Sold Price*
FSBO vs. Agent
$215K
$175K
By FSBO
*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the
survey. However, studies have shown that people are
more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.
By AGENT

33. 89
%
Where Do Buyers
Find a Home?
90
%
of all buyers search online
during home buying process
of all buyers purchased a
home through an agent
%
28
of all buyers look to
print newspaper ads

34. FSBOs as a Percentage
of all Home Sales
The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO has
decreased from 19% to 9% in the last 20 years

35. FSBOs Must Be Ready to Negotiate
Here is a list of some of the people with
whom you must be prepared to negotiate:
• The buyer
• The buyer’s agent
• The buyer’s attorney
• The home inspection company
• The termite company
• The buyer’s lender
• The appraiser
• The title company
• The town or municipality
• The buyer’s buyer
• Your bank (in the case of a short sale)

36. 7.9%
5.1%
3.6%
Pre-BUBBLE
Average Annual
APPRECIATION
BUBBLE
RECOVERY
TO DATE
4.2%
PROJECTED
NOW to 2018
BUST
-5.9%
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

37. PROJECTED
Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

38. Cumulative House Appreciation by 2018
40.1%
28%
23.7%
16.8%
Pre-Bubble
Trend
Bulls
All
Projections
Bears
Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

39. Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst
Projected Rate
4Q 2014
Fannie Mae
5.0%
5.4%
5.1%
5.0%
National Assoc of Realtors
Freddie Mac
Mortgage Bankers Assoc

40. Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
4
Existing Home Sales
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
5
Pending Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org/
6
Thomas Popik Quote
8, 9
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale,
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
http://www.realtor.org/
10
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
11
Month-Over-Month Price Changes
http://www.realtor.com/data-portal/Real-Estate-Statistics.aspx
http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=390
12
Jed Kolko Quote
http://info.trulia.com/trulia-price-and-rent-monitors-sept-2013
13, 14
Moody’s Analytics Quote, Stan
Humphries Quote
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/moodys-predicts-strong-market-despite-slowdown-2013-09-27
15
Robert Shiller Quote
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101152271
16, 18
Recent Rate Movement, Rate Movement
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
19
Mortgage Bankers Association Quote
http://www.housingwire.com/articles/27697-mba-economists-predict-mortgage-market-taper
Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013
20, 39
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/housing-market-performs-well-despite-rising-interest-rates-2013-10-24
http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

41. Resources
Slide
Slide Title
Link
22
Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
23, 24,
25, 26
Home Price Expectation Survey, Average
Annual Appreciation, Cumulative
Appreciation by 2017
https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
27
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage History
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
28
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
29, 30
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale,
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
http://www.realtor.org/
32
Typical Sold Price
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/01/how-seller-sold-home-1991-2012/
33
Where Do Buyers Find a Home?
http://www.realtor.org/
34
FSBOs as a Percentage of Home Sales
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/01/how-seller-sold-home-1991-2012/
36-38
Average Annual Appreciation, Projected
Percentage Appreciation, Cumulative
House Appreciation by 2017
https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/19529_cshomeprice-releas
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM