2. KCM Divided into
Three Sections

4. Are They Going
Up or Down?
Home
Sales

5. 100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 3/2014

6. Existing Home Sales
NAR 3/2014

7. -19.1%
-6%
3.9%
15.2%
19.4%
37.5%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
$0-100K
$100-
250K
$250-
500K
$500-
750K
$750K-1M $1M+
% Sales +/- -19.1% -6% 3.9% 15.2% 19.4% 37.5%
Percentage Change
in Sales from a Year
Ago by Price Range
NAR 3/2014

8. -44%
-16%
18%
23%
-45%
-35%
-25%
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
Short Sales REOs
Existing Home
Sales
New
Construction
%Sales +/- -44% -16% 18% 23%
Percentage
Change in
Sales from a Year
Ago by Category
Home Sales
CoreLogic 3/2014

9. “While many fret that existing housing sales have
recently been slumping, the angst is misplaced. Since
early last year sales have declined 7%, but distressed
sales as a percentage of all sales have fallen from 25%
of sales to just 15%…
Thus, the total volume of non-distressed
sales is higher than it was a year ago.
Relax.”
Elliot F. Eisenberg
Ph.D. GraphsandLaughs, LLC

10. -24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%
-13%
-7.6%
-5%
-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
5.3%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb
Marc
h
April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3%
NAR 3/2014
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels

11. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
NAR 3/2014
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

12. HOME
PRICES

13. 100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
United States Home Prices
as per Case Shiller Composite 20 City Index
Case Shiller

14. 100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
United States Home Prices
as per Case Shiller Composite 20 City Index
Case Shiller

15. - CoreLogic 3/2014
“Home prices nationwide remain
16.9% below their peak, which
was set in April 2006.”

16. MILLENNIALS

17. 1.) In 19 of the 20 large metro areas surveyed, more than 5%
of all residents indicated they wanted to buy a home in the
next year.
2.) Among current renters, homeownership aspirations were
particularly strong, with about 10% of all renters nationwide
saying they would like to buy within the next 12 months.
3.) The vast majority of these respondents also said they were
confident or somewhat confident they could afford
homeownership now.
4.) If all renters that indicated they wanted to buy actually did
purchase a home in the next year, it would represent more
than 4.2 million first-time home sales, more than double
the roughly 2.1 million first-time home buyers in 2013.
Are 4.2M First Time Buyers about to Buy?
Zillow 3/2014

18. 31%
30%
30%
9%
Millennials
Gen X
Boomers
Silent Generation
NAR 2014
Percentage of Buyers
by Generation

20. "No other cohort of adults is nearly as
confident about their economic future
as the Millennials are right now.
This is definitely a change…
With an increased sense of optimism, this
generation is starting to feel as though they
have the resources available to lead the lives
they want or expect to in the future."
Jim Zeumer
Pulte Group VP Corporate Communications

21. MILLENNIALS are
ready to buy homes…
of Millennials plan to purchase
a home in the future
85% increased their interest in purchasing
a home in the past year as the
positive attributes of homeownership
resonate with this generation
58%
plan to purchase a home
in the next two years
49%
Of those planning to buy in the near-term:
56%are current homeowners
41%are renters
Pulte Group 2014

22. Happiness - 62%
Independence - 61%
Achievement - 59%
Millennials: Associate Owning A Home with…
Pulte Group 2014

23. Baby Boomers
are ready to move!

24. BH&G 2014
Baby Boomers ready to move…
of Boomers plan to move from
the home they currently own
57%
Plan to stay in the state they
are currently living in
72%
said they’d likely buy a second
home, such as a vacation or beach
house, to use during retirement
25%
don’t expect to live with other
generations of their family
83%

25. “The oldest Baby Boomer turns 68 this year, and
the youngest turns 50. They are buying homes
in droves as their employment situation, home
values, and stock portfolios have almost fully
recovered from the Great Recession.
We are seeing strong sales
in this same demographic
throughout the country.”
John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Boomers are starting to move…

26. Vacation Home Sales
553K
717K
2012 2013
UP 29.7%
NAR 2014

27. We Must…

28. "Certainly, at these levels,
mortgage rates should not be a
significant deterrent to buying, let
alone considered „high‟ by any
stretch of the imagination, but for
some, perhaps they seem so."
HSH.com

29. FEAR

30. "One thing seems certain:
we are not likely to see
average 30-year fixed mortgage
rates return to the historic lows
experienced in 2012."
Freddie Mac

31. Decade Average Rate Payment
1970s 8.86% $1,589
1980s 12.7% $2,166
1990s 8.12% $1,484
2000s 6.29% $1,237
2014 YTD 4.36% $997
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the approximate payment for a $200,000 mortgage.
Payments are principal & interest only, based on a $200,000 fully amortizing mortgage.
All terms are assumed to be 30 years.
Freddie Mac 3/2014
Historic Mortgage Rates by Decade

32. 3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75
2013 - 2014
30 Year Fixed
Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 3/2014

33. 1/2013 4/2014
4.4
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.5
5.7
Freddie Mac
Projected Rates
April 2014 – 2015 4Q

34. Mortgage Rate
Projections
Analyst Projected Rate
2015 4Q
Fannie Mae 5%
Freddie Mac 5.7%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.3%
3/2014

36. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $250,000 4.41% $1,253.38
End of 2015 $270,000 5.7% $1,567.08
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
Difference in Monthly Payment $313.70

38. 0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
S&P Case Shiller 3/2014
Year-over-Year Change in Prices

39. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 3/2014

40. RETURN ON INVESTMENT
51.1
35.2
8.3
65.7
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – April 2014
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

41. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
NAR 3/2014
5-6 Months =
Normal Market
Inventory

42. Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 3/2014

43. NAR 3/2014
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
16%
23%

44. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
5,6,10,11,4
1,42,43
Pending Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, Year-
over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory, Months
Inventory Chart, Months Inventory Graph,
% Distressed Property Sales
http://www.realtor.org/
7 % Change In Sales by Price Range http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2014/02/23/a-closer-look-at-the-latest-ehs-release/
8 % Change in Sales by Category
http://www.corelogic.com/blog/authors/molly-boesel/2014/03/home-sales-increased-by-8-
percent-year-over-year-in-february.aspx#.UzG70WePK74
9 Elliot F. Eisenberg Quote http://econ70.com/2014/03/26/housing-holds/
13, 14 United State Home Prices http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
15, 50 CoreLogic Quote http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf
17 First Time Buyers http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=422
18 Percentage of Buyers by Generation http://www.realtor.org/reports/home-buyer-and-seller-generational-trends
19 Population 20-34 Years
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/03/the-favorable-demographics-
for.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRi
sk+%28Calculated+Risk%29
20, 21, 22,
51
Jim Zeumer Quote, Millennials are Ready,
Millennials Associate Owning A Home with…
http://www.pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/Better-Days-
Ahead-Millennials-Think-So/default.aspx
24 Baby Boomers Ready http://www.bhgrealestate.com/Views/MediaCenter/News.aspx?id=3122
25 Boomers are starting to move…
http://realestateconsulting.com/blog/lesley-deutch/affluent-second-home-buyers-are-back-
droves
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

45. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
26, 53 Vacation Home Sales Up
http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/04/vacation-home-sales-surge-in-2013-investment-
property-declines
28 HSH.com Quote http://www.hsh.com/trends.html#archives
30, 31,
54
Freddie Mac Quote, Historic Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140324_dirt_cheap_to_cheap.html
32,33 30 Year Fixed Rate, Projected Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
34, 35 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf
http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf
36, 52 Cost of Waiting http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
38, 39 Year-over-Year Change in Prices, Case Shiller HPI
https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-
assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-
0325.pdf?force_download=true
40 Return on Investment
http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
http://money.msn.com/
47-49 Daniel Pink, Seth Godin, & Guy Kawasaki Quotes LeadingRE Conference 2014
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

47. “I needed a real estate agent
in 1997 because I didn‟t have
a password to the MLS .”
Daniel Pink
Bestselling Author of Drive

48. “The minute real estate listings went
online was the minute that it was no
longer sufficient that a real estate
broker merely had information
about real estate listings.”
Seth Godin
Author, Entrepreneur,
Marketer and Public Speaker

49. “To provide value, real estate
agents must not only provide
information but also insights
into that information.”
Guy Kawasaki
Silicon Valley Author, Speaker,
Investor and Business Advisor

50. - CoreLogic 3/2014
“Home prices nationwide remain
16.9% below their peak, which
was set in April 2006.”

51. Happiness - 62%
Independence - 61%
Achievement - 59%
Millennials: Associate Owning A Home with…
Pulte Group 2014

52. Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $250,000 4.41% $1,253.38
End of 2015 $270,000 5.7% $1,567.08
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
Difference in Monthly Payment $313.70

53. Vacation Home Sales
553K
717K
2012 2013
UP 29.7%
NAR 2014

54. "One thing seems certain:
we are not likely to see
average 30-year fixed mortgage
rates return to the historic lows
experienced in 2012."
Freddie Mac

55. So you Want
to be an Agent