4. Pending Home Sales
110
105
100 = Historically Healthy Level
100
December 2011 – December 2012
95
90
85
December 2011 – December 2012
80
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2013
5. Single Family Sales (year-over-year)
NORTHEAST
+2.8%
WEST MIDWEST
+1.2% +9.7%
SOUTH
+7.5%
U.S. AVERAGE
+5.8%
NAR 2/2013
6. Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year)
NORTHEAST
+12.5%
WEST MIDWEST
No Change +25%
SOUTH
+25%
U.S. AVERAGE
+15.4%
NAR 2/2013
7. $1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year)
NORTHEAST
+71.3%
WEST MIDWEST
+66.7% +48.0%
SOUTH
+47.4%
U.S. AVERAGE
+62.3%
NAR 2/2013
8. Hottest Months for Online Housing by State
Peak Month for Search Traffic, Relative to State’s Annual Average
Trulia 1/2013
11. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are
expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers
Association predicted.”
5
4.5
4.4
4
3.5
3
2.5 Projected
2
30 Year
Mortgage
1.5
Rate
1
0.5
0
2013 4Q
MarketWatch 10/24/2012
12. Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed
3.55
12/01/2012 – 2/1/2013
3.5
3.45
3.4
3.35
3.3
Freddie Mac 2/1/2013
13. Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM
1.) A Product-Type qualified residential mortgage is a first-lien mortgage
that is for an owner-occupant with fully documented income, fully amortizing
with a maturity that does not exceed 30 years and, in the case of adjustable rate-
mortgages (ARMs), has an interest rate reset limit of 2 percent annually
and a limit of 6 percent over the life of the loan.
2.) A PTI/DTI qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s ratio of
monthly housing debt to monthly gross income that does not exceed 28
percent and a borrower’s total monthly debt to monthly gross income that
does not exceed 36 percent.
3.) An LTV ratio qualified residential mortgage must meet a minimum LTV ratio
that varies according to the purpose for which the mortgage was
originated. For home purchase mortgages the LTV ratio is 80 percent.
4.) A FICO qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s FICO score
greater than or equal to 690 at the origination of the loan.
Mortgage Market Note #11-02 3/31/2011
14. QRM & the 20% Down Payment
“The six regulators drafting the
separate QRM rule, including the
Department of Housing and
Urban Development, the Office of
the Comptroller of the Currency
and the Securities and Exchange
Commission, must decide
whether to include such a
requirement — and whether to
make it less than the 20 percent
they originally proposed.”
Bloomberg 01/18/2013
15. Months Supply & Impact on Price
Months Market Pricing
1- 4 Sellers Appreciation
5-6 Even The Norm
7+ Buyers Depreciation
16. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
5.0
4.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2013
18. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
6.0% 5.5%
Year-over-Year Change in Prices
4.3%
4.0% 3.6%
2.0%
2.0%
1.1%
0.6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
0.0%
-0.5%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
-2.0% -1.7%
-2.5%
-4.0% -3.5%
-3.9%
-6.0%
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
19. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year Metropolitan Area Year-over-Year
Atlanta 7.6% Miami 9.9%
Boston 2.3% Minneapolis 11.1%
Charlotte 5.1% New York -1.2
Chicago 0.8% Phoenix 22.8%
Cleveland 1.8% Portland 6.7%
Dallas 5.7% San Diego 8.0%
Denver 7.8% San Francisco 12.7%
Detroit 11.9% Seattle 7.4%
Las Vegas 10.0% Tampa 6.8%
Los Angeles 7.7% Washington 4.4%
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
20. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Metropolitan Area M-o-M Metropolitan Area M-o-M
Atlanta 0.1 Miami 0.8
Boston -0.9 Minneapolis 1.0
Charlotte -0.3 New York -1.1
Chicago -1.3 Phoenix 1.4
Cleveland -0.8 Portland -0.2
Dallas -0.1 San Diego 0.9
Denver 0.4 San Francisco 1.4
Detroit -0.3 Seattle 0.5
Las Vegas 0.4 Tampa -0.2
Los Angeles 0.4 Washington -0.6
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
21. Home Prices in the Short Term
150.00
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13 PROJEC
TED
145.00
140.00
135.00
130.00
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
22. Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
35%
30%
25%
24%
20%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2013
24. Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point
3% 3% 1% 1%
6% < $50K
7% $50-100K
15% 27% $100-200K
$200-300K
$300-400K
$400-500K
37% $500-750K
$750K-$1M
>$1M
Realty Trac
25. Two graphs that show the distressed
property challenge is moving to different
parts of the country.
Moody’s Analytics 1/2013
26. Capital Economics
“The Northeast is much more likely to see no price
growth at all than anything close to the 5 percent
national average this year, the analytics firm stated
in a recent outlook.
Northeastern states have
relatively long foreclosure
timelines, and their rate of
foreclosure as of the third
quarter of last year was
5.6%.This compares to
just 2.7% in the West.”
DSNews 01/31/2013
27. Average Days to Foreclosure – 4Q 2012
1200
1000 1,089
800
853
600
400
347
200
113
0
Texas California Florida New York
Realty Trac
28. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
5,6,7,8, Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales,
http://www.realtor.org
9 Condo & Co-Op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales
12,14 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
13 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24
15 Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/20686/QRM_FINAL_ALL.pdf
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/housing-industry-awaits-down-payment-rule-for-mortga
16 QRM & the 20% Down Payment
18 Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
19, 21, S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Home http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=1245346789036
22, 23 Prices in the Short Term
24 Percentage of Distressed Property Sales http://www.realtor.org
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings, http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosure-market-repo
25, 26
Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point
27 Two Graphs PAID SERVICE http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=236942
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/home-price-expectations-vastly-different-for-northeast-vs-
28 Capital Economics
west-2013-01-31
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
29. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosure-market-
29 Average Days to Foreclosure – 4Q 2012
report-7547
30 Building Trust is Most Important http://media.ford.com/images/10031/fordtrendbook2013.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
30. Building Trust is Most Important
“Weary of misinformation, people are reappraising their
relationships with companies and brands, making
integrity a new form of competitive advantage…
More important than ever to
building brand equity and
differentiation, trust has
become a precious commodity,
and its limited supply in the
marketplace has stimulated
consumer demand.”
