2. Pending Home Sales
105
100
95
90
85
80
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
NAR 12/2012

3. Pending Home Sales
105
100 = Historically Healthy Level
100
95
November 2011 – November 2012
90
85
November 2010 – November 2011
80
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
NAR 12/2012

4. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0 5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
5.0
4.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
NAR 12/2012

5. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
5.25
5
4.75
4.5
4.25
4
3.75
3.5
3.25
1/01/2011 Today
Federal Reserve

6. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 12/2012

7. Return on Investment
50 46.1
January 2000 – January 2013
30
18.3
10
0.5
-10
-30 -24.9
-50
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

8. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
5.0%
Year-over-Year Change in Prices 4.3%
4.0% 3.6%
3.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.1%
1.0% 0.6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May
0.0%
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
-1.0% -0.5%
-2.0% -1.7%
-3.0% -2.5%
-4.0% -3.5%
-3.9%
-5.0%
S&P Case Shiller 12/2012

9. Projected % Change in Home Prices
Source 2013
JP Morgan 9.7%
Barclays 5.5%
Capital Economics 5%
Freddie Mac 2-3%

10. Home Price
Expectation Survey

11. Average Annual Appreciation
12.0%
10.0%
10.4%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
3.6% 3.3%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-5.7%
-6.0%
Pre-Bubble (1987-1999) Bubble (Q1 2000 - Q2 2006) Bust (Q3 2006 - Q2 2012) Expectations (2013 - 2017)
Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012

12. Home Price Expectation Survey
4.5
Projected Percentage Increase
4
3.5 3.6 3.2 3.3 3.3
3.1
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012

13. Bulls vs. Bears
35 33.6
Overall Bulls Bears
30
27.7
25 23.1
21.8
20 19
16.5
15.2
15
11.5 11.5 11.2
10 8.8
7.9
6.3 6.7
5.5
4.6
5 3.8
3
0
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012

14. Cumulative Appreciation by Survey
20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 19
18
16 15 15.1
14
12 11.3 11.3 11.5
10
7.7 7.9 7.9
8
6
4.3
4.7 4.6
4
2.3
2 1.6
-0.2
0
December 2011 September 2012 December 2012
-2
Home Price Expectation Survey 12/2012

15. Projected % Change in Home Prices
Source 2013
Home Price Expectation Survey 3.1
National Assoc Business Economists 2.8
WSJ Economic Survey 3.25

16. Urgency Being Felt by Buyers
Percentage of Buyers Who Believe Prices
Will Rise In the Next 12 Months
80%
71%
70%
61%
60% 57%
50%
40% 34%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1 2012 Survey Q2 2012 Survey Q3 2012 Survey Q4 2012 Survey
Redfin12/17/2012

17. Gen X & Gen Y and
Homeownership

18. 43% are already homeowners
Trulia12/2012

19. 72%
say homeownership
is part of their
personal
American Dream
Trulia 12/2012

20. 93%
that currently rent plan
to purchase a home
Trulia 12/2012

21. Joint Center for Housing Studies
Harvard University 2012
79% of those under
25 years old
% that Believe Owning
86%
is Financially Better
of those
than Renting
25-34

22. Gen X and Y
Price Rate P&I
Today 360,000 3.4 1,596.53
End of 1,858.62
Year 371,160 4.4
Monthly Savings $262.09

23. Thinking about moving up to
the home of your dreams?

24. Move-Up Buyers Coming to Market
60%
50% 49%
Reasons Non-First Time
40%
Buyers Will Buy
30%
20% 17.5%
11.5%
8.6% 9.6%
10%
3.7%
0%
Significally Same Size, Same Size, But Same Size, More Same Size, Significally
Bigger Cross Town Nicer Affordable Cross Country Smaller
75.1% Some Form of Move-Up Buyer Redfin12/17/2012

25. Cost vs.
Price

26. The Move-Up Seller
Comparison Today Current Home Move-up Home
2006 Price $300,000 $450,000
Current Price (-20%) $240,000 $360,000
Loss/Savings $60,000 $90,000
Net Gain for
Move-Up Seller $30,000

27. Home Prices Next Year
In the recent Home Price Expectation Survey,
105 leading housing analysts called for a 3.1%
increase in home values by the end of 2013.

28. The Move-Up Seller
Comparison – 1 Year Later Current Home Move-up Home
Current Price $240,000 $360,000
Future Price (+3.1%) $247,440 $371,160
Future Gain $7,440 $11,160
Future Difference $3,720
Current Gain $30,000
Total Gain $33,720

29. Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
“After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are
expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers
Association predicted.”
5
4.5
4.4
4
3.5
3
2.5 Projected
2
30 Year
Mortgage
1.5
Rate
1
0.5
0
2013 4Q
MarketWatch 10/24/2012

30. The Move-Up Seller
Price Rate P&I
Today 360,000 3.4 1,596.53
End of 1,858.62
Year 371,160 4.4
Monthly Savings $262.09

31. Future
Home
Prices

32. Home Prices in the Short Term
150.00
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
145.00 PRO
JEC
TED
140.00
135.00
130.00
May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
S&P Case Shiller 12/2012

33. Some States Still Have a Way to Go
“States with a non-judicial process witnessed a sharper
decline in home prices at the beginning of the downturn, but
are currently enjoying price appreciation. This is due to a
more disposition of delinquent supply, leaving lean
inventory in many markets…In contrast, states with a
judicial process, such as Florida, Illinois, and New York,
are still struggling to clear the pipeline of distressed loans.
As a result, home prices in the Chicago
and New York metro areas have
continued to edge lower.”
BofA Merrill Lynch's Michelle Meyer

34. Days to Foreclosure
RealtyTrac12/2012

35. Highest Foreclosure Inventory

36. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
Pending Home Sales, Month’s Inventory of
2,3,4 http://www.realtor.org
Home Sales
5 Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=124534560
6 S&P Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices
Average Annual Appreciation, Home Price
11,12,
Expectation Survey, Bulls vs. Bears,
13, 14, https://pulsenomics.com/Dec_2012_HPE_Survey.html
Cumulative Appreciation by Survey, Projected
15
% Change in Home Prices
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2012/10/26/home-prices-projected-to-increase-by-3-percen
15 Projected % Change in Home Prices
, http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-flash08.html?project=EFORECAST07
http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/more-homebuyers-confident-about-rising-home-prices
16 Urgency Being Felt by Buyers
18, 19, 43% are already Homeowners, 72% say
http://info.trulia.com/trulia-american-dream-survey-winter-2012
20 homeownership…, 93% that currently rent…,
% that Believe Owning is Financially Better
21 http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/w12-4_drew_herbert.pdf
than Renting
http://www.redfin.com/about/press/releases/more-homebuyers-confident-about-rising-home-prices
24 Move Up Buyers Coming to Market
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM

37. Resources
Slide Slide Title Link
27 Home Prices Next Year https://www.pulsenomics.com/Sep_2012_HPE_Survey.html
29 Mortgage Rates Moving Forward http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-case-shiller-home-price-indices/en/us/?
32 Home Prices in the Short Term
indexId=spusa-cashpidff--p-us----
33 Some States Still Have a Way to Go http://www.businessinsider.com/michelle-meyer-foreclosure-process-home-prices-2012-12
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-long-a-foreclosure-takes-in-your-state-2012-12-03?
34 Days to Foreclosure
siteid=nwhreal
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM