The Virtual Road to Power: A Case Study on the Growth Trajectory of Chinese Online Opinion Leaders

The Virtual Road to Power:
A Case Study on the Growth Trajectory of
Chinese Grassroots Online Opinion Leaders
Calanthia Lan Mei
Sean Ding
Yawei Liu, Ph.D.
The Carter Center

Introduction

 Who are the influencers of online speech in China, besides
journalists, celebrities, and established intellectuals?

 How do ordinary citizens most effectively voice their opinions
in online communities?

 This paper examines China’s “grassroots” opinion leaders –
those without existing social cache or media attention, but are
shaping online discussions on social and political issues.

The Growth Trajectory of Chinese Grassroots Online Opinion Leaders | The Carter Center

Purpose of Study


Definition of Opinion Leaders

“Agents who are active in interpersonal communication
network, supplying information, opinions, and suggestions
for people, exerting personal influences on others, and
shouldering an idea-guiding responsibility.”
—Paul Lazarsfeld, The People’s Choice


The Role of Opinion Leaders:
The Two-Step Communication Model


Online Opinion Leaders:
A Revised Definition

Revised Definition of Online Opinion Leaders
Individuals who are active in online communication communities,
feeding, guiding and mastering the crowd with entrenching opinions
on socio-political discourses, who function to promote the process of
the aggregation of cloistered cognitive consonance and consequently
the establishment of their own attentive audience groups and
increasingly fragmented online speech markets.


The Growth Trajectory of Online Opinion Leaders:
A Tentative Model


A Tentative Model

 Positioning: We assume that any given individual holds a pre-
existing political position when entering into an online discussion of
a certain topic for the first time.


A Tentative Model

 Silence, observation, while with ambition and broad vision: The
individual begins his/her participation in silence, merely observing and
spectating ongoing discussions or reading existing content. However,
different from the “silent majority,” potential opinion leaders hold a
sense of confidence and ambition, aiming at higher discourse power
even in the period of silence and observation.


A Tentative Model

 First attempts: After the initial period of familiarization, the
individual begins to make first attempts at publishing opinions,
often with a sense of reservation or uncertainty.
 Intimidation: Indeed, most individuals will find themselves in a
rather intimidating environment after the first round of
expression, encountering either government censorship or harsh
responses from peers, or both. The harsh online discussion
environment in China might intimidate a new or less frequent
internet user from posting messages.


A Tentative Model

 Strategic modification: Such realization would then lead to a conscious
modification of one’s strategies or tone, which may become either more
progressive or more moderate.
 ProliferationAcquaintances and Supporters: Throughout this
exercise, the individual will begin making acquaintances and attract
followers, depending on the specific web mechanisms available.
Such sense of support and community will encourage the individual
to increase the quantity of his/her writings. With the growth of
one’s number of acquaintances online, the fear of speaking out
would subsequently fade away.

A Tentative Model

 Network of audience: Assuming consistent quality and intellectual
depth, the proliferation of the individual’s opinions will attract a
network of audience, which eventually turns the individual into an
online figure who meets the aforementioned criteria for an opinion
leader.


Methodology:
Case Studies Based on the Chinaelections.org Website

 In order to test the model, we examined several popular writers
for the Chinaelections.org web site.
 Founded in 2002 by The Carter Center, Chinaelections.org is
one of China’s most popular websites related to political reform
discussions.
 Chinaelections.org was awarded “Website of the Year” by
Southern Weekend in 2009, and currently attracts close to 2
million visits each month.


Selection Criteria:
Internal Traits

 Opinion leaders are more interested, involved, and updated in
political discourses with insights and energetic thoughts;
 Opinion leaders manifest a distinguished communication behavior
and manners in online discussions. They are able to recognize and
record communication network chain and behavior traces in their
respective online communities;
 Opinion leaders are usually sufficiently aware that they are sources
of information and influence for others;


Selection Criteria:
External Traits

 Opinion leaders are considered experts in their online
communities, based on an informal recognition by participants of
socio-political discussions, web moderators and acquaintances;
 Quantitatively, opinion leaders retain a fair amount of followers
and constantly receive abundant hits for their articles;
 Opinion leaders are more exposed to mass media than non-leaders;
their commentaries are widely recycled and quoted by other online
communities and mass media;
 However, to ensure fairness, our selected opinion leaders should
have no affiliation or nepotism with website owners, editors and
moderators.


Cases:
Dao Ning （道宁） , Wang Xiao ( 王霄）， Lin Mingli （林明理），
XUPING

Based on the established criteria, we selected 4 grassroots
opinion leaders, who are frequent contributors to the
Chinaelections.org web site with personal columns.

Two authors use pseudonyms (Dao Ning and XUPING), and two
authors use real names (Lin Mingli and Wang Xiao). None has
previous affiliation with the Chinaelections.org web site and its
editors.


Dao Ning:
Overall Trend


Dao Ning:
Growth Trajectory

“Discussing Mao’s Changes in Yan’an” (First attempt)
“Chinese Peasant Mao Zedong” (First attempt)
“Daily Comments on News (series)” (Strategic modification)
“Watching CCTV News” (Strategic modification)


Wang Xiao:
Overall Trend


Wang Xiao:
Tactics Growth Trajectory

“Why Phoenix TV is restricted in the mainland” (First attempt)
“A tribute to the 40th anniversary of the Cultural Revolution”
(First attempt)
“Bo Xilai who’s difficult to talk about” (Strategic modification –
10/24/2009)
“Although difficult, we still need to talk about Bo Xilai”
(Strategic modification)
“Supporting Mr. Wen Jiabao, putting hope on Mr. Wen Jiabao”
“When to launch political reform? Who’s with Wen?”
“I call for a seize fire between the Left and the Right”


Lin Mingli:
Overall Trend


Lin Mingli:
Growth Trajectory

“Should we tolerate, block, or follow Ai Weiwei?” (First
attempt)
“How many social reforms became economic policies” (First
Attempt)
“How much truth can Premier Wen see?” (Strategic
modification)
“Red songs – songs that will make our children ashamed”
(Strategic modification)
“Answering questions regarding the return of ‘Red Songs’”


XUPING:
Overall Trend


XUPING:
Growth Trajectory

“You can’t lie to everyone forever” (First attempt)
“A Q&A regarding sensitive terms” (First attempt)
“Who felt sad about the collapse of the Soviet Union?” (Strategic
modification)
“Misguiding people by fabricating historical ‘facts’: on the
biography of Hu Yaobang” (Strategic modification)
“If singing Red Songs doesn’t work, let’s just sing lullabies”
“This is a big deal, how can we not be angry? In response to Mu
Ran’s article”


Conclusion

To some extent, grassroots online opinion leaders do follow the
hypothesized model in their growth.
The choice of topics and article titles is extremely important, and
can often expedite the process of growth.
Many other variables, such as SEO improvements,
social/political events, and improvements in web design and user
experience may also contribute to the growth of opinion leaders.
These variables are not considered by this study due to limitations
in time and resources, but should require further investigation.


Bibliography

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Leibold, James. "Blogging Alone: China, the Internet, and the Democratic Illusions?" The Journal of Asian
Studies Nov. 70.4 (2011): 1023-041.

Mei, Wu. "Measuring Political Debate on the Chinese Internet Forum." Javnost-The Public15.2 (2008): 93-110.

Shen, Fei, Ning Wang, Zhongshi Guo, and Liang Guo. "Online Network Size, Efficacy, and Opinion
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Sima, Yangzi. "Grassroots Environmental Activism and the Internet: Constructing a Green Public Sphere in
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Zhang, Xiaofei, and Dahai Dong. "Ways of Identifying the Opinion Leaders in Virtual
Communities." International Journal of Business and Management July (2008): Opinion Leaders | The Carter Center
The Growth Trajectory of Chinese Grassroots Online 21-27.

THANK YOU
Questions and comments are welcome:
Calanthia Mei: Lanmei.calanthia@gmail.com
Sean Ding: Sean.ding@emory.edu

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