1) The Mekong River Basin faces several challenges from population growth, increasing demand for food and resources, and economic development. 2) The population in the basin is projected to increase by 33 million by 2025, placing more pressure on states to provide employment, education, energy and water resources. 3) Food demand is expected to double by 2050 due to population growth, while agricultural investment and irrigation expansion have slowed, threatening food security. 4) Economic development programs aim to boost regional integration and trade, but large infrastructure projects and private sector investments may negatively impact vulnerable populations and the environment.

1. Drivers in the Mekong Basin!
Kate
Lazarus
Global
Drivers
Topic
Working
Group
Workshop
Chiang
Mai,
Thailand
12
September
2011

2. CONDITIONS in the MEKONG BASIN!

3. Nation States & River Basins!
NaDon
States
River
Basins
Yunnan
Thomas
2009

4. Mekong Region & Mekong Basin!
Mekong
Basin
Greater
GMS
&
Mekong
Sub-­‐ Mekong
Basin
region
Thomas,
2009

5. Mekong River Basin!
River River Basin
Mean discharge Glacial melt in Area Population Population Water availability
(m3/s) river flow (%) (km2) x 1,000 density (m3/person/year)
Indus 5,533 44.8 1,081,718 178,483 165 978
Ganges 18,691 9.1 1,016,124 407,466 401 1,447
Brahmaputra 19,824 12.3 651,335 118,543 182 5,274
Irrawaddy 13,565 Small 413,710 32,683 79 13,089
Salween 1,494 8.8 271,914 5,982 22 7,876
Mekong 11,048 6.6 805,604 57,198 71 6,091
Yangtze 34,000 18.5 1,722,193 368,549 214 2,909
Yellow 1,365 1.3 944,970 147,415 156 292
Tarim 146 40.2 1,152,448 8,067 7 571
Total 1,324,386
Xu,
et
al.
2007.
• Mekong River: 4,800 km, longest river in SEA!
• 8th largest in terms of amount of water!
• 12th longest in the world!
• Largest difference in wet and dry season flow!
• Rich riverine ecology & fisheries!
• Low level of water resources development – compared to most other large river basins!

6. Mean Monthly Discharge at Various Sites on the Mekong
Mainstream!
CONDITIONS in the MEKONG BASIN!

7. Terrain & natural ecosystems!
Desert
–
xenic
shrublands
Major
biomes
Montane
Temperate
-­‐
each
is
divided
into
eco-­‐regions
grasslands
-­‐
broadleaf
&
shrublands
mixed
forest
-­‐
distribuDon
reflects
climaDc
variaDon
Temperate
conifer
forest
Tropical
/
sub-­‐tropical
moist
broadleaf
forest
Tropical
/
subtropical
dry
mangroves
broadleaf
forest
Data:
WWF
–
World
Wildlife
Fund

8. Remaining
Forest
Cover
• Seen
as
criDcal
for
maintaining
biodiversity
&
watershed
funcDons
• Major
focus
of
climate
change
miDgaDon
schemes
so
far
Data:
FRA
2000
–
Forest
Resource
Assessment
(FAO)

9. Demographic
Distributions
& Transitions! Ethno-­‐
linguisAc
diversity
Data:
GMI
World
Language
Mapping
System
Urban
areas
in
PopulaDon
Growth
Rates
(%
per
year)
yellow
Data:
CIESIN:
GRUMP
ver
1.1
source: UN Population Division's quinquennial estimates and projections

10. Populations in low-lying areas!

11. Economic Change!
growth,
structure,
employment,
connecDvity,
trade,
investment
ADB

12. Poverty! Poverty
Density
Persons
/
km2
Poverty
Incidence
%
Poor
Persons
/
km2
NaAonal
poverty
data
Small
area
esAmates

13. Sub-catchments in the
MRB with the spatial
distribution of major
water uses!
Kirby
et
al
2011

14. Current
water
resources
development
• Water use is concentrated in the most downstream portion of the
basin: the Vietnam Delta with an irrigated area of some 2mil
hectares!
• Other actively irrigated areas in the Basin amount to less than 1mil
hectares!
• Significant diversions from the mainstream above the Vietnam Delta
are so far absent!
• Laos and Cambodia hardly divert 1& of their annual renewable
water resources!
• Existing storage of water resources amounts to 2% of the average
annual flow!

15. Capture Fisheries in
the Mekong!
Income generation and
food security!
US$ 3 billion p.a.!
Nutrition - 60 million
people LMB!
Fish – main source of
animal protein + micro
nutrients!
Per capita consumption
29-39 kg p.a.!

16. Area:
• Tonle
Sap
Lake,
Cambodia
Key
parts
of
the
Tonle
Sap
ecosystem:
• Flood
Pulse
• Large
floodplain
and
rich
biodiversity
• Floodplain
vegetaDon
• High
nutrient
input
from
Mekong
Kummu,
Lamberts
2008

17. Flood Pulse!
Body of evidence in
support of hypothesis that
the flood pulse is the
driving force of the
productivity of the Tonle
Sap Lake and floodplain
ecosystem has become
solidly established.!
Most of the water involved
in this flood pulse
originates from the
Mekong River!
Kummu
&
Lamberts
(2008)

18. Mekong fisheries are dependent on
migration over long and short distances!
More than 70% of
the !
total catch (>1.3
million tonnes) in the
Lower!
Mekong Basin is !
dependant on long!
distance migration!
Source:
MRC

19. Agriculture
Rice production is the
dominant land use in NE
Thailand, central and
southern Cambodia and the
Vietnam Delta!
Smaller areas of cropping
in Lao PDR and in central
highlands of Vietnam!
Some irrigation in many of
these areas but main area
of irrigation is in the Delta!
Agriculture along with
fisheries and forestry
employ 85% of the people
in the MRB, many at
subsistence levels.!

21. MAIN DRIVERS in the MEKONG BASIN!

22. Demography
• Population growth: set to rise by 33mil by 2025!
• Large cohort of young people: 30% under 15 years
of age!
• Migration from rural to urban: seeking work & future
pressures from climate change!
• Increased pressure on states to provide
employment, education, energy and water
resources.!
Grumbine,
Dore,
Xu
(forthcoming
2011)

23. Human
Development
• High
poverty
and
low
development
• Regional
poverty
fell
from
48.4%
in
1990
to
25.3%
in
2005
• Lack
of
access
to
clean
water
• Over
30%
do
not
use
closed
sanitaDon
systems
• Decisions
around
large-­‐infrastructure
are
being
made
in
the
name
of
‘development’
to
‘reduce
poverty’

24. Food
Security
• Food
demand
–
expected
to
double
by
2050
– Decreasing
investment
in
tradiDonal
agriculture
accompanied
by
substanDal
slowing
in
growth
of
land
under
irrigaDon
–
drought
of
2010
– Farmers
across
wider
MRB
moving
away
from
subsistence
farming
towards
plantaDon
agriculture
–
rice
producers
are
becoming
rice
consumers;
Income
is
rising
but
with
ecological
implicaDons
–
driven
by
smallholders
and
plantaDon
investors
–
monoculture
threatens
biodiversity,
reduces
total
carbon
biomass
and
depletes
groundwater;
Farmers
subject
to
fluctuaDons
in
global
commodity
prices
– Market
volaDlity
influences
poverty
in
the
Mekong
• Food
price
inflaDon
kept
20
mil
people
from
escaping
poverty

25. Economic
investment
and
trade
• GMS
promoted
program
of
economic
cooperaDon
(regionalisaDon)
– Economic
linkages,
connecDng
infrastructure,
large
water,
energy,
infrastructure
projects,
cross-­‐border
trade,
collaboraDve
responses
to
social
and
environmental
problems
– Up
to
2010,
$11bil
for
investments…..
– What
types
of
good?
Who
benefits?
Who
is
vulnerable?
– NaDonally,
socio-­‐economic
and
sector
policies
and
plans
that
support
major
water
related
projects
for
navigaDon,
flood
control,
hydropower,
irrigaDon

26. Drivers:
Private
Sector-­‐led
Development
• Role
of
the
private
sector
in
the
development
of
water
and
related
resources
has
been
increasing:
– Private
project
developers
bring
funding
and
experDse
– They
also
have
disincenDves
to
comply
with
Dme-­‐
consuming
and
costly
safeguard
policies
– They
also
have
disincenDves
to
develop
projects
through
processes
open
to
public
scruDny
and
may
be
less
sensiDve
to
arguments
– Not
only
water
projects
but
significant
investment
in
other
sectors
such
as
mining
and
agribusiness

27. Drivers:
Climate
Change
• Wildcard driver in LMB!
• Projected impacts by 2050 from low (e.g. water availability), to
moderate (increased temperatures), to potentially high
(decreasing food production, sea level rise in Delta)!
• Extreme events (droughts) together with impacts of land use
(rubber) are having cumulative effects on watershed stream-
flow!
• Warming, increasing human migration and land use change -
infectious diseases!
• Poor people disproportionately vulnerable!
• Region rice production – may decline sharply!
• Infrastructure (or economic development) pressures onto of
climate change…!

30. PoliDcal
drivers
of
water
allocaDon
– PN67
research
into
poliDcal
drivers-­‐
InsDtuDons,
Interests,
Discourses,
Policy
processes:
– RegionalisaDon
–
MRC,
ASEAN,
Irrewaddy-­‐Mekong…..but
also
bilateral
when
regional
is
not
sufficient….
– StandardisaDon
–
HSAP,
EP,
transboundary
codes
of
conduct
– IntegraDon
–
IWRM
(IWRM-­‐based
MRC,
IWRM
–
MONREsss)

31. RESPONSES in the MEKONG
BASIN

32. Contested
Waterscapes
• Increases in FDI in Laos/Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, China ʻgoing outʼ!
• Private sector pressure (both driver and response) – role of China in the
LMB!
– China gaining prominence as bilateral trading partner and investor in
Mekong waters!
– Leading trading partner in Vietnam!
– #1 investor in Laos and Cambodia!
• Difficult decisions - trade offs required between hydropower/irrigation
development & capture fisheries!
• Cooperation manifesting in different ways:!
• Weak regional RBO (Mekong River Commission)!
• GMS!
• Bilateral!
• Political commitment for the implementation of IWRM, strengthening of
resource managers at the national and sub-basin levels (financial exercise
or linkage to decision-making?)!
• Increased knowledge of and engagement by CSOs (emerging and
sustaining of local groups)!
• Drive for more and in particular electricity demand!
• Drive for all things climate change – in the name of adaptation - REDD+
(National planning)!

33. Economic
Responses
– Development of water storage by China in the
Upper Mekong Basin main flow changes in the
LMB may come from the UMB!
– Development of hydropower in the LMB hydro
projects that are being constructed & planned
may likely offset increases in future irrigation
demand in the LMB!
– Decisions made at the regional level, such as the
development of transboundary transport and
electricity transmission networks.!

36. Proposed
Mekong
Power
Grid
• Flagship
project
of
ADB’s
GMS
iniDaDve
• Regional
grid,
system
for
regional
power
trade
• 
private
sector
investment
• Power

Thailand
and
Vietnam

37. • Different
visions
• Different
prioriDes
• Different
interests
• Plenty
of
tensions
within
and
between

38. Pak
Mun
Dam:
Perpetually
Contested?

39. Research
• MRC
Scenario
exercises
• CSIRO-­‐AusAID
Alliance
–
Exploring
Mekong
Region
Futures
• Lebel
et
al
–
scenarios
-­‐
NSEC

40. LEARNING PROCESSES in the MEKONG
BASIN!

41. • PoliDcs
and
transboundary
cooperaDon
–
thought
to
go
one
way
–
then
changes
–
(Xayabouri
case)
• China
–
friend
or
foe
(Laos,
Cambodia,
Vietnam)
–
what
about
other
neighbours?
• Technological
innovaDons
–
e.g.
embankment
in
VTE;
in
the
name
of
climate
change?
• Increased
dialogue
on
revenue
management

42. Thank
you
for
your
apenDon!!
www.mekong.waterandfood.org
www.mpowernetwork.org