1. DRIVERS IN THE ANDES
by DE BIEVRE, Bert; SARAVIA, Miguel; ACOSTA, Luis,
LAGUNA YANACOCHA
UBICACI N (Composit 1999)
ANTES DE LAS OPERACIONES MINERAS (1992)
Proyecto
Proye cto Maqu i Ma qui
Yanacocha Norte
Relevant conditions
#
Proyecto
Yanacocha Sur
Proyecto Proyecto
Pr oyecto
Cerro Negro Carachugo
La Quinua
Very high mountains with a lot of people Ubicaci n antigua
Laguna Yanacocha
in them AHORA (2006)
Extremely variable biophysical
conditions
Mountain rivers with limited regulation N
Cajamarca
capacity Coordenadas Proyec ci n U TM
Datum : Psad 56
Water demand at high altitudes
Traditional knowledge and technologies
to manage natural resources
Important drivers
Drastic increase in urban population
Free trade agreements boost
agroindustry for export
Land degradation: loss of regulation
capacity in mountain catchments
(deforestation, minning, overgrazing)
Climate change: vertical altitudinal
moves certain, everything else very
uncertain
Challenges and Opportunities
The responses for water supply and agriculture
planning are recently being build from a watershead
approach.
The response to land degradation consider the
conservation of critycal ecosystems and territorial
planning. In lower areas of the basins: little response
For Climate Change adaptation, nothing new has to be
created: integrated water resources management, integrated
catchment management, typically reforestation with low
positive hydrological impact or even negative impact
From Payment for Environmental Services to Benefits
Sharing Mechanisms
Efforts to update legislation and institutional
framework
In absence of legal framework, municipalities stablish
partnerships to management catchment

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F5"#(,.&7(/"('"5",>&(*6&(/"6",>&2%*8*+.&,%&$%).&)./"%+)& Limpopo Basin Strategic Plan for Reducing Vulnerability to Floods and Droughts. UN-HABITAT/UNEP, July 2007 '().6&#";/(8%*&B-./.&#.*&#";/(,.&,%&+/'(*&(/.()&1%/&B%/=&#.(*)&
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The ecosystems of the Limpopo Basin support an estimated 5,200 human settlements. Table 1
shows that 49% and 45% of these settlements are respectively in Mozambique and in South Africa,
while the rest are in Botswana and Zimbabwe.
;/%B"*;&$%$+5(8%*):&,-.&6.#(*6&1%/&5"7.),%2=&$/%6+2,)&"*&,-.&
Table 1: Number and distribution of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin per country,
including Total Population
Distribution of Total Population
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Country No. of settlements
settlements (%) (in million)
Mozambique 2541 49 1.3
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South Africa 2355 45 10.7
,%&"*7.),&"*&5"7.),%2=&$/%6+28%*@&F%+*,/".)&"*&C0GF&)-%+56&1%2+)& Botswana
Zimbabwe
198
100
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%*&)+$$5>"*;&,-."/&%B*&6.#(*6&1%/&5"7.),%2=&$/%6+2,)&(*6&#(=.& Total 5194
Data source: http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/namefiles.htm; and UNDP (2003)
100 14.0
/+/(5&(/.()&#.(*)&,-(,&1%%6&$/%6+28%*&5".)&"*&,-.&-(*6)&%1&(*&(;"*;:&
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Topography and climate Figure 4 shows the geographical distribution patterns of human settlements in the Limpopo River
Basin. It can be observed that, firstly, all settlements are close to the river valleys, indicating the
!"#$%&'&()*'"+$&,$%"#$-./'&'&$0.1#)$2*3.4$.3$')#3#4%#5$.4$Figure 2.3. !&'&()*'"+$1*).#3$,)&/$*2&1#$influence of the aridity in the Basin which encourages people to settle close to the stream banks.
)-/"*="*;&*+#'./&%1&1(/#./)&
67888$/9*939:9$.4$%"#$/&;4%*.4$)#(.&43$&,$<&;%"$=,).>*$%&$%"#$1*3%$,:&&5$':*.43$.4$%"#$?&@*/2.>*4$'*)%$&,$Lastly, human settlements are much denser in Mozambique and South Africa compared with
Botswana and Zimbabwe.
%"#$>*%>"/#4%39$$!"#$:*3%$ABC$D/$&,$).1#)$3%)#%>"$"*3$#:#1*%.&43$2#:&E$B$/9*939:9$$ Limpopo Basin Strategic Plan for Reducing Vulnerability to Floods and Droughts. UN-HABITAT/UNEP, July 2007
South Africa Livestock Products: Imports
$600000000
$500000000
$400000000
$300000000
$200000000
$100000000
$0
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SADC World-SADC
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Figure 4: Geographical distribution of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin
:&.)3,
Data source: http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/namefiles.htm
A(&3$".,)3,&9"%&$",'#'1+&2#3,-"3.)/B,)3,/(",7)5'#'#,:&.)3,4%#5,CDEF,/#,GFFF,
$ ;&/&,.#1%*"<,(6'<=="&%/(>)34#?3$&?5)+=$3.=(/5+=3&5"@+".?(/5, Figure 6: Changes in average population density in the Limpopo Basin from 1960 to 2000
! ;&/&,.#1%*"<,(6'<==HHH?3&?13"'?3"/=-&/&."/.=-&/&+)./?'('I,JKLMNO,
5 Data source: http://www.na.unep.net/datasets/datalist.php3 (UNEP)
Figure 2.3 Topography of the Limpopo River basin
The Limpopo River Basin has a strong diversity of rural versus urban population. For example, for
!"#$ ).1#)$ 2*3.4$ .3$ /*.4:+$ >"*)*>%#).3#5$ 2+$ ,:*%$ &)$ ;45;:*%.4($ ':*.43$ E.%"$ ()*33F$ *45$ 2;3":*459$ !"#$ two countries (Botswana and South Africa) the capital cities and some of the largest urban
#G>#'%.&43$ %&$ %"#$ (#4#)*::+$ ,:*%$ :*453>*'#$ *)#$ %"#$ /&;4%*.4&;3$ )#(.&43$ .4$ <&;%"$ =,).>*7$ 3;>"$ *3$ %"#$ population centres reside within the basin boundaries (e.g. Gaborone, Francistown, Pretoria,
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H*%#)2#)(7$ <%)+5'&&)%$ ?&;4%*.43$ *45$ %"#$ I)*D#432#)($ )*4(#$ %"*%$ >&/').3#3$ %"#$ 5.1.5#$ %&$ %"#$ J4D&/*%.$ large urban centres – Johannesburg, Maputo, and Bulawayo, – which are located on the fringes of
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the Basin. Aside from these urban centres the Limpopo Basin is predominantly rural, i.e.
!"#$ >:./*%#$ .4$ %"#$ -./'&'&$ 0.1#)$ 2*3.4$ )*4(#3$ ,)&/$ %)&'.>*:$ 5)+$ 3*1*44*"$ *45$ "&%$ 5)+$ 3%#''#$ %&$ >&&:$ approximately 60% of the Basin population lives in rural areas (CGIAR, 2003).
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1.3. Rainfall and runoff characteristics
*44;/7$)*4(.4($,)&/$688$%&$A7688$//P*7$E".:#$%"#$*1#)*(#$#1*'&)*%.&4$.3$A7QB8$//P*7$)*4(.4($,)&/$R88$
%&$ 67S88$//P*9$ !"#$ *)#*3$ %"*%$ )#>#.1#$ %"#$ ".("#3%$ )*.4,*::$ *)#$ %"#$ /&;4%*.4&;3$ *)#*3$ .4$ <&;%"$ =,).>*7$ The endowment of the Limpopo basin with high levels of biodiversity, as well as a large number of
E".:#$ %"#$ :&E#3%$ )*.4,*::$ .3$ ,&;45$ *:&4($ %"#$ -./'&'&$ 0.1#)$ 2#%E##4$ L./2*2E#$ *45$ <&;%"$ =,).>*9$ =$ inhabitants who depend on it, is exposed to highly variable rainfall and runoff conditions which
typically occur in the form of droughts and floods. The high variability in rainfall means that the
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climatic conditions are difficult to predict, yet floods and droughts are a direct threat to a large
%"#$3>&'.4($'"*3#$M3##$Figure 2.4N9$$ proportion of the 14 million human inhabitants in the basin, as well as to the diverse ecosystems.
! Rainfall characteristics
Figure 7 illustrates typical variations of rainfall from the annual mean of 334 mm at Beitbridge from
Joint Limpopo River Basin Study – Scoping Phase 1934 to 1984. Specifically, it is observed that in the 60 years between 1934 and 1984, only 25 years
Final Report – Main Report (i.e., 41 % of the years) had above normal rainfall, while 35 years (i.e, 59 % of the years) had below
January 2010 Page 5 (77)
normal rainfall. There is also high variability both among years with above normal rainfall and
among years with below normal rainfall. This indicates the high likelihood of either floods or
droughts in the Limpopo basin. However, the picture becomes complete when looking at the
related flow regime of the Limpopo, which is also characterised by high variability (Figure 8).
!
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4. Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basin
by Matthew McCartney and Tilahun Amede
Water and agriculture are central to economic development and poverty
alleviation in Ethiopia. Drivers of change pose great challenges as well as
substantial opportunities for dynamic and sustained progress.
Current situation
In Ethiopia, 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty
and 5-­‐6 million need food support annually
Locally:
Rural poor are marginalized small holders Environment/Climate Change
Reliant on rainfed agriculture
Short of land (farm size, quality and security of access) Increased variability in climate increases vulnerability of the poor
Lack access to reliable water supply (and other inputs)
Low levels of agricultural productivity Locally:
Extremely vulnerable to hydrological variability But significant water resources Farmers choices more difficult
(125 Bm3 = 1,400 m3 per capita) Increased vulnerability
Nationally: available to contribute to Possible need to change livelihood strategies (e.g. croppers to livestock)
Land degradation is excessive (1.9 Bt topsoil lost annually) development
Low levels of hydraulic infrastructure Basin average irrigation requirement
Low levels of irrigation (640 ha out of potential > 5 million) Nationally:
12,000 1983-­‐2012: 8,244
Average annual irrigation
2021-­‐2050: 8 ,491
Requirment (m3ha-­‐1)
11,000 2071-­‐2100: 9 ,726
Hydrological variability costs economy 1/3 growth Considerable uncertainty about the impacts of CC 10,000
9,000
Area suitable for rainfed agriculture may decline 8,000
Adaptation strategies are essential 7,000
6,000
Investment in water infrastructure (e.g. storage) critical 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Simulated change in irrigation water
requirement in the Blue Nile Basin
under a mid-­‐range climate scenario
(A1B) (1983-­‐2100)
Demographic/Societal
Population growth in Ethiopia is 3.2% per year
Locally:
More mouths to feed
Increased fragmentation of land
Expansion to increasingly marginal land Political/Institutional/Legal
More competition for scarce water and other natural resources
Impedes the economic well being of households Ethiopia Population Since 1988, gradual shift from controlled to more market-­‐oriented economy
180
Population (millions)
Nationally: 160
140 Locally:
Agricultural land is overcrowded and over-cultivated 120
Considerable changes in prices of foods and consumer goods
100
Health infrastructure is not keeping pace with pop. growth 80 Increased opportunities for off-farm activities
Current population 90 million
Energy demand is growing rapidly 60
40 Land ownership vested entirely in the state; security of tenure unclear
Economic and social indicators are declining 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Uptake of technologies and practices affected by tenure
Forecast
Nationally:
Ethiopian state is dominating force in defining access, distribution and tenure of land
Internal market liberalization and devaluation of currency
10 years of negotiation have, so far, failed to deliver a comprehensive
agreement on managing Nile water (Egypt and Sudan yet to sign Nile pact)
Unilateral development of upstream water resources (e.g. Renaissance Dam)
Considerable uncertainty about future political direction
Economic/Trade (Globalization)
Ethiopia is increasingly interlinked to the rest of the World
Comparison of foreign & domestic
Locally:
ag investment in Oromia State
Increased demand for agricultural products
Technological Innovations
Employment opportunities Area (ha) Projects
Disproportionately benefits those with assets Domestic 149,148 2,750
Benefits greatest in areas with infrastructure/communications Foreign 1,444,308 1,001
Risk of increased marginalization of the poor The Information and communications revolution in Africa boosts growth
Voice coverage gaps in Ethiopia
Nationally: Locally:
Greater opportunity for economic growth Increasing access to telecommunications 5% 10%
Ethiopia commodity exchange facilitates food trade and agricultural investment Better informed farmers are able to make better choices
Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers) Need to ensure information tailored to farmers needs
Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systems 85%
Risk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commodities
Foreign Direct Investment in land (and water) Nationally: Existing coverage Efficient market gap Coverage gap
Voice services expanding rapidly but internet more slowly
In Ethiopia on ly one provider so no competition and prices still relatively high

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1. Climate variability
2. Demographic pressure
3. Land pressure
4. Increasing energy demands
5. Trans-boundary issues
6. Political-Economic conditions

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8. 

 

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 
 
 
 
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 
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 
 
 
 
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