Pw c 2012-06-23-issue-4-a-growing-non-core-asset-market

European Portfolio
Advisory Group
July 2012
Issue 4:
A growing non core
asset market
European outlook for non core
and non performing loan portfolios
www.pwc.co.uk

Contents
Foreword................................................................................................................5
Executive summary.................................................................................................6
Highlights...............................................................................................................8
NPLs by country 2008-11........................................................................................9
Germany..............................................................................................................10
UK .......................................................................................................................12
Spain....................................................................................................................16
Ireland.................................................................................................................20
Italy.....................................................................................................................23
France..................................................................................................................26
Netherlands..........................................................................................................28
Greece..................................................................................................................31
Sweden.................................................................................................................33
Russia...................................................................................................................34
Austria.................................................................................................................35
Denmark..............................................................................................................36
Poland..................................................................................................................37
Portugal...............................................................................................................40
Turkey..................................................................................................................42
Ukraine................................................................................................................44
Hungary...............................................................................................................46
Romania..............................................................................................................48
Czech Republic......................................................................................................49
Slovakia...............................................................................................................50
Finland.................................................................................................................51
Kazakhstan..........................................................................................................52
United Arabic Emirates (“UAE”)............................................................................53
European and global contacts...............................................................................54

Foreword
Richard Thompson
Chairman, European
Portfolio Advisory Group
Welcome to our 4th annual European outlook for non core
and non performing loan portfolios. In this document we
explore the activity and outlook for the key European non
core asset markets where the deleveraging process is just
beginning.
Overall we expect activity levels to gradually increase over the
rest of 2012 and 2013, following a strong start to the year.
Funding for non core asset sales is and will remain an issue
but there is liquidity in the market if you know where to look.
We are working with a large number of financial institutions
around Europe and our pipeline is the strongest it has ever
been. We have advised on a significant number of deals this
year and we expect a substantial number of transactions to
come to the market in the coming months.

6 PwC • Issue 4: A growing non core asset market
We believe that the European deleveraging process is still
at a very early stage. We strongly believe therefore that the
market has significant room for growth and we estimate
that non core loan portfolios with a face value in excess of
EUR 50bn will be transacted by the end of 2012.
According to our latest estimates, total European non core
loan assets amount to EUR 2.5trn with European NPLs
exceeding EUR 1trn at the end of 2011, an increase of c.10%
compared to 2010. Spain, Ireland and Italy were the largest
economies experiencing a significant increase in NPLs from
2010 to 2011. Germany and the UK were the two large non
core asset markets where asset quality appears to have
stabilised with no further NPL increases reported.
With almost all major European governments implementing
significant austerity and budget deficit reduction
programmes, the likelihood of European asset quality
improving in 2012 has decreased significantly.
Transaction levels for non core and non performing loan
portfolio assets, have increased by 227% between 2010 and
2011 and have made a very strong start during 2012 with
EUR 27bn of non core assets transacting between January
and June 2012 (see Graph 1). However, the relative
transaction sizes compared to the total volume of non core
and non performing loan portfolio assets suggest that the
deleveraging process is likely to be a very protracted one.
We estimate that investors are currently sitting on
c.EUR 65bn of funds available to invest in loan assets
coming out from the banks deleveraging process. Even
after taking into account the effects of investor leverage, it
is evident that banks who are successful in matching the
right assets to the right investors and are willing to explore
vendor financing options will have a significant advantage
in achieving a successful sale.
Over the last 12 months, transaction levels in the non core loan
portfolio and NPL market have increased significantly, with banks
more actively looking to dispose non strategic or non performing
parts of their loan portfolios. So has the “golden age” of investing
in distressed debt finally started?
Executive summary
Graph 1: Non core asset transactions have increased by more than three fold between 2010 and 2011
and have made a strong start to 2012
2010 2011 2012 (6m)
France, EUR 11.1bn
Germany, EUR 4.3bn
UK, EUR 7.5bn
UK, EUR 8.8bn
UK, EUR 3.6bn
Spain, EUR 4.0bn
Spain, EUR 3.7bn
Italy, EUR 1.9bn
Ireland, EUR 15.0bn
Portugal, EUR 4.2bn
Other, EUR 1.2bn
Other, EUR 4.0bn
Other, EUR 2.0bn
Switzerland, EUR 2.1bn
EUR 36.0 bn
EUR 26.6 bn
EUR 10.8 bn
Source: Press articles, company and other publicly available information

Issue 4: A growing non core asset market • PwC 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
NPLsize(EURbn)
Market transactions (face value) Jan 2010 - Jun 2012 (EUR bn)
Ireland
Spain
Germany
UK
Italy
France
Portugal
NetherlandsCIS
Nordic
Austria
Greece
Tier 4
Low marketliquidity
Tier 2
Low marketliquidity
Tier 3
High market liquidity
Tier 1 High market liquidity
(focus on international investors)
CEE
Turkey
Graph 2: International investors have focused on liquid markets with a significant amount of non core assets
Note: Liquid markets are defined as markets where loan transactions have exceeded EUR 4bn between January 2010 and June 2012
Based on our analysis using transaction data for the last three years, we estimate that
Europe is currently a four tier market from a non core market perspective:
Tier 1 (Liquid markets with EUR 80bn of NPLs):
This tier includes the UK, Spain, Ireland, Germany
and France. These represent markets that are
currently the focus of international investors and are
able to absorb multibillion Euro transactions.
Tier 2 (Illiquid markets with EUR 80bn of NPLs):
This category includes Italy which is one of the largest
European markets although we are seeing some
signs of increasing transactions after a long period of
inactivity.
Tier 3 (Liquid markets with EUR 80bn of NPLs):
This category includes markets that, despite their
moderate size, are characterised by a significant
degree of liquidity. Portugal is one of the smaller
European markets where transaction levels and
average sizes of the portfolios transacted have
remained significantly above expectations given the
market size, EUR 12bn of NPLs in 2011.
Tier 4 (Illiquid markets with EUR 80bn of NPLs):
This includes moderate size markets (such as CEE,
CIS countries, Greece) which, for a number of reasons
(such as increased sovereign risk, dominance of local
investors lacking significant firepower and lack of
developed non core asset transaction framework), are
characterised by relatively few transactions.

Germany:Experienced stabilisation in asset quality compared to 2010 on the
back of a strong economic recovery. Taking into consideration the size of the market, non
core asset transactions have remained at relatively low levels and we expect only a gradual
increase driven mainly by non German institutions looking to exit the German market.
UK: Overall asset quality has stabilised compared to
2010. We expect the UK to be one of the key non core asset
markets for the rest of 2012 and 2013 since it remains the
most popular investment destination for international
non core asset investors. The market is characterised by
significant liquidity and depth, being able to absorb secured
non core portfolio sizes in excess of EUR 1bn. Total non core
loan assets transacted during 2011 stood at EUR 8.8bn,
with Q1/Q2 2012 recording asset sales of EUR 3.6bn
Highlights
Ireland:Asset quality has continued to deteriorate, albeit at a
slower rate than in 2010. Irish banks were one of the most active sellers
of non core assets in 2010 and 2011, focusing mainly on assets outside
Ireland. We expect the rest of 2012 and 2013 to see the first significant
sales of Irish assets, the outcome of which will play a significant role in
price setting and the success of the Irish banking deleveraging process.
CEE:The region
remains dominated
by local players who are now in the process of
expanding their presence across the whole of
CEE in order to leverage their experience and
expanding capital base since, given their limited
size, local markets may offer limited room for
growth. Preferred asset classes remain retail NPLs.
Nordics:Covered for the first time in issue 4 of our publication,
the Nordics are gradually becoming the focus of international investors
given the regional political and economic stability. However the relative
small market sizes and lack of a developed non core asset market will
facilitate only selective transactions in the next 12-24 months.
Spain:Asset quality continued to deteriorate with NPLs recording an
increase of 23% year on year as the property market continues to register
price falls. 2011 has been one of the most active years for the Spanish non
core asset market, driven primarily by increased regulatory pressure on
banks to increase provisions and clean up their balance sheets. Total non core
assets transacted during 2011 stood at EUR 5bn, driven primarily by sales of
unsecured portfolios. We expect transaction volumes and number of sales to
increase further in 2012.
Italy:The Italian market experienced the largest
recorded increase in NPLs from all major western
European economies in 2011, with NPLs increasing
by 37% compared to 2011. The non core asset market
appears to be coming back to life after a significant period
of inactivity, with a number of transactions occurring in
the second half of 2011 and first quarter of 2012.

NPLs by country 2008-11
2008 2009 2010 2011
Germany 142 204 196 196
United Kingdom 88 155 172 172
Spain 66 97 111 136
Ireland 15 88 109 119
Italy 42 59 78 107
Sub-total 353 603 666 730
France 51 77 87 88
Netherlands 32 58 52 52
Greece 12 19 27 40
Sweden 7 15 14 13
Russia 1 17 25 26
Austria 9 12 17 18
Denmark 8 13 16 17
Poland 9 12 15 15
Portugal 5 8 10 12
Turkey 7 10 10 8
Ukraine 2 6 8 7
Hungary 2 3 5 7
Romania 1 3 5 6
Czech Republic 3 4 5 6
Slovakia N/A N/A 2 2
Finland 1 1 1 1
Sub-total 150 258 299 318
Total 503 861 965 1,048
Kazakhstan 4 17 15 19
UAE 4 8 14 18
Estimated quantum of NPLs by country 2008-11 (EURbn)
Source: Various central banks, regulatory authorities, financial statements and PwC analysis

Credit and asset quality trends
The overall loan volume of German
monetary financial institutions
(MFIs) remained relatively stable in
2011. Total lending volume of MFIs
to non-banks marginally declined by
1.3% (EUR 53bn) from EUR 3,995bn
in 2010 to EUR 3,942bn in 20111
.
In contrast, total lending volume of
German MFIs to banks increased
slightly by 0.1% (EUR 3bn) from EUR
2,840bn as of 31 December 2010 to
EUR 2,843bn as of 31 December 20112
.
Based on our estimates, NPLs in
Germany could be as high as EUR
196bn in 2011. This estimate is based
on an analysis of eight out of the
top 10 German banks (measured by
total assets), which disclosed NPL
information via annual reports.
Additionally, NPL volumes of two
bad banks EAA and FMS WM would
1 Deutsche Bundesbank, Banking statistics
February 2012, page 20
2 Deutsche Bundesbank, Banking statistics
February 2012, page 16
further increase our NPL estimate.
These two bad banks are not included
in our estimate. We consider that
the stabilisation in asset quality is
attributed to the recent economic
recovery in Germany.
Non core asset activity level
In 2011, portfolio transactions
remained relatively low mainly due to:
• Government support, which
allowed banks to run-off or
restructure distressed assets instead
of selling portfolios of non core
assets; and
• the pricing gap between sellers
and buyers.
Based on the few publicly known
transactions, major portfolio deals
have covered non-performing
commercial real estate loan portfolios
as well as smaller non-performing
consumer loan portfolios.
Portfolio sizes traded in 2011 ranged
from EUR 136m for smaller property
loan portfolios to EUR 1.3bn face
value for larger commercial real
estate portfolios. The majority of
traded portfolios in 2011 were sold
by commercial banks including
foreign banks as well as local financial
institutions.
The investors currently most active in
the broader European market are also
those most active in Germany. These
are large private equity funds and
specialised distressed debt investors.
There were, however, also much
smaller transactions, which have been
the target of small investors.
Debt funding
Availability of debt funding for non
core asset investors has declined in
2011. This was mainly due to factors
such as the current Eurozone crisis,
the overall negative economic outlook
and increased capital and liquidity
requirements for banks imposed by
Basel III. Consequently, certain deals
were completed with the use of vendor
financing.
Collateral values
Residential property prices in
Germany have picked up since 2010,
mainly driven by favourable financing
conditions. However, price movements
are subject to significant regional
variations with the most significant
increase in prices recorded in urban
areas. Furthermore, prices of newly
constructed houses exceeded those of
owner-occupied houses for resale.
The commercial real estate market
in Germany, in contrast, appears
largely relatively stable from a pricing
perspective. The vacancy rate of office
space declined, leading to an increase
Germany
Asset quality stabilises with government continuing
to support bad banks
Graph 1: Germany - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: BaFin Annual Reports, PwC estimate

in prime rents after a period of
stagnation in 20103
.
Nevertheless, values for non-prime
commercial properties especially in
secondary or tertiary locations are
significantly below their peak.
3 Deutsche Bundesbank, Financial Stability
Review 2011, November 2011, page 50
Source: BaFin Annual Report 2009 and 2010, PwC estimate
Graph 2: German NPL Volume 2005 - 2011 (EUR bn)
190
158
136 142
204 214
196 196
-
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1H/2010 2010 2011
BaFin PwC estimate
Table 1: Recent transactions:
Seller Buyer Asset type UPB (EUR m) Completion date
Bundesbank Not
applicable
Commercial mortgage
backed securities
238 In progress
Eurohypo US Bancorp
/ Blackstone
/ Wells
Fargo
Mixed real estate
performing portfolio
600 (EUR
570m
purchase
price)
Jun-2012
Bundesbank PIMCO Commercial real estate NPLs 1,275 Apr-2012
Bundesbank Lonestar CDO real estate portfolio 960 Apr-2012
Eurohypo Wells Fargo
/ Blackstone
Performing commercial real
estate US loans
424 Apr-2012
Eurohypo US Bancorp Single property loan 136 Apr-2012
Deutsche Bank Lindorff Mixed NPL portfolio
unsecured consumer loans and
commercial loans)
(EUR 200m
purchase
price)
Mar-2012
Bundesbank Lonestar Real estate loan portfolio 430 (EUR
279m
purchase
price)
Jan-2012
Eurohypo Blackstone US residential mortgages 227 Jan-2012
Syndicate comprising of Eurohypo,
Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba),
Berlin Hyp and Archon Capital Bank
Colony
Capital LLC
Commercial real estate NPLs 370 Aug-2011
Market value for the rest of 2012
We expect the factors that have so far
limited the number of transactions
in the German market (mainly
government support for the bad
banks) to continue in 2012, resulting
in a very gradual increase in non core
asset transactions. For that reason, we
expect that transactions will be driven
predominantly by non German financial
institutions looking to exit the local
market as part of an overall strategic
rethinking of their operations.

Total lending in the UK decreased at
an annual rate of 4.7% year on year
in April 20121
, a continuation of a
trend seen in the aftermath of the
credit crisis of 2008. The decline in
lending was driven by a 4.8% year on
year decline to other financial services
firms and a 3.7% year on year decline
in lending to non-financial companies
over the same period. On the other
hand total household lending grew
marginally at 0.2%.
Overall asset quality has remained
relatively stable, compared to 20102
.
However, certain asset classes have
experienced significant deterioration;
commercial real estate being the worst
affected. While residential real estate
values have remained relatively stable
in 2011 and Q1 2012; commercial real
estate prices are expected, according
to many industry experts, to decline
in 2012 and beyond as borrowers face
continued challenges in refinancing
their existing loans, especially for non
prime properties. It is estimated that
1 Bank of England, Bankstats Apr 2012
2 Deutshe Bank: European Banks “Running the
numbers: The Question Bank”-5 September
2011.
between GBP 85bn and GBP 114bn of
outstanding commercial real estate
loans may not be refinancable on
current market terms. This is more
than a third of the GBP 280bn to GBP
292bn value of outstanding debt
secured by UK commercial property
at midyear 20113
. As borrowers find it
increasingly difficult to either service
or refinance commercial real estate
loans, we are seeing an increasing
number of loan sale transactions
involving this particular asset class.
Non core asset activity levels
2011 has seen an increase in
transaction levels. We estimate that
cEUR 8.8bn of non core loan portfolio
assets were transacted in the UK
during 2011, an increase of c17%
compared to the EUR 7.0bn-EUR 7.5bn
transacted during 2010. Non core
loan transactions for 1H 2012 stood at
cEUR 3.6bn.
3 De Montfort University, “UK Commercial
Property Lending Market – Mid Year 2011” –
December 2011.
Typical portfolio sizes sold by UK banks
in the UK and abroad have ranged from
GBP 300m to GBP 1.5bn in unpaid
principle balances, with only a few
portfolios exceeding that amount.
This increase in transactions was
mainly driven by Royal Bank of
Scotland and Lloyds, who pursued a
strategy of disposing a mix of larger
(cGBP 1bn+ face value) and smaller
( GBP 300m face value) portfolios.
On the unsecured side, the sale of
the MBNA credit card portfolio was
one of the largest transactions in that
particular asset type.
The majority of the completed
transactions involved private equity
investors as buyers. Strategic buyers
(such as other financial institutions
looking to expand market share) have
been less frequent market participants
given the liquidity and capital constraints
that many of them are facing.
Many investors have commented
that tranching the larger portfolios
into smaller pools could attract more
market interest and further increase
competitive tension during the sale.
Furthermore, we are currently seeing
investors discussing partnering or
structuring options for some of the
larger portfolios aimed at bridging the
bid ask gap and lack of liquidity in
the market.
UK
Most liquid market with investor appetite
remaining high
Graph 1: United Kingdom - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Deutche Bank Report, PwC analysis

Debt funding
As with the general lending
climate throughout the broader UK
environment, debt funding for non
core asset investors has become more
challenging and expensive over the
past year. The financing structures of
several high profile deals have had to
be altered as conditions deteriorated,
causing delays and putting deals at
risk.
Completed deals have involved a larger
element of equity compared to the pre-
crisis levels (up to and exceeding 50%
in some cases), with debt financing
becoming significantly more scarce
and expensive. Some of the largest
acquisitions have involved vendor
financing. We increasingly see the
provision of vendor financing as one of
the key factors in achieving a seller’s
target price.
Collateral values
We consider that commercial real
estate is one of the most vulnerable
asset classes for the rest of 2012 and
the first half of 2013.
Housing values in the UK were largely
stable over 2011 and early 2012. Over
the long term, residential values in
the UK are expected to increase 6%
over the five years to 20164
. However,
these modest increases predicted
will be challenged primarily by weak
economic growth and constrained
access to mortgage finance.
4 Savills, “Residential Property Focus” – Q4
2011.
Market view for the rest of
2012, 2013
We expect an increase in the number
of transactions beyond Q2 2012. As UK
banks increase their provisioning and
capital levels (UK bank Tier I Capital
Ratios were estimated to be over
12% in 20115
), we see UK financial
institutions becoming increasingly
confident to proceed with further sales
of more complex and illiquid non core
assets. We expect average portfolio
sizes to remain below EUR 1bn,
given the challenges experienced by
investors in raising finance.
Completing a sale remains a
challenge with asset selection,
thorough preparation for sale and
selected investor targeting some of
the key determinants of a successful
transaction.
Investors continue to face challenges
servicing portfolios, particularly in
relation to SME loans. The addition of
a servicing platform with the portfolio
sale makes deals more attractive,
especially for the new entrants to the
UK non core asset market.
We see new players such as sovereign
wealth funds, non-European financial
institutions, insurance companies,
and US investment funds looking to
partner with established investors
in order to help them overcome the
financing gap and address the lack of
expertise in sourcing and completing
non core asset deals.
5 Deutche Bank: European Banks “Running the
numbers: The Question Bank”-5 September
2011.
troubleshooting, abs, Due Diligence, workplace, credit, Property-Management, Immobilie, NPL, Rating, Real-Estate,
Conact, conactor, Bad-Bank, Servicing, interim, turnaround, Cashflowsync, CCFS, Distressed Asset, CMBS, portal
solution, ICD, Kowollik, recupero di credito, datawarehouse, cloud-solution, Workout, Incentive Care,
Institutsverwaltung, distressed, Orgaplan Italien, Special Servicing, DocRating, DueDiligence, Draftcheck, Lucidi,
welltbuero
Treuhand Intesa Unicredit Immobilien Ubibanca ByYou Jerome Chapuis First Atlantic Ricucci EH-Estate Fortress
condominio amministrazione immobiliare condominiale integrazione sincronizzazione ruoli immobiliare millesimo conto
economico Fondo immobiliare IAS/IFRS commercialista KMPG Deloitte revisione MPS Unicredit SGR Banca d`Italia
Legge 106 cartoliarizzazione Reo Immobilie imueble Casa Recupero Credito Bad Bank SIP Sistema integrada
protection Caja workout Credito fallido credits en détresse Troubelshooting incentive care ICD Pfandbriefbank
Eurohypo Portfolio ; Exit - Strategia Immobilienfond Software Orgaplan CONact Unicredit CashflowSync RE-lifecycle
Kowollik deuda morosa UEN Union Estates Network lucidi vendittelli UCCMB italfondiario Due Diligence
Portal-Software Web-Solutions Property

Source: Deutsche Bank
Graph 2: NPLs trend 2001-2011 (EUR bn)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
-
40
80
120
160
200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Estimated NPLs Gross NPLs/Total Loans
Source: Bank of England
Graph 3: Total UK Lending - Annual Growth Rate %
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
May 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Nov 10 Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11 Jan 12 Mar 12 Apr 12
Source: Nationwide Building Society, Halifax
Graph 4: UK Housing Price Index
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Q11983
Q11984
Q11985
Q11986
Q11987
Q11988
Q11989
Q11990
Q11991
Q11992
Q11993
Q11994
Q11995
Q11996
Q11997
Q11998
Q11999
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Q12010
Q12011
Q12012
Nationwide Index Halifax Index

Table 1: Recent transactions
Lloyds Banking Group Not applicable Shipping loan portfolio 7,600 In-progress
Lloyds Banking Group Not applicable Corporate debt positions 1,390 In-progress
Lloyds Banking Group Not applicable UK property loans 720 In-progress
Lloyds Banking Group Kennedy Wilson Europe Irish property loans 360 (EUR 61m
purchase price)
Jun-2012
Lloyds Banking Group Morgan Stanley Real
Estate / Blackstone
Australian commercial real
estate loans
938 (EUR 450m
purchase price)
Jun-2012
Lonestar Tristan and Ellandi Single property loan 51 (EUR 25m
purchase price)
Jun-2012
Undisclosed global FI Aktiv Kapital Unsecured consumer loans 264 Apr-2012
Varde/MBNA Aktiv Kapital Unsecured consumer loans 545 Mar-2012
Lloyds Banking Group HSBC UAE commercial and retail
business
434 Mar-2012
Lloyds Banking Group Sankaty Advisors (Bain
Capital )
Leveraged loans 580 Mar-2012
Babson Capital Not disclosed Leveraged loans 150 Feb-2012
Barclays Bank Kotak Mahindra Indian NPL credit card loan
portfolio
45 Feb-2012
Lloyds Banking Group Not disclosed Commercial real estate assets 208 (EUR 66m
purchase price)
Jan-2012
Barclays Bank Standard Chartered Indian credit card portfolio 27 Jan-2012
Lloyds Banking Group Varde Partners Consumer loans Not disclosed Jan-2012
Lloyds Banking Group Lonestar Commercial real estate loans 1,050 Dec-2011
Royal Bank of Scotland Blackstone Sub-performing commercial
real estate loans
1,622 Dec-2011
Lloyds Banking Group Telereal Trillium Commercial property assets (EUR 52m
purchase price)
Dec-2011
Lloyds Banking Group Goldman Sachs/
Morgan Stanley
Distressed property loans 1,159 Nov-2011
HSBC Cofidis Hungarian consumer
finance portfolio
20 Oct-2011
Royal Bank of Scotland Paragon Group Unsecured consumer loans (EUR 49m
purchase price)
Oct-2011
Citigroup (Egg Banking) Yorkshire Building Society Mortgage book 500 Jul-2011
Lloyds Banking Group Haymarket Financial Leveraged/Corporate loans 100 Jul-2011
MBNA Barclays Bank Consumer credit card portfolio 150 Apr-2011
Royal Bank of Scotland Perella Weinberg Spanish mortgage portfolio 290 Mar-2011
Citigroup (Egg Banking) Barclays Bank Consumer credit card portfolio 2,667 Mar-2011
Barclays Bank Crexus Investment
Corporation
estate loans
(EUR 444m
purchase price)
Mar-2011
Lloyds Banking Group Cerberus Capital
Management
estate loans
110 (EUR 35m
purchase price)
Jan-2011

Total loans granted to individuals and
companies in 2011 amounted to EUR
1,783bn, representing a 3.3% decrease
compared to December 2010 (EUR
1,844bn1
).
In 2011 NPLs of the banking sector
increased by c30% compared to
December 2010, due to the economic
downturn and high unemployment
rate, with the delinquency ratio
standing at 7.8% as at December
20112
.
In 2012 the delinquency ratio has
continued to increase and stood at
8.4% in the first quarter of 2012
Transactions on NPL portfolios have
increased considerably in 2011, with
Spain being one of the most active
markets in Europe. Since January
2011, at least 31 transactions (mainly
unsecured portfolios) have closed with
a total book value of over EUR 9bn.
The principal drivers behind the
increase in transactions are:
• increased regulatory pressure
through an increase in core capital
requirements from 8% to 10%
for those groups or institutions
that have not placed securities
representing at least 20% of their
share capital or voting rights
with third parties and that have
wholesale funding of more
than 20%;
• the need for liquidity as wholesale
markets shut off funding to large
Spanish banks in the second half of
the 2011; and
1 Bank of Spain, March 2012
2 Bank of Spain, March 2012
Source: Bank of Spain
Graph 2: Delinquency rate (EUR bn)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q 2012
Loan NPL ratio
Spain
Regulatory reforms and high distress levels keep the
pressure on banks
Graph 1: Spain - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
40
80
120
160
2008 2009 2010 2011 1Q 2012

• the 100% loss provisioning
required, according to Bank of
Spain regulations, of banks for
unsecured doubtful accounts that
are over 12 months past due.
The type of portfolios that traded
were mainly secured loans, real estate
owned (REO) assets and unsecured
portfolios, with unsecured portfolios
accounting for over 50% of the
debt sold in 2011. The majority of
unsecured portfolios that traded were
made up of lending either to individual
households or Small and Medium
Enterprises (SME) debt.
Sellers in the Spanish NPL market are
typically primary financial institutions,
such as banks, along with utilities
and telecom companies. However,
it is expected in the coming months
additional sellers will consider the
disposal of retail, business and public
entity debts.
The main buyers for the NPL portfolios
sold to date have been international
investors ranging from distressed
debt funds to private equity and
international debt
servicing companies.
The newly elected Spanish government
is implementing deep reforms in order
to strengthen the balance sheets of
Spanish financial institutions including
stronger provisioning criteria. The
government is currently in the process
of implementing a new round of
austerity cuts, as part of the
2012 budget.
During 2011 the Spanish Government
passed a series of measures
driven by the uncertainty in the
financial markets regarding the
value of construction and property
development related assets, in the
context of increased macro-economic
and financial tensions in the euro area.
In February 2012, Royal Decree
2/2012 was approved in order to
reduce the uncertainty of the Spanish
financial sector. The two principal
measures adopted were as follows:
Performing Assets: a generic provision
requirement of 7% was established
on performing loans to construction
and property development companies
(these loans amounted to EUR 123bn
as of December 2011).
Non-performing assets: the
Government required an increase
in the level of provisions and
an additional capital buffer for
problematic loans related to land,
housing, developments under
construction and
completed developments.
The total amount of these additional
provisions required, together with the
capital buffer, amounts to EUR 54bn
for the entire financial system.
In May 2012, the second reform of
the Spanish financial system (Royal
Decree 18/2012) was approved, with
the intention of dispelling doubts
about the quality of the assets in the
financial system. It stipulated further
increase in the generic provisions for
performing real estate assets to cover
the risk of a hypothetical deterioration
in asset quality. The decree establishes
an increase in provisions to 30% on
average (up from 7% in the previous
reform) thereby increasing the
volume of existing provisions by
EUR 2bn. Additionally, the decree
requires entities to transfer all of their
foreclosed assets to an off balance
sheet Asset Management Company
(AMC) at fair value prior to the end of
2012. The decree requires that those
financial entities that receive support
from the Fund for Orderly Bank
Restructuring (FROB) must dispose of
5% of these foreclosed assets per year
and will have a maximum term of 3
years to deconsolidate the AMC (sale
of 51% of equity).
In June, the Spanish Government
requested Eurogroup aid for the
recapitalization of the Spanish
financial institutions amounting
to EUR 10bn. The objective of this
assistance is to meet the capital needs
of those entities that do not reach the
minimum requirements as a result of
provisioning requirements.
Graph 3: NPLs - Individuals (EUR bn) as at March 2012
-
4
8
12
16
20
24
Mortgage Consumer Durable goods
Treuhand Intesa Unicredit Immobilien Ubibanca ByYou Jerome Chapuis First Atlantic Ricucci EH-Estate Fortress
condominio amministrazione immobiliare condominiale integrazione sincronizzazione ruoli immobiliare millesimo
conto economico Fondo immobiliare IAS/IFRS commercialista KMPG Deloitte revisione MPS Unicredit SGR
Banca d`Italia Legge 106 cartoliarizzazione Reo Immobilie imueble Casa Recupero Credito Bad Bank SIP
Sistema integrada protection Caja workout Credito fallido credits en détresse Troubelshooting incentive care ICD
Pfandbriefbank Eurohypo Portfolio ; Exit - Strategia Immobilienfond Software Orgaplan CONact Unicredit
CashflowSync RE-lifecycle Kowollik deuda morosa UEN Union Estates Network lucidi UCCMB italfondiario Due
Diligence Portal-Software Web-Solutions Property Property Management Amministrazione immobiliare
Condominio ciclo di vita del Immobile fundos immobiliarios

Meanwhile, the Ministry of the
Economy and Competitiveness
together with the Bank of Spain
asked for two independent
consultants to estimate the capital
needs of Spain’s 14 main banking
groups under two specific scenarios
(a base scenario and a stressed
scenario). The consultants concluded
that under severe macroeconomic
pressure (the stressed scenario)
capital needs for the Spanish banking
sector as a whole would range from
EUR 51bn-EUR 62bn. Additionally,
Spain’s four largest audit firms,
including PwC, are carrying out a
detailed analysis of the banks’ loan
portfolios assessing, among other
matters, provisioning levels. The
findings are due to be published
by 31 July. The Bank of Spain will
review and validate the results of this
analysis and mandate, if applicable,
the relevant additional capital needs
and/or bank provisions.
We expect that increased core
capital/loan loss provision
requirements will drive new players
to bring new portfolios to the market
as potential asset sales are used as a
way to quickly improve liquidity and
strengthen capital ratios.
Debt funding
In unsecured debt deals, there has
been a strong reluctance to provide
any vendor financing. However,
in some cases profit sharing or
deferred payment structures have
been employed in order to bridge
the price gap between seller and
buyer. In the case of secured deals,
vendor financing and retail financing
is relevant in order to narrow the
bid/ask gap and improve real estate
future marketability.
Other sources of financing include
US based credit facilities available to
US distressed debt funds along with
international investment banks; who
instead of investing directly in these
types of assets via equity, as was the
case prior to the credit crisis, now
prefer to take more senior
debt positions.
Graph 4: NPLs - Corporates (EUR bn)
-
20
40
60
80
Agriculture Industry Construction Real Estate Services
Collateral values
According to the Spanish National
Statistics Institute (INE) as of March
2012 real estate prices have fallen by
10% since the fourth quarter of 2010
and by 22% since the first quarter of
20083
. The main reasons for the decline
in the price values are:
• the deterioration of the economy
and high unemployment, which
stands at approximately 25% in first
quarter of 2012; and
• the increase in housing supply
from the construction boom in
recent years.
Overall, real estate transaction volumes
have declined 76% between 2006 and
2011. Real estate market activity is at its
lowest and new government measures
will attempt to reactivate transactions.
However, real estate prices are
expected to decline further due to the
huge stock of first and second homes
currently owned by the banks, which
are expected to come to the market
gradually over 2012 and 2013. Spanish
banks are currently one of the major
suppliers of property in the Spanish
market. We understand that in order to
facilitate asset sales, financial institutions
are currently offering 100% mortgages to
prospective buyers of REOs.
3 Spanish National Statistics Institute
2012, 2013
The transaction volume of non core
assets in the market in 2012 is expected
to be far greater than those seen in 2011.
A wider variety of assets is also expected
to trade, including unsecured retail/
SME debt, real estate assets, servicing
platforms (currently a market under
consolidation), other subsidiaries, single
names/corporate restructuring and
public administration debt.
NPLs will continue to increase in 2012.
The Spanish economic downturn, both
in terms of GDP and unemployment,
has meant that the delinquency rate
stood at 8.4% as at March 2012, which
is the highest default level since 19944
.
Economic forecasts agree that during
2012 the increase in NPLs will even be
greater, as the recession deepens.
4 Bank of Spain, November 2011

Confidential Confidential Unsecured consumer loans 624 Jun-12
Confidential Confidential Unsecured SMEs 176 Jun-12
Confidential Confidential Consumer loans 305 May-12
Confidential Confidential Consumer loans 1,100 Mar-12
Confidential Confidential Mortgage loans 90 Feb-12
Confidential Confidential Consumer loans 574 Feb-12
Confidential Confidential Mortgage loans 230 Feb-12
Lindorff Confidential Servicing Platform - Feb-12
Confidential Confidential Mortgage loans 170 Jan-12
Confidential Confidential SME loans 100 Jan-12
Confidential Confidential SME loans 240 Jan-12
Confidential Confidential Mortgage loans 150 Jan-12
La Caixa Confidential Consumer loans 900 Jan-12
Confidential Confidential Consumer loans 430 Dec-11
Confidential Confidential Consumer loans 300 Aug-11
Confidential Confidential Consumer loans 760 Aug-11
Bankinter DE Shaw SME loans 130 Jul-11
BNP Confidential Consumer loans 300 Jul-11
Bankia Confidential Performing consumer loans 200 Jun-11
Credifimo-Caja Sol Cerberus Mortgage loans 200 May-11
Santander Cerberus Mortgage and Corporate
loans
260 Apr-11
MBNA Apollo Performing consumer loans 500 Mar-11
BBVA DE Shaw Consumer loans 300 Mar-11
Citigroup Aktiv Kapital Consumer loans 400 Feb-11
Unnim Aktua Mortgage loans 20 Feb-11
Santander Lindorff Consumer loans + Servicing
Platform
350 Jan-11
Orange Confidential Consumer loans 260 Jan-11

The decrease in lending following the
2008 credit crisis continued in 2011
with overall lending to households and
non financial corporations decreasing
by 3.8% and 1.6% respectively
compared to the previous year. Two of
the most affected areas were mortgage
(decrease of 2.5%) and consumption
lending (decrease of 8%)1
.
Asset quality deteriorated marginally
in 2011 as the NPLs of the major Irish
banks (including NAMA) increased by
18% year on year to cEUR 128bn. The
major reason for the increase in NPL
levels has been due to the continuing
decrease in property prices.
The NPLs constituted c25% of the
total loans of the major Irish banks
(excluding NAMA) with a provision
coverage ratio of c56% as at December
20112
.
1 Central Bank of Ireland
2 Financial Reports, PwC analysis
The Irish non core asset market has
been one of the most active markets
in Europe during 2011, experiencing
a significant increase in non core asset
transactions. The uptick in activity
is a direct result of Irish financial
institutions planning to divest EUR
73bn of assets, from January 2011 to
December 2013, under the Financial
Measures Programme3
. NAMA is also
in the process of divesting loans it
previously acquired from these Irish
banks.
Deal sizes have varied widely with
assets being sold ranging from EUR
100m to in excess of EUR 5bn. The
types of assets that have been put
to market and subsequently sold
have been diverse both in type and
performance.
3 Central Bank of Ireland
In total more than EUR 14bn of non
core Irish owned assets were traded
in 2011, making Irish financial
institutions the most active sellers in
the European market.
Market activity has mainly been
restricted to non Irish assets, given
the lower market liquidity in the Irish
market and the higher discounts
required by investors. Assets traded in
2011 and in early 2012 ranged from
project finance loans to commercial
real estate assets and smaller retail
loans. Larger non-performing
commercial and residential real estate
loans have also traded4
.
The loan portfolios have sought
interest and been bought by a mix
of private equity type investors as
well as strategic investors, mostly US
based. The private equity investors
include Kennedy Wilson, Lone Star,
Urbicus and Varde Partners. Strategic
buyers such as SMBC, Wells Fargo,
Nationwide, JP Morgan and GE have
also acquired portfolios5
.
4 News articles, PwC analysis
Ireland
Irish banks are on path to achieve their
deleveraging target
Graph 1: Ireland - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Finanacial Reports, PwC analysis

Debt funding
External debt financing has been scarce
and we believe that most assets were
purchased predominantly through own
funds available to major US private
equity players, global banks and more
strategic acquirers (such as Nationwide
and Wells Fargo).
We expect that Irish banks looking to
dispose of Irish portfolios and assets
will need to give serious consideration
to the provision of vendor financing
given the scarcity of finance for these
types of assets and the high discounts
required by investors.
Collateral values
Property prices in Ireland continued to
deteriorate with residential property
index declining by 14% year on year in
2011 as compared to a 10% decline in
20106
. Similarly commercial property
values posted a year on year decline of
10% in 2010 and 20117
.
(10%)
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Total Lending to Households
Total Lending to Non-financial corporations
Source: Central Bank of Ireland
Graph 2: Changes in lending to households and non-financial corporations
60
80
100
120
140
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Source: Central Statistics Office
Graph 3: CSO Residential Property Price Index

Allied Irish Bank Not applicable Property loans 675 In-progress
Allied Irish Bank Not applicable SME/real estate loans 480 In-progress
Ulster Bank Not applicable Commercial real estate loans 1,000 In-progress
Allied Irish Bank Bank of America
Merill Lynch
Leveraged and corporate loans 300 Jul-2012
Bank of Ireland PensionDanmark UK infrastructure project finance loans 270 (EUR 255m
purchase price)
Jul-2012
GE Money Pepper Irish residential mortgage business 600 Jun-2012
Bank of Ireland Aviva Special PFI UK infrastructure project finance loans 200 (EUR 162m
purchase price)
Jun-2012
NAMA Morgan Stanley REI Property and development project loans 220 Mar-2012
Bank of America Apollo Credit card portfolio 650 Mar-2012
NAMA Pears Group/
Development
Securities
Development assets 120 Mar-2012
Allied Irish Bank Swedbank Mortgage portfolio Latvia Not disclosed Mar-2012
NAMA Orion capital
management
Property loans to Cyril Dennis 600 (EUR 326m
purchase price)
Dec-2011
Bank of Ireland Sumitomo Mitsui
Banking Corporation
Project finance loans 590 Nov-2011
NAMA John Caudwell Car park (EUR 174m
purchase price)
Oct-2011
Bank of Ireland Kennedy Wilson
Institutional Investors
UK commercial real estate loans 1500 (EUR 1,215m
purchase price)
Oct-2011
Bank of Ireland Mortgage Works/
Nationwide
UK residential property loans 1350 (EUR 1,240
purchase price)
Oct-2011
Bank of Ireland GE Energy
Financial Services
Project finance loans 700 Oct-2011
Allied Irish Bank Blackstone and
Wells Fargo
US commercial real estate loans 460 Oct-2011
NAMA Maybourne
Finance Ltd
Hotel loans (EUR 800m
purchase price)
Sep-2011
Anglo Irish Bank Lonestar, Wells Fargo
and JP Morgan
US commercial real estate loans 7,200 Aug-2011
Bank of Ireland Wells Fargo US commercial real estate loans 1,000 Aug-2011
Anglo Irish Bank Elliot Associates/
Urbicus
Scottish property loans 348 Jun-2011
2012, 2013
In 2012, we expect to see a
continuation of the banks’ efforts to
deleverage which will help maintain
the upward trend in transactions
experienced during 2011. There
are transactions with a total UPB of
greater than EUR 2.5bn which are
currently either in progress or about
to be brought to the market.
We expect to see continued interest in
these assets, especially by US private
equity players that have available
funds for investment in case suitable
opportunities arise. A substantial
increase in supply could lower
prices of these portfolios and help in
reducing the bid-ask gap.

Total lending by Italian banks increased
by 3.6% in the period from December
2010 to December 2011. Short term
lending (up to 1 year) grew at a rate
of 5.4% while medium and long term
lending grew at 3% only. Corporate
lending increased 3.1% over the year
while lending to households increased
by 4.3%. Real estate lending grew by
4.4%. Overall, banks have continued
to tighten underwriting criteria, with
many corporate borrowers concerned
over their ability to access credit.
Property lending has been adversely
affected as well with the application
of stricter loan-to-value (LTV)
requirements, which have restricted
new lending significantly1
.
1 ABI Monthly Outlook – February 2012 –
Synopsis
In December 2011, total gross NPLs in
the Italian banking system exceeded
EUR 100bn, reaching EUR 107bn
(an increase of 37% compared to
December 2010). At the same time,
loan provisioning increased to 44%
from 40% over the same period.
The significant deterioration in
asset quality is mainly attributed to
worsening economic conditions in
Italy, exacerbated by the austerity
programme implemented by the
current government2
.
In 2011, various banks started to
actively look into their options for
maximizing value from NPL portfolios.
Synopsis
In the first half of 2011, three
competitive bid processes commenced,
involving a variety of portfolios: UBI
Banca (EUR 0.8bn), Intesa SP (EUR
4bn) and Banca delle Marche
(EUR 1 bn)3
.
However, the escalation of the Italian
sovereign debt crisis affected the
disposal processes adversely. This was
mainly due to the increasing return
expectations of investors driven by the
increasing country risk premium for
Italian assets, resulting in a significant
increase in the price gap between
buyers and sellers.
3 Press release, Financial statement notes
Italy
Significant increase in NPLs as economic
conditions worsen
Graph 1: Italy - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: ABI Italian Banking Association

Despite the sovereign crisis, all of the
three banks managed to complete
the sale of a portion of the original
portfolios, comprising mainly
unsecured well provisioned loans. UBI
Banca sold a portfolio of EUR 0.1bn
in H1 2011, while Banca delle Marche
and Intesa SP sold EUR 0.3bn and EUR
1.6bn in Q1 2012, respectively. UBI
and Banca delle Marche mainly sold
unsecured portfolios whereas
Intesa SP sold a mix of secured and
unsecured portfolios4
.
In addition to the above, other sales
of small NPLs, highly provisioned
unsecured portfolios closed over the
past year in the Italian market. This was
driven mainly by the need of financial
institutions to reduce NPL levels while
at the same time minimise losses.
4 Press release, Financial statement notes
Debt funding
The three disposal processes started in
2011 attracted the interest of different
international investors together with
local small funds, financial boutiques
and servicers. The limited sizes of the
portfolios finally sold by UBI Banca and
Banca delle Marche pushed the deal
towards local players who financed
the deal solely through equity. On the
other hand, the more recent and sizable
Intesa SP NPL portfolio was sold to
international investors, using leveraged
structures. The buyers have not been
publicly disclosed except for FBS, which
bought the portfolio from Banca delle
Marche5
.
5 Press release
The funding market conditions, which
deteriorated significantly since the
summer 2011, are now improving as a
result of the new technocratic Italian
Government and the measures adopted
by the Euro leaders to address EU
sovereign debt crisis. Moreover, the
ECB LTRO facility in addition to Italian
state guarantees on new bank bonds,
helped stabilise liquidity and funding in
the short and medium term. We believe
that, going forward, this could facilitate
the application of vendor financing or
deferred payment structures in non
core asset transactions.
Collateral values
In the last 10 years, the Italian real
estate market has not experienced a
real estate bubble.
In 2011, despite underwriting criteria
continuing to tighten and despite the
liquidity shortage, the Italian real estate
turnover recorded a marginal increase
(2011 year on year change expected to
close, on average, at +1.7%) with this
positive trend expected to continue in
2012 (year on year change estimated
at 2.0%)6
.
In terms of price changes, the real
estate market in 2011 remained
relatively stable compared to the
previous year. In 2012 the real estate
market is expected to record a marginal
growth from a pricing perspective
(residential expected year on year price
change at +1%; offices at +1% and
commercial at +1.4%)7
.
Synopsis
7 European Outlook 2012 - Scenari Immobiliari
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Source: ABI monthly outlook
Graph 2: Loan growth analysis

2012, 2013
As a result of the economic downturn
in 2012 we expect NPLs to continue
to grow with banks considering
the various options available for
enhancing their balance sheet
situation and improving liquidity.
At the same time, the recent
measures (such as the labour and
structural reforms) undertaken by
the technocratic government have
strengthened confidence in the Italian
economy and increased the appetite of
international investors for investments
in the Italian non core assets.
We believe that this will lead to the
increase of NPL deals starting from H2
2012. Furthermore, in order to bridge
the bid ask gap, financial institutions
and investors are currently exploring
structured solutions such as
partnership or other profit sharing
arrangements.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Graph 3: Net NPL/total asset
Graph 4: Gross NPL (EUR bn) and coverage rate
Intesa SP Not disclosed Mixed secured and unsecured
loans
1,640 (EUR
270m purchase
price)
Q1 -2012
Banca delle
Marche
FBS Mainly unsecured loans 305 Q1 -2012
UBI Banca Not disclosed Unsecured loans 130 Q2 - 2011
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
20
40
60
80
100
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar 11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
Gross NPL Provision coverage

Total loans remained broadly stable
compared to 2010, increasing
marginally by 1.17% in 20111
. Even
though banks have confirmed they
are still willing to continue extending
credits to consumers, SMEs, and
corporate borrowers, they have
tightened underwriting criteria
significantly, especially in relation
to borrowers in perceived “high
risk” activities such as real estate,
Leveraged Buy Outs (“LBOs”) and
shipping.
Overall asset quality has decreased
only marginally, with NPLs increasing
by only 1% to EUR 88bn in 2011,
compared to EUR 87bn as at the same
period in 2010
1 Source: Capital IQ
French banks have been relatively
inactive in 2011 in relation to non
core asset sales. However, a significant
increase in transactions has been
experienced during the first quarter
of 2012 when French banks traded
assets in excess of EUR 8bn, focused
mainly on non French exposures
(predominantly USD exposures).
We believe that this is mainly
attributed to the EBA announcement
that all key Eurozone banks will
need to meet 9% Tier 1 capital buffer
ratio by 30 June 2012. As part of this
process, we expect loan portfolio sales
to accelerate during the second half of
the year and 2013.
The majority of the sellers to date
have been major French financial
institutions, which have been
transparent in relation to their
deleveraging targets. On the other
hand there have been limited
announcements in relation to the
regional and mutual banks.
As a result of the above, international
investors are now becoming more
interested in the French market after a
long period of inactivity.
Debt funding
Availability of funding for investors
is expected to decrease in 2012
especially for portfolio sizes in excess
of EUR 300m given the limited
liquidity and funding for
French banks.
Source: Financial Reports, PwC analysis
Graph 1: France - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
20
40
60
80
100
2008 2009 2010 2011
France
Activity peaks driven by French banks disposing non
French assets

2012, 2013
It is expected that most of the major
French Banking institutions have
already met the 9% Tier 1 capital
buffer ratio expected by the EBA as at
30 June 2012. As a consequence, we
expect that asset sales will continue
to increase albeit at a marginal rate
focusing on non French assets (US,
UK, other European countries). Due
to political pressures, French banking
institutions are still reluctant to launch
sales process in France.
Societe Generale Citigroup Shipping loans (EUR 1,000m
purchase price)
Jun-2012
Societe Generale AXA Real Estate Performing real estate loans 1,200 Jun-2012
BNP Paribas Wells Fargo American energy lending
business
8,300 Apr-2012
Societe Generale Lone Star Mainly unsecured loans 200 Apr-2012
Societe Generale Wells Fargo Property loans 454 Nov-2011
BNP Paribas Not disclosed Spanish unsecured loans 300 Jul-2011

Total loan levels on a consolidated level
have increased marginally by 2.6% to
EUR 1,921bn in 20111
.
Many banks are trying to reduce their
residential mortgage portfolios.
NPL levels for both corporate and
households have remained relatively
stable over 2011 and currently total
EUR 52bn. NPLs as percentage of
total loans stood at 2.7%, a decrease
from the peak in 2009 when they
reached 3.2%2
.
There were no large, complex portfolio
sales. While banks have generally
tried to decrease their exposures to
residential mortgages, it has proven
difficult to find buyers for such
portfolios. We understand that local
and foreign lenders are currently
exploring options in relation to
mortgage and corporate portfolios.
Both SNS Bank and DSB Bank (in
bankruptcy) have sold parts of their
mortgage portfolios. DSB Bank has sold
parts of its portfolios in earlier years as
part of the bankruptcy and liquidation
proceedings. At the same time SNS
bank has recently come under market
pressure and is looking to strengthen its
capital base3
.Typical sizes of portfolios
sold varied between EUR 80m and
EUR 900m.
1 Source: De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
2 Source: De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB)
3 Source: SNS press release, Novapars press
release, Reuters
Netherlands
Limited transactions as pricing gap remains high
Graph 1: Netherlands - NPLs (EUR bn)
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: DNB
Source: De Nederlandsche Bank
Graph 2: Netherlands - Loans and receivables (EUR bn)
1,740
1,790
1,840
1,890
1,940
2008 2009 2010 2011

Local investors have been the most
active ones to date in the market.
These are, in most cases, independent
financial investment firms that focus on
the acquisition of performing and non-
performing, consumer and mortgage
loan portfolios in the Benelux
and Germany.
Debt funding
In general, banks have been much more
cautious about lending and we believe
are unlikely to finance non core
asset deals.
Source: De Nederlandsche Bank
Graph 3: Netherlands - NPL / Total loans (%)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2008 2009 2010
Source: Kadaster (Land registry), House price index
Graph 4: Netherlands - House price index (2005 = 100)
95
100
105
110
115
2008 2009 2010 2011

Collateral values
Residential property prices in the
Netherlands have decreased by 4% in
20114
. This represents a continued
decline in house prices after decreasing
in both 2009 and 2010. The financing
market tightened further in 2011
with the risk appetite of the existing
property lenders continuing to reduce.
In addition, commercial real estate -
especially office buildings - has shown
increasing rates of vacancy. As of
January 2012 approximately 14% (or
6,795,000 m2
) of the total available
office space stood vacant5
. This implies
pressure on commercial real estate
values, which are expected to fall
further in 2012.
4 Source: Kadaster (Land registry), House price
index
5 Source: Real estate agency DTZ Zadelhoff
2012, 2013
We expect that banks will continue to
have a preference for mainly running
off non core portfolios and only selling
selected parts of their loan book in
order to avoid reporting large losses.
This is because the potential losses
from a large non core asset sale are
likely to outweigh any benefits from
capital release.
Uni-Invest
(Opera Uni)
Patron Capital /
TPG Capital
Defaulted CMBS 365 Apr-2012
Confidential Novapars Capital Residential mortgages (EUR 80m
purchase price)
Sep-2011
DSB Bank Novapars Capital Mortgages and
consumer credit
(EUR 115m
purchase price)
Jun-2011
SNS Bank SNS Reaal First loss pieces of
mortgage securitisation
(EUR 900m
purchase price)
Dec-2010

Total loans to the private sector in 2011
decreased by approximately 3.6%1
from 2010 levels, mainly as a result of
restricted supply from the banks.
On the demand side, the decline in
households’ borrowing is the direct
result of the significant decreases in
disposable income. This is evidenced by
the already high NPL ratio in consumer
loans and the extensive restructurings
of retail loan portfolios by the banks.
Particularly with regards to mortgage
loans, demand has been low, as
potential property buyers anticipate
greater adjustment in property prices.
On the supply side, banks’ limited
access to funding, uncertainty over the
final amount of their recapitalisation
needs arising from the Greek debt
restructuring and general uncertainty
over the prospects of the Greek
economy, have resulted in a significant
tightening of lending criteria.
Asset quality has significantly
deteriorated in 2011, with gross non-
performing loans surging from 10.5%
in December 2010 to 15.9% of total
gross loans2
. Consumer loans’ NPL
ratio reached 28.9% in December
2011, while mortgage and corporate
NPL ratios stood at 15.0% and 14.1%3
respectively. Contributing factors to
the disposable income deterioration
include increased GDP contractions
(approximately 6.9% year on year in
2011) and high unemployment levels
(unemployment reached 17.7% in 2011
vs. 12.5% in 2010)4
.
1 Bank of Greece, Apr 2012
2 Bank of Greece, June 2012
3 Bank of Greece, June 2012
4 ELSTAT
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 Mar-2012
Graph 1: Greece - NPLs (EUR bn)
Greece
Deteriorating economic conditions and uncertainty
keeps investors away
Source: Bank of Greece
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2008 2009 2010 2011
Mortgages Consumer Corporate Total
Graph 2: NPL as a % of total loans by category

Banks’ deleveraging has been focused
mainly on non core foreign assets. In
the last two years banks focused on
the disposal of foreign subsidiaries,
rather than on the disposal of NPLs of
non core portfolios. The main reasons
behind reduced appetite for deals in
Greece include:
• the increased sovereign risk and
economic instability in Greece; and
• the significant price gap between
buyers and sellers, making
potential transactions prohibitively
expensive for banks, especially
given the existing recapitalisation
plan arising from the Private Sector
Involvement (“PSI”) in the Greek
sovereign debt restructuring.
Collateral values
Residential property prices across the
country continued their downward
trend in 2011. In the Attiki and
Thessaloniki areas, property values
declined approximately 6.5%
compared to 2010, while prices in other
Greek urban regions dropped by c4%5
.
5 Bank of Greece, April 2012
2012, 2013
Following their recapitalisation, Greek
financial institutions are expected to
undertake significant deleveraging
steps over the rest of 2012 and 2013.
The consolidated core Tier 1 minimum
regulatory capital requirement for
Greek banks has been set at 9% by
end-September 2012 and 10% from
June 2013 onwards6
. We expect that
this will force banks to restructure
their balance sheets through the
disposal of non core assets that carry
an increased risk weight and higher
regulatory capital requirements.
There is limited visibility on how
the loan portfolio market will
perform in 2012. Any market
developments will depend on the
banks’ shareholding structure
following the recapitalisation and
the macroeconomic environment, as
the economy is expected to enter in
a sixth year of recession in 2013. On
the positive side, the conclusion of the
loan quality assessment by Blackrock
should provide investors with a clearer
view regarding the quality of loan
portfolios in Greece.
6 Law 4046/2012 (Government Gazette nr. Α’
28/2012)
Blackrock estimated system-wide loan
losses over a three year horizon in the
range of EUR 30-EUR 35 bn (before
provisioning and future profits)7
, out of
which, reportedly, approximately EUR
18bn have already been provided for.
So far, balance sheet deleveraging is
focused on the disposal of banking
and non banking subsidiaries and
investments -both domestic and
internationally based (realising EUR
950m in sales of foreign
loan portfolios8
).
The banking industry in Greece is
expected to be affected in the medium
term by the revised bank resolution
framework. This framework provides
various intervention techniques,
including the transfer of assets and
liabilities and the creation of an Interim
Credit Institution (“ICI”). The Hellenic
Financial Stability Fund (“HFSF”),
which according to the new legislation
will provide capital into ICIs, is required
to dispose any bank holding within a
period of two years from the time of
recapitalisation (although this deadline
may be extended for an additional two
years for the sake of financial stability).
Proton bank was the first bank to be
resolved, setting up an ICI in
October 2011.
7 IMF Country Report No.12/57, March 2012
8 IMF Country Report No.12/57, March 2012
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
240
244
248
252
256
260
2008 2009 2010 2011
Gross loans Gross NPLs / Gross loans
Graph 3: NPL development in the Greek market (EUR bn)

Overall bank lending in Sweden
declined nearly 1% from December
2010 to June 20111
. Gross NPLs as a
percentage of total lending decreased
from 1.8% in December 2010 to 1.6%
in June 20112
.
1 PwC estimates and bank information
2 PwC estimates and bank information
and market overview.
Sweden is a relatively new market in
relation to non core asset sales, given
that Swedish banks have not been
significantly affected by the Eurozone
crisis. Even though we are not aware of
any significant transactions occurring
during 2011 and the first quarter of
2012, it is currently becoming the
focus of many international investors.
In certain cases, Swedish banks have
been looking to expand their exposures
to core markets by acquiring portfolios
from Western European banks looking
to exit these particular markets. At
the same time they are focusing on
disposing holdings in markets that are
no longer considered core.
Swedbank Delta Bank JSC Retail portfolio 170 May-2012
Source: Press release
Sweden
Relative new market now becoming the focus of NPL
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Sweden - NPLs (EUR bn)

As at 1 January 2012 the total amount
of outstanding loans by Russian
banks loans was EUR 540bn (RUR
22,500bn), representing a 26%
increase compared to the total loan
balance as at 31 December 20101
.
This growth was mainly driven by
an increase in retail lending of 45%
(from EUR 90bn or RUR 3,649bn as
at 31 December 2010 to EUR 131bn
or RUR 5,439bn as at 31 December
2011). Corporate loan portfolios have
also grown by 21% in 2011 (from
EUR 337bn or RUR 13,569bn as at 31
December 2010 to EUR 409bn or RUR
17,061bn as at 31 December 2011)
largely due to significant increase in
lending to companies operating in the
energy gas and telecommunication
sectors.
The overall increase in banks’
lending activity in 2011 was driven
by increasing domestic demand for
retail credit, rising oil prices, as well
as liquidity support provided by the
Central Bank of Russia.
1 Central Bank of Russia
Overdue loan portfolios increased
by 4% to EUR 26bn (RUR 1,098bn)
between 31 December 2010 (EUR
25bn or RUR 1,017bn)2
and 31
December 2011. Due to the significant
increase in loan portfolios (while
provision levels remained stable), the
overall delinquency rate decreased
from 5.9% as at 31 December 2010
to 4.9% as at 31 December 2011.
The delinquency rate on retail loans
declined from 7.6% as at 31 December
2010 to 5.3% as at 31 December 2011.
NPL transactions increased by 31%
from EUR 1.4bn (RUR 60.2bn) in 2010
to EUR 1.9bn (RUR 78.7bn)
in 20113
.
The main driver behind transactions
level in 2011 is the increased interest
of banks in NPL portfolio sales
rather than outsourcing to collection
agencies services.
2 Central Bank of Russia
3 Sequioia Credit Consolidation
Similar to most of the CEE markets,
most of the transactions related to retail
NPL portfolios with average transaction
sizes of EUR 50m to EUR 75m. The
very low volume in corporate portfolio
transactions can be explained by the
wide price gap between buyers and
sellers and unwillingness from some
of the banks to make public the poor
quality of their portfolios.
Transactions during 2011 were
predominantly completed by local
collection agencies financed mostly
through equity.
Collateral values
Property prices remained largely
flat in 2011 with no expectations for
significant price increases in 2012.
2012, 2013
We expect the number of NPL
transactions to increase by c30% during
the rest of 2012 and early 2013, which
is in line with forecast growth in retail
lending, as the Russian non core asset
market continues to mature. However
the lack of established regulatory
framework for NPL acquisitions is an
impediment to the market reaching its
full potential.
Russia
Transactions remain limited with focus on
retail portfolios
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Russia - NPLs (EUR bn)

The Austrian banking sector is currently
focused on meeting the EBA’s target of
a 9% core Tier 1 ratio by 30 June 2012
mostly by restricting lending in the
CEE market rather than cutting lending
significantly in their local Austrian
market. Going forward it is expected
that any lending in CEE will be financed
solely by local deposits rather than by
wholesale funding or their own capital.
During the past year (2011), the
Austrian market has seen a limited
number of non core asset transactions.
In 2011 ÖVAG sold its stake in
Volksbanken International, comprising
CEE network banks, to Russian
Sberbank for a purchase price of up to
EUR 645m. This transaction has been
the largest 2011 announced Austrian
transaction2
.
2012, 2013
We expect that non core asset
transactions will remain relatively
stable in 2012, focusing on selected
loan portfolios outside Austria and,
most likely in CEE.
2 Mergermarket
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Austria - NPLs (EUR bn)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2008 2009 2010 2011
Erste Group Bank Austria RZB
Graph 2: NPL ratio of selected Austrian banks
Total credit in the Austrian market
increased 1.1% over the first half of
20111
. This followed a 2.4% annual
increase in 2010.
1 OeNB, Finanzmarktstabilitätsbericht 22 S126
At the same time credit quality
deteriorated with total NPLs
increasing by 4% in 2011 over the
prior year for Erste Group, Bank
Austria and RZB.
Source: Financial Reports
Austria
Banks concentrating on the Austrian market as
looking to decrease CEE exposures
Source: OeNB, Finanzmarktstabilitätsbericht 22 S126

Total loans outstanding for
commercial banks declined from EUR
202bn in 2009 to EUR 168bn by end of
2011, driven primarily by a decrease
in corporate lending. However loans
from mortgage banks have been
growing steadily from EUR 296bn to
EUR 323bn over the same period. The
development within Tier 1 banks is
primarily driven by repo lending no
longer being recorded on the books1
NPL levels have increased marginally
by 6.25% to EUR 17bn in 2011 from
EUR 16bn in 2010. The trend is to a
large extent negatively affected by
write downs in the assets managed
by the Financial Stability Fund where
the asset quality is particularly poor.
There is however significant variations
between NPL levels among different
banks with some struggling with
material increases in vulnerable and
non-performing loans2
.
1 Danish Central Bank
2 Finanstilsynet, Pengeinstitutternes
regnskaber 1. halvår 2011, Halvårsartikel
2011 for pengeinstitutter
During 2011, some limited activity
has occurred within real estate
portfolios with banks and mortgage
institutions trying to slim down their
balance sheets in order to focus on
core business. Most recently, the
Financial Stability Fund took over FIH
Erhvervsbank’s real estate portfolio
with a clause that FIH would cover
any losses Financial Stability incurs on
the portfolio.
Improved asset pricing during Q1-
Q2 2011 along with increased equity
values faded during 2011, as the
Eurozone crisis became the investors’
main focus of attention.
The key loan assets that have traded
relate to prime real estate (central
Copenhagen), infrastructure,
and healthcare.
Denmark
NPL levels increase marginally with transaction focus
mainly on mortgage portfolios
Sellers have predominantly been
local banks along with mortgage
institutions. Buyers have typically been
international real estate private equity
funds, other major financial institutions
and, in certain cases, high net worth
individuals.
Debt funding
Debt funding depends on the type of
buyer. Although it remains available to
major financial institutions looking to
invest in non core assets, it has not been
available to other investors.
Collateral values
Property prices are now beginning to
stabilise after 3 years of price falls,
supported by historically low finance
costs since demand for property has
been driven to a great extent by the
very low interest rates on mortgages.
There are however very large
geographical differences between the
demand for property in the bigger cities
and the outskirts of Denmark, which
are still recording significant price falls3
2012, 2013
We expect that non core asset sales
will remain relatively stable for the rest
of 2012 and 2013, as Danish financial
institutions wait for the Eurozone crisis
to stabilise prior to proceeding with
significant non core asset sales.
3 Sadolin Albæk, Property market reports 2010
and 2011
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Denmark - NPLs (EUR bn)

Lending growth has been marginally
positive1
as of April 2012 compared to
2010. The most significant growth has
been in the SME and corporate loan
sector with a 26% and 15% increase
respectively compared to December
2010. The residential and housing
loans in PLN have experienced
growth of 29% compared to 2010
but foreign exchange denominated
mortgages remained stable (with a
shift from CHF to EUR). On the other
hand, consumer loans experienced
a decrease of 5% compared to
December 2010.
Foreign exchange structure was not
changed, with c1/3 of the loans
outstanding at April 2011 consisted
of foreign exchange denominated
contracts which were impacted in
2011 by PLN-fx volatility (in the
period December 2010 to April 2011
PLN depreciated by 16% against
CHF and 11% against EUR). This
volatility resulted in an increase in
NPLs, especially in CHF
denominated mortgages.
1 Polish Financial Supervision Authority
Reports
Levels of NPLs have decreased
marginally at April 2012 mostly due
to improvement in SME and corporate
portfolios (from 14.6% at December
2010 to 12.4% at April 2012 and
from 9.4% to 7.8% respectively).
On the other hand, non-performing
household consumer loans and
mortgages increased by 1% to 18.3%
and by 0.7% to 2.5% respectively over
the same period
In 2011/12 there was an increase in
transaction levels as compared
to 2010.
In 2011 Polish financial institutions
have been predominantly focused
on selling their retail portfolios. In
the first half of 2011, there were only
limited sales of corporate portfolios.
Over the last 3-5 years more banks
used the sale of non core loans as an
effective way of dealing with NPLs.
Poland
High transaction activity focused on small
retail portfolios
Graph 1: Poland - NPLs (EUR bn)
The most active seller in the Polish market
in 2011 was PKO BP - the largest bank in
Poland. Other sellers include banks such
as BZ WBK or Kredyt Bank. In addition
the telecoms and IT industry have been
very active in selling receivables.
On the investor side, the local investor
market has also shown steady demand
for such assets.
Debt funding
The majority of completed transactions
involved securitization funds, which are
a part of specialized debt
collection companies.
Financing for deals has typically
included the issuance of asset backed
securities or debenture bonds as well as
revolving loans. The receivables market
has seen interest from national and
overseas professional investors. Some
of the firms are listed on Warsaw
Stock Exchange.
Availability of funding for investors
appears likely to decrease in 2011 due
to lower liquidity in the market.
Collateral values
Prices of real estate experienced a
marginal decrease in 2011 and this
trend has continued in 2012. According
to Central Statistical Office of Poland,
price per square meter for residential
properties decreased by c14%2
. This
was driven mainly by excessive supply
of flats and other residential properties
available in the market and stricter
underwriting criteria applied by the
banks for housing and
property lending.
2 Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2008 2009 2010 2011 Apr-2012
Source: KNF Reports, IBnGR

2012, 2013
We expect the NPL market to grow
further over the next 2-3 years despite
the bid ask gap and uncertainty
over collateral prices and financing
shortage. Banks and other creditors
will be more willing to sell their
portfolios, as they recognize benefits
from such transactions and investors
are able to realise their targeted
returns. However, we do not expect
average transaction sizes to increase
significantly given the limited
presence of international investors.
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
2009 2010 2011 April 2012
Large SME
Graph 3: Non-performing loan ratios for enterprises (%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11
Households EnterprisesNon-financial sector
Graph 4: NPL Provisions per loan type (%)
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
2009 2010 2011 April 2012
Credit card lending Other consumer loans Housing loans Other
Graph 2: Non-performing loan ratios for main types of loans to households (%)
Source: Polish Financial Supervision Authority Reports

Seller Buyer UPB (EUR m) Completion date
Eurobank KRUK S.A. 28 (EUR 3m purchase price) Jun-2012
BPH GE Capital S.A. Fast Finance S.A. 17 (EUR 2m purchase price) Jun-2012
Electronic media company P.R.E.S.C.O. 12 (EUR 2m purchase price) May-2012
BNP Paribas Bank Polska
S.A.
P.R.E.S.C.O. 5 (EUR 1m purchase price) Jun-2012
Idea Bank S.A. Gremi Solutions S.A. 2 (EUR 0.1m purchase price) Jun-2012
PKO BP SA KRUK S.A. 63 (EUR 5m purchase price) Apr-2011
PKO BP SA Ultimo 4 (EUR 1m purchase price) Apr-2012
PKO BP SA Intrum Justitia 163 (EUR 34m purchase price) Apr-2012
PKO BP SA Kredyt Inkaso 126 (EUR 29m purchase price) Dec-2011
PKO BP SA Kredyt Inkaso 122 (EUR 5m purchase price) Dec-2011
BZ WBK SA KRUK S.A. 55 (EUR 11m purchase price) Dec-2011
Bank P.R.E.S.C.O. 20 (EUR 2m purchase price) Dec-2011
Financial institution EGB Investments SA 3 Dec-2011
Krakowski Bank Spółdzielczy Cash Flow S.A. 3 Nov-2011
Santander Bank S.A. KRUK S.A. 130 Nov-2011
Telecom company P.R.E.S.C.O. GROUP S.A. 2 Nov-2011
PKO BP SA Kredyt Inkaso 232 (EUR 28m purchase price) Oct-2011
PKO BP SA P.R.E.S.C.O. GROUP S.A. 8 Oct-2011
Eurobank S.A. P.R.E.S.C.O. GROUP S.A. 25 (EUR 2m purchase price) Oct-2011
Insurance services company EGB Investments SA 1 Sep-2011
PKO BP SA KRUK S.A. 83 (EUR 17m purchase price) Sep-2011
PKO BP SA BEST II NS FIZ 13 Sep-2011
Telecom company EGB Investments SA 1 Jul-2011
BRE Bank S.A. KRUK S.A. 145 (EUR 23m purchase price) Jun-2011
Telecom company EGB Investments SA 1 Jun-2011
Insurance services company EGB Investments SA 1 Jun-2011
PKO BP SA KRUK S.A. 130 Jun-2011
IT company EGB Investments SA 1 May-2011
IT company EGB Investments SA 5 Apr-2011
Kredyt Bank SA BEST S.A. 280 Apr-2011
IT company EGB Investments SA 1 Mar-2011
Source: Press articles, Company and other publicly available information

Portugal
Servicing market and legal enforcement remains a
concern as deleverage accelerates
As at December 2011, loans granted by
the financial sector to companies (non-
financial corporations), decreased
by 3% compared to December 2010.
Loans to households decreased by 2%
over the same period, with the most
significant credit reduction observed
on consumer loans, which experienced
a decrease of 7.2% in December 2011
compared to the same period in 20101
.
NPL increased by 20% to EUR 12bn as
at the end of 2011. The deterioration
in the overall credit quality has mostly
derived from the SME and consumer
loans. As at December 2011, overdue
SME loans stood at 8.1% comparing
to 5.4% in December 2010. As at
December 2011, consumer overdue
loans stood at 10.5% compared to
8.5% in December 20102
.
We believe that this is a direct result
of the economic downturn registered
in 2011 and the significant rise of the
unemployment rate. According to the
Bank of Portugal, the unemployment
rate in Q4 of 2011 increased to 14%
1 Bank of Portugal
2 Bank of Portugal
which was significantly higher than
the 11.1% recorded in the same
period of 2010. At the same time,
GDP for the year ended 30 September
2011 dropped 1.7% compared to the
previous year.
The key driver behind the recent
portfolio transactions has been the
need of national banks to “deleverage”
their balance sheets, as a result of
the increasing capital requirements
imposed by local regulators and
international authorities.
Portfolio sales recorded to date
comprised mostly of performing,
syndicated project finance loans
granted to UK, USA, and Latin
American borrowers. These portfolios
are known to have been traded in Q1
and Q2 2011 to several investors (sold
in tranches) located in South America
and Asia.
In addition to the above, there has
been a significant increase in the sale
of unsecured portfolios.
Sizes for the non core asset portfolios
sold varied from EUR 1bn – 2bn for
some of the performing portfolios to
EUR 50m – 200m for the unsecured
portfolios.
Banco Espírito Santo and Millenium
BCP were the most active sellers
during 2011. There have been limited
sales from non financial institutions.
These portfolios were traded in
tranches and sold to various investors
located in South America and Asia.
Collateral values
Despite limited liquidity, residential
real estate prices have only dropped
by 0.8% in 2011. However further
property price drops are expected
in 2012, mainly as a result of the
prolonged economic uncertainty and
the austerity programme implemented
by the Portuguese government.
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Portugal - NPLs (EUR bn)
Source: Bank of Portugal

Banco Espírito
Santo
Tranches split by
several banks (Asia and
Latin America mostly)
Performing (international)
loans - Project Finance
2,600 Q1 - 2011
Millenium BCP Not disclosed Performing (international)
loans - Project Finance
1,600 Q2 - 2011
2012, 2013
Portuguese Banks are expected to
continue deleveraging their balance
sheets during 2012 as a result of
various factors, but most notably
• the increasing capital requirements
from banking regulators;
• rising funding costs stemming from
increased reliance on wholesale
funding; and
• liquidity constrains.
We expect that the deleverage
process will be completed through a
combination of NPL portfolio sales
along with sales of non strategic
financial investment/participations
such as non Portuguese subsidiaries of
the major financial institutions.
While servicing capability is still a
concern for investors, the external
servicing market has increased
significantly over the last couple
of years. Concerns over the legal
enforcement process remains, in our
view, one of the main constraints
for successful portfolio trades.
Enforcement timing remains well
above European norms, contributing
to a widening of the bid ask gap
between buyers and sellers.

Turkey
Significant decrease in NPL levels and an uptick
in lending
Credit and asset quality ratings
Supported by strong domestic
demand and low interest rates, Turkey
experienced total lending growth of
nearly 9% in 20111
. However, the local
regulator (CBRT) put a limit on loan
growth in order to slow the overall
economy.
Even though total loan volume
increased by 9%in 2011 compared to
2010, NPLs decreased by 20% in 2011
with the NPL ratio declining to 3.8%2
(cEUR 8bn).
1 BRSA
2 BRSA and PwC estimates
Non core and NPL transaction
levels have continued to increase in
2011, as demonstrated by the total
assets managed by the various local
collection agencies, summarised in the
table opposite.
2012, 2013
The Turkish local non core asset
market is established with a major
number of local players specialising
in the acquisition of NPLs. Given that
the Turkish NPL ratio has consistently
floated in a range between 3% and 5%
from 2008 to 2011 we are of the view
that transaction levels will remain
relatively stable going forward.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Turkey - NPLs (EUR bn)
Source: BRSA, PwC analysis

Denizbank Girişim Asset Management Consumer loans 14 Apr-2012
Isbank Efes Asset Management Consumer / Corporate loans 79 Dec-2011
Yapı Kredi LBT Asset Management Consumer loans 104 Nov-2011
Denizbank Standard Asset Management
Efes Asset Management
Consumer / Corporate loans 48 Oct-2011
Finansbank LBT Asset Management Corporate loans 103 Feb-2011
Denizbank Girişim Asset Management Consumer / Corporate loans 40 Apr-2011
Şekerbank Girişim Asset Management Consumer / Corporate loans 52 Mar-2011
29 38 54
99 118
167 172 182
257
279
6 5
3
5
5
6 7 10
10
8
21.3%
13.0%
6.4%
5.0%
3.9%
3.6% 3.8% 5.6%
3.8%
2.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Loans Total Gross NPL Total Gross NPL / Loans Total
Graph 2: Turkey - NPL Loan (EUR bn)
Source: BRSA

Ukraine
Fall in property prices drives banks to focus on
unsecured retail loan transactions
Credit and asset quality ratings
In 2011, total lending increased 9.7%
compared to 20101
. After a temporary
freeze, almost all Ukrainian banks
renewed their lending activities, in
both corporate and household markets
for both secured and unsecured.
Despite the increase in lending, the
level of NPLs has decreased by 5.3%
in 20112
. The key driver has been the
improvement of risk management at
the banks and more effective debt
collection procedures.
During 2011, Ukrainian banks focused
predominantly on selling their retail
NPLs, largely through bilateral non
public transactions. We estimate that 80-
90% of NPLs for sale are non-performing
consumer unsecured portfolios.
1 National Bank of Ukraine
2 National Bank of Ukraine
Non core sales will be driven by :
• strategic repositioning by sellers
(for instance, several banking
groups have left the retail lending
market and some multinational
banks announced plans to
exit Ukraine);
• repositioning of financial institution
balance sheets in order to improve
credit ratings and release internal
resources from debt collection
activities; and
• favourable changes in taxation.
The main sellers of non core assets
have been the large Ukrainian banks
with foreign capital. The main
driver for these sellers is to comply
with tighter regulatory and tax
rules. Buyers of the majority of the
completed non core transactions have
involved local collection agencies with
significant presence in Ukraine.
Collateral values
Property prices fell by 7.5% on average
since 2010 in both residential and
commercial property, due primarily to
the depreciation in the local currency.
0
2
4
6
8
10
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Ukraine - NPL (EUR bn)
Source: National Bank of Ukraine

2012, 2013
We expect sales of consumer NPLs
to continue strongly for 2012 and
2013, as an established way for the
banks to decrease their NPL ratio.
We gradually expect banks to start
bringing consumer residential
mortgage portfolios into the market;
however that will depend on the
property market stabilising.
Source: Natioal Bank of Ukraine
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
10.5%
11.0%
11.5%
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
2009 2010 2011
Total loans NPLs as % of total loans
9.7% 9.7%
11.2%
Graph 2: Ukraine - Loans and delinquency rate (EUR bn)

Hungary
Depreciation of HUF one of the main reasons behind
increase in NPLs
Total lending of the Hungarian
banking sector has remained
relatively stable, increasing by 3%
over the eleven months to November
20111
. However, the two opposing
factors that have influenced total
loan growth in Hungary are:
• the local currency (HUF), which
has depreciated 15% against the
Swiss Franc and has resulted
in an increase in the principal
outstanding on Swiss Franc
denominated lending; and
• the generally restrained lending
activity by Hungarian banks.
1 Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority
(HFSA)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 September
2011
Special watch loans
Below average loans
Doubtful loans
Bad loans
Total bad, doubtful, below average and
special watch loans / Total loans (%)
Graph 2: Hungary-Loans (HUF bn)
0
2
4
6
8
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Hungary - NPLs (EUR bn)
Source: Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority (HFSA)
Source: Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority (HFSA)

NPLs have increased by 40% over
2011, primarily driven by deterioration
in the asset quality of residential
mortgage loans. The depreciation of
HUF against the Swiss Franc (CHF)
was the main reason behind this
deterioration, as loan repayments in
CHF denominated loans increased
significantly adversely affecting
affordability2
.
Key drivers behind transactions
across the Hungarian market are the
increased NPL levels, reduced lending
and regulatory pressure. Regulatory
issues include:
• the bank tax (based on the amount
of total balance sheet assets) levied
on the financial institutions, which
has increased the cost of holding
non core assets; and
2 Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority
(HFSA)
• the option for debt repayment
at fixed exchange rates for FX
mortgage loan debtors.
In Hungary, debt management and
collection companies are the typical
buyers of NPL portfolios from banks
and other financial institutions.
Similar to the rest of the Eastern
Europe, transactions are financed
mainly through own funds and with
limited use of debt. Details of these
transactions are not usually public.
One loan sale transaction which was
published in 2011 was the sale by
HSBC Credit Zrt. of its retail loan
portfolio to the Hungarian branch
of Cofidis. The deal value of this
transaction was EUR 14.8m3
.
3 HVG, ProfitLine
Collateral values
The property prices and the volume of
property transactions remained stable
in 2011, increasing only 1.5% for the
year to September 20114
.
2012, 2013
We expect a slight increase in NPL
transaction volumes, mainly as the
banks gradually attempt to decrease
the size of their balance sheets.
4 FHB House Price Index
HSBC Credit Zrt. Cofidis Retail loan portfolio (EUR 15m
purchase price)
Dec-2011
Source: Press release

Romania
Foreign banks exploring exit options
Total nominal loan growth of the
banking sector in 2011 was 4.7% for
the year. However, taking into account
inflationary pressures, in real terms
credit shrunk in the second half of
2011 by 3% compared to the
prior year1
.
The largest growth in NPLs was the
retail credit segment. Its deterioration
began in the second half of 2010 and
was primarily driven by a contraction
in disposable income as public sector
employees took, on average, a 25%2
cut in their salaries, as a result of the
government’s effort to decrease the
budget deficit. Unemployment growth
was also a major contributor to inability
of borrowers to service the debt.
1 NBR “Financial Stability Report 2011”
2 NBR “Financial Stability Report 2011”
Romania has seen medium levels of
activity over the last 12 months, driven
mainly by unsecured retail loans where
pricing gaps between sellers and buyers
have been minimal. This was because
banks’ provisioning levels were, on
average, higher than secured loans and
expected recoveries closely reflected
investor expectations. In contrast,
pricing gaps in retail mortgage NPLs
are now only beginning to close as
banks are willing to accept structured
exit strategies that avoid immediate or
full de-recognition at prices which are
below their expectations.
Local affiliates of Western European
banks have been the most active in
sales of NPL portfolios.
The size of portfolios sold usually
ranged from EUR 50m – EUR 100m
during 2011, similar to what was
recorded in 2010. Given that the
nature of transacted NPL portfolios is
retail unsecured, investors are willing
to acquire portfolios that contain a
relatively low average individual UPB
to ensure a higher recovery.
The majority of investors that have
acquired distressed assets were local
affiliates of international collection
agencies, given availability of special
servicing remains scarce. In most cases
transactions are completed via an
international vehicle with limited or
no use of debt.
Collateral values
Residential property prices have
marginally decreased by 2.4%
compared to 2010. We expect marginal
price falls to continue for the rest of
2012 and early 2013.
2012, 2013
We expect a gradual increase in non core
asset activity levels including residential
mortgages and secured corporate NPLs,
as Western and Southern European
banks decide to decrease their presence
in the region. We expect sellers to offer
part of their servicing platform along
with their portfolios, given the lack of
servicing infrastructure.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Romania - NPLs (EUR bn)
Source: NBR “Financial Stability Report 2011”

Czech Republic
Limited transaction activity with local collection
agencies dominating the market
Total lending in the Czech Republic
increased by EUR c5bn, or 5.8%, to
cEUR 92bn as at the end of 2011.NPLs
grew from an average of 3.4% of all
loans in 2005-08 to 5.2% in 2009 and
6.2% in 2010, mainly as a result of
the economic recession and Eurozone
crisis. At the end of 2011 the NPL
share of total loans declined by 2%
to 6% and in the first four months of
2012 the NPL share stabilized
at 5.9%1
.
Non core asset activitiy levels
Transaction activity in 2011 has been
very limited and has been dominated
by recurring (usually quarterly or
six monthly) smaller (EUR 2m of
unpaid principal balance) portfolio
sizes. Low nominal unpaid balances
combined with relatively high
enforcement costs (such as legal fees)
make the sale option a very attractive
value realisation option for banks with
limited special servicing resources.
1 Czech National Bank
As a result, the largest market
participants were replaced by
smaller, local collection agencies
that have gained significant market
share over the last couple of years.
There are currently c60 legal firms
and specialized collection agencies
operating in the non core asset arena,
with the majority market share
concentrated in the top 20. There are
also new regional incomers from the
CEE region that are currently looking
to establish their business on the
Czech market. Most deals have been
financed primarily with equity since
debt financing has been very limited.
The primary sellers of NPL portfolios
have been financial institutions
(bank, leasing companies, consumer/
sales finance). In addition there
has also been activity from
public passenger transportation
companies, utility providers, and
telecommunication operators.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2008 2009 2010 2011
Graph 1: Czech Republic - NPLs (EUR bn)
Source: Czech National Bank
Collateral values
Core Czech real estate markets:
• Land and residential development
prices are, on average, recovering
very slowly following significant falls
in the aftermath of the credit crisis in
2008, however significant variations
exist depending on the location and
type of the property.
• The recovery in the commercial real
estate sector is expected to be even
more protracted than the residential
with new developments almost
grounding to a halt in the last
two years.
2012, 2013
We expect transaction levels and
portfolio sizes to increase for the rest of
2012 and 2013, as new CEE investors
enter the market. In order to support
larger transactions, certain financial
institutions are currently considering
offering vendor financing.

Pw c 2012-06-23-issue-4-a-growing-non-core-asset-market

Pw c 2012-06-23-issue-4-a-growing-non-core-asset-market

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