This is a research project outlining the compiled criteria for modelling grape production and disease development in South West Nova Scotia. This was achieved with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at the Centre of Geographic Sciences (COGS) using data provided by the Applied Geomatics Research Group (AGRG).
Microclimates and soil characteristics give Nova Scotia grape growers a unique environment to produce high quality wine grapes, even though it is a cooler climate region for vineyards.
There are inherent diseases and stress related threats, but effective planning and management strategies including policy standards assist to mitigate crop damage. Moreover, there exists a potential to recognize improvement to management practices related to seasonal temperature trends.
Mapping Grape Suitability in South West Nova Scotia (SWNS)
1. S I M P L I F I E D M O D E L L I N G F O R D E T E R M I N I N G
P O T E N T I A L G R A P E D I S E A S E S
Mapping Grape Suitability in South
West Nova Scotia (SWNS)
Presented by: Kirk Dabols
2. Presentation Overview
Acknowledgements
Brief history of Nova
Scotia wine
Nova Scotia grapes
Nova Scotia grape
diseases
Disease modelling
Suitability modelling
Problem context
Purpose of research
Study area
Suitability context
Purpose of research
Objectives
Data sets
Data Preparation
Study Area
Weather Stations
DSS
Methodology
Soil suitability
Data processing
Station suitability
3. Brief History Nova Scotia 2011
French settlers began growing
grapes in the 1600’s
Wine industry established in
1980’s
Increasingly steady growth since
1993
Nova Scotia Grapes
Nova Scotia wine industry
contributed approximately $200
million dollars to provincial
economy
Attracted over 100,000 tourists
Fourth largest grape producer in
Canada, following Ontario, B.C.
and Quebec
22 grape growers and 400 acres
4. Geography Microclimates
Peninsula on Canada’s east
coast between Atlantic
Ocean and the Bay of
Fundy
Warm ocean currents,
prevailing winds,
topographical landscape
and extreme tides
Unique climate for growing
world class grapes
Generally cooler climate
Characterized by
latitude, glacial deposits,
geographical landscapes
and phenomena
Longer frost free periods
Increased heat
accumulation
Wind, temperature and
precipitation variation
Nova Scotia Grapes
5. Wine, Wine, Wine Cultivars
Grape variety?
Trellis
Location
Soil
Depth
Ph
Drainage
Slope
Facing direction
Processing
Storage
Management practices
Vineyard management vs. wine
making
Baco Noir
De Chaunac
Leon Millot
Lucie Kuhlmann
Marechal Foch
L’Acadie Blanc
New York Muscat
Seyval
Vidal blanc
Chardonnay
Pinot Noir
Riesling
Nova Scotia Grapes
6. Getting technical L’Acadie Blanc
Labruscana
Vinifera
Vitis vinifera
Hybrids
1984 Helen Fisher and
Kentville Research
Station
Kentville White Variety
KW94-1
Nova Scotia Grapes
7. Nova Scotia GrapesTable 1: Nova Scotia Grape Varieties.
Red Hybrids
Grape Origin Description Winter Hardiness
Baco Noir France (Baco 1) Folle Blanche x V. riparia crossed in 1902 by Francois Baco. Vines are very vigorous and difficult
to manage after injurious winter. Should be grown on heavy poorly drained soils. Wine is often deep in
colour, fruity and herbaceous.
Fair
De Chaunac France Vigorous and productive variety. Clusters are large and loose which require thinning to maintain
consistent yields and quality. Wine is considered fair in quality. Requires high heat units and good canopy
management.
Fair
Leon Millot (Millot) France (Kulhmann194.2) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. This is the sister
seedling to Marechal Foch. Compared to Foch, vines are more vigorous, produce smaller berries, and ripen
a few days earlier with lower acid levels. Wine is similar taste to Foch.
Good
Lucie Kuhlmann France (Kulhmann 149-1) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. This is the sister
seedling to Marechal Foch. It ripens earlier than Foch and is good for cooler sites.
Good – Very Good
Marechal Foch
(Foch)
France (Kulhmann188.2) V. riparia-rupestris x Goldriesling crossed by Eugene Kuhlmann. Most common red
wine in Nova Scotia because of reliability and productivity. Wine is described as intense, dark red-violet
with distinct complex quality good for producing in cool climates.
Very Good
White Hybrids
L’Acadie blanc
(L’Acadie)
Canada (V. 53261) Seibel 13053 x Seyve-Villard 14-287 crossed in 1953 by O.A. Bradt of the Horticultural Research
Institute of Ontario, Vineland Station. This is the sister seedling to Veeblanc. Wine is described as slightly
spicy and has a flowery aroma.
Good
New York Muscat United States of
America
Muscat Hamburg x Ontario crossed by Richard Wellington in 1926 at the New York State Agricultural
Experiment Station. Vines have low to medium vigor. Productivity is low to medium. Wine has distinct
Muscat flavor and is used to make sweet Muscat wines and for blending.
Good
Seyval France (SV 5276) Seibel 5656 x Seibel 4986 cross made by Seyve-Villard in France. Vines are moderately vigorous
and produce large bunches. Prone to over-cropping and winter injury. Crop size control must exist to
ensure maturity in Nova Scotia.
Fair
Vidal blanc (Vidal) France (Vidal 256) Ugni Blanc x Seibel 4986 cross made by J.L. Vidal in France. Vines are vigorous and
productive. Vines will suffer winter injury if they become too vigorous on coarse textured soils. Late in
ripening and can be potential for ice wine. Quality is good but challenge to grow in Nova Scotia.
Fair
Vinifera Varieties
Chardonnay France Widely grown European grape in Nova Scotia. Moderately vigorous and productive, highly susceptible to
many diseases. Winter hardy, yet still requires a good frost free period. Produces high quality with apple
and pear flavors.
Good
Pinot Noir France Considered to be more difficult variety to grow but has the most potential to produce high quality red wine
in Nova Scotia’s cool climate. Most susceptible to winter injury but capable of reliably ripening on warm
sites. Compact bunches and thin-skinned berries. There are various clones and should be considered as
some will ripen earlier and are hardier.
Poor
Riesling Germany Has a high winter hardiness and suitable for quality wine. Though late ripening season severely affects
quality. Has greatest potential for producing high quality sparkling wines and ice wines opposed to still
wines. Recommended for Nova Scotia warmest sites only.
Good – Very Good
(AgraPoint 2008 and AgraPoint 2009)
8. Diseases Parameters
Downy Mildew
Powdery Mildew
Anthracnose
Grey Mold
Black Rot
Crown Gall
Temperature
Precipitation
Past-season
Relative humidity
Nova Scotia Grapes Diseases
Carisse, et. al., 2006)
9. Nova Scotia Grape Diseases
Temperature Season
Moisture
Carisse, et. al., 2006)
10. Management Weather Trends
Frost burns
Pruning
Air disturbance
Organic pesticides
Growing degree days
Frost free period
Winter minimum
Crop production
Nova Scotia Grapes Management
2014, http://www.practicalwinery.com/marapr05/marapr05p48.htm
11. Nova Scotia Grapes Diseases
Table : Macro Analysis - Weather Conditions Conducive for Major Grape Diseases in Eastern Canada
Key Factors Diseases
Disease Downy Mildew
Fungus: Plasmopara viticola
(Mildiou)
Powdery Mildew
Fungus: Erysiphe necator; (Uncinula necator) (Blanc,
Oidium)
Black Rot
Fungus: Guignardia bidwelli (Pourriture noire)
Min-Max Temp: 11°C - 28°C 8°C - 32°C 9°C - 32°C
Optimal Temp: 22°C - 26°C 23°C - 27°C 20°C - 25°C
Precipitation: Heavy Rainfall
> 10 mm
Dry (cloudy - humid)
2.5 mm
Rainy with light showers, rain with heavy showers
and water accumulation on ground
0.25 mm
Wetness Duration: 2 -3 hours 12 -15 hours > 6 hours
Relative Humidity: > 98 % 97-99 % Not an added factor
Duration for Infection: 24 hours 2 -3 weeks
Grape Variety
(slight susceptibility):
Baco Noir
L’Acadie
Lucie Khulmann
Marechal Foch
NewYork Muscat
Seyval
L’Acadie De Chaunac
L’Acadie
Leon Millot
NewYork Muscat
Vidal
Grape Variety
(moderate
susceptibility):
Vidal Baco Noir
De Chaunac
Lucie Khulmann
Marechal Foch
NewYork Muscat
Resisling
Chardonnay
Lucie Khulmann
Marechal Foch
Seyval
Grape Variety
(high susceptibility):
Chardonnay
De Chaunac
Leon Millot
Pinot Noir
Resiling
Chardonnay
Leon Millot
Pinot Noir
Seyval
Vidal
Baco Noir
Pinot Noir
Reisling
(Carisse, et. al., 2006; Craig, 2013)
13. Suitability Modelling
Table: Climatic Limitations to Wine Grape Production
Climate
Rating
Degree Days
above 10°C
Frost-free period
(days)
Winter Minimum (°C) Suitability Rank
Most Suitable > 1300 180 -21°C 3 times or less in 10 years.
Minimum not less than -23°C.
4
Good
Suitability
1100 - 1300 165 -21°C 5 times or less in 10 years.
Minimum not lower than -26°C.
3
Fair
Suitability
900 – 1100 150 -21°C almost every year.
-26°C or lower only once in 10
years.
2
Poor
Suitability
< 900 130 -23°C 5 times or more in 10
years.
-26°C 3 times or more in 10
years.
1
(Lewis et. al., 2008)
ASDF
Table: Climatic Limitations to Wine Grape Production
Soil Rating Potential Rooting Depth
(cm)
Suitability Rank
Most Suitable > 90 4
Good Suitability > 80 3
Fair Suitability > 70 2
Poor Suitability > 60 1
(Lewis et. al., 2008)
14. Problem Context
Increasingly growing
industry
WANS and GGANS
Vineyard management
kits
Weather data
Soil Data
Synthesized results
15. Purpose of Research
The purpose of the research is to develop a GIS model
using historical data to evaluate the susceptibility of
grape varieties to weather related parameters and be
used for future improvements.
16. Objectives
1. Use an established set of
criteria for indicating
certain crop stress and
quality.
2. Create a historical
weather model of SWNS
using provided data sets.
3. Apply criteria to weather
model.
4. Analyze and determine
the areas of interest.
5. Evaluate the effectiveness
and limitations of the
model.
The following are research
objectives to assist in
developing a GIS model:
17. Data sets
Environment Canada
weather stations (69)
AGRG weather stations
(7)
Soil Data (DSS)
NS 20m DEM
SWNS study area
26. Production models Disease models
Temperature models
GDD5
GDD10
Frost-free Period
Time of exposure to extreme
cold
Winter Minimum
Weather conditions
Time of exposure
Moisture
Downy Mildew
Powdery Mildew
Black Rot
Production vs. Disease
"Station" = 'GREENWOOD' AND "Month" >=4 AND "Month" <=11 AND
"Min_Temp__" >= 8 AND "Max_Temp__" <= 32 AND "Mean_Temp" >=23 AND
"Mean_Temp" <=27 AND "Total_Rain" >= '10'
27. Methodology
AGRG and EC weather
trend production models
AGRG and EC weather
trend disease models
Station SUIT = GDD10 SUIT + FFP SUIT + WinMin SUIT
+ DM SUIT + PM SUIT + BR SUIT
SUIT GDD10 FFP WinMin DM PM BR Soil
1 poor poor poor high high high poor
2 fair fair fair moderate moderate moderate fair
3 good good good low low low good
4 most most most least least least most
Soil data
Python script
31. 2012 vs. 2011, 2013
On average 100 GDD10 higher
2013 poor frost free period
Results vs. quality of grape
3 years vs. 5 years vs. 10
32. Conclusions and Future Considerations
AGRG station modifications
Site analysis for disease modelling
Base criteria for disease development
Time factor
33. Acknowledgements
I would like to thank David Colville from the Applied Geomatics Research Group
(AGRG) for his time, commitment and assistance on this project. Also, I would
like to thank Wayne Reiger from the AGRG who greatly assisted with providing
project data. I would like to thank Josh Horton and Micheal and Jocelyn
Lightfoot, from Lightfoot and Wolfville Organic Vineyards (L&W) who were
generous to provide private data for this project. I would like to thank Kevin Keys
for providing soil related data for this project. I would like to thank Garett Gaudet
for his assistance with python programming.
34. References
AgraPoint. (2009).Recommended grape varieties for Nova Scotia. Retrieved from
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDYQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.perennia.ca%2FFact%2520Sheets%2F
Horticulture%2FFruit%2FGrape%2FRecommended_Wine_Grape_Varieties_for_NS.pdf&ei=d878Uo-
mIem9yAG0uoHACw&usg=AFQjCNGG8VTnT77Sxku0HFak-wBB_nLPbA
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2014). Download soil name table and soil layer table. Retrieved from http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/nsdb/soil/v2/download.html
Carisse, O., Bacon, R., Lasnier, J., & McFadden-Smith, W. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2006). Identification Guide to the Major Diseases of Grapes. Retrieved
from http://www.agr.gc.ca/eng/science-and-innovation/science-publications-and-resources/technical-factsheets/identification-guide-to-the-major-diseases-of-
grapes/?id=1210281691267#alt
Craig, B. (2013). Grape Management Schedule: A guide to weed, insect and disease management in grapes in Nova Scotia. Perrenia. Retrieved from
http://perennia.ca/Pest%20Management%20Guides/Fruits/2013%20Grape%20Insect%20and%20Disease%20Management%20Schedule.pdf
Drysdale, C., Webster, T., Mccarthy, C., Ure, D., Kehler D., Spooner I., Brylinsky M., Richard M., Fenech A., Liu8, A., Milne K., Murphy M., Colville D., & Ross A. ()
Climate Change And Adaptive Resource Management In The Southwest Nova Biosphere Reserve.
Government of Canada. (2014). Climate and Tides. Retrieved from http://www.collectionscanada.gc.ca/eppp-
archive/100/200/301/ic/can_digital_collections/west_nova/climate.html
Gadoury, D. M., Seem, R.C., Wilcox, W.F. Kennelly, M. (2005). Epidemology and Control of Grape Downy Mildew.
Hardwick Jones, R., Westra, S., & Sharma, A. (2010). Observed relationships between extreme sub‐daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity.
Geophysical Research Letters, 37(22).
Integrated Pest Management. (2004). Degree-day Calculation. Retrieved from https://ipm.illinois.edu/degreedays/calculation.html
JOST Vineyards. Grape Growing. Retrieved from http://www.jostwine.com/default.asp?mn=1.25.52
35. References
Kittilsen, L. (2008). Business Planning and Economics of Wine Grape Production in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from
http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/NSAgricultureEconomicsofWineGrapeProduction.pdf
Lewis, J. An introduction to grape growing in Nova Scotia. Retrieved from
http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/An%20Intro%20to%20Grape%20Growing%20in%20NS.pdf
Lewis, J. C., Jamieson, A., Gordon, R., & Patterson, G. (2008). Opportunities and Challenges for Wine Grape Production in Nova Scotia.
http://www.perennia.ca/Fact%20Sheets/Horticulture/Fruit/Grape/Opportunities_and_Challenges_for_wine_grape.pdf
Moran, J. (2012). On Nova Scotia Farms: A Teacher’s Guide to Nova Scotia Agriculture. Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. Retrieved from
http://novascotia.ca/agri/documents/education/resources_NSFarmPRF16-sen.pdf
Nova Scotia Department of Agriculture. (2007). Nova Scotia Farm Winery Policy. Retrieved from http://www.novascotia.ca/agri/mbd/WineryPolicy.pdf.
Pesticide Risk Reduction Program, Pest Management Centre & Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. (2006) Crop Profile for Grape in Canada.
Rimerman, F. (2013). The Economic Impact of the Wine and Grape Industry in Canada 2011. Retrieved from http://winesofnovascotia.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2013/04/CVA-WANS-Economic-ImpactStudy.pdf
Rieger, W. and Colville, D. (2012). South West Nova Scotia (SWNS) Temperature and Solar Radiation Study: 2012 Project Summary.
Soliman, A., Heck, R. J., Brenning, A., Brown, R., & Miller, S. (2013). Remote sensing of soil moisture in vineyards using airborne and ground-based thermal inertia
Data. Remote Sensing, 5(8), 3729-3748.
VineTech Canada. (2014). Helps & Tips. AE Media Inc. Retrieved from http://www.vinetechcanada.com/help-tips/
Vierra, T. (2005). Mechanized leaf removal shows good results. Retrieved from http://www.practicalwinery.com/marapr05/marapr05p48.htm
Warnert, J. (2007). UC Cooperative Extension advisor researches biodynamic grape production. Retrieved from http://ucanr.edu/News/?uid=991&ds=191
Winery Association of Nova Scotia. (2011) Room to Grow: We are rooted in Nova Scotia. Retrieved from http://winesofnovascotia.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2013/04/CVA-Study-WANS-Press-Kit.pdf
Wines of Canada: Nova Scotia. (2011). Retrieved from http://www.winesofcanada.com/scotia.html
Hinweis der Redaktion
Hello
Talk: nova history, increasing industry, the industry is booming, recently it is growing and moreover now in 2014 its is still growing
The Nova Scotia wine industry historically began with French settlers in the 1600’s, but it was not until the 1980’s when the industry truly established (Winery Association of Nova Scotia (WANS), 2011). Since, 1993 a steady growth has been observed and economic expansion of the industry has been more recently experienced (StatsCan, 2012 as cited in WANS, 2011). Moving forward, in 2011 the wine industry contributed approximately $200 million dollars to the provincial economy (Erskine, 2013 and Rimerman, 2013) and attracted over 100,000 tourists. Nova Scotia is currently the fourth largest wine grape producer in Canada, behind Ontario, B.C. and Quebec in terms of acreage, tonnage and sales (Rimerman, 2013).
Part of the history is defined by nova’s microclimate regions.
Explain geography
This geography provides microclimate regions
These micro climate regions provide unique weather conditions
Microclimates and soil characteristics give Nova Scotia grape growers a unique environment to produce high quality wine grapes, even though it is a cooler climate region for vineyards. Microclimate regions provide grape growers with a longer frost free period and more heat accumulation where nearby locations may not have similar temperature trends (Lewis et. al., 2008). Microclimates can be produced from various geographic landscapes and phenomena; Nova Scotia is uniquely defined by its latitude, prevailing winds, ocean currents and tides, historical glaciers and topography (Lewis et. al., 2008). Since Nova Scotia has a relatively cooler climate this requires for certain cultivars to be grown over others, however yields an ability to produce high-quality grapes by creating hybrid wines.
Wine-making vs. Wine producing vs. this project
It is important to distinguish winemaking and production from grape growing and vineyard management. Winemaking and production can first be described as, determining a site for a vineyard. A regions relative climate, topography and soil characteristics must all be considered, maintaining these specifications are applicable to the grape variety the winemaker wishes to produce (Lewis et. al., 2008). Additionally, considerations of having a south facing slope, suggested distances between vine stands, suggested acreages ensuring profitability, pesticide use including type, effectiveness and timing of application are also winemaking and production activities. Though these activities may directly influence a vineyard; grape growing refers to the process of crop management.
Vineyard management, in simple terms, is the ongoing process of maintaining and observing crop health while intervening in terms of pruning, irrigation and pesticide application, including many other practices. Winemaking and grape growing are very much related but are also separate from one another and must often collaborate to produce effective management and production strategies. This project focuses on grape growing related to vineyard management in terms of disease management associated with climate trends.
Unique grapes, science, wine technology
Grape production, grapes develop differently than others in differnet regions
Winter hardy
Disease sucesptible
L’Acadie Grape variety
Continued research on Nova grape winter hardy varieties
As mentioned the particular climate of a region is very important when considering a grape variety to grow (Lewis et. al., 2008; AgraPoint, 2009 and WANS 2011). This is because each grape variety will develop differently than one another depending on a number of different factors, as briefly mentioned, soil characteristics, total heat accumulation and vineyard design including others will affect the overall quality of the grape and the yield of the vine. Nova Scotia’s unique and diverse climate allows European grapes to grow rather successfully (Lewis et. al., 2008). This grape variety is called vinifera, as coming from Europe, oppose to labruscana from America. The vinifera grape variety entirely belongs to the species, vitis, which refers to the attributes of the grape (AgraPoint, 2009). Characteristically, vitis vinifera is a high quality grape variety though is not winter hardy and disease susceptible, meaning it is prone to stress under certain conditions (Kittilsen, 2008 and AgraPoint, 2009). Moreover, the labruscana does not produce a quality grape compared to vitis vinifera, though it is more winter hardy and disease resistant.
Hybrid wines, on the other hand, combine the attributes of the labruscana, winter hardy and disease resistant, with the first class quality of European vinifera types (Kittilsen, 2008) and are the most widely grown variety in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia’s distinctly cool climate, rich soils and microclimate regions provides a unique growing season for these grape varieties. Table 1 below describes the “recommended grape varieties for Nova Scotia” compiled by AgraPoint International Inc.
The Kentville Research Station is working to breed winter hardy varieties that will make good quality wines. One such line is KW94-1, a high yielding, winter hardy white wine grape that looks very promising. This grape provides a strong acidity base.
Synthesized table of nova wine stakeholders,
This provides ecellent information for new grape growers, prospect grape, growers, and new insights for existing grape growers.
As mentioned the particular climate of a region is very important when considering a grape variety to grow (Lewis et. al., 2008; AgraPoint, 2009 and WANS 2011). This is because each grape variety will develop differently than one another depending on a number of different factors, as briefly mentioned, soil characteristics, total heat accumulation and vineyard design including others will affect the overall quality of the grape and the yield of the vine. Nova Scotia’s unique and diverse climate allows European grapes to grow rather successfully (Lewis et. al., 2008). This grape variety is called vinifera, as coming from Europe, oppose to labruscana from America. The vinifera grape variety entirely belongs to the species, vitis, which refers to the attributes of the grape (AgraPoint, 2009). Characteristically, vitis vinifera is a high quality grape variety though is not winter hardy and disease susceptible, meaning it is prone to stress under certain conditions (Kittilsen, 2008 and AgraPoint, 2009). Moreover, the labruscana does not produce a quality grape compared to vitis vinifera, though it is more winter hardy and disease resistant.
This table will help to relate a specific disease to a particular grape variety.
Hybrid wines, on the other hand, combine the attributes of the labruscana, winter hardy and disease resistant, with the first class quality of European vinifera types (Kittilsen, 2008) and are the most widely grown variety in Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia’s distinctly cool climate, rich soils and microclimate regions provides a unique growing season for these grape varieties. Table 1 below describes the “recommended grape varieties for Nova Scotia” compiled by AgraPoint International Inc.
The Kentville Research Station is working to breed winter hardy varieties that will make good quality wines. One such line is KW94-1, a high yielding, winter hardy white wine grape that looks very promising. This grape provides a strong acidity base.
Though,
As mentioned certain weather conditions produce stressful exposure to disease development. Common diseases across Canada and mores pecifically in Nova Scotia ….
These parameters have been determined from Carisse et. al
There is an important relationship between quality of the grape, often measured in sugar content or brix, and yield of the vines (Kittilsen, 2008). As grape vines become stressed, caused by weather related fluctuations, the extent of the damage must be determined to ensure the amount of yield achievable will be appropriate to attain the desired brix. Moreover, it can be said to increase the sugar content the yield must be reduced (Kittilsen, 2008).
The level of damage that can occur can vary between, the specific grape variety, the current, recent and historical health of the vine, soil characteristics and pesticide strategies. Additionally, the quality of a grape is highly influenced by weather trends in terms of growing days, degree-days, frost-free days, and minimum and maximum winter temperatures (Lewis et. al., 2008). Considering these weather trend analysis we can determine historical trends and correlate them to the resulting wine quality.
Downy mildew
Powdery mildew
Anthracanose
Grey mold
Black rot
Crown gall
Min and max
Optimal
Seasonal risk***
FFP
Min and max
Moisture risk
Here’s how suitability mapping is done. Do all of these measurements, rank them on a scale of 1-? And calculate totals for each stations.
But this is a point based analysis.
This information will be used accordingly to populate criteria values. For instance, daily data will be used for obtaining the minimum and maximum daily temperature values. Whereas, hourly data will be used to determine how long a particular parameter such as, optimal temperature and wetness duration was occurring. If for example, the optimal temperature range and precipitation parameters were held relevant to the time of duration for infection, then that value would be accepted at a certain level of suitability. The closer or more precise each parameter is to the established criteria the lower the suitability rank will be. Thus, a high suitability will be representative of locations that have weather parameters most favourable to areas of low susceptibility. Unfortunately, access to hourly data was limited and therefore could not be incorporated into the model.
As mentioned, there are a few concerns regarding the provided data sets and the criteria that have been established. The duration for infection parameter indicates that under certain conditions it will take a certain amount of time for a disease to develop and infect a grape. However, similar to how grape vines have different stages of growth; diseases also have stages of development, sporulation, and infection. Additionally, for some diseases such as crown gall, this can exist within soil systems up to 5 years following an infestation. Though, other diseases may recede and ultimately die off under unfavourable weather conditions for its particular survival. This duration parameter is very difficult to determine because of the lack of knowledge which can accurately predict timing factors related to disease development. Moreover, it can very difficult to collect data with a high enough accuracy to perform an assessment of these criteria.
After reviewing the research an established set of criteria will be used for the model. As discussed growing days, frost-free days and winter minimums are grape vine stress indicators. The following figure illustrates the most suitable to least suitable desires for these temperature considerations.
After reviewing the research concerning soil characteristics in Nova Scotia, internal drainage and potential rooting depth are important considerations (Kittilsen, 2008 & Lewis et. al., 2010). Though, internal drainage is linked to many other characteristics such as soil type, density, coarseness, etc. As mentioned, soil is one criterion a vineyard manager can modify, by changing the soil, adding more depth or more or less base. However, this can be cost expensive, which is why a naturally well drained soil is more favourable. The potential rooting depth is also an important consideration which will determine the longevity of the vine stock. Also, some soils are characteristically suited for agricultural purposes providing ideal conditions for growth. Using a provided soil vector layer, the following table illustrates the relative ranking scheme soil suitability. Unfortunately, this ranking system was derived from background research relative to soil types, meaning certain soil types generally have a particular depth, drainage and capability.
Suitability scores for disease models must be derived by the time it takes for diseases to develop. Again this exposure time can be different depending on the grape and the disease. Moreover, disease models should score moderate suitabilities for stations that meet the observed exposure time which causes disease development. High would indicate that infection rates are increased at these locations, whereas least indicates infection rates will be at a minimum.
The goal of this project was to provide suitability scores for each station in terms of their relative GDD at 5, GDD at 10, frost-free period, winter minimum, downy mildew, powdery mildew, black rot and soil. This was not achieved because of data limitations which inhibited the models ability to accurately estimate or generate suitability scores. Therefore, suitability scores for frost-free period, and the disease models, downy mildew, powdery mildew and black rot were not included in the tables. Though, considering the model that was performed, some interesting observations can be made.
The tables below show the calculated values for all stations and years including the relative suitability scores. However, since this project did not achieve an accurate model for producing the desired results, certain suitability scores have been left blank. This project recognizes that filling in these scores would be misrepresentative of suitability mapping. Rather the tables should be reviewed for interesting results; which they show.
Coastal stations have significantly lower temperatures than inland stations. However, there are also some coastal stations which do not comply with this trend. This station is found in Annapolis Royal where the topographical landscape protects the area from cool winds off of the Bay.
The goals of this project were to develop a GIS model for determining the suitability of a particular location with respect grape crops and their potential health and potential for developing a disease. Unfortunately, because of data limitations this was not achievable. However, some interesting insights and considerations for future models can certainly be made.
As mentioned it is understood that grapes thrive off of high growing temperatures. Yet, also understood grapes under certain weather conditions can develop diseases. Thus, a year of good growing temperatures does not necessarily indicate a good year, if the crop has been under stress. This is why an accurate model is needed in order to investigate areas where preferred weather conditions and weather trends occur oppose to undesirable trends. Undesirable trends indicate that these areas have trends which have a high potential for disease development.
Since a disease development model requires certain weather data, the model should also consider other measurements as shown in this project. Rather than measuring only the potential risk, using the same data, the model can incorporate potential health or quality of a grape, which leads to the next suggested point.
This project set out to develop model which would incorporate specific Nova Scotia grape varieties in order to relate weather station results to the susceptibility of a grape to a particular disease. This would be highly beneficial to grape growers as it would further highlight areas which are more preferred for specific grapes.
The data must be able to meet the model, so to speak. The model needs relative humidity for measuring diseases. Therefore, it requires rain gauges. The stations with missing rain gauges, for the scope of this project cannot be interpolated or estimated at a high enough accuracy. The model requires actual data to ensure the results will be reflective of the actual conditions. Fortunately, the AGRG is implementing improvements to the existing weather stations. These improvements include replacing the current temperature gauge with a gauge which records both temperature and relative humidity. Additionally, they will be adding precipitation sensors to the existing stations also including wind speed and direction sensors. These improvements are essential for continued research focusing on the agricultural
The DMCast model provided some interesting considerations. Perhaps the model should be developed first for a particular disease on a specific grape variety. This would allow the stages of crop and disease development to be observed which plays an important factor in determining the potential for disease development. These models however, require accurate timing intervals, in order to measure small changes over time. For instance, disease development can occur is moisture, dew, wetness or rainfall however, depending on other weather conditions and the duration of certain conditions, the development of a particular stage of disease may or may not occur.