Presentation delivered by Felipe de Javier Pena Duenas (CANIMOLT and CONAGO, Mexico) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico. http://www.borlaug100.org

2. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
CHALLENGE: TO FEED 8 BILLION PEOPLE IN 2025
5.3 5.7 6.1 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
BILLIONS OF PEOPLE
22%
78%
1990
Less developed
More developed 16%
84%
2025
Fuente: ONU.
REGIONS:
2

3. • THE HIGHER THE INCOME (Q5)
THE INTAKE OF ANIMAL
PROTEIN AND SUGARS
INCREASES, WHILE CEREAL
INTAKE DECREASES.
• THE LESSER THE INCOME (Q1)
THE INTAKE OF CEREAL
INCREASES.
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
CEREALS IN ALIMENTATION
Source: FAO.
3
Proportion of food groups in the total supply of dietary energy
OTHER
SUGARS
FATS AND OILS
FOODS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN
FRUITS
VEGETABLES
ROOTS AND TUBERS
CEREALSSaharan AfricaAsia Latin America and the
Caribbean
North Africa

4. Source: CANIMOLT with data from OMS, USDA and the World Bank
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400 KG/PERSON
Obese population (%)
over 20 years old
17%
17%
17% 34% 21%
20%
2%
17% 6%
36%
32%
6%
2% 33% 19%
33%
$153
$198
$80 $125 $302
$234
$44
$80
$10
$659
$8,233
$219
$51
$631
$990
$603
Total expenditure on
health, per capita (USD)
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
WHEAT CONSUMPTION AND HEALTH EXPENDITURE
4

5. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
AREA HARVESTED AND GRAIN YIELD
5
333
352
225 232
163 165
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2014 2022
AREA HARVESTED (million ha)
COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE
*Coarse grains: Corn, sorghum and millet, among others.
Source: FAO.
3.7
4.0
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
2014 2022
YIELD (ton/ha)
COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE

6. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA CEREAL
6
1,233
1,407
712
784
500
549
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2014 2022
PRODUCTION (million tonnes)
COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE
32
35
66 68
58 59
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2014 2022
PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
(kg / person)
COARSE GRAINS WHEAT RICE
*Coarse grains: corn, sorghum and millet.
Source: FAO.

7. 120
140
160
180
200
220
240
AREA (MILL. OF HAS)
Corn Wheat
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
PLANTED AREA AND YIELD OF CORN AND WHEAT
Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data.
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
YIELD (TON/HAS)
Corn Wheat
7

8. Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data (August 2013).
PRODUCTION:
655 MT
CONSUMPTION:
687 MT
IMPORT:
145 MT
EXPORT:
139 MT
1) EU
133 MT
4) USA
62 MT
2) CHINA
121 MT
5) RUSSIA
38 MT
3) INDIA
95 MT
21) MEXICO
3 MT
1) CHINA
125 MT
2) EU
121 MT
3) INDIA
84 MT
4) USA
38 MT
5) RUSSIA
34 MT
1) EGYPT
8 MT17) MEXICO
7 MT
2) BRAZIL
7 MT
3) INDONESIA
7 MT
4) JAPAN 7
MT
5) ALGERIA
6 MT
11) MEXICO
4 MT
1) USA
27 MT
2) EU
22 MT
3) AUSTRALIA
19 MT
4) CANADA
19 MT
5) RUSSIA
11 MT
16) MEXICO
1 MT
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
WHEAT MARKET IN 2013
6

9. PRODUCTION :
785 MT (+20%)
CONSUMPTION:
782 MT (+14%)
IMPORT :
150 MT (+3%)
EXPORT:
150 MT (+8%)
UE
+149 MT
USA
-57 MT
CHINA
+127 MT
RUSSIA
+66 MT
INDIA
+112 MT
MEXICO
+4 MT
CHINA
+129 MT
UE
+136 MT
INDIA
+109 MT
USA
-36 MT
RUSSIA
+45 MT
EGYPT
+13 MTMEXICO
-6 MT
BRAZIL
+8 MT
INDONESIA
7 MT
JAPAN
-5 MT
ALGERIA
6 MT
MEXICO
-3 MT
USA
-24 MT
UE
-18 MT
AUSTRALIA
-17 MT
CANADA
+21 MT
RUSSIA
+21 MT
MEXICO
1 MT
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
WHEAT MARKET IN 2022
6
Source: CANIMOLT, with OCDE-FAO data.

10. 100
120
140
160
180
200
220
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014e 2021/2022e
MILLION TONS
Consumption Production Stock
STOCKCONSUMPTION
AND PRODUCTION
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
WHEAT PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK
Source: CANIMOLT, with USDA data (August 2013) and of FAO.
10

11. 23%
26%
25%
22%
21%
27%
31%
30%
29%
26%
27%
26%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 21/22
Price HRW Price SRW Stock/consumption (%)
INTERNATIONAL
PRICE
(USD/TON)
STOCK/
INTAKE (%)
MEAN
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
RELATION OF WHEAT STOCK VS WHEAT PRICE
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA (August 2013).
11

12. 55%
7%
68%
102%
66%
91%
4%
95%
26%
13%
66%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Egypt China Brazil Indonesia Algeria Japan EU-27 South
Korea
Iran USA Mexico
2012/2013 2013/2014 Import/Consumption (%)
Import
(millions of tons)
Importation/Consump
tion (%)
FOOD
SECURITY
Just China, EU, USA have food SECURITY
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA.
WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
WHEAT IMPORTERS AND WHEAT FOOD SECURITY
12

13. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF DURUM WHEAT (PASTA)
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from IGC.
13

14. WORLD SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
PRODUCTION BY VARIETY OF WHEAT
AND CONSUMPTION IN DESTINY
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from OECD-FAO and the IGC.
HARD AND
SOFT
(BACKERY)
95%
DURUM
(PASTA)
5%
PRODUCTION 2013/2014: 713 MT
HUMAN 68%
ANIMAL
FEED 20%
OTHER
12%
CONSUMPTION 2013/2014: 698 MT
36 MT677 MT
14

15. 88 milling plants
Installed capacity: 8.4 MT
Wheat consumption: 6.2 MT
Flour and semolina production: 4.7 MT
Northeast: 13%
North: 13%
Center-West: 23%
Metropolitan area: 33%
South-southeast: 18%
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
REQUIREMENTS OF THE MILLING INDUSTRY 2013
Source: CANIMOLT.
15
CONCEPT 2013
M. TON
National Production 3.5
Imports 4.2
TOTAL 7.7
Exports (durum) 0.7
Feed 0.7
MILLING INDUSTRY 6.2

16. CHIHSON
BC
JAL GTO
MICH
BC
SON
BREADMAKING WHEATS: 1.3 MT
(38% prod. Nac):
Hard and medium 0.8 MT
Soft 0.5 MT
DURUM WHEAT (pasta): 2.2 MT
(62% domestic prod. ):
Cristalino or Durum
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
MÉXICO PRODUCES 56% OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF INDUSTRY
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from SIAP.
16
TOTAL PRODUCTION: 3.5 MT

17. USA,
71%
CANADA
, 24%
RUSSIA,
4%
FRANCE,
1%
TOTAL IMPORT: 4.2 MT
• USA: 2.9 MT
• Canada: 1.0 MT
• Russia: 0.2 MT
• France: 0.03 MT
ND
AB
SK
MB
TX
OK
KS
NC
IL
MO
ID
WA
OR
INTERNATIONAL BASE:
• Freight to elevators
• International freight
• Internment costs
• Freight to milling plant
SHIP
72%
TRAIN
28%
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
MEXICO IMPORTS 44% OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE MILLING
INDUSTRY
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from Customs-SAT.
17

18. BREADMAKING BREADS
High protein
Hard Red Spring (HRS)
Canada Western Hard
Red Spring (CWHRS)
Medium protein
Hard Red Winter (HRW)
Soft
Soft Red Winter (SRW)
Soft White (SW)
ND
AB
SK
MB
TX
OK
KS
NC
IL
MO
ID
WA
OR
IMPORT: 4.2 MT
• Hard Red Spring: 1.4 MT
• Soft Red Winter 1.4 MT
• Canada Western Hard Red Spring : 1.0 MT
• Soft White: 0.03 MT
• Hard Red Spring: 0.1 MT
• Others: 0.2 MT
Other
3%
HRS
3%
SW
1%
CWHRS
24%
SRW
33%
HRW
33%
MT MN
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
REQUIRED QUALITY BY THE MILLING INDUSTRY
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from USDA.
18

19. BREADMAKING
5.5 MT (89%):
• High protein
• Medium protein
• Soft
PASTA 0.8 MT (11%):
• Cristalino or Durum
HIGH AND MEDIUM
PROTEIN
SOFT
CRISTALINO OR DURUM
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
CONSUMPTION OF WHEAT BASED PRODUCTS
19
Source: CANIMOLT.
TOTAL MILLING
CONSUMPTION
2013: 6.2 MT

20. 49%
40%
5%
6%
Corn
products
Wheat
products
Rice
Other
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING ON CEREALS
20
Source: INEGI.

21. 42%
7%
15%
7%
5%
4%
4%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Corn tortilla
Corn, flour, dough,…
Sweet bread
White bread
Cookies
Sliced bread
Noodles spaghetti…
Flour tortilla
Cakes and pastries
Wheat flour
Other wheat products
Source: INEGI.
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
HOUSEHOLD SPENDING IN CORN AND WHEAT PRODUCTS
21

22. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED PRODUCTS OF WHEAT
20
Source: INEGI.
2,834
2,919
3,054
3,2113,224
3,287
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
3,000
3,100
3,200
3,300
3,400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FLOUR
(Thousands de Tons)
144
169
185 179
203
191
-
50
100
150
200
250
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SEMOLINA
(Thousands of Tons)

23. 784
759
809
821
846
853
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BREAD AND PASTRIES
(Thousands of tons)
707 706 726 762 790 769
99 92 115
117 104 97
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
COOKIES
(Thousands of tons)
SWEET SALTED
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED WHEAT PRODUCTS
21
Source: INEGI.

24. 304
317
327
334
347
337
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
SPAGHETTI AND PASTA
(Thousands de Tons)
96
99
113
122
129
126
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FLOUR TORTILLA
(Thousands of Tons)
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
SALES OF INDUSTRIALIZED WHEAT PRODUCTS
22
Source: INEGI.

25. 3.7 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
3.5 3.7
4.2
4.8
5.6
0.44 0.25 0.08
6.8
7.4
8.0
8.7
9.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
2010* 2015 2020 2025 2030
Milliontons
PRODUCTION IMPORTS EXPORTS CONSUMPTION
Deficit
5.6 MT
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
FUTURE NEEDS OF WHEAT IN THE INDUSTRY
25
Source: CANIMOLT, with data from con SIAP and Customs- SAT.

26. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
STRATEGY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE WHEAT PRODUCTION CHAIN
26
1) Increase
in Production
2) Varietal
Outline
4)
Consumption
Patterns
3) Comercial/
Productive
Model
Increase domestic production to
achieve the level of
food security in the
production chain
Defining the schema development,
management and delivery of
appropriate wheat varieties, based
on the needs of the production and
consumption
Design and development of
production models and efficient
comercialization of wheat in
Mexico
Increase per capita
consumption of wheat
products, and explore
new market niches
Source: CANIMOLT.

27. MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
THE CHALLENGE
27
Imports 68% of the needs
Domestic production is
only 20% of the
requirements of
breadmaking wheats
2030 to have a deficit 5.6
million tons
Myths about the
nutritional values ​​of
wheat, obesity and
effects of gluten.

28. INCREASE DOMESTIC
PRODUCTION OF BREADMAKING
WHEATS
CONSOLIDATE THE WHEAT AS THE
BASIS OF A HEALTHY DIET
MEXICO SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
CHALLENGE TO 2025
28