This presentation focuses on the complex influences on farmers in West Africa, the major challenges for them, scenarios for the future and shows some recommendations.

1. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly:
Climate Change's Potential
Impact on Farmers in West Africa
A. Jalloh, M. D. Faye, H. Roy-Macauley, P. Sereme, R. Zougmore, G. C.
Nelson, T. S. Thomas, K. Ahossane, P.B. Irenikatche Akponikpe, S. Conde,
A. Danguioua, S. Hassan, C.E. Ikuenobe, R.G. Johnson, M. Kandeh, B. S.
Karmorh, M. Khouma, A. E. Lawin, D. M. d’Croz, D. K. Nutsukpo, A.
Palazzo, R. Robertson, L. Some, A. Tchinguilou, H. Yaye

2. Natural Resource Endowment in WA
10.3 % exploited in
West Africa
Arable Land 236 million ha
10 % developed
Irrigable Land 8.9 million ha
Significant
pastoral and
fisheries resources
However, West
African
economies are
especially
vulnerable to
climate change
as a result of
their heavy
dependence on
rainfed
agriculture.

3. Socio economic overview of West Africa
Population in 2010 was about 290 million.
Agricultural sector employs 60 % of the
active labor force contributing 35 % of GDP.
In 2008, per capita GDP ranged from
US$128 in Guinea-Bissau to more than
US$1,500 in Cape Verde, with all other
countries having less than US$ 500
•Vegetation and Land use
•Under-five mortality is between
100 and 200/1000.
An average of about 70–80 percent of the
population lives on less than US$2 per day
Rainfall
Temperature
• The majority of the countries have
a life expectancy of between 50 and
60 years.

4. Major challenge
• A major challenge is increasing agricultural
production among resource-poor farmers
without exacerbating environmental
problems and simultaneously coping with
climate change.

5. Scenarios for the future

6. Population and income
1. A significant increase in the population of all countries except
Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more
than double except Cape Verde
2. Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from
US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire.
3. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the
pessimistic scenario.

7. Rainfall
Despite variations among models, there is a clear indication of:
1.changes in precipitation with either a reduction in the heavy-rainfall
areas, particularly along the coast,
2.or an increase in areas of the Sahel hitherto devoid of much rain.
3.Southern parts of Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria will be dryer
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000–2050,
CSIRO, A1B (mm)
MIROC, A1B (mm)

8. Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop
model: CSIRO A1B
MIROC A1B
Maize
Groundnut
Sorghum

9. Regional/landscape implications
Coastal West Africa
Sahelian region
Drought and floods could affect productivity and
even threaten the existence of plants and animals
along the coast and the Sahel, respectively
Spread of malaria and trypanosomiases in hitherto
dry areas in the Sahel
Heavy rains could pose a serious challenge to
unpaved feeder roads vital for transport of inputs to
farming areas and produce to market
Farmers and pastoralists may have to contend with new farming
cultures including land tenure and changing food habits

10. Regional Agricultural Outcomes
•
World market prices for maize, rice, sorghum, and
wheat predicted to increase in all scenarios, while the
price of millet will be less in 2050 than in 2010.
•
The area under cultivation of both millet and sorghum
will increase, while the area under cultivation of maize
will decrease. Production of maize, millet and
sorghum is predicted to increase by 2050.
•
In the optimistic scenario, the number of
malnourished children decreases for all the countries
except Niger. In the pessimistic scenario, the number
increases in all countries except Guinea Bissau and
Senegal

11. Recommendations
• Available and accessible weather data – AGRHYMET
• Capacity building in climate science and need for
targeted research for climate smart technologies.
• Harmonized use of rivers for irrigation and electricity
• Conservation of natural resources, particularly forests,
and the development of parks.
• Sustained economic integration (common currency and
trade policies)
• Reliable trunk and feeder roads for free movement of
goods and people throughout the region.
• Effective linkage and dialogue between researchers and
policy makers.

12. THANK YOU – MERCI
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