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Aaron J.M. Russell, Joost Foppes, Sounthone Ketphanh
(a.russell@cgiar.org)
14th IASC Conference, Kitafuji, Japan (Jun.4, 2013)
Using Forests to Enhance Resilience to Climate Change “ForCC”
Impacts of forest commons and agro-forestry concessions on
household resilience in Southern Laos
TFESSD
Laos - overview
• Landlocked nation
in SE Asia
• 41.5% forest cover
• High importance of
NTFPs
• Development focus
on FDI & land use
intensification
Forestry policy context
7th Nat. Socio-Economic Devt. Plan (2011-2015)
• National 8% economic growth annually
• Reduce poverty to 19% of pop. and 11% of households
by 2015
• Foreign investment in land: $8-8.75 billion 2011-2015,
• Establish 500,000ha tree plantations by 2020
Forestry Strategy 2020
• Restore “forest” cover to 65% by 2015, 70% by 2020
“Participatory” Forest Management (PFM)
 Relatively new, many challenges, limited resources
 Dry dipterocarp forests (DDF) largely excluded
The land grab in Laos
Land grab in 2000’s (Heinimann and Messerli 2012):
• 2600 land deals in Laos that cover 1.1 million ha (5%
of the nation’s land)
• FDI dominates (> 72%) the land leases granted (esp.
Vietnam, China and Thailand)
• 1990s – primarily in Northern Laos
• Late 2000’s acceleration in Savannakhet due to the
“East-West Economic Corridor”
DD Forests vs concessions on Lao PDR
DDF village
Sugarcane village
Eucalyptus village
DD Forests in Lao PDR
Impact of forest commons and agro-forestry concessions on household resilience in Southern Laos
forests’ invisible actors and values
1. How will climate change impact
on livelihood resilience?
2. How do DD forests contribute to
resilience of communities?
3. What are the impacts of DD
forest conversion to sugar cane
and eucalyptus plantations on
resilience?
Q. How do forests enhance resilience of the
agricultural sector to climate change?
Projecting scenarios on impacts of
climate change and land-use change
Baseline
DD Forest – NTFP
& rice
Commercial
agrictulture
Tree cropping
Present
Climate
1st CC/LUC
Scenario
2nd CC/LUC
Scenario
Forest Governance/Land Use Alternatives
ClimateScenarios
Baseline Baseline
1. Participatory Rapid Appraisal
(PROFOR Poverty-Forests Toolkit)
• List/rank sources of cash/non-
cash income by land category
• 6 focus groups per village (3
wealth classes, 2 gender)
2. Household socioeconomic survey
(strat. random sample)
• 3 wealth classes x 4 HH
3. District, province stakeholder
validation workshops
Research Methods – in 3 villages
Forest area available per household
Cash income disparities
Household Cash Income poor middle rich average
SUFORD village (kip) 1,041,750 2,062,250 8,430,000 3,873,833
Eucalyptus village (kip) 3,842,500 7,037,500 13,476,500 8,118,833
Sugarcane village (kip) 4,302,000 5,343,500 10,157,500 8,077,000
average (kip) 3,062,083 4,814,417 10,688,000 6,689,889
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
PSFM Eucalyptus Sugarcane
cashincome(kip)
HH Cash Income between 3 villages
Questioning the myth of the forests-
poverty nexus
Average Household
Income DDF village
Eucalyptus
village
Sugarcane
village
Avg
cash income 3,873,833 8,118,833 8,234,500 6,689,889
non-cash income 8,234,500 5,769,125 4,323,958 5,607,861
total hh income 12,108,333 13,887,958 12,558,458 12,297,750
US$ equivalent $ 1,514 $ 1,736 $ 1,570 $ 1,537
% non-cash 32% 58% 66% 54%
% from forest 38% 26% 38% 35%
costs/benefits for whom?
will we lose nutritional diversity?
Higher NTFP consumption by 1)middle,
2) poor wealth classes…
Village Wealth group
Area of forest
(ha/capita)
Consumption of wild foods
(kip/capita) ($/capita)
PSFM
poor 2.59 198,000 $ 24.75
middle 2.56 510,581 $ 63.82
wealthy 2.45 40,122 $ 5.02
Eucalyptus
poor 0.81 171,429 $ 21.43
middle 1.02 495,262 $ 61.91
wealthy 1.08 219,769 $ 27.47
Sugarcane
poor 0.19 264,568 $ 33.07
middle 0.20 181,232 $ 22.65
wealthy 0.36 101,667 $ 12.71
Average 1.05 238,988 $ 29.87
…and annual consumption between villages similar
(excl. seasonality effects)
High rice consumption among wealthy in
concession villages, and most have enough…
Village Actual Norm Rice
consumption paddy rice balance to norm
kg/capita kg/capita kg/capita
poor 0.36 319 350 -31
middle 0.37 332 350 -18
wealthy 0.17 360 350 10
poor 0.53 360 350 10
middle 0.32 297 350 -53
wealthy 0.79 558 350 208
poor 0.70 322 350 -28
middle 0.29 290 350 -60
wealthy 0.38 596 350 246
0.44 404 350 54Average
Wealth
group
Area of
rice
paddy
PSFM
Eucalyptus
Sugarcane
…again, seasonal shortages are a concern
Livestock for resilience to shocks
Livestock assets as a measure of
resilience to shocks…
HH Livestock assets/Annual cash income poor middle rich Avg
SUFORD village 143% 334% 396% 359%
Eucalyptus village 96% 110% 128% 96%
Sugarcane village 2% 114% 168% 118%
Household Cash Resilience (years) poor middle rich Avg
DDF village 1.4 3.3 4.0 3.6
Eucalyptus village 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0
Sugarcane village <0.1 1.1 1.7 1.2
…poorest forced to sell livestock first.
(Current livestock far above carrying capacity in
concession villages)
TFESSDintact forests keep communities together and reduce
outmigration
Labor contribution to household income
greatest in concessions
All Income Sources DDF Eucalyptus Sugarcane ALL
Income from Forest 38% 38% 26% 35%
NTFP/wood sales 2% 2% 5% 3%
→livestock sales 19% 21% 11% 18%
→NTFP non-cash 16% 15% 10% 14%
Other Income 62% 62% 74% 65%
→labor income 8% 29% 33% 25%
→remittances 1% 5% 13% 7%
agriculture sales 1% 1% 1% 1%
→Rice consumed 38% 25% 22% 29%
→Other crops consumed 14% 3% 6% 3%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
Lessons learned on concession economics
assessment of benefits from different concession models
Sugar cane seems to be a high risk
investment in DDF areas…
…not clear which is primary source of challenge.
Little employment in eucalyptus
 Eucalyptus plantation company
declined interview
 About 30 persons were
employed out of 246 labor
forces available in 85
households (12%)
 Company only needs this labor
3 months per year
 Compensation is 20-25,000 kip
per day, without lunch
 This is lower than local labor
rate (30,000 kip/day)
 Most household labor income
derived outside the concessions
Lessons learned on economics of large
scale concessions
 Bad soils in DDF make sugarcane and eucalyptus
uncertain investments
 Poor documentation, data availability, government
oversight heighten conflicts
 Employment offered by concessions is seasonal
and insufficient for everybody
 Privatization of remaining DDF out of fear may
be lost to concession claim.
 Little forest left for communal use.
forest loss results in tragedy of remaining commons
Tentative conclusions regarding
HH resilience
 The forest community relies most on non-cash
whereas concession communities rely most on
cash income, but overall incomes are close
(counter to poverty-environment nexus theories)
 All communities and wealth classes rely
significantly on forests for non-/cash income
(confirms expectations).
 Rice consumption appears adequate everywhere
with excess in the concession villages (??), but
very different yields.
 Highest NTFP consumption among middle wealth
group in more forested communities (sampling?
Literacy/numeracy?).
Tentative conclusions regarding
HH resilience
 Concession communities report shortages in
seasonal availability of forest products:
• negative impacts on dietary diversity and
household cash needs – but have similar levels
of forest produce consumption
(overall pessimism due to loss of commons vs??)
 The poor in concession communities rely most on
migrant and day labor income (not surprising).
 Forests provide significant buffer for major shocks
to all in forested communities, wealthy in
sugarcane concession through livestock (more
significant than expected, but how to model?).
ignorant communities and poor legal institutions contribute
to conflict and vulnerability.
Poor coordination and data sharing limits planning
Priority questions for policy
makers/planners
 How much paddy land should be allocated per household or
per capita to ensure future food self-sufficiency?
 How much DDF forest should be preserved per household or
per capita to allow for a minimum buffer to shocks?
 What criteria could be applied to ensure that companies can
demonstrate the viability of concessions?
 Where concessions are allocated what amount and form of
compensation would assist communities in replacing the lost
forest benefits?
 What institutional monitoring and arbitration/adjudication
mechanisms are needed to safeguard the interests of local
stakeholders and the state?
 Lacking any of the above, how does the government plan to
address demand for employment as rural livelihoods are
undermined?
TFESSD
• Agricultural intensification on
land already under cultivation is
essential (require improved
practices, services, infrastructur
e and research).
• Forests critical in supporting
sustainable agricultural
livelihoods.
• Increases in crop yields alone
will not protect forests, active
stakeholder engagement is key.
• Poor
transparency/coordination, moni
toring, adjudication by govt
institutions regarding concession
allocation = tragedy in forests.
• A “landscape approach” is
particularly promising
Conclusions
Annual DDF Ecosystem services values
Dry Forest Ecosystem Services Annual returns kip/ha $/ha
Livestock sales 88,214 $ 11.03
NTFP sales and consumption 33,510 $ 4.19
Timber for house construction 24,000 $ 3.00
Firewood consumption 8,706 $ 1.09
Domestic water use 10,857 $ 1.36
Total value provisioning services 165,288 $ 20.66
Erosion control (25 % of rice production) 210,455 $ 26.31
Total value regulatory services 210,455 $ 26.31
Actual contribution to HH income 375,743 $ 46.97
Potential from timber sales (110 -yr cycle) 55,273 $ 6.91
Potential annual carbon value 28,435 $ 3.55
Total option values 83,708 $ 10.46
Overall potential value 459,451 $ 57.43
Village participatory land use planning
map – DDF village
Impact of forest commons and agro-forestry concessions on household resilience in Southern Laos

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Impact of forest commons and agro-forestry concessions on household resilience in Southern Laos

  • 1. Aaron J.M. Russell, Joost Foppes, Sounthone Ketphanh (a.russell@cgiar.org) 14th IASC Conference, Kitafuji, Japan (Jun.4, 2013) Using Forests to Enhance Resilience to Climate Change “ForCC” Impacts of forest commons and agro-forestry concessions on household resilience in Southern Laos TFESSD
  • 2. Laos - overview • Landlocked nation in SE Asia • 41.5% forest cover • High importance of NTFPs • Development focus on FDI & land use intensification
  • 3. Forestry policy context 7th Nat. Socio-Economic Devt. Plan (2011-2015) • National 8% economic growth annually • Reduce poverty to 19% of pop. and 11% of households by 2015 • Foreign investment in land: $8-8.75 billion 2011-2015, • Establish 500,000ha tree plantations by 2020 Forestry Strategy 2020 • Restore “forest” cover to 65% by 2015, 70% by 2020 “Participatory” Forest Management (PFM)  Relatively new, many challenges, limited resources  Dry dipterocarp forests (DDF) largely excluded
  • 4. The land grab in Laos Land grab in 2000’s (Heinimann and Messerli 2012): • 2600 land deals in Laos that cover 1.1 million ha (5% of the nation’s land) • FDI dominates (> 72%) the land leases granted (esp. Vietnam, China and Thailand) • 1990s – primarily in Northern Laos • Late 2000’s acceleration in Savannakhet due to the “East-West Economic Corridor”
  • 5. DD Forests vs concessions on Lao PDR DDF village Sugarcane village Eucalyptus village
  • 6. DD Forests in Lao PDR
  • 9. 1. How will climate change impact on livelihood resilience? 2. How do DD forests contribute to resilience of communities? 3. What are the impacts of DD forest conversion to sugar cane and eucalyptus plantations on resilience? Q. How do forests enhance resilience of the agricultural sector to climate change?
  • 10. Projecting scenarios on impacts of climate change and land-use change Baseline DD Forest – NTFP & rice Commercial agrictulture Tree cropping Present Climate 1st CC/LUC Scenario 2nd CC/LUC Scenario Forest Governance/Land Use Alternatives ClimateScenarios Baseline Baseline
  • 11. 1. Participatory Rapid Appraisal (PROFOR Poverty-Forests Toolkit) • List/rank sources of cash/non- cash income by land category • 6 focus groups per village (3 wealth classes, 2 gender) 2. Household socioeconomic survey (strat. random sample) • 3 wealth classes x 4 HH 3. District, province stakeholder validation workshops Research Methods – in 3 villages
  • 12. Forest area available per household
  • 13. Cash income disparities Household Cash Income poor middle rich average SUFORD village (kip) 1,041,750 2,062,250 8,430,000 3,873,833 Eucalyptus village (kip) 3,842,500 7,037,500 13,476,500 8,118,833 Sugarcane village (kip) 4,302,000 5,343,500 10,157,500 8,077,000 average (kip) 3,062,083 4,814,417 10,688,000 6,689,889 - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 PSFM Eucalyptus Sugarcane cashincome(kip) HH Cash Income between 3 villages
  • 14. Questioning the myth of the forests- poverty nexus Average Household Income DDF village Eucalyptus village Sugarcane village Avg cash income 3,873,833 8,118,833 8,234,500 6,689,889 non-cash income 8,234,500 5,769,125 4,323,958 5,607,861 total hh income 12,108,333 13,887,958 12,558,458 12,297,750 US$ equivalent $ 1,514 $ 1,736 $ 1,570 $ 1,537 % non-cash 32% 58% 66% 54% % from forest 38% 26% 38% 35%
  • 16. will we lose nutritional diversity?
  • 17. Higher NTFP consumption by 1)middle, 2) poor wealth classes… Village Wealth group Area of forest (ha/capita) Consumption of wild foods (kip/capita) ($/capita) PSFM poor 2.59 198,000 $ 24.75 middle 2.56 510,581 $ 63.82 wealthy 2.45 40,122 $ 5.02 Eucalyptus poor 0.81 171,429 $ 21.43 middle 1.02 495,262 $ 61.91 wealthy 1.08 219,769 $ 27.47 Sugarcane poor 0.19 264,568 $ 33.07 middle 0.20 181,232 $ 22.65 wealthy 0.36 101,667 $ 12.71 Average 1.05 238,988 $ 29.87 …and annual consumption between villages similar (excl. seasonality effects)
  • 18. High rice consumption among wealthy in concession villages, and most have enough… Village Actual Norm Rice consumption paddy rice balance to norm kg/capita kg/capita kg/capita poor 0.36 319 350 -31 middle 0.37 332 350 -18 wealthy 0.17 360 350 10 poor 0.53 360 350 10 middle 0.32 297 350 -53 wealthy 0.79 558 350 208 poor 0.70 322 350 -28 middle 0.29 290 350 -60 wealthy 0.38 596 350 246 0.44 404 350 54Average Wealth group Area of rice paddy PSFM Eucalyptus Sugarcane …again, seasonal shortages are a concern
  • 20. Livestock assets as a measure of resilience to shocks… HH Livestock assets/Annual cash income poor middle rich Avg SUFORD village 143% 334% 396% 359% Eucalyptus village 96% 110% 128% 96% Sugarcane village 2% 114% 168% 118% Household Cash Resilience (years) poor middle rich Avg DDF village 1.4 3.3 4.0 3.6 Eucalyptus village 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 Sugarcane village <0.1 1.1 1.7 1.2 …poorest forced to sell livestock first. (Current livestock far above carrying capacity in concession villages)
  • 21. TFESSDintact forests keep communities together and reduce outmigration
  • 22. Labor contribution to household income greatest in concessions All Income Sources DDF Eucalyptus Sugarcane ALL Income from Forest 38% 38% 26% 35% NTFP/wood sales 2% 2% 5% 3% →livestock sales 19% 21% 11% 18% →NTFP non-cash 16% 15% 10% 14% Other Income 62% 62% 74% 65% →labor income 8% 29% 33% 25% →remittances 1% 5% 13% 7% agriculture sales 1% 1% 1% 1% →Rice consumed 38% 25% 22% 29% →Other crops consumed 14% 3% 6% 3% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • 23. Lessons learned on concession economics assessment of benefits from different concession models
  • 24. Sugar cane seems to be a high risk investment in DDF areas… …not clear which is primary source of challenge.
  • 25. Little employment in eucalyptus  Eucalyptus plantation company declined interview  About 30 persons were employed out of 246 labor forces available in 85 households (12%)  Company only needs this labor 3 months per year  Compensation is 20-25,000 kip per day, without lunch  This is lower than local labor rate (30,000 kip/day)  Most household labor income derived outside the concessions
  • 26. Lessons learned on economics of large scale concessions  Bad soils in DDF make sugarcane and eucalyptus uncertain investments  Poor documentation, data availability, government oversight heighten conflicts  Employment offered by concessions is seasonal and insufficient for everybody  Privatization of remaining DDF out of fear may be lost to concession claim.  Little forest left for communal use.
  • 27. forest loss results in tragedy of remaining commons
  • 28. Tentative conclusions regarding HH resilience  The forest community relies most on non-cash whereas concession communities rely most on cash income, but overall incomes are close (counter to poverty-environment nexus theories)  All communities and wealth classes rely significantly on forests for non-/cash income (confirms expectations).  Rice consumption appears adequate everywhere with excess in the concession villages (??), but very different yields.  Highest NTFP consumption among middle wealth group in more forested communities (sampling? Literacy/numeracy?).
  • 29. Tentative conclusions regarding HH resilience  Concession communities report shortages in seasonal availability of forest products: • negative impacts on dietary diversity and household cash needs – but have similar levels of forest produce consumption (overall pessimism due to loss of commons vs??)  The poor in concession communities rely most on migrant and day labor income (not surprising).  Forests provide significant buffer for major shocks to all in forested communities, wealthy in sugarcane concession through livestock (more significant than expected, but how to model?).
  • 30. ignorant communities and poor legal institutions contribute to conflict and vulnerability.
  • 31. Poor coordination and data sharing limits planning
  • 32. Priority questions for policy makers/planners  How much paddy land should be allocated per household or per capita to ensure future food self-sufficiency?  How much DDF forest should be preserved per household or per capita to allow for a minimum buffer to shocks?  What criteria could be applied to ensure that companies can demonstrate the viability of concessions?  Where concessions are allocated what amount and form of compensation would assist communities in replacing the lost forest benefits?  What institutional monitoring and arbitration/adjudication mechanisms are needed to safeguard the interests of local stakeholders and the state?  Lacking any of the above, how does the government plan to address demand for employment as rural livelihoods are undermined?
  • 34. • Agricultural intensification on land already under cultivation is essential (require improved practices, services, infrastructur e and research). • Forests critical in supporting sustainable agricultural livelihoods. • Increases in crop yields alone will not protect forests, active stakeholder engagement is key. • Poor transparency/coordination, moni toring, adjudication by govt institutions regarding concession allocation = tragedy in forests. • A “landscape approach” is particularly promising Conclusions
  • 35. Annual DDF Ecosystem services values Dry Forest Ecosystem Services Annual returns kip/ha $/ha Livestock sales 88,214 $ 11.03 NTFP sales and consumption 33,510 $ 4.19 Timber for house construction 24,000 $ 3.00 Firewood consumption 8,706 $ 1.09 Domestic water use 10,857 $ 1.36 Total value provisioning services 165,288 $ 20.66 Erosion control (25 % of rice production) 210,455 $ 26.31 Total value regulatory services 210,455 $ 26.31 Actual contribution to HH income 375,743 $ 46.97 Potential from timber sales (110 -yr cycle) 55,273 $ 6.91 Potential annual carbon value 28,435 $ 3.55 Total option values 83,708 $ 10.46 Overall potential value 459,451 $ 57.43
  • 36. Village participatory land use planning map – DDF village