Fire is part of the natural ecological processes in tropical forests, and is also widely used as a tool in managing forests. But as the climate of the world changes and becomes hotter and climate events like droughts become more extreme, many tropical forest areas could be impacted by an increase in fire activity. In this presentation, CIFOR scientist Hety Herawati gives an overview of the interaction between climate change, wildfire and tropical forests, and gives a number of recommendations for helping both people and forests adapt to a future in which fire danger is increased. She gave this presentation at the IUFRO Conference on Forests for People held on 22-24 May 2012 in Alpbach, Austria, which was attended by approximately 200 participants from around 40 countries.

1. Adapting to Climate Change and Variability:
Tropical Forests and Wildfire
Hety Herawati- CIFOR

2. Tropical Forests
§ 44
%
of
the
world
forests
are
tropical
forests
(1.768
billion
hectares,
Grainger
2008)
§ They
are
most
species
rich
ecosystem
(Gentry
1992)
§ Produce
Fmber
and
non-­‐Fmber
products
§ Regulate
water
and
micro
climate
§ MiFgate
climate
change:
sequestering
carbon

3. Fire in the Tropics
Fire
§ has
been
part
of
ecological
process
of
forests
§ has
been
used
widely
as
a
tool
e.g.
to:
• Maintain
savanna
woodland
ecosystem
• Reduce
catastrophic
fires
• Clear
land
e.g.
for
converFng
forests
• Maintain
grassland
for
livestock
• Extract
forest
products
By Heru Santoso

4. Climate Change
§ Climate
is
changing.
IPCC
AR4:
At
the
end
of
the
21st
century,
CC
may
cause
:
• Air
temperature
increase
of
1.8
oC
(B1)
–
4.0
oC
(A1FI),
compared
to
that
in
1980-­‐1999
• PrecipitaFon
change
• Climate
extreme
events
(e.g.
hurricane
&
El
Nino)
characterisFcs
to
change

5. By Alain Compost
Climate Change and Forest Fire
Climate
change
may
affect
forest
fire
§ Directly,
e.g.
• Through
temperature,
precipitaFon,
and
natural
igniFon
changes
§ Indirectly,
e.g.
• Through
climate
induced
vegetaFon
changes

6. Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics (1)
Climate
change
may
increase
fire
acFvity,
for
example:
Global:
Overall
CC
may
cause
fire
acFvity
increase
e.g.
fire
occurrence
and
area
burned
increase
(Flannigan
et
al.
2009)
South
America
§ Fire
hazard
may
increase
in
2070-­‐2100
(Liu
et
al.
2010).
e.g.
Amazon:
• 50
%
of
the
forest
may
have
higher
fire
danger
by
2080
(Golding
and
Be_s
2008)
• may
be
more
suscepFble
to
burning
more
frequently
(Cochrane
and
Laurance
2008)
• may
experience
fire
probability
increase
in
2070-­‐2099
(Krawchuk
et
al.
2009)
Eastern
South
America:
• may
experience
fire
probability
increase
in
2070-­‐2099
(Krawchuk
et
al.
2009)
By Yayat Ruchiat

7. Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire in the Tropics (2)
Africa
§ Some
parts
of
Sudanian,
West
and
Central
,
and
Eastern
Africa
may
experience
fire
probability
increase
in
2070-­‐2099
(Krawchuk
et
al.
2009)
§ Some
parts
of
West
and
Southern
Africa
may
have
higher
fire
danger
in
2070-­‐2100
(Liu
et
al.
2010)
Asia
§ Some
parts
of
South
Asia
and
Southeast
Asia
Insular
may
experience
fire
probability
increase
in
2070-­‐2099
(Krawchuk
et
al.
2009)
e.g.
o SimulaFon
at
2
sites
in
Indonesia
shows
that
fire
hazard
may
increase
in
2070-­‐2100
(HerawaF
and
Santoso
2011)
Nevertheless,
in
spite
of
CC,
there
will
be
regions
with
no
fire
acFvity
change
and
areas
with
fire
acFvity
decreases
(Flannigan
et
al.
2009;
Krawchuk
et
al.
2009)

8. Non Climatic Drivers of Fire
§ Direct
causes,
e.g.
from
• IntenFonal
uses
of
fire
e.g.
for:
o clearing
land
o harvesFng
forest
products
• Escaped
fire
§ Indirect
causes,
e.g.
• Infrastructure
development
e.g.
road
and
se_lement
developments
• Forest
fragmentaFons
e.g.
by
logging
and
agriculture
acFviFes.
• Draining
peat
swamp
e.g.
for
oil
palm
and
Fmber
plantaFons
• Land
use
and
ownership
and
social
conflicts

9. By Patrice Levang
Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (1)
§ Be6er
land
use
planning
• E.g.
allocaFng
lands
in
or
near
forested
lands
§ Increase
forest
capacity
to
adapt
to
climate
change
and
wildfire
Climate
change
=>
addiFonal
stressors
to
forest
e.g.
unfavorable
environment
for
forests.
Forest
dieback
=>more
prone
to
fire.
• Promote
connected
landscapes
• Increase
species
redundancy
• Plant/re-­‐plant
with
mix,
less
flammable
&
more
fire
resistant
species
• Use
seed
sources
and
species
that
can
adapt
to
future
condiFons

10. Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (2)
§ Manage
fuel
availability
and
flammability
• Minimise
anthropogenic
disturbances
impacts
e.g.
forest
fragmentaFon
&
logging
• Intensify
liana
removal
• Regular
forest
and
understory
thinning
• PracFce
salvage
logging
• Suppress
invasive
&
fire
resistant
veg.
species
e.g.
Imperata
&
Gorse
• Tree
species
and
composiFon
change
§ Enhance
wildfire
prevenCon
and
control
FAO
(2007):
In
many
tropical
countries,
there
is
insufficient
wildfire
prevenFon
knowledge,
capacity
in
wildfire
detecFon,
and
suppression
resources,
especially
in
rural
areas.
• Other
sectors
need
to
be
involved
in
addressing
fire
• Prevent
igniFon
sources
reach
fire
prone
forest
e.g.
wider
fire
breaks
and
reduce
fire
use
in
agriculture
• Improve
fire-­‐fighFng
equipment,
knowledge
and
skills

11. Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (3)
§ Improve
policy
&
its
implementaCon
• Improve
rule
system
in
governing
the
use
of
fire.
The
exisFng
policies
and
legislaFons
usually
criminalise
the
use
of
fire
and
don’t
consider
the
importance
of
fire
for
people’s
livelihoods.
• Make
legislaFons
work
It
is
important
to
collaborate
with
all
stakeholders.
There
are
many
examples
of
success
stories
of
involving
local
communiFes,
e.g.
o
Namibia:
reduced
burned
areas
by
54%
and
decrease
fire
incidences
by
70%
annually
o
Kalimantan,
Indonesia:
areas
under
community
control
experience
less
burning
o
Central
America:
1.5
mill
hectares
of
forest
burned,
almost
none
burned
at
community
managed
forests
• Improve
law
enforcement

12. Adapting to Future Fire Danger Increase (4)
§ Enhance
access
to
knowledge
and
informaCon
on
forests,
forest
management,
and
climate
change
adaptaCon
• Mainstream
adaptaFon
into
forestry
sector
in
the
tropics
(e.g.
Increase
awareness:
enhancing
adaptaFve
capability
of
forest)
• Improve
access
to
informaFon
on
climate
impacts
on
wildfire
&
adapt.
measures
o A
number
of
tools
available
for
assessing
future
forest
fire
hazards
e.g.
vegetaFon
and
fire
related
models
(LANDCLIM,
Glob-­‐FIRM,
MC1,
FDRS),
and
remote
sensing
(NOAA
AVHRR,
MODIS,
ERS
SAR)
o Many
insFtuFons
have
produced
guidelines
and
informaFon
related
to
forest
and
fire
management,
and
climate
change
adaptaFon,
e.g.
⁻ FSC,
ITTO
&
CIFOR
=>
C&I
Sustainable
Forest
Management)
⁻ ITTO
&
FAO
=>
Guidelines
for
managing
FF
⁻ UNDP
=
>
AdaptaFon
Policy
Framework
• Explore
and
exchange
local
knowledge
and
experiences
on
nature
and
fire
management,
e.g.
o Ghana:
CommuniFes
pracFce
fire
management
e.g.
fire
break
around
farms
and
forests
o Dayak
tribe-­‐Indonesia
has
customary
laws
for
using
fire.
§ Etc.

13. Thank you
Email:h.herawati@cgiar.org