Climate Change Adapation & Transportation Resiliency Workshop held for state and local agency staff 9.17.2012

1. 2040 Regional Transportation Plan
Climate Change &
Transportation Resiliency
September 17, 2012
Chattanooga-Hamilton County/N. GA Transportation Planning Organization

2. Module 1: Welcome and Introductions
AGENDA & WORKSHOP GOALS

3. Why put Adaptation in the RTP?
• Transportation projects in the RTP will need to
withstand climate stressors
• The transportation network produced by the RTP will
need to provide redundancy of routes for extreme
weather events
• Overlap with other sections of RTP
– Maintenance/State of Good Repair
– Safety/Security
• Adaptation strategies contribute to Goals and
Objectives of the 2040 RTP

4. Region to Region
Community to Region
Within Community
Goal: GROW ECONOMIC
OPPORTUNITY THROUGH STRATEGIC
INVESTMENT IN CRITICAL REGIONAL
Goal: CONNECT COMMUNITIES TO
INFRASTRUCTURE
OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION BY
Goal: BUILD AND MAINTAIN SAFE AND PROVIDING MULTIMODAL TRAVEL
Objectives:
HEALTHY COMMUNITIES OPTIONS TO ACTIVITY AND
ECONOMIC CENTERS • Preserve, maintain and improve
existing infrastructure before
Objectives: adding new capacity
2040 RTP • Support walkable and bicycle-friendly
Objectives:
• Preserve, maintain and improve • Support continued economic
communities that promote safe, non-
Draft Goals motorized connections to community
existing infrastructure before adding growth of the region by improving
intermodal connections that reduce
new capacity
and resources
• Provide incentives for complete streets
• Provide incentives for complete delay for both people and goods
streets project design • Reduce delay on critical regional
Objectives project design
• Encourage corridor improvements thoroughfares with minimal impact
• Encourage investments anchored in to community, historic and
anchored in integrated
integrated transportation and land use environmental resources
transportation and land use
planning, that support desired • Improve the efficiency and
planning, that support desired
community character reliability of freight, cargo and
community character
• Improve safety through improved goods movement by reducing delay
• Improve mobility and support
operations, preventative maintenance, on corridors critical to freight
economic development by providing
and ADA compliance movement
expanded set of travel options, with
• Prioritize investments in areas where • Improve travel time reliability
emphasis on public transit
local land use and development through improved system
• Improve travel time reliability
regulations support healthy, safe operations
through improved system
communities
operations
• Prioritize investment that improves
• Incentive corridor protection plans
multimodal access to existing or planned
transit hubs or that fills gaps in existing
multimodal system Note: Draft goals and objectives recently endorsed by TCC with
• Encourage connected street network
small modifications. To be presented to TPO Board on Oct. 16

5. Agenda
1. Introduction
2. Extreme Weather
3. Climate Futures
4. Transportation Resiliency
5. Critical Infrastructure
• Lunch
6. Vulnerability Assessment
7. Adaptation Strategies
8. Next RTP Cycle
9. Wrap Up

6. Module 2: Extreme Weather
THE PAST AND PRESENT: WEATHER IN
THE CHATTANOOGA REGION

7. Extreme Events in the Southeast
• Heavy Rainfall and Floods
• Extreme Heat and Cold
• Droughts
• Winter Storms
• Thunderstorms and Tornadoes
• A Note: Climate vs. Weather
Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

8. SE Regional Climate Observations
• Climate variability has increased across much of the region
– more exceptionally wet and dry summers compared to the middle part
of the 20th century
• Increases in extreme precipitation, along with
urbanization, has increased runoff, increasing risk of flash and
river flooding
• Since 1970s, temperatures have steadily increased, especially
during the summer season
– 2001-2010 is the warmest decade on record
– Upward trend in extreme events over past 3 decades
Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

9. SE Precipitation Variability
Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data

10. SE Extreme Precipitation Trends
1-day 20% chance
5-day 20% chance
• Frequency of extreme precipitation increasing in the SE
Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

11. Chattanooga Extreme Precip
Depicts 10-year rainfall
events or greater only
• 4 extreme events since 1977 within NOAA-estimated 50
year average recurrence interval (the 50-year 24 hr event)
• 2011 rainfall event exceeds top range for 1000-year event
Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP; Recurrence intervals: NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 2, Version 3

12. SE Temperature Variability
* Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data

13. Chattanooga Extreme Temp
60
50
40
Days >= 95 F
30
20
10
0
1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008
# Days >= 95F Avg. Days >=95F 5 per. Mov. Avg. (# Days >= 95F)
Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP

14. $ Billion Weather Disasters, 1980-2005
• Since 1980, the SE US has experienced more billion‐dollar
weather disasters than any other region in the country

15. Disaster Declarations by Decade
• Declarations on the rise in TN and GA
Source: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP)

16. Chattanooga Disaster Declarations
• Hamilton
County, TN, regionally
unique in susceptibility
to flooding
• All counties vulnerable
to severe storm events
Source: FEMA

17. Declared Disasters, 2000-2012*
Year Incidents Season
2003 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring
2004 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING Fall
2011 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring
SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE
2011 Spring
WINDS, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING
*Hamilton County. Source: FEMA.

18. Flood of 2003 (1/3)
• Heaviest rains in McMinn County (12+ in) from May 5-8
• In Chattanooga:
– Peak 24 hour rain fall in 2-year recurrence range
– Peak 4 day rainfall in 50-year recurrence range
• Record flooding on the South Chickamauga Creek
• Near (modern) record flooding on the Tennessee River
Source: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN

19. Flood of 2003 (2/3)

20. Flood of 2003 (3/3)
• Widespread road closures, damage, and evacuations
• Damage in Chattanooga region was estimated at $17 million
Photo credit: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN

21. 2004 Flooding Events (Ivan)
• South Chickamauga Creek reached 25.1 feet, 7.1 feet
above flood stage, causing evacuations, road
closures, airport flooding
Source: Hamilton County Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan, 2012. Photo Credit: The Chattanoogan.com

22. 2011 Flooding Events
• Feb 28 - March 1: Declared disaster
• April 25 - 28: Declared disaster
• September: Record rainfall

23. Module 4a: Climate Change Background
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CHATTANOOGA REGION
JOANNE LOGAN, UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE

24. “Greenhouse” Effect

25. “Greenhouse” Effect
Mercury

26. 400
2010 CO2 Concentration: 390
380
After 35 more years at the current rate of increase
360
340
320
300
280
260
CO2 (ppmv)
240
220
200
180
800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0
Age (years BP)
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA

27. 10 Hottest Years on Record, USA

28. 2012 Statement of AMS (1/3)
• American Meteorological Society
• Based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature
• Warming of the climate system now is
unequivocal, according to many different kinds of
evidence
• The effects of this warming are especially evident in the
planet’s polar regions
• Most of the world’s glaciers are in retreat
• Globally averaged sea level has risen by about 17 cm (7
inches) in the 20th century, with the rise accelerating
since the early 1990s

29. Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt

30. 2012 Statement of AMS (2/3)
• Very heavy precipitation events have increased over the last 50
years throughout the U.S.
• Freezing levels are rising in elevation, with rain occurring more
frequently instead of snow at mid-elevations of western
mountains
• Spring maximum snowpack is decreasing, snowmelt occurs
earlier, and the spring runoff that supplies over two-thirds of
western U.S. streamflow is reduced.
• Earlier springs, longer frost-free periods, longer growing
seasons, and shifts in natural habitats and in migratory patterns
of birds and insects

31. 2012 Statement of AMS (3/3)
• Climate is always changing
• Many of the observed changes are beyond what can
be explained by the natural variability of the climate
• Dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the
past half century is human-induced increases in the
amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including
carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane,
and nitrous oxide

32. Emission Scenarios to 2025

33. Emission Scenarios to 2100

34. General Circulation Models (GCMs)
•GCMs represent
physical processes in the
atmosphere, ocean, cryo
sphere and land surface
•3-D grids over the
globe, 250-600km, 10-20
vertical layers, up to 30
ocean layers
•May be statistically
downscaled to consider
regional scale impacts
Source and image credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

35. July Avg. Temps (2010-60, A1B)
Source: Shepherd and Mote, U of Georgia

36. Change in Heat Stress Days

37. Change in Heavy Precip Events
Source: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment

38. Module 4b: Climate Change Background
POTENTIAL FUTURE EXTREMES IN THE
CHATTANOOGA REGION

39. Extreme Temperatures (>95°)
Projected Number of Days 95 F or above
60
50
40 BL
Number of Days/Yr
B1_2040
A1B_2040
30
A2_2040
B1_2070
20 A1B_2070
A2_2070
10
0
DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW

40. Extreme Temperature (>100°)
Projected Number of Days 100 F or above
16
14
12
BL
Number of Days/Yr
10
B1_2040
A1B_2040
8
A2_2040
6 B1_2070
A1B_2070
4 A2_2070
2
0
DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW

41. Days Above 95F
Less than 15
15 - 20
20 - 25
25 - 30
30 - 35
35 - 40
40 - 45
45 - 50
41

42. Extreme Precipitation (50-year)
•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3% maximum
increase for Chattanooga AP)
•Return periods of today’s 50-year event likely to shrink (on average every 42-45
years)

43. 24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in)
Less than 5.50
5.51 - 6.00
6.01 - 6.50
6.51 - 7.00
7.01 - 7.50
7.51 - 8.00
8.01 - 8.50
Above 8.50
43

44. Extreme Precipitation (100-year)
•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3.3% maximum
increase for Chattanooga AP)
•Return periods of today’s 100-year event likely to shrink (on average every 82-
87 years)
•Conservative case: Using a full range of GCMs adds ¼ inch/24-hours in 2070
(recurrence interval of 66 years for today’s event)
•By 2100, the high range adds > ½ inch/24-hours, recurrence interval is 52.5 yrs

45. 24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in)
Less than 5.50
5.51 - 6.00
6.01 - 6.50
6.51 - 7.00
7.01 - 7.50
7.51 - 8.00
8.01 - 8.50
Above 8.50
45

46. Module 4: Assessing What is At Risk and How to Adapt
TRANSPORTATION RESILIENCY

47. Discussion Areas
• Survey of climate impacts on various transportation
assets by mode – what are the consequences?
– Framework for understanding categories of impact
– Documented impacts from the literature
• Determining timeframes, risks and consequences
– Lifespan of assets
– Climate hazard protection windows
• Introducing adaptation

48. Impacts from Extreme Weather
• Roadways
Source: Travis Long / The News & Observer via AP; Steve Taylor Sheriffs Dept 48

49. Impacts from Extreme Weather
• Bridges
Source: WSDOT; Police Lieutenant Mickey Garner, in Nashville

50. Categories of Impact
• No impact, either infrastructure was able to withstand
NO IMPACT impact, or climate stressor did not affect the asset
• Temporary closure of facility
DISRUPT
• Over time, a facility is affected by more frequent occurrences
DETERIOR- of extreme events and asset begins to deteriorate
ATION
• The facility was unable to withstand impact, and is damaged
DAMAGE
50

51. Impacts from Extreme Weather
• Transit
Source: Nashville MTA; US Volpe Center 51

52. Impacts from Extreme Weather
• Marine Facilities, Freight and Intermodal
Source: George Hornal, TDOT 52

53. Impacts from Extreme Weather
• Airports
Source: George Hornal, TDOT ; NYCAviation.com 53

54. Exercise: Climate Impacts
• What impacts from extreme weather and potential
future climate do you face?
– A heavy rainfall event can result in flooding (sometimes from culverts
and bridges being blocked with debris), erosion, rock falls, and scour
around bridgeheads and footings. If you were experiencing severe
flood conditions, what would your biggest concerns be?
– During heat waves, deterioration could impact certain infrastructure
components (asphalt on highways, concrete bridge joints). If you were
experiencing an excessive number of high heat days, what would your
biggest concerns be?

55. Impacts from Temperature (1/2)
Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations
Increases in very hot days •Asphalt degradation and pavement rutting, resulting in possible
and heat waves (higher short-term loss of public access or increased congestion of
high temperatures, sections of road and highway during repair and replacement
increased duration of heat •Increased thermal expansion of bridge joints and paved
waves) surfaces, causing possible degradation
•Concerns regarding pavement integrity, traffic-related rutting and
migration of liquid asphalt, blow outs from concrete paving
•Maintenance and construction costs for roads and bridges; stress
on bridge integrity due to temperature expansion of concrete
joints, steel, asphalt, protective cladding, coats, and sealants
•Limits on periods of construction activity, and more nighttime
work
•Vehicle failures from overheating and tire degradation
Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 55
Council (2008).

56. Impacts from Temperature (2/2)
Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations
Decreases in very cold •Regional changes in snow and ice removal
days costs, environmental impacts from salt and chemical use
•Fewer cold-related restrictions for maintenance workers
Later onset of seasonal •Heaving/potholes (due to freeze-thaw)
freeze and earlier onset •Fatigue cracking (cold temperature)
of seasonal thaw •Changes in seasonal weight restrictions
•Changes in seasonal fuel requirements
•Improved mobility and safety associated with a
reduction in winter weather
•Longer construction season in colder areas
Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008).
56

57. Impacts from Precipitation (1/2)
Climate Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations
Effect
Increases in •Areas in which flooding is already common will face more frequent and severe
intense problems
precipitation •Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions
events •Increased flooding of evacuation routes
•Increases in flooding of roadways and tunnels, culvert failures
•Increases in road washout, landslides, and mudslides that damage roadways
•Drainage systems likely to be overloaded more frequently and severely, causing
backups and street flooding
•If soil moisture levels become too high, structural integrity of
roads, bridges, and tunnels (especially where they are already under stress)
could be compromised
•Standing water may have adverse effects on road base
•Increased peak streamflow could affect scour rates and influence the size
requirement for bridges and culverts
•Driver accidents increased/driver safety compromised
Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 57
Council (2008).

58. Impacts from Precipitation (2/2)
Climate Impacts on Infrastructure and Operations
Effect
Changes in •Benefits for safety and reduced interruptions if frozen precipitation shifts to
seasonal rainfall
precipitation •Corrosion (from increased surface salts due to less precipitation)
and stream •Increased risk of floods, landslides, gradual failures and damage to roads if
precipitation changes from snow to rain in winter and spring thaws; more
flow erosion
patterns •Vegetation failure (due to drought)
•Increased maintenance and replacement costs of road infrastructure
•Short-term loss of public access or increased congestion to sections of road
and highway from road closures and disruptions
•Changes in access to floodplains during construction season and mobilization
periods
•Changes in wetland location and the associated natural protective services
that wetlands offer to infrastructure
Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 58
Council (2008).

59. Why Consider Adaptation?
• Planning for the future can benefit the present
• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly
than responding reactively to climate change impacts
as they happen
• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks
• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits

60. Planning and Adaptation
0ft 1ft 2f 3ft 4ft 5ft
t
Existing levees
Enhance existing wetlands, realign levees
Terraced levees levee
Terraced brackish
Realign functions
Realign functions
Threshold Decision Lead Time Effective
60
Source: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1904/500/

61. Approach to Risk and Adaptation
• Thresholds vs. frequencies
• What is the expected lifespan of the asset?
• What climate hazards may impact the asset, and in
what timeframe?
• Which adaptation strategies are potentially
applicable?
61

62. Est. Average Lifespan of Asset
Mode Infrastructure Lifetime (years)
Surface Transportation Pavement 10-20
Bridges 50-100
Culverts 30-45
Tunnels 50-100
Railroad Tracks Up to 50
Marine Locks and dams 50
Docks and port terminals 40-50
Aviation Runway pavements 10
Terminals 40-50
Pipelines Pipelines 100
Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 62
Council (2008).

63. Timing for Strategies
• Planning
– Up to 25 years
• Design, Engineering and Project Development
– Can be >10 years design
– Able to leverage funding and flexibility for expected changes
• Maintenance
– Approx 1-10 years decisions
– Limited funding and flexibility
• Operations
– Day-to-day decisions
– Come up with Plan B
Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 63
Council (2008).

64. Adaptation Investment Choices
• RTP Development
• Strategic Abandonment/Redundancy
• Emergency Evaluation Planning
Planning • Hazard Mitigation Planning
• Standards and Specifications
• Engineering for Resiliency
• Advanced Materials
Design • Protecting and Hardening
• Traffic Operations
• ITS
• Maintenance
Operations • Emergency Response
64

65. Example adaptation strategies
• For example…
– Flood barriers
– Emergency detours
– Drainage maintenance
Source: Dan Henry, Chattanooga Times Free Press; Associated Press; FHWA

66. Interactive Exercise: Adaptation
• Earlier, we listed out the types of impacts from
increased precipitation and temperature.
• Now, we will brainstorm adaptation strategies for the
various stressors into categories of planning, design
and operations.
• We will summarize this information for you to use in
Module 7.

67. Module 5: Criticality Assessment
THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION
NETWORK: CRITICALITY

68. The regional transportation system
A mature, multi-modal system Mode Total
Highways (Miles)
• Roadways Interstate 50.2
• Freight rail US Highway 126.4
State Highway 242.4
• Airport Other 4030.1
• Intermodal freight facilities Railroads (Miles)
Class I 171.3
• Marine facilities Other 50.2
Intermodal Facilities 16
Airports/heliports
CHA/Lovell 1
Other airports 5
Heliports 3
Marine (terminals/docks) 31

69. Elements: Roadways

70. Elements: Rail

71. Elements: Multimodal

72. Role of Transportation System
• Brainstorm: What is the role of the transportation
system in:
– Your communities?
– Your region?
– Beyond …?

73. Transportation “Values”
• What attributes do you value in your transportation
system (what do you want it to provide)?

74. Criticality: Jobs and Pop. Density

75. Criticality: Public Services

76. Criticality: Volumes

77. Criticality: Planned Projects

78. Critical Assets
• Which assets are critical to fulfilling transportation
roles and values in:
– Your communities?
– Your region?
– Beyond…?

79. Criticality: Your turn!
Roads & Bridges
Rail
Air
Maritime
Intermodal

80. Module 6: Vulnerability Assessment
THE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION
NETWORK: VULNERABILITY

81. Results from Criticality
Votes Received
>=3 <3
• Map of critical places
Roads & Bridges
generated over lunch
Rail
• Feedback from small
groups Air
Maritime
Intermodal

82. What makes an asset vulnerable?
• Stressors
– Extreme precipitation (flash floods, river floods)
– Extreme temperatures
– Hurricanes/tropical storms, tornadoes, other high
winds, blizzards, wildfires, etc.

83. What makes an asset vulnerable?
• Impacts
– Is the asset exposed to the stressor, will it be in the future?
• Some stressors are map-able (e.g. flooding)
• Others are less spatially explicit (e.g. temperature)
– What impacts could occur, what are the likely consequences?
• Damage?
• Disruption?
• Deterioration?
• No Impact?
– How frequently could impacts occur, with what probability?
• How might these frequencies change in the future?

87. Vulnerability: Priorities for Action?
EXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*
# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq
1 Bridge Extreme Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++
precip
Overtop Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++
Approach
Extreme Expansion Disrupt 3x yr  +++
Temp
•Future consequences and frequencies may grow worse (or get better)
due to changes in condition, climate, or external factors (e.g. change in
volumes)

88. Module 7: Developing Adaptation Strategies for the CHCRPA RTP
ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND THE
REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN
NOTE: Due to time constraints, adaptation was combined with the vulnerability
module. This set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.

89. Reminder: Why Adaptation?
• Planning for the future can benefit the present
• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly
than responding reactively to climate change impacts
as they happen
• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks
• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits

90. Interactive Exercise: Strategies
• Now we will develop adaptation strategies for the
examples we generated in the previous module.
• Note: remember you can refer to your “cheat sheet.”

91. Interactive Exercise: Strategies
• Process for selecting adaptation strategies
– What is the expected lifespan of the asset?
– Which climate hazards may impact the asset, and
in what timeframe?
– Which adaptation strategies are potentially
applicable?
• Implementation feasibility
• Effectiveness

92. Strategy Framework
EXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*
# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq
1 Bridge Extreme Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++
precip
Overtop Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++
Approach
Extreme Expansion Disrupt 3x yr  +++
Temp
Which adaptation strategies are potentially applicable?
•Implementation feasibility
•Effectiveness

93. Module 8: Monitoring, Evaluation, Feedback
PREPARING FOR THE NEXT PLANNING
CYCLE
NOTE: Due to time constraints, this set of slides was not delivered during the
workshop.

94. How to put into RTP? (1/3)
• Flag projects in 2040 RTP that are identified as being
potentially vulnerable
– Work with project sponsors to incorporate adaptation
strategies into project design, if necessary
– Define new transportation projects that enhance
transportation resiliency

95. How to put into RTP? (2/3)
• Incorporate into performance measures
– New measure: Does project provide network
redundancy for a critical/vulnerable transportation
asset?
– Adjustment factor for scoring of other measures
• Example: Project addresses existing bridge deficiency (extra
points if asset is critical/vulnerable)

96. How to put into RTP? (3/3)
• Related planning processes that address more
detailed adaptation strategies
– Design for resiliency as part of TIP project selection
procedures?

97. How to continue with next RTP?
• Update criticality/vulnerability assessment as new
data/better models become available
– US Army Corps hydrological model (HEC-RTS) with slider
bar to see how floodplains change for potential rainfall
events
– Travel demand model updated each cycle
• Incorporate new projects/adaptation strategies as
they are developed
• Refine integration into RTP performance
measures/TIP selection criteria

98. Module 9: Closing and Wrap Up
THANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!