Elizabeth Smith, ssociate National Program Director, Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program, US EPA was the keynote speaker at the Commission for Environmental Cooperation's Joint Public Advisory Committee meeting in December 2012 in Merida, Mexico.
Ähnlich wie Keynote presentation from Elizabeth Smith. Ecosystem Vulnerability: Assessment Approaches from EPA’s Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program
Ähnlich wie Keynote presentation from Elizabeth Smith. Ecosystem Vulnerability: Assessment Approaches from EPA’s Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program (20)
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Keynote presentation from Elizabeth Smith. Ecosystem Vulnerability: Assessment Approaches from EPA’s Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program
1. Ecosystem Vulnerability: Assessment
Approaches from EPA’s Regional
Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA)
Program
• Betsy Smith, Ph.D.
• Sustainable and Healthy
Communities Research Program
• CEC JPAC Workshop
Office of Research and Development • Merida, Yucatan, Mexico
Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program
Dec. 13, 2012
2. What Makes an Ecosystem “Vulnerable”?
• Condition
Pristine, Good, Stressed, Degraded
• Sustainability
f (ecosystem sensitivity, resiliency; stressors affecting)
• Value to Society
Aesthetics, Economic Opportunities, Goods and Services
What Drives Risk Management Decisions?
• Feasibility, Clear Options, Economics
What works where?, Range of method applicability
3. ReVA Overview
Problem
Given multiple stresses affecting multiple endpoints simultaneously,
how can limited resources be targeted to maximize benefits and
minimize problems?
How do we incorporate various perspectives to balance among
competing priorities?
Clients
EPA Regional Offices (enforce regulations)
EPA Program Offices (set regulations)
State and Local Decision-makers (manage compliance with
regulations)
....Anyone faced with this and no tools at hand to do it well...
4. Future Scenarios:
Projections of Major Drivers of
Ecological Change
In the US, despite compliance with
environmental regulations, biological
populations are continuing to decline.
Major drivers of change include:
Land use change
Resource extractions
Pollution and pollutants
Exotic invasive species
Climate change
5. Projecting Land Use Change
Suite of methods:
• Economics
• Planned roads, developments
• Rural and urban change
Input into decisions affecting
Conservation of native biodiversity
Increased risk of flooding
Nonpoint source pollution
Urban sprawl/quality of life
Drinking water quality and supply
Pests and pathogens in forests
Economic opportunities
6. Resource Extraction and Special Areas
Low
Globally-unique area in
terms of intact, deciduous,
High
temperate forest
Among the most biodiverse areas
Projected Change in Hardwood Removals Habitat for large migratory species
in the Mid-Atlantic Region through 2020
Highest unemployment in
region
Current patterns of forest Targeted by
Mountain-top removal mining
fragmentation Expansion of chip mills from SE
Potential Impacts on
Native biodiversity
Water quality
Quality of life
7. Current and Future (2020) Projections for the Mid-Atlantic Region
Drivers of Ecological Change
Giant Salvinia
Land use/
land cover
Modeled using GARP
Modeled using SLEUTH Modeled using CMAQ
8. Where will valued
resources be subjected to
additional stress?
Use by EPA
Regional Offices to
prioritize
management
options
Watersheds in blue are candidates for
use of Region 3’s discretionary funds for
water monitoring, continuing existing
projects, initiating new projects,
partnerships with local communities for
responsible development…..
9. Charlotte MSA
Demonstrating Trade-offs North Carolina
Mecklenburg
County
Adjacent
Counties
South Carolina
Sustainable
Environment for
Quality of Life
• Promotes integrated planning to protect the environment and quality of
life while promoting economic win-wins
• Landmark regional partnership for integrated planning
• One of the first of its kind in the nation
• 15-county region, encompassing approximately 10,000 square miles
• Federal, State, and Local Governments in partnership
10. Choices:
Development Alternatives
Growth as Usual Centers of
Development
OR
Resulting patterns of land
consumption
11. Alternative Scenarios of
Development
Medium Density Development Compact Centers Development
• Fewer Houses per Acre • More Houses per Acre
• More Land Consumption • Less Land Consumption
• Decentralized Employment • Centralized Employment
• Growth Less Linked to Transit • Growth Linked to Transit
12.
13. Low Density High Density
Net Changes, all
metrics combined
Watersheds in yellow
showed better overall
conditions resulting from
high density development
over low density (sprawl)
14. Change drivers of interest for
Midwestern place-based study
Energy Independence and Security Act
mandates increased production and use of
biofuels
• Biofuels
– Potential for rapid, large-scale
changes in land use or land Locations of ethanol biorefineries and FML boundary
management
Conservation Reserve Program Participation
– Implicit trade-offs among ecosystem ($/acre)
services
• Agricultural conservation practices
– Existing area of large investment,
uncertain benefit
– Increasing interest in ecosystem
service-based incentives and markets
15. Projection of 2022 landscape changes due
to biofuel targets: Parcel change from
corn/soybean to continuous corn
Detail for Corn Belt area in Illinois
In the Corn Belt,
corn/soybean rotation will
change to continuous
corn, requiring greater
chemical inputs and
depleting soil productivity
Base Year (2001) Biofuel Targets (2022)
Corn/soybean Continuous
rotation corn
16. Implications of Forecast Change:
Increase in nitrogen fertilization
Increase in corn production
Corn production change
(bushels per 30-m raster)
Increase in atrazine application
17. Combining spatial data to improve
community exposure estimates
Atrazine application + individual
surface water use + population
density
18. Exposure: Service value is related to the ability to
mitigate or reduce risk
Combined index: Atrazine
Estimated Atrazine application
application and population
for Base Year landscape
using surface water supplies
Potential risk only – Risk + Exposure –
incomplete endpoint a better endpoint
18
19. Integration of Spatial Data: the Method Used Matters!
All of these maps were produced using the
same set of data; only the integration
method differs
Should ask:
Is the method robust given the data being synthesized?
Is the method addressing the right question?
For more info on see www.epa.gov/reva :
Guidelines to Assessing Regional Vulnerability
20. EnviroAtlas
National, coast-to-coast ,
scalable coverage of metrics
for:
• ecosystem services
• built environment
• demographics
• drivers of change (e.g. pollution,
population growth, development)
Analytical tools to:
• screen
• compare
• assess
• evaluate scenarios
Hi-resolution classification and analysis for
250 urban areas across country
• linking ecosystem services to human health and
well-being
• allowing queries on subpopulations of concern
•
20identifying actions to mitigate pollution and
reduce energy costs
21.
22. Potential for Tree Cover
to Buffer Airborne
Pollutants from Busy
Roadways (estimated
threshold is > 25% cover within
26m of road edge)
Greater Durham, NC (Chapel Hill detail)
ReVA, like EMAP is being piloted in the mid-Atlantic region and thus contributes to the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA) (worth noting that ReVA will also be followed by a third ORD ecological research effort piloted in the MA, headed by NRMRL: EcoRiM (ecological risk management)). This publication is MAIA’s most recent publication and it considers what EMAP has shown in the MA region. The bottom line is that despite the fact that there is very good compliance with environmental regulations throughout the region, biological populations across the board are in decline. EMAP implicates several possible causes for these declines. REVA is undertaking reseach to develop models in each of these areas so that we can estimate current exposures as well as possible future scenarios, allowing proactive decision-making.
Most land use change modeling efforts have focused on fine-scale, urban focus, but we know that the process of land use change across regional scales and in rural areas does not follow the same process. So we are looking at a suite of methods to better capture land use change across a regional, recognizing the influence of urban change on rural areas. We are working with a regional economics-based land use change model, that is based on projected population and changes in demographics. We have also contacted all the state DOTs and planning agencies to obtain information on where future roads/highways are planned, where road improvements are planned, as well as where new development/industrial centers are planned. Along with the data on planned developments we have captured the estimated numbers of people expected to be employed there.
The model of risk of timber removals considers both economics and available transportation routes. The map on the left shows current patterns of forest fragmentation, with the darker blue (much of it in WV) as areas of low fragmentation. Worth noting that a recent analysis of global fragmentation patterns by members of the ReVA team identified the highland areas as globally significant in the amount of intact deciduous temperate forests. The same area is also targeted as having high risk of timber removals in future. This will implications for forest fragmentation, increases in sediment loading, and other issues.
Also includes the s state governments, and over 100 local jusridictions. It is a true partnership in putting together the future scenarios (the region is designing), the data (led by UNC-Charlotte), modeling the transportation patterns (Charlotte DOT), modeling the air quality (state of NC), developing the toolkit and indicators (ReVA team).
Partners listed are those that ReVA is partnering with and may not include all that other SEQL partners are working with Graphic is a screen shot from the prototype EDT that we have developed for demonstration purposes – futures shown are ficticious, just for illustration Demonstration future scenarios include a low density scenario where projected residential population is distributed at 1 household per acre, beginning at city boundary; and a high density scenario – projected population is distributed first by infilling urban boundary, then distributing at 4.5 households per acre. Maps depict estimates of phosphorus in surface water; phosphorus is region’s biggest NPS problem. Difference map at bottom shows watersheds in gold that have higher estimates of phosphorus entering system under the low density scenario. (LHS is left-hand side, RHS is right-hand side)
We have focused on two primary drivers of change. Biofuels policies are driving large and rapid shifts in agricultural land use, and implicit trade-offs among services. Agricultural conservation practices are a major area of public investment, and federal agencies are working to better quantify how the public benefits from these practices—specifically, the ecosystem services they provide. Within the agricultural community, interest is growing in potential markets for these services.
Here is a comparison of our 2001 Base Year with our 2022 Biofuel Targets landscape, in which many areas of corn-soybean rotation are projected to change to continuous corn.
Change in corn yield due to increased planting of monoculture corn, starting with most productive soils within each state. Decrease due only to loss of farmland as a result of urban growth (ICLUS). So can’t see unless zoom into closer view.
Example from ESRP Future Midwestern Landscapes study showing how we can combine different metrics to estimate vulnerabilities from exposure to atrazine in surface water.