3. Communities
of practice
Research
Joint projects
Outreach

4.  Network
platform: events
f2f/online
 Partnerships
 Translation

8.  Extraordinary political or economic event
 Technology breakthrough (ex: AI, unrest)

10.  Multiple
sources
 Should be
longitudinal

11.  Social
networks
 Iterated
resource
feeds
 Scanner
contributes
content

12. Next 20 years?
Screening
Interacting
Sharing
Flowing
Accessing Pattern recognition:
Generating Deductions from
scanning
-Kevin Kelly

13.  Assemble
experts
 Probe for
opinions
 Rank and
distill ideas
 Reiterate

14. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
One Year or Less
Massively Open Online
Courses
Tablet Computing

15. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:
Two to Three Years
Big Data and Learning
Analytics
Game-Based Learning

16. Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: Four to Five Years
3D Printing
Wearable Technology

17.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded

19.  Continuous  Quant. + Qual.
 Distributed  Affordances of
feedback play

20. Stories about futures  Roles and times
 Event and response  Emergent practices and
 Creativity patterns

21. Integrate previous methods:
 Select drivers – environmental
scan
 Identify trends – Delphi reports
 Test trends - extrapolation
 Test propositions – prediction
markets

24.  More Asian liberal  More Asian than
arts campuses Hispanic immigrants
 State university  Certification rising
gaming company  New OLI use cases
 Social media growth  Kickstarter continues
continues to grow
 "Generation Screwed"  One R1 tries to cut
vs seniors online libraries down
 Microsoft tablet  Academic unions crit
 Google US-sources distance learning
hardware
July 2012 scan sample

25.  Senior job
 Google Glass video
retention shooting
 Government-
 3d printing lab
supported maker equipment
classes
 US R+D low
 MOOCs: more;
 MBA bubble?
mutations
 Adjunct
 Google Course-
builder discrimination by
time
 New badges
initiative September 2012 scan sample

26.  British MOOC  cloud computing
enterprise price war
 printer sales stagnate
 The United States
birthrate fell to its  Android dominates
smartphones
lowest level since
 3d printing in
1920
Staples
 student-library
 adjunct union
disconnection organization
 academic social  enrolled
media use cases undergraduates
January 2013 scan sample decline

27.  Demographic  Open edu expands
crunch and few  Digital humanities
spikes grows
 More MOOCs  Athletics spending
does well
 Online
 Shale oil -> edu
coursetaking
spending
rises
 Facebook search
 F2f enrollment launches
stalls
February 2013 scan sample

28. 1. Economics and college finances
2. Communities and populations
3. Teaching and learning and tech
4. Technology ecosystem
5. The future of liberal education
6. MOOCs
7. Scholarship

29. Mark Weiser, 1988ff
 Example:"The Computer for
the Twenty-First Century"
(1991)
“The most profound technologies are
those that disappear. They weave
themselves into the fabric of
everyday life until they are
indistinguishable from it.”

32. First, the light stuff
 Museum tours
 GPS navigators (Garmin)
 Location services (Yelp)

35. Search
the
world

36. Multimedia lives here

37. AR art

38. Gartner: end of the
mouse
Touch screen (iOS)
Handhelds (Wii)
Nothing (Kinect)

40.  Median age of gamers shoots past
35
 Industry size comparable to music
 Impacts on
hardware, software, interfaces, othe
r industries
 Large and growing diversity of
platforms, topics, genres, niches, pl

41. Anecdata: number
of Facebook
CityVille players:
23,900,000
(as of July 2012, http://www.appdata.com/?AFB_redir=1 )

42. Games
serious,
public, and
political
• Oiligarchy, Molle Industries
• Jetset, Persuasive Games
• The Great Shakeout, California
• DimensionM, Tabula Digita

46. Imperial
gamification

47. (political
and
mundane)

48. Use games to impact
society

49. 1. Phantom Learning
2. Open world
3. The Lost Decade
4. The Serpent Digests a
Very Large Mammal
5. Renaissance

50. Post-tsunami
Schools are rare
and distant
Information is
plentiful and
nearby

51. Information on demand
Instructors, peers “ “
Grading outsourced
Multimedia:
social, personalized

52. Institutions
Function: content
supplements
Faculty: adjunct rōnin
Accreditation:
online, multiple, display-

53. Institutions
Library:media
production camp
Professional
development: via social
media

54. Students spent more time in K-12
with online classes than face-to-
face ones
K-12 as social center, working
parent support spaces
Libraries are software
Buildings without AR look naked

56. No good categorical name:
…which sometimes
indicates the future

57. Open
content, ope
n
access, open
source
• Very Web-centric

58. Global conversations
increase, filter bubble pops
More access, more
information
Lots of creativity

59. Information prices drop
Faculty creativity, flexibility
grow
IT “ “ “
Academic content
unleashed on the world

60. Industries collapse
Authorship mysterious
Some low quality tech
(videoconf.)
Some higher costs
More malware + less privacy

61. Tech challenges
Outsourcing and offshoring
PLE beats LMS
Crowdsourcing faculty work
Information literacy central

62. Internet has always been
open
Web <> money
Online identity has always
been fictional, playful

68. Media
battles

70. Higher education landscape:
Two Cultures redux: STEM vs
New Left
Adjunct faculty 95%
Public institutions’ shrunken
footprints
Scholarly publication 1/3rd 2000
level

71. Higher education landscape:
Accreditation: the source
of closures
Libraries: rare and/or
smaller
Professional development:
distance, DiY

72.  Great Recession began in 1st grade
 One or more family members unemployed
“ “ “ “ “ underemployed
 Public education has always been stretched
to breaking point/poor
 Public-private gap even wider
 Online learning can beat their schools
 “Library” denotes digital collection

74.  Economic growth returns to US
(energy, medical, nanotech vs world)
 17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12
failure)
 Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA
strike)
 Digital tech firewalled from class
(i.e., tv + film)

75. Higher education landscape:
Supplemental rather than
transformative tech
Logistical instead of pedagogical
tech
Academics include tech in old
structures (classes, publication)
Reconfigured to protect IP

76. 18-year-olds were .ppt
proficient by5th grade
Schools <> digital life
They find their parents’
recollections of life before
the web are oddly charming

82. Gaming
world

83. Classroom and courses
 Curriculum content
 Delivery mechanism
 Creating games
Peacemaker,
Impact Games
Revolution (via
Jason Mittell)

84. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds,
Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)
•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies
(Sage, 2008)
•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. Third
Person: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives
(MIT, 2009)

86. Changes in hardware,
software
Part of undergraduate life
Learning content, both
informal and formal
Career paths

87. Higher education landscape:
 Accreditation: drives project-based,
studio-style pedagogy
 Libraries: gaming production,
archiving
 Professional development: distance,
DiY
 Faculty multimedia production is the
norm

88. Elsewhere in the world:
War on IP rages
Nostalgia waves for old
media
Competing storytelling
schools

89.  Most students identified with
one+ game characters in K-12
 Leading game developers are as
well known as movie directors
 Most of their work and school is
gamified

90. 1. Phantom Learning
2. Open world
3. The Lost Decade
4. The Serpent Digests a
Very Large Mammal
5. Renaissance

91. NITLE
http://nitle.org
NITLE prediction markets game
http://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitter
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander