The European Parliament elections will take place in May 2014 and will be followed by the appointment of a new European Commission, setting the tone and direction of EU policy-making for the next five years. Our Brussels office provides insight into the procedural aspects of the European Parliament elections and how the next Commission will be appointed.

1. MEPs per Political Group
274
194
85
58
57
35
31
32
EPP
S&D
ALDE
Greens/EFA
ECR
GUE/NGL
EFD
NI
766
Source:
European Parliament
Group Full name Political orientation Seats*
EPP European People’s
Party
Christian Democrat
Centre-right
274
S&D ProgressiveAlliance
of Socialists and
Democrats
Social Democrat
Centre-left
194
ALDE Alliance of Liberals and
Democrats for Europe
Liberal
Centre
85
Greens/EFA Greens/European Free
Alliance
Green 58
ECR European
Conservative and
Reformists
Conservative 57
GUE/NGL European United Left –
Nordic Green Left
Left wing 35
EFD European Freedom
and Democracy
EU-sceptic
Right wing
31
NI Non-Aligned 32
* 6 March 2014
2014
A year of change for the EU
Introduction
• The European Parliament elections will take place in
May 2014 and will be followed by the appointment
of a new European Commission, setting the tone and
direction of EU policy-making for the next five years.
• The institutions will continue to drive policy and
regulation at regional level for financial services,
environment, energy, infrastructures, data protection,
competition policy, agriculture, foreign policy and
trade. As they establish the regulatory framework for
the whole European region,their influence goes beyond
European borders and will impact all EU trade and
political partners.
• This brochure explains the procedural aspects of the
European Parliament elections and how the next
Commission is appointed, including a timeline with
key events until the end of the year.
• Likely candidates for other top level European positions
such as the President of the European Council are
briefly presented.
A new political climate?
• The key questions determining the cooperation and
political dynamic between the European institutions
overthenextyearsincludecontinuedfiscalconsolidation
policies; international relations and international
trade; and whether more European integration or re-
nationalisation is the way to move forward.
• In addition, the intensity of the debate will be fuelled
by the large number of new Members of the European
Parliament (MEPs) from the far left and far right that
will be focused on overhauling the status quo at all costs.
• Ultimately, the question of who sits behind the steering
wheelwillbedeterminedbythenatureoftherelationship
the next Commission President has with the new
Parliament and the 28 Member States.Traditionally,the
Commission has not succeeded in wrestling the political
initiativefromthenationalgovernments.Acloserpolitical
alignment between the Parliament and the Commission
wouldbenecessarytoreversethislong-termtrend,which
is unlikely given that neither the Christian Democrats
nor the Social Democrats will emerge as clear winners
of the elections.
Composition of the current
European Parliament
The parliamentary groups
explained

2. NI NI/Far right group (++)
GUE/NGL (+)
S&D (+)
ECR (-)
Greens/EFA (-)
ALDE (-)
EPP (--)
+
-
EFD
Number of MEPs per Member State
96
74
73
73
54
51
32
26
21
21
21
21
21
20
18
17
13
13
13
11
11
11
8
8
6
6
6
6
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Spain
Poland
Romania
Netherlands
Belgium
Czech Republic
Greece
Hungary
Portugal
Sweden
Austria
Bulgaria
Denmark
Slovakia
Finland
Ireland
Croatia
Lithuania
Latvia
Slovenia
Estonia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Malta
European Parliament elections
Election Process
• 751 MEPs* to be elected in 28 Member States from 22-25 May
• NumberofseatsallocatedtoMemberStatesrangefrom96(Germany)
to 6 (Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, and Cyprus)
• Most Member States, including the UK, apply proportional
representation systems,and some of them have set a 4-5% threshold
for election
• Several Member States also divide their electorate into regional
constituencies
Projections
• No clear winner will emerge
• The centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-
left Social Democrats (S&D) in a neck and neck race to become the
biggest political group
• Losses for liberals (ALDE) and Greens (Greens/EFA), gains for
European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE/NGL)
• A new political group might emerge on the far right, uniting
nationalist parties like the French Front National, the Dutch Party
of Freedom, and the Austrian Freedom Party
• Closer cooperation between EPP and S&D in informal “grand
coalition” could lead to reduced “kingmaker” role forALDE
• There is a chance that we will see up to 40% turnover of MEPs.This
will have an impact on engaging with the Parliament as it always
takes time for newcomers to establish themselves
European Commissioners
standing for elections
• For the moment, four Commissioners have officially announced that they
will stand for elections: Olli Rehn (Finland), Karel de Gucht (Belgium),
Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia), and Neven Mimica (Croatia)
• Two more are rumoured to consider joining the race:Viviane Reding
(Luxembourg) and Janusz Lewandowski (Poland)
• They will have to take a leave of absence from 17 April until 22-25 May
• Their portfolios will be taken over temporarily by one of their remaining
colleagues
• If elected,a Commissioner would have to stand down from the Commission
in order to take his/her seat in the Parliament
The next European Parliament
Total
751*
*The number of MEPs will be reduced from the current 766 to 751
Potential new political
group on the far right
• Far right parties from several Member States are likely to
form a post-election alliance to leverage their increased size.
The group could include up to 45 MEPs
• The initiative is driven primarily by Marine Le Pen (Front
National, France), Geert Wilders (Partij voor de Vrijheid,
The Netherlands) and Hans-Christian Strache (Freiheitliche
Partei Österreich,Austria)
• Other far right parties expected to join such an alliance
include the Belgian Vlaams Belang, Italian Lega Nord and
Swedish Sverigedemokraterna
• 25 MEPs from at least 7 Member States are necessary to form
a political group in the European Parliament

3. Formation of a new Commission
• Member States propose one Commissioner each
• The Commission President assigns policy portfolios to the
nominees (although this is negotiated with Member States)
• After approval of the new College by the Member States, the
appropriate Parliament Committees hold hearings with the
future Commissioners
• The Parliament has to give its consent to the entire Commission
– it cannot“cherry pick”individual Commissioners.However,in
the past MEPs have used this power to demand the replacement
of individual candidates found lacking in expertise or ethics by
threatening to reject the whole Commission if individuals are
not replaced
• OncetheEuropeanParliamenthasapprovedthenewCommission,
the European Council officially appoints it
• CurrentCommission’stermendson31October2014(extendable)
Appointment of the Commission President
• Nominated by the European Council, which brings together the
Heads of State or Government of the EU’s 28 Member States
• Needs the support of at least 376 MEPs to have the European
Parliament’s confirmation
• LisbonTreaty provisions say that the European Council has to “take
intoaccount”theresultsoftheelectionswhennominatingacandidate
to the European Parliament
• The Parliament and Europe-wide political parties interpreted this as
a call to personalize the election process and nominated their own
main candidates for the Commission Presidency
• Member States intend to retain control of the nomination process
• A political deadlock between Parliament and Member States over
who will become the next Commission President might lead to an
extended term of the current Commission
Potential compromise candidates
• Viable compromise candidates might emerge at a later stage in the negotiation process between Parliament and Member States
The next European Commission
Main candidates for Commission President
• A televised debate between the nominated main candidates is foreseen for 15 May, organised by the European Broadcasting Union
Christine Lagarde
France, EPP
IMF Managing Director
Jyrki Katainen
Finland, EPP
Prime Minister
Enda Kenny
Ireland, EPP
Prime Minister
HelleThorning-
Schmidt
Denmark, S&D
Prime Minister
Enrico Letta
Italy, S&D
Former Prime Minister
Pascal Lamy
France, S&D
FormerWTO
Director-General
Martin Schulz
Germany, S&D
President of the
European Parliament
GuyVerhofstadt
Belgium,ALDE
President ALDE Group
Jean-Claude
Juncker
Luxembourg, EPP
Former Prime Minister
Ska Keller
Germany, Greens/EFA
MEP
José Bové
France, Greens/EFA
MEP
AlexisTsipras
Greece, GUE/NGL
Greek MP
1
2

4. High Representative
of the Union for
Foreign Affairs and
Security
President of the
European Council
(Possible) Permanent
President of the
Eurogroup
Contact Brunswick Brussels
Currently
Catherine Ashton
UK, S&D
HermanVan Rompuy
Belgium, EPP
Frans Timmermans
The Netherlands, S&D
Foreign Minister
Radoslaw Sikorski
Poland, EPP
Foreign Minister
Carl Bildt
Sweden,ALDE
Foreign Minister
Anders Fogh
Rasmussen
Denmark,ALDE
NATO Secretary General
Jean-Claude Juncker
Belgium, EPP
Former Prime Minister
Fredrik Reinfeldt
Sweden, EPP
Prime Minister
Anders Fogh
Rasmussen
Denmark,ALDE
NATO Secretary General
Dalia Grybauskaitė
Lithuania, EPP
President
Potential Candidates
Candidates for other high level positions to be filled in 2014
General notes
• Member States try to achieve a balanced representation between
political orientation,gender,and geographical provenance when
filling such positions
• It is considered an unwritten rule that at least some high level
positions will go to a woman and to politicians from the newer
Member States in Central and Eastern Europe
Address
27Avenue DesArts
1040 Brussels
Belgium
Tel.+32 2 235 6510
Fax+32 2 235 6522
Email
brusselsoffice@brunswickgroup.com
Jeroen Dijsselbloem
The Netherlands, S&D
Pierre Moscovici
France, S&D
Minister of Finance
President of the
European Parliament
Martin Schulz
Germany, S&D
Viviane Reding
Luxembourg, EPP
European Commissioner
Olli Rehn
Finland,ALDE
European Commissioner
NATO Secretary
General
Anders Fogh
Rasmussen
Denmark,ALDE
Liam Fox
UK, ECR
Former Secretary of
State for Defence
Thomas de Maizière
Germany, EPP
Federal Minister of the
Interior
Pieter de Crem
Belgium, EPP
Minister of Defence
Franco Frattini
Italy, EPP
Former Minister of
Foreign Affairs
Timeline until the end of 2014
April May June July August September October November December
14-17/4
Last Plenary
15/5
Televised
debate of main
candidates
14-17/7
EP vote on
Commission
President
(expected)
30/11
End of Van
Rompuy’s term as
European Council
President
26-27/6
European
Council Summit
– Nomination of
new Commission
President
27/5
EP Post-Electoral
Meeting
July-August
Nomination of
new College of
Commissioners
September-October
EP hearings
with proposed
Commissioners
31/10
End of term
for Barroso
Commission
(extendable)
European Parliament
European Council
European Commission
22-25/5
European
Elections
27/5
European Council
Post-Electoral
Meeting