Presentation at 4G Wireless Evolution Conference Feb 2011.

1. Over
the
Top
Brough
Turner

2. Why
Over
the
Top
is
the
Future
of
Communica7on
Brough
Turner
Founder,
netBlazr.com

3. • "Internet
protocol
networks
are
like
Pac
Man.
Eventually
they
will
eat
everything.”
– Hossein
Eslambolchi,
AT&T's
CTO,
2003
• "Anyone
who
relies
on
the
fact
that
they
own
a
scarce
distribu7on
resource
is
going
to
face
ten
years
of
turmoil.”
– Paul
Sagan,
chief
execuHve
of
Akamai,
2007
• "If
a
customer
likes
it,
it
doesn't
maIer
what
it
does
to
your
economics
–
it's
going
to
happen.”
– Jack
Cassidy,
CEO
of
CincinnaH
Bell,
2008

4. PredicHons
vs.
Outcomes
• 1-­‐3
year
predicHons
usually
over
enthusiasHc
– Takes
longer
or
never
happens
…
• Actual
outcomes
more
sweeping
than
expected
– But
decades
perspecHve

5. PredicHons
vs.
Outcomes
• 1-­‐3
year
predicHons
usually
over
enthusiasHc
– Takes
longer
or
never
happens
…
• Actual
outcomes
more
sweeping
than
expected
– But
decades
perspecHve
Hype

6. PredicHons
vs.
Outcomes
• 1-­‐3
year
predicHons
usually
over
enthusiasHc
– Takes
longer
or
never
happens
…
• Actual
outcomes
more
sweeping
than
expected
– But
decades
perspecHve
AdopHon

7.
NegaHve
Returns
(2000-­‐2009)
hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-­‐broadband-­‐networks-­‐returns-­‐on-­‐invested-­‐capital-­‐sHnk

8.
NegaHve
Returns
(2000-­‐2009)
hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-­‐broadband-­‐networks-­‐returns-­‐on-­‐invested-­‐capital-­‐sHnk

9. Ne[lix
Performance
on
Top
US
Networks

10. Data
Rates
• TwiWer:
Negligible
• Facebook:
Tiny
(except
video)
• Skype
audio:
6-­‐40
Kbps
*
• Ne[lix
SD
Video:
500,
1000
&
1500
Kbps
**
• Ne[lix
HD
Video:
2600
&
3800
Kbps
**
*
SILK
wideband
audio
coder
**
VC1
Advanced
Profile
video
coder

11. Latency
Not
Important

13. Latency
is
Important
ConversaHon,
even
with
a
voice
mail
system,
requires
low
latency
hWp://www.flickr.com/photos/fadderuri/2715777726/

14. Mouth-­‐to-­‐Ear
delay

15. Voice
QoS
1. Dedicated
wires
=
20th
century
approach
– Cable
&
FiOS
use
separate
logical
path
today
2. Simple
prioriHes
– Mobile
telephony
(2G-­‐
&
3G-­‐specific
approaches)
– Enterprise
IP-­‐PBXs
(via
DiffServ
or
802.1p)
3. Extra
bandwidth,
i.e.
“headroom”
– Vonage,
etc.
– Skype

16. Mobile
download
bandwidth
Akamai
State
of
the
Internet
Report
3Q
2010

17. Voice
on
4G
• LTE
is
all-­‐IP:
Voice
services
a
work-­‐in-­‐progress
1. Fallback
to
3G
voice
2. Leverage
IMS
/
“One
voice”
/
VoLTE
(not
VoLGA)
• 4-­‐6
years
for
widespread
4G
voice
services
based
on
carrier-­‐provided
QoS

18. Over-­‐the-­‐Top
• Video

Social
– Happening
now
–
Game
over
– Happening
fast
!
• Voice
– Happening
now
– TransiHoning
market-­‐by-­‐market,
as
bandwidth
headroom
becomes
available.
– Over-­‐the-­‐top
voice
on
4G
is
a
certainty

19. Over
the
Top
is
the
Future
of
Communica7on
Thank
you
Brough
Turner
brough@netBlazr.com