Stock Market Brief Deck for "this does not happen often".pdf
Achieving financial longevity
1. Protect Your Principal - Retain Your GainsMitigate Tax - Guarantee Your Income Our Goal To create a substantial, sustainable, structural advantage for your financial portfolio.
2. Disclosure and Disclaimer Any yield or return figures or examples appearing in or referred to in this presentation, are for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended to represent, predict or guarantee the future or past performance of any financial product. Brian Singer is not licensed to render any advice about purchasing, selling, liquidating, surrendering, replacing, or withdrawing securities; including tax consequences and any possible related fees or charges associated with such securities transactions. Singer Financial Group 480 E Northfield Dr– Suite 300 Brownsburg, IN 46112 317-852-9153 www.singerfinancialgroup.com Email: bsinger@singerfinancialgroup.com
3. FINANCIAL NEWS ALERT! If what you believed to be true about your money wasn’t, when would you want to know??
4.
5. Institutions, mutual fund managers, hedge fund managers, stock brokers, investment bankers (what we call loosely, Wall Street)“Wall Street has become a casino with the only winners being the croupiers—the traders, the brokers, the investment bankers, and the money managers who facilitate the trades [bets]. Wall Street creates a whole lot of ‘innovation’ products that are designed to enrich the marketers and not the buyers, and that’s what the industry is all about. There is too much cost in this industry and not nearly enough value; too much speculation and too much complexity.”
6. “Entrepreneurs or international conglomerateurs, or large financial institutions buy or create mutual fund management companies to create a return on their own capital. It's capitalism at work, where the rewards tend to go to the managers rather than the investors”. The average mutual fund returns 2% less per year than the stock market returns in general. So, what are the chances of an investment advisor picking the winning funds for his/her client? Mutual fund investors are hit with annual management fees as well as 12b-1 “marketing” fees ranging from .25 to 1.00%. Every time a mutual fund manager sells a stock at a profit, you may get hit with the tax bill, even if the fund or your account lost money for the year. Most mutual fund stock positions can represent no more than 5% of the entire portfolio; therefore when a stock starts to soar, the manager has to sell the “winners”, creating capital gains taxes for investors whether you’ve been invested for years or days. When another investor wants to bail out of your fund, the cash redemption comes from cash on hand and the sale of stocks. Cash on hand drives down performance, while the sell off of stocks increases the tax bill of those investors who stay in the fund. A dollar set aside for redemption requests is a dollar not invested.
7. Dec 7, 2010 Paul Farrell, PhD has been a MW columnist since 1997 and has published more than 1,400 columns plus nine books. Previously he was an investment banker with Morgan Stanley; Executive Vice President of the Financial News Network; and head of the Crisis Management Group. “Do not buy stocks. Not for retirement. Not in the coming decade. Don’t! Huge risks!” Peter Morici, former chief economist at the International Trade Commission: America’s divided into two stock markets: one for Wall Street’s rich insiders, another for Main Street’s suckers. (FT – 12-17-10) FBI arrests 4 people in connection with its long-running investigation into insider trading on Wall Street. New ‘big short’ dead ahead: Derivatives con game will crash again. In a Bloomberg story, “Big Short” author Michael Lewis says; WS insiders have no intention of ceasing their prop trading, They are merely disguising the activity, by giving it some other name. Morici goes on to say, J.P.M. and BoA went through the entire third quarter without a negative trading day, no losing days on proprietary trades. Unless you believe in perfection, something stinks…. If someone is winning all the time, then someone else is losing. That’s the ordinary investor. Stocks have become a rigged game. Farrell – Stocks are a sucker bet at Wall Street’s rigged casino. Buy stocks and lose. In fact, you’ll probably lose more that 20% when the third meltdown of the 21st century explodes. Bigger losses than in 2000 and 2008 combined.
11. Real Historical Returns S&P 500 Dow Jones 40 Year – 6.65% 20 Year – 7.27% 15 Year – 5.15% 10 Year – 1.85% 5 Year - 1.32% 40 Year – 6.58% 20 Year – 7.34% 15 Year – 4.66% 10 Year – 0.98% 5 Year - -0.25% * Source: financial.yahoo.com, as of 3/20/2011. Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
12. Our financial system is complex, complicated, inter-connected, and fragile. You haven’t seen your last “Crisis”. “The Crisis” Who or what can we blame?
13. Wall Street’s financial alchemy fueled the financial meltdown. Synthetic CDOs spread the sub-prime mortgage problem to thousands of institutions that bought “fantasy” financial derivatives based on those mortgages. It’s possible we would have avoided the economic meltdown were it not for synthetic derivatives that also crashed along with housing prices.
14. 1) Banks create CDO’s from RMBS2) Banks often retain the “Super Senior” (highest rated) top tranche3) The bottom portion “Equity” is often sold off to hedge funds, pension funds, other banks4) The middle portion or “Mezzanine” often goes into new CDOs The main buyers of those new CDOs are often the same banks A CDS would pay off as these CDOs defaulted
15.
16. 09/15/08–BoA buys Merrill Lynch for $50 billion. For the previous four quarters, ML has posted losses totaling $17 billion.
19. 09/21/08 – The Federal Reserve Board approves applications of investment banking companies Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanleytobecome bank holding companies.
22. In a financial collapse, it is likely that the Life Insurance Industry would be second only to the U.S. Government to fold. The Five Pillars of Safety: 1. Legal Reserve System (solvency ratio) 2. State Guaranty Funds 3. Reinsurance 4. Holding companies 5. Strict regulatory investment practices Reality Check!!
23. Center for Retirement Research at Boston College – October 2010 Report The National Retirement Risk Index (NRRI) (Measures the share of American households ‘at risk’ of being unable to maintain their pre-retirement standard of living in retirement) To achieve real security in retirement, households need to get as much as possible out of their nesteggs in the drawdown period. Annuities guarantee that households do not outlive their money. Aninflation-indexed annuityprotects a household’s purchasing power. Annuities provide more monthly income than other approaches, such as the “4-percent rule” or living off the interest on assets.
24. The Ultimate Roth StrategyCan you name a principal protected asset class that beats this over the last 1, 3, 5, or 10 years? Tax free?!?! Index Growth & Index Credits for Month Ending 02/28/2011 Above data is for illustration only, and does not guarantee future or past performance
25. What’s luck have to do with it? What if you retire at the wrong time?!?Consider the following hypothetical “Sequence of Returns” example: John and Bob both had the same $100,000 when they retired and planned to withdraw the same 5% amount, with annual adjustments for inflation.
28. The "probability of retirement ruin" when drawing 5% on a 50% equity portfolio is about 89%.
29.
30. 1210 Year 1 $110,000 1100 1000 Year 4 $133,100 660 Year 3 $121,000 What goes up doesn’t have to come down!What if every year the market went down, you could demand your money back, and then reinvest at the lower price?How an FIA functions Year 2 $121,000 Day 1 $100,000 600
31. How Do They Do It? Finsurance "It's the triumph of financial engineering” Initial Premium Deposit 10% 85% 5% Spread Insurance Company expenses & PROFIT Minimum Contract Value The Insurance Co purchases T-bills & investment grade bonds to provide the principal guarantees in the FIA contract. Index Return Insurers purchase Call Options on a market index, such as the S&P 500 (at a negotiated price due to the high volume). When the index value is higher at the expiration of the strategy term, market linked interest is credited to the FIA. If the index price is lower at expiration, the option expires with no negative impact to the Insurance Co or FIA owner. Heads I win! Tails I don’t lose!
32. “We have got to have a fortress balance sheet! Every five years or so…something bad will happen.” Jamie Dimon– CEO , JPMC A Fortress Balance Sheet Five Keys To Financial Longevity 1) Protect your money – lock out losses 2) Grow your money – lock in gains 3) Turbo-charge the growth 4) Re-insure the growth 5) Mitigate the tax Finsuranceprovides a substantial, sustainable, structural advantage for your financial portfolio
33. The need for…. “Guarantees” and “Safety” “Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.” – Warren Buffett Eight critical lessons from the crisis…. Be ready for the next one – “Fortress Balance Sheet” – you haven’t seen your last serious financial crisis. Choose to know.Be your own lifeguard! Know that hubris kills judgment. Volatility doesn’t have to be a bad word, IF you have a strategy/process to capture the good market volatility and avoid the bad. Your retirement plan must include a personal pension plan that will protect your principal, retain your gains, and guarantee your income. Identify someone or something you can put your faith in, then trust, but verify. Validate and then act! Change isn’t always better, but better always means change. Risks, both hidden & disclosed, are an inherent component of any financial instrument or advice offered through Wall Street. Use heads I win, tails I don’t lose strategies! Protect Your Principal – Retain Your Gains – Guarantee Your Income
37. Does a Fortress Balance Sheetconcept make sense to you?Protect Your Principal – Retain Your Gains – Guarantee Your Income A properly designed ABCPlan will assure you never lose money, and never run out of money in retirement! Implement your planwith someone you can trust!
38. We help successful people and their families, enjoy the journey to, and through retirement!Email bsinger@singerfinancialgroup.com or call 317-852-9153 www.singerfinancialgroup.com