Judging the Relevance and worth of ideas part 2.pptx
5c long tail epooley pdf
1. 22-10-2009
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Chris Anderson
Editor en Jefe, Revista Wired
Distribución estadística donde una amplia
frecuencia de población (aprox. 20%) es seguida
b f ( b l d) d lpor una baja frecuencia (o baja amplitud) de la
población que disminuye gradualmente.
En otras palabras, el 20% de las acciones explican
el 80% de los resultados. La sugerencia es
centrarse en ese 20%.
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Pero, en muchos casos, los acontecimientos
de baja frecuencia o escasa amplitudj p
pueden abarcar la mayor parte del gráfico.
A esto se le llama Larga Cola, la parte
amarillaamarilla del gráfico.
Vender MENOS de MAS
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En 1988, un montañista Británico, Joe Simpson
escribió el libro Tocando el Vacío, contando la
historia de su casi muerte en Los Andeshistoria de su casi muerte en Los Andes.
Recibió excelentes críticas, pero un éxito
moderado y fue olvidado.
10 años después, Jon Krakauer escribió Mal de
Altura, otro libro acerca de tragedias sobre
escalado de montañas, que se convirtió en un
best-seller. Repentinamente Tocando el Vacío
comenzó a vender nuevamente.
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Recomendaciones de libros similares en Amazon.
Consecuencias:
La editorial apuró una nueva edición para satisfacer la
demanda.demanda.
Las librerías comenzaron a promocionarlo cerca del
libro Mal de Altura, y las ventas aumentaron aún más.
14 semanas en las listas de más vendidos del New York
Times.
El 2003, IFC Films estrenó un docudrama sobre la
historia críticamente aclamada.
Tocando el Vacío vende el doble que Mal de Altura.
Amazon creó el fenómeno de Tocando el Vacío al
combinar el espacio infinito de la plataforma con
la información a tiempo real sobre tendencias de
compra y opinión pública.
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La gente está adentrándose más a los
catálogos de sitios como Netflix, iTunes Store
A l li d í ly Amazon.com, a sus largas listas de títulos
disponibles, más allá de los ofrecidos, en
estanterías, en Blockbuster Video, Tower
Records, y Barnes & Noble.
Las ventas de los productos menos masivos
(“fracasos”), en su totalidad logran producir
d l di i ñígrandes ventas a las distintas compañías que
mantienen sus negocios en plataformas
digitales, de grandes canales de distribución.
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Chris Anderson started this with an article in Wired
about two years ago. He claimed that half the booksy g
sold at Amazon were obscure books not offered in
any conventional bookstore. (He’s backed off to
perhaps 25%)
Thus, he argues, the Internet is encouraging an
enormous amount of specialized creativity fore o ous a ou t o spec a ed c eat ty o
specialized interests.
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Some kinds of media don’t lend themselves to mass
production. Poetry reading and lectures, for example,
are pretty restricted in the number of people who can
attend a performance.
On the other extreme is short-wave radio, which can
reach large parts of the planet. Enormous numbers of
people could listen at once.
If there are large economies of scale – if making many
copies isn’t as expensive (per copy) as making a few,
then economics encourages a few “blockbusters”. For
l di i l f f lexample, radio is an example of economy of scale;
the radio station incurs no additional cost when more
people listen to it.
And if there are high startup costs – if it is difficult for
somebody to get into the business – that also
f k t d Y ’tencourages a few mass-market producers. You can’t
easily start a new radio station because you need an
FCC license.
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-In the 18th century, with type held in wooden forms
and printed on wooden presses by hand, it was hard
to make more than 300-500 copies in a single press
S b k d d i trun. So books and newspapers appeared in great
variety and were often distributed only locally.
-
- In the 19th century, steam presses, iron presses, and
machine-made paper meant that you could have
press runs of tens of thousands of copies.
-
- Nowadays, you can hardly afford to turn on a real
binding machine unless you have 2,000 copies to put
through it, and every airport bookstall has the same
John Grisham and Danielle Steel novels.
Even if you ought to print many copies, you can
choose whether to focus on books that will sell them
i kl th l t A di t Jquickly or over the long term. According to Jason
Epstein (founder of Anchor Books, and thus inventor
of trade paperbacks), until the 1970s book publishers
focused on the backlist potential of a new book:
would it sell for many years?
That meant returns were not a problem: the copies
would eventually sell But in the 1970s perhaps as awould eventually sell. But in the 1970s, perhaps as a
function of rising interest rates, income tax law
changes, and buyouts of publishers, the book
business changed to emphasize best-sellers that
would sell quickly.
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Well, there are enormous economies of scale. It’s
almost free to have more people access your webp p y
page (not quite true, since if the volume gets high
enough you need more servers and your ISP charges
you more, but it’s pretty cheap).
But there are no startup costs. Anybody can get a
website and start serving up pages.g p p g
So the Internet could go either way, and some years
ago I would ask this question and say I didn’t know
the answer.
Amazon, as part of its competition with Barnes &
Noble, tries to advertise how many books it has for
sale. It scrounges through every publisher it can find,g g y p ,
plus every out of print book it can find, and claims to
sell more than 5,000,000 books.
No physical bookstore, realistically, can sell more
than about 100,000 books. The whole town of Hay-
on-Wye has something like 1,000,000 books for sale.y g , ,
Chris’ discovery: perhaps ¼ of the books sold by
Amazon are not in the top 100,000; and would thus
not be sold by any “brick-and-mortar” bookstore.
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The Internet is going for many diverse sources, rather
than a few “blockbusters” (a somewhat unfortunate
term; it derives from a bomb used by the RAF in
World War II, which literally destroyed an entire block
of houses).
It thus represents a chance for obscure voices,
whether people who have interests in the railway
history of Alberta or your local teenagers starting a
rock band, to find the few people who want to listen
to them and distribute their work.
In the 1950s, at its peak, 70% of American
households would be tuned into an episodeouse o ds ou d be tu ed to a ep sode
of “I Love Lucy”.
Today the top show (CSI: somewhere or
other) has an audience share of about 18%.
As recently as 15 years ago, that wouldn’t
have made the top ten.have made the top ten.
Instead, people watch selections from the
500 cable channels we now have, or from
YouTube.
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The biggest music retailer in the
United States is Wal-Mart, and they sell
2 400 CD i h h 40 000some 2,400 CDs, with perhaps 40,000
tracks on them.
iTunes has 2 M tracks – P2P has
perhaps 9M - there are probably 25M
tracks in total 40% of Rhapsody salestracks in total. 40% of Rhapsody sales
are beyond the first 40,000. People
are, in aggregate, listening to a lot
more than top-40; even though top-
40 is all you can find on the radio or in
Wal-Mart.
Blockbuster Video gets some 90% of its
rentals from the new theatrical releases.
Netflix offers 40,000 DVDs; and its sales
are 30% new releases and 70% others.
They claim that recommendationsThey claim that recommendations,
searching, and other techniques encourage
people to expand their choices in movies.
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YouTube is now seeing 100M downloads a day. Its
viewership is comparable to a network.
Counterargument: if each download is watched for a
minute or so, that’s 2 M hours of watching; ordinary
TV gets 500 times that much attention.
Personally I find it hard to see the difference betweeny
YouTube and “Amazing Home Videos”. But YouTube is
growing, and network TV is dropping.
Competition between Amazon and Barnes and Noble
has greatly increased the number of books you can
readily purchased; Amazon now has 5M books for
sale and Abebooks has 45M.
There are now over 80,000 publishers in the US and
they publish more than 200,000 books per year. Both
numbers are rising rapidly as the low-grade books
can find an audience.
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Plataforma digital: Costos de almacenaje e
inventarios son marginales, resulta rentableg ,
vender elementos poco populares.
No hay costos de “estanterías”. No es
necesario un estante o vitrina para
promocionar un producto. Además, los
catálogos se pueden ver desde cualquier
parte del mundoparte del mundo.
Marketing: Existen muchas herramientas
digitales para promocionar productos:g p p p
Web blogs, podcasting y wikis: recomendaciones
Etiquetados Sociales (tags): categorización
Redes sociales: publicidad, “boca a boca”
Sindicación de contenidos (RSS): todo en una
página.
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TAMAÑOS DE
CATALOGO POR
INDUSTRIA
ONLINE OFFLINE
MUSICA 8.000.000 40.000
LIBROS 2.300.000 130.000
PELICULAS 80 000 70 000PELICULAS 80.000 70.000
OJO: Todas compiten con todas!!!
Google: Debido a que existen búsquedas
personalizadas, hay publicidad enfocada parap , y p p
cada tipo de búsqueda.
Banca: Existe una gran variedad de productos
y servicios (préstamos, créditos, seguros,
fondos de inversión, planes de pensiones,
etc.), con cientos de variaciones, es decir, una
larga cola.
22. 22-10-2009
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“Over 2775.261837 megabytes (and counting) of free
storage so you'll never need to delete another message”
(Remember “Your mailbox is full”? What
was that about?)
30. 22-10-2009
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Scarcity Abundance
ROI Memo We’ll figure it
out
y
Scarcity Abundance
“Everything is
forbidden
unless it is
“Everything is
permitted
unless it is
y
permitted” forbidden”
