Presentation by Joseph Krug from Augur at Bitcoin Wednesday in Amsterdam on 4 March, 2015. See a video of the presentation here: http://www.bitcoinwednesday.com/augur-video/

1. Joseph Krug
@AugurProject
www.augur.net
Graphics assorted CC images — PM outcome diagrams provided by Paul
Sztorc

5. Prediction Market: a market where you can buy and sell
predictions
Price of event: $0.42
=
42% chance of the event happening!

6. Prediction Markets

8. PM Types

10. AFTER THE EVENT: REPORTING
User hashes
report and
broadcasts
Reporting
Quorum
reached
Reports
decrypted
Consensus
Reputation
updates &
cash payouts
Market
opens
Betting
Event(s)
mature
Event
happens!
Event included
in
market
Event
created
BEFORE THE EVENT: BETTING / FORECASTING
Augur Overview

11. Determining Outcomes of Events (Reputation)
Intrade Fees go to
Intrade
Centralized third
party (InTrade)
No punishment
for manipulation
Half the fees go
to reporters
(reputation
holders) – other
half to market
creators (anyone
can create a
market)
Fully
Decentralized
Lose reputation
if you lie

12. Prototype

18. Pay for oracle use
P2P Wagers
Non-PM Applications

19. Potential Applications
Or… Any question you can think of