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War on Terror

      UNITED STATES’ “WOT”
Soviet war: Rise of a Nation
         Entire Afghan nation rose in arms




6 millions migrated to Pakistan and Iran, clearing the
                  battle field for war
Ideological Ground
• Soviets were alien troops not
  knowing local
  language, culture, people, te
  rrain or history
• Soviets were not willing to
  die for their cause

• Resistance had high moral
  ground considered dying a
  noble cause!
War Support
• Mujahedeen received
  international diplomatic and
  political support
    US, China, Saudi
      Arabia, Pakistan, UN
• Hundreds of Base areas and     • Local Afghan
  training camps in Pakistan       government acted
• Non-stop supply of               as collaborators to
  fresh fighters from              Soviets but
  refugees and Muslim              remained unreliable
  groups                           ally often betraying
Logistical Support

• Massive uninterrupted
  logistical, weapons and ammo
  supplies into Afghanistan
• ISI conducted the entire
  operation - “Death by a
  thousand cuts” strategy!
                                 • SAM’s and ATGM’s
                                   played a decisive role in
                                   Soviet defeat in later
                                   years – between 1986
                                   to 1988
Breakup of Soviet Empire
Disastrous campaign
that ended with
the disintegration of
this former Communist

super power !
Invasion: A Blunder of Historic Proportions
Soviet Union lost DURING THIS ABORTIVE CAMPAIGN:
14,453+ combat soldiers        1979 officers
10 YEARS OF DEFEAT

USSR LOST :
11,369 cargo and fuel Tanker
          .

Trucks and 147 Tanks
10 YEARS OF DEFEAT

USSR LOST :
        .
 333 helicopters   1315 APCs
 114 Aircrafts     433 Artillery Guns
US / NATO : Afghan War
• The resistance is from Pashtun population only
  – Taliban, Hekmatyar, Haqqani.
• No :
  – mass migration of population
  – international support and recognition
    of anti-coalition resistance militia (ACM)!
  – training camps and base areas for
    resistance in Pakistan
  – weapons, ammunition or logistical
    supply line from Pakistan
  – regular supply of fresh fighters from Pakistan as resistance is mostly based
    inside Afghanistan
US / NATO : Afghan War
• US/NATO :
   – remains foreign forces, alien to local
     culture, language and terrain
   – also relying on local collaborators who
     remain unreliable and weak
   – forces on weak moral ground, not willing
     to die for the cause
   – ACM remain on high moral ground,
     fighting to liberate their lands, willing to
     take risk and die!
• ISI not supporting or organizing
  the resistance
• Resistance does not have SAM’s
  or ATGM’s !
US / NATO : Afghan War
                                      No clear strategy within
                                         occupation forces




• Still, resistance is going on for
  10 years and still going strong!
• Cost of war in men and
  material rising exponentially
  for the occupation!
T T P: Hallmarks

• Ideologically different from
  ACM in Afghanistan
• Does not fight US/NATO but
  wages war against state of
  Pakistan!                      • Fully
                                   armed, equipped, financially
                                   strong insurgency with base
                                   areas in Afghanistan
                                 • Supply route of
                                   weapons, explosives, commu
                                   nication equipment and
                                   fighters remain open from
                                   Afghanistan
T T P : Hallmarks
• Fighting style, weapons, strategy, terrain and
  fighters are similar within Afghan ACM and TTP
• The sponsors and backers of TTP are based in
  Afghanistan – Indian RAW or US CIA?
                               • Most ruthless in the world – deploying
                                 suicide bombers as strategic weapon
                               • Thousands of suicide bombings, IED’s and
                                 attacks against forces, civilians and law
                                 enforcement agencies in last 4 years alone

• Over 40,000 civilians killed in last 4 years -
 10,000 soldiers and officers killed or wounded
• High intensity asymmetric war in urban environment
 continues against TTP in FATA and mainland
T T P : Pak Army Operations
• Area as big as England        almost 3                  • Army liberating its own
  – hilly, mountainous          million, supportive of      home ground against
  and                           army and anti-TTP           an unpopular terrorist
  valleys, inaccessible, id   • The entire population       group and was willing
  eal for guerilla warfare      migrated out of the         to fight and die for the
  against regular army          valley, clearing the        cause. Moral was
                                battle field allowing the   high, officers and men
• Enemy was well dug in                                     volunteered for
                                army to operate freely!
  mountains, well                                           dangerous operations.
  equipped and had local
  knowledge. Almost
  25,000 fully armed
  fighters with the
  enemy and had taken
                         • Army is local to the
  over the entire
                           country, understands
  valley, passes, cities
                           language, culture, terra
  and strategic hilltops
                           in, people and tactics
• Local population         of the fighters
T T P : Pak Army Operation
• Enemy and objective was clearly defined. No strategic or tactical confusions!
• Army willing to deploy daring unconventional tactics – largest heliborne landing
in Asia ever of 4000 Special forces deep into the mountains, behind enemy lines
surprised the insurgency. The General officer led the landing himself in terrorist
infested mountains!




• The area was cleared in less than two months in a classic counter insurgency
  operation which is now stuff of the legends and movies are being made on it!
• The entire population of 3 million moved back into the valley immediately after
  the operation and now Swat is cleared and being rebuilt rapidly
• The most successful counter insurgency operation ever in the world
US / NATO: Occupation forces
• Occupation force – hated by insurgency   • Not willing to die. Emphasis is on survival
 and common man alike. Latest riots in     and use of technology, causing more
 Mazaar Shareef against UN are ample       collateral damage making them more
 example                                   unpopular!
• Relying on unreliable Afghans who have • Barking up the wrong tree
 no roots in population                   – wrong threat analysis
• Occupation forces alien to local        – blaming Pakistan for their failures instead
 language, culture, tribes and terrain    of addressing the issues inside Afghanistan
 fighting a war without objectives, goals – North Waziristan has nothing to do with
 and no high moral ground. Morale is      wars in Kandahar or Helmand, the fiercest
 lowest                                   battlefields
US / NATO: Burning Logistics
• War Cost crippling the economy at home
• NATO supplies remain vulnerable in
  Pakistan – the weakest and most
  vulnerable link in the logistical support
• Taliban remain flushed with money as
  NATO and drug lords pays them for safe
  transit of convoys and drug
  consignments. Weapons and
  ammo come from robbing NATO
  supplies, Afghan army pilferage,
  and open black market in tribal
  areas and central Asia and Iran
US / NATO Fate : Defeat
• All signs are that the fate of the
  present occupation forces
  would be identical to Soviets
• Soviet Union saw the defeat too
  late, signed the Geneva accord
  and tried to find an exit but the
  staggering cost of the war
  destroyed the Soviet empire
• Present occupation forces are
  still not negotiating an exit, still
  feel they can win the war and
  have still not learnt from the 10
  years of this present conflict
US / NATO Fate : Defeat
• Pashtun resistance remains         • Pakistan or the Pakistani tribals
  decentralized and dispersed in       are still not supporting the
  various separate groups in           Pashtun resistance nor providing
  regions from Kunar in north East     any base areas or supplies but
  to Helmend in south East, with       things can change in future if
  pockets all over the country –       Pashtuns are persecuted in
  making it almost impossible to       Afghanistan or TTP insurgency
  strike at the centre of gravity or   continue to get support from
  to decapitate the resistance         Afghanistan. Relations between
                                       ISI and CIA are most tense and
                                       almost at rock bottom these
                                       days.
US / NATO Fate : Defeat
• In desperation, force is being used
  more indiscriminately causing more
  and more civilian casualties – creating
  more hatred even within non-Pashtun
  groups. All the signs are that Tajik and
  Uzbek groups would also join the
  resistance in Northern regions

• Resistance is trying to get SAM’s.
  Russian black market or Iran or even
  China could provide. That would be a
  game changer!

• Occupation forces should work on a
  serious exit plan and start to talk with
  the Pashtun resistance

• The Karzai regime has no future

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War on terror - BrassTacks Presentation

  • 1. War on Terror UNITED STATES’ “WOT”
  • 2. Soviet war: Rise of a Nation Entire Afghan nation rose in arms 6 millions migrated to Pakistan and Iran, clearing the battle field for war
  • 3. Ideological Ground • Soviets were alien troops not knowing local language, culture, people, te rrain or history • Soviets were not willing to die for their cause • Resistance had high moral ground considered dying a noble cause!
  • 4. War Support • Mujahedeen received international diplomatic and political support  US, China, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, UN • Hundreds of Base areas and • Local Afghan training camps in Pakistan government acted • Non-stop supply of as collaborators to fresh fighters from Soviets but refugees and Muslim remained unreliable groups ally often betraying
  • 5. Logistical Support • Massive uninterrupted logistical, weapons and ammo supplies into Afghanistan • ISI conducted the entire operation - “Death by a thousand cuts” strategy! • SAM’s and ATGM’s played a decisive role in Soviet defeat in later years – between 1986 to 1988
  • 6. Breakup of Soviet Empire Disastrous campaign that ended with the disintegration of this former Communist super power !
  • 7. Invasion: A Blunder of Historic Proportions Soviet Union lost DURING THIS ABORTIVE CAMPAIGN: 14,453+ combat soldiers 1979 officers
  • 8. 10 YEARS OF DEFEAT USSR LOST : 11,369 cargo and fuel Tanker . Trucks and 147 Tanks
  • 9. 10 YEARS OF DEFEAT USSR LOST : . 333 helicopters 1315 APCs 114 Aircrafts 433 Artillery Guns
  • 10. US / NATO : Afghan War • The resistance is from Pashtun population only – Taliban, Hekmatyar, Haqqani. • No : – mass migration of population – international support and recognition of anti-coalition resistance militia (ACM)! – training camps and base areas for resistance in Pakistan – weapons, ammunition or logistical supply line from Pakistan – regular supply of fresh fighters from Pakistan as resistance is mostly based inside Afghanistan
  • 11. US / NATO : Afghan War • US/NATO : – remains foreign forces, alien to local culture, language and terrain – also relying on local collaborators who remain unreliable and weak – forces on weak moral ground, not willing to die for the cause – ACM remain on high moral ground, fighting to liberate their lands, willing to take risk and die! • ISI not supporting or organizing the resistance • Resistance does not have SAM’s or ATGM’s !
  • 12. US / NATO : Afghan War No clear strategy within occupation forces • Still, resistance is going on for 10 years and still going strong! • Cost of war in men and material rising exponentially for the occupation!
  • 13. T T P: Hallmarks • Ideologically different from ACM in Afghanistan • Does not fight US/NATO but wages war against state of Pakistan! • Fully armed, equipped, financially strong insurgency with base areas in Afghanistan • Supply route of weapons, explosives, commu nication equipment and fighters remain open from Afghanistan
  • 14. T T P : Hallmarks • Fighting style, weapons, strategy, terrain and fighters are similar within Afghan ACM and TTP • The sponsors and backers of TTP are based in Afghanistan – Indian RAW or US CIA? • Most ruthless in the world – deploying suicide bombers as strategic weapon • Thousands of suicide bombings, IED’s and attacks against forces, civilians and law enforcement agencies in last 4 years alone • Over 40,000 civilians killed in last 4 years - 10,000 soldiers and officers killed or wounded • High intensity asymmetric war in urban environment continues against TTP in FATA and mainland
  • 15. T T P : Pak Army Operations • Area as big as England almost 3 • Army liberating its own – hilly, mountainous million, supportive of home ground against and army and anti-TTP an unpopular terrorist valleys, inaccessible, id • The entire population group and was willing eal for guerilla warfare migrated out of the to fight and die for the against regular army valley, clearing the cause. Moral was battle field allowing the high, officers and men • Enemy was well dug in volunteered for army to operate freely! mountains, well dangerous operations. equipped and had local knowledge. Almost 25,000 fully armed fighters with the enemy and had taken • Army is local to the over the entire country, understands valley, passes, cities language, culture, terra and strategic hilltops in, people and tactics • Local population of the fighters
  • 16. T T P : Pak Army Operation • Enemy and objective was clearly defined. No strategic or tactical confusions! • Army willing to deploy daring unconventional tactics – largest heliborne landing in Asia ever of 4000 Special forces deep into the mountains, behind enemy lines surprised the insurgency. The General officer led the landing himself in terrorist infested mountains! • The area was cleared in less than two months in a classic counter insurgency operation which is now stuff of the legends and movies are being made on it! • The entire population of 3 million moved back into the valley immediately after the operation and now Swat is cleared and being rebuilt rapidly • The most successful counter insurgency operation ever in the world
  • 17. US / NATO: Occupation forces • Occupation force – hated by insurgency • Not willing to die. Emphasis is on survival and common man alike. Latest riots in and use of technology, causing more Mazaar Shareef against UN are ample collateral damage making them more example unpopular! • Relying on unreliable Afghans who have • Barking up the wrong tree no roots in population – wrong threat analysis • Occupation forces alien to local – blaming Pakistan for their failures instead language, culture, tribes and terrain of addressing the issues inside Afghanistan fighting a war without objectives, goals – North Waziristan has nothing to do with and no high moral ground. Morale is wars in Kandahar or Helmand, the fiercest lowest battlefields
  • 18. US / NATO: Burning Logistics • War Cost crippling the economy at home • NATO supplies remain vulnerable in Pakistan – the weakest and most vulnerable link in the logistical support • Taliban remain flushed with money as NATO and drug lords pays them for safe transit of convoys and drug consignments. Weapons and ammo come from robbing NATO supplies, Afghan army pilferage, and open black market in tribal areas and central Asia and Iran
  • 19. US / NATO Fate : Defeat • All signs are that the fate of the present occupation forces would be identical to Soviets • Soviet Union saw the defeat too late, signed the Geneva accord and tried to find an exit but the staggering cost of the war destroyed the Soviet empire • Present occupation forces are still not negotiating an exit, still feel they can win the war and have still not learnt from the 10 years of this present conflict
  • 20. US / NATO Fate : Defeat • Pashtun resistance remains • Pakistan or the Pakistani tribals decentralized and dispersed in are still not supporting the various separate groups in Pashtun resistance nor providing regions from Kunar in north East any base areas or supplies but to Helmend in south East, with things can change in future if pockets all over the country – Pashtuns are persecuted in making it almost impossible to Afghanistan or TTP insurgency strike at the centre of gravity or continue to get support from to decapitate the resistance Afghanistan. Relations between ISI and CIA are most tense and almost at rock bottom these days.
  • 21. US / NATO Fate : Defeat • In desperation, force is being used more indiscriminately causing more and more civilian casualties – creating more hatred even within non-Pashtun groups. All the signs are that Tajik and Uzbek groups would also join the resistance in Northern regions • Resistance is trying to get SAM’s. Russian black market or Iran or even China could provide. That would be a game changer! • Occupation forces should work on a serious exit plan and start to talk with the Pashtun resistance • The Karzai regime has no future