BSRIA's Krystyna Dawson's presentation from ISH Frankfurt 2015.

1. Latest trends in the World
Traditional & Renewable Heating
Markets
Krystyna Dawson
Heating & Renewables
Manager
BSRIA WMI
March 2015

2. 2
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
Worlds heating markets by region
Main trends in traditional heating, 2014
World boiler & WH market overview
Focus on Europe – what is shaping the markets
Combined / Hybrid heating systems
Growing importance of controls
District heating and HIU
2

3. 3
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Radiators
23%
UFH
10%WH
20%
CB
5%
DB
42%
Radiators
0% UFH
4%
WH
71%
CB
3%
DB/Furnaces
22%
World Heating Market Value
by region, 2014
• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.
Population (million inhabitants)
USA + Canada Europe Japan China
352 778 127 1,360
3
North America
Total: 8.9 €billion
Europe*
Total: 14.9 €billion
Radiators
1% UFH
6%
WH
79%
CB
2%
DB
12%
Japan
Total: 3.9 €billion
China
Total: 6.8 €billion
Radiators
16%
UFH
23%WH
48%
CB
4%
DB
9%

4. 4
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Controls & energy
management are
growing
Overall slow
down
in sales of
renewables
Increasing
gasification in
China, Russia
and S. Korea
4
Main trends in traditional Heating Markets,
2013 - 2017
Importance
Urgency
Move towards
Communal heating
Substitution
of boilers by
renewables
in new build
Increasing
penetration
of wall-hung
boilers
Gas-fuelled boilers
dominance grows
• Low oil/gas
prices
• Push for
reduction of
CO2 emissions
• Energy
security issues
• Economics
Global Drivers:
ErP
and other efficiency
targets drive sales
of condensing
products

5. 5
Excellence in Market Intelligence
World domestic boiler market overview
2013-2017
5
‘000 units
Source: BSRIA
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
2013
2014
2017
Europe
-1%
Asia / ME
+15%
NA
+5%
Yearly sales of domestic boilers by country

6. 6
Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Water Heating markets 2014
6
World water heating market
Volume, 2014
Includes: GSWH, GIWH, ESWH, EIWH,
STWH, HPWH
Total 103.7 mln units
Largest water heating markets by technology, 2014
000 units
Europe
13%
Russia
3% North
America
11%
Brazil
26%India
2%
China
28%
Japan
4%
Saudi
Arabia
3% Others
10%
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
Brazil China Europe North America
Electric storage Gas storage
Electric instantaneous Gas instantaneous
ST Water Heaters SHW HP

7. 7Excellence in Market Intelligence
Water Heating market – Europe
Technology overview 2014
7
European Water Heating market,
by type, 2014
DHW HP sales, units, 2009 - 2018
• Electric storage dominate the market
but their share will decrease.
• The share of renewable WH systems
is set to grow thanks to DHW HP
uptake.
• Condensing WH will become
prevalent from 2018 due to the
legislation.Source: BSRIA, based on market analysis for 19 European countries
ST Water
Heaters
3%
DHW HP
2%
Combi boilers
34%
Electric storage
44%
Gas storage
1%
Electric
instantaneous
8%
Gas
instantaneous
8%
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F2016F2017F2018F

8. 8
Excellence in Market Intelligence
• c
What is shaping the European market
European Legislation
National Building Regulations
Pushing towards low / zero energy houses
• cEcodesign of Energy-related Products (ErP) Directive
• cEU Plan for Renewable Policy after 2020
EU Roadmap 2050
Pushing towards decarbonized electricity
Smart grid
to balance
S/D
Pushing for energy efficient products and systems
Energy security issues
• c

9. 9
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Single
dwellings
Multi-
dwellings
Commercial
/ public
Industrial
Micro-
grid
PV
CHPFuel
Cell
Small
wind
Impact on buildings
Increased
share of RES Decentralized
electricity
generation
Management of
energy demand
/ supply
Low energy
houses
Passive House
(42 kWh/m² per
year
Zero Energy
House
Positive
Energy
House
Smart
Meters
Smart
Grids
Energy
Storage
EMS/
BEMS
Smart
Buildings
EPBD

10. 10
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Impact on products
10
• Increase in Combined/Hybrid systems
Heating products embracing Controls
• Increase in the importance of controls
• Shift towards condensing products

11. 11
Excellence in Market Intelligence
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013 2017 2013 2017 2013 2017 2013 2017
EU* Rest of Europe* US China
non-condensing
condensing
Technology split in residential boilers (and furnaces in the US) sales in world regions, 2013 / 2017
*EU estimations based on data for UK, Italy, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Austria
Rest of Europe includes Turkey and Russia
World Domestic Boiler
Technology overview
11

12. 12
Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Commercial Boilers
Technology overview
12
000 units 000 units
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2013 2017
Commercial condensingCommercial non-condensing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2013 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2013 2017
000 units
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2013 2017
000 units

13. 13
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Combined heating installations today
15% 6%
3%
76%
Boiler-assisted installation With solar collectors
With biomass boilers/ stoves Standalone installation
European heat pump market by type
of installation, volume, 2013/2014
European solar thermal market by
type of installation, volume, 2013/2014
74%
12%
7%
2%
5%
Solar thermals installed with a boiler
Solar thermals installed with electric water heater
Solar thermasl installed with heat pump
Solar thermals with other type
Stand alone installation

14. 14
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Combined heating installations 2020
• Driven by low / zero / plus energy home standards
• Driven by energy prices (zero energy bill homes)
• Driven by legislation
Heat pump + Solar thermals
Heat pumps + PV
Fuel cell hybrid system
Gas con. boiler + PV
or
PV Thermal+
Heat pump

15. 15
Excellence in Market Intelligence 15
Sales of hydronic controls in Europe, 2013 - 2020
European Control market outlook
-
5,000.00
10,000.00
15,000.00
20,000.00
25,000.00
30,000.00
35,000.00
40,000.00
2013
2020
CAGR
7%
CAGR
10%
CAGR
5%
TRV,
63%
MRV
,
37%
Includes: UK, Germany, Italy, France, Poland

16. 16
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Controls market heading for a change
16
3%
European Thermostat
Market shares, 2013
Schneider Electric
Honeywell
Siemens
Delta Dore
Alre
others
88%
Vaillant
Bosch
Ariston
others
12%
Schneider Electric
Honeywell
Siemens
IMI Hydronics
others
80%
Bosch
Vaillant
Viessmann
others
20%
European controls market value 2013, 1,825 €million
NEST…
CAGR 2013-2020
1%
6% - Programmable thermostats sales some 3mln
units a year…
European Controllers
Market shares, 2013
US
Nest achieved sales of over 500K in 1 year…65%
17%
18%
Valves
Radiator valves
Controllers, thermostats

17. 17
Excellence in Market Intelligence
World heat pump market
by value, 2014
17
Regional market, share by valueTop 10 ranking by country, € mln
Total market: ~ 4.500 € million- 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0
Finland
Italy
Austria
Switzerland
Sweden
France
USA
Germany
China
Japan
38.0%
52%
10%
Europe Asia Pacific North America

18. 18Excellence in Market Intelligence
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Others
Finland
Italy
Austria
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
France
Germany
Heat pump market
Europe by volume
Total heat pump sales per country in Europe, units, 2011 - 2017
units

19. 19
Excellence in Market Intelligence
European Solar thermal markets 2012-2014
19
‘000 m2
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2012 2013 2014
Overall Europe
market volume
down by ~10%

20. 20
Excellence in Market Intelligence
District Energy Networks
20
• New build and Existing buildings
• Heating & Cooling
• Including:
CHP and biofuels
Geothermal Heat Pumps
Solar thermal collectors
Increased focus on District Energy
distribution systems in European cities.
Energy production is:
• local,
• decentralised,
• efficient,
• increasingly renewable.

21. 21
Excellence in Market Intelligence
Heat Interface Units
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012
2013
2014
Annual sales of HIU in main European markets, 2012 - 2014

22. 22Excellence in Market Intelligence
Thank you
Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836
Email: krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk