Regional insights for Middle East from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014. The Middle East maintains its leading role as the world’s top oil exporter but the share of production exported declines on rising domestic use.

1. BP Energy Outlook 2035
Middle East
The Middle East maintains its leading role as the world’s top oil exporter but the
share of production exported declines on rising domestic use. Here are a few
reasons why:
•
Middle East energy production is expected
to expand by 37% while consumption
grows by 77%.
•
Middle East oil production is expected to
expand by 22%, but demand by 55%
between today and 2035, eroding the
region’s capacity to export.
•
•
•
•
The Middle East remains the world’s largest
oil producer with its share of global supply
expanding from 32% today to 34% in 2035.
The region will also remain the world’s
largest oil exporter with volumes expanding
from 20 Mb/d to 22 Mb/d in 2035. Its share
of inter-regional exports will remain around
50%.
Export’s share of production, however,
declines from 72% to 65% as regional
demand grows faster than supply,
increasing the domestic utilization of oil.
Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel
in terms of both production (+74%) and
consumption (+95%). Consequently gas’
share of primary energy expands from 49%
to 54% in 2035.
•
The industrial sector is the principal
destination for primary energy consumption
with a 44% market share in 2035 and it is
also the fastest growing (+84%).
•
Power demand grows by 79% as gas
maintains its dominant position with a
market share of 72% in 2035. Transport
demand increases by 71% with oil holding
the top stop with 93% market share.
•
The Middle East will surpass the FSU as the
most energy intensive region in the world.
It will remain the most oil intensive region
and become the most gas intensive.
•
The region is expected to become the
largest consumer of liquids per capita,
surpassing North America. By 2035, the
region will consume over three times
liquids per person than the global average.
•
Middle East CO2 emissions are expected to
increase by 71% on rising fossil fuel
consumption. Meanwhile, fossil fuels will
account for 98% of demand in 2035.
•
It is expected that the region’s population
expands by 39% to 2035 and GDP grows
by 89%.
www.bp.com/energyoutlook