Regional insights for Africa from BP's Energy Outlook 2035 published in 2014. We project Africa will experience the world’s fastest regional energy demand growth – driven by urbanization, rising populations, and strong GDP growth. Africa will remain a significant exporter of oil & gas.

1. BP Energy Outlook 2035
Africa
We project Africa will experience the world’s fastest regional energy demand
growth – driven by urbanization, rising populations, and strong GDP growth.
Africa will remain a significant exporter of oil & gas. Here are a few reasons why:
•
In 2035, Africa will have 21% (1.8 Bn) of the
world’s population compared to 15% today.
The region will also account for 44% of the
global increase.
•
Energy demand is projected to grow by
93% between today and 2035, much faster
than the global average of 41%. However,
African demand will make up just 4% of the
global total.
•
Renewables in power generation expand
strongly, but from a very small base, as
does hydro (+157%). As a result, non-fossil
fuels are projected to double their market
share from 7% today to 14% in 2035.
•
Oil remains the dominant fuel (36%)
followed by gas (30%) and coal (21%).
•
CO2 emissions will increase by 76%
compared to the global average of 29%.
However, energy use per capita will be just
21% of the global average.
By sector, ongoing urbanization and
electrification means energy demand in
power generation will grow the fastest,
expanding by 124% and will account for
47% of energy demand in 2035.
•
Energy production will grow by 47% and
remains dominated by oil. Oil’s share,
however, shrinks from 55% today to 38%
in 2035 with natural gas rising to 35%.
•
Africa currently exports a significant amount
of its energy production (51%), but growing
domestic demand will reduce this ratio to
36% by 2035.
•
The region will remain an important source
of global oil and natural gas supply,
accounting for 10% of global oil and 9% of
natural gas production in 2035.
•
Africa will remains an important exporter of
natural gas, responsible for 23% of interregional exports in 2035. It will also account
for 10% of inter-regional oil exports.
•
The increase in combined oil and gas
production in Africa between today and
2035 is bigger than in any of the BRIC
countries.
Fossil fuels will account for 86% of demand
in 2035, with natural gas (+109%), oil
(+69%), and coal (+63%) all expanding.
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www.bp.com/energyoutlook