3. Overview
• Planning
– Fundamental principles
– Contexts
– Process description
– Designing a Plan
– Defining and Analysing Products
– Identifying Activities and Dependencies
– Estimating
– Contracting a Project*
– Scheduling
– Analysing Risk
– Completing a Plan
3
4. Project management tools B F C G
Project brainstorming and initial concepts, ideas, structures, aims, etc
Gathering and identifying all elements, especially causal and hidden factors
Scheduling and timescales
Identifying and sequencing parallel and interdependent activities and stages
Financials - costings, budgets, revenues, profits, variances, etc
Monitoring, forecasting, reporting
Troubleshooting, problem identification, diagnosis and solutions
Snapshot' or 'map' overview - non-sequential, non-scheduled
Format for communications, presentations, updates, progress reports, etc
Matrix key
B = Brainstorming main tool
F = Fishbone/Ishikawa Diagrams option/secondary tool
C = Critical Path Analysis Flow Diagrams
G = Gantt Charts sometimes useful
4
8. The Moscow Method
Setting priorities
M Must have requirement
S Should have if at all possible
C Could have but not critical
W Would be good to have... (Won’t have the time
to do it now, but maybe later)
8
9. History
Fishbone diagrams are also called 'cause and effect
diagrams' and Ishikawa diagrams, after Kaoru Ishikawa
(1915-89), a Japanese professor specialising in industrial
quality management and engineering who devised the
technique in the 1960s.
9
12. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
A fishbone diagram has a central spine running left to right, around which is built a problem
map of factors which contribute to the final result (or problem).
or
outcome
10
13. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
A fishbone diagram has a central spine running left to right, around which is built a problem
map of factors which contribute to the final result (or problem).
or
outcome
10
14. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
Factors Factors
problem
or
outcome
Factors
Factors
10
15. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
Factors Factors
For each project the main
categories of factors are identified
and shown as main ‘bones’ leading
to the spine
problem
or
outcome
Factors
Factors
10
16. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
Factors Factors
For each project the main
categories of factors are identified
and shown as main ‘bones’ leading
to the spine
problem
or
outcome
Factors
Factors
10
17. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
Factors Factors
For each project the main
categories of factors are identified
and shown as main ‘bones’ leading
to the spine
problem
or
outcome
P Into each category can be drawn ‘primary’
Factors elements (P) and into these can be drawn
secondary elements or factors (S), this can
be extended to third and fourth level factors
if necessary
S Factors
10
18. Fishbone diagram
cause effect
Equipment People
problem
or
outcome
Process
Materials
11
20. History - CPM and PERT
Basically, CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT (Programme
Evaluation Review Technique) are project management techniques,
which have been created out of the need of Western industrial and
military establishments to plan, schedule and control complex projects.
CPM/PERT or Network Analysis as the technique is sometimes called,
developed along two parallel streams, one industrial and the other
military.
13
21. History - CPM and PERT
In 1957 the Critical Path Method (CPM) was developed as a network
model for project management.
• uses a fixed time estimate for each activity
• does not consider time variations that can have impact on the
completion of the product/project
• easy to understand and use
CPM was the discovery of M.R.Walker of E.I.Du Pont de Nemours &
Co and J.E.Kelly of Remington Rand.
The Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) is a network
model that allows for the randomness in activity times.
PERT was developed in 1958 for the US Navy’s Polaris project in
response to having thousands of contractors involved.
14
22. Project critical path analysis
(flow diagram or chart)
'Critical Path
B E
Analysis' sounds
very complicated, 1 3
but it's a very H
logical and effective 2
method for
planning and A C F finish
managing complex 2 5 2
projects. A critical I
path analysis is 2
normally shown as
a flow diagram, D G
task identifier
whose format is 4 3 A
linear (organised in expected time to2
a line), and complete task
specifically a time- Critical Path Analysis is also called Critical Path Method - it's
line. the same thing - and the terms are commonly abbreviated, to
CPA and CPM.
15
23. Steps in the PERT Planning Process
• Identify the specific activities and milestones
• Determine the proper sequence of the activities
• Construct a network diagram
• Estimate the time required for each activity
• Determine the critical path
• Update the PERT chart as the project progresses.
16
24. Critical Path
• The Key Concept used by CPM/PERT is that a small set
of activities, which make up the longest path through the
activity network control the entire project.
• If these "critical" activities could be identified and
assigned to responsible persons, management resources
could be optimally used by concentrating on the few
activities which determine the fate of the entire project.
17
25. Critical Path - 5 useful questions
• when preparing a network diagram
• Is this a Start Activity?
• Is this a Finish Activity?
• What Activity Precedes this?
• What Activity Follows this?
• What Activity is Concurrent with this?
18
26. Drawing the CPM Network
4
activity
3
0 ES 7w
ks
ks 11
w
0 EF
dum
3
0 wks
my a
activity activity
1 ctivit 4
y
4w
ks ks
activity 6w
2
4
19
27. The Backward Pass - Latest finish time rule
To make the Backward Pass, we begin
at the final event and work backwards
4 to the first event.
4
3
0 ES 7w
ks 11
ks
w
0 EF
dum
3
11
0 wks
1 my a 4
ctivit
y
4w
ks ks
6w
2
4
4
20
29. Scheduling of Activities using a Gantt Chart
Project Planning Period
Timeline in Weeks
Activity Duration 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
(wks)
1-2 4
2-3 0
3-4 7
1-3 3
2-4 6
Project due date
11 weeks after start
22
30. The PERT (Probabilistic) approach
So far we have talked about projects, where there is high certainty about the
outcomes of activities. In other words, the cause-effect logic is well known.
This is particularly the case in Engineering projects.
However, in Research & Development projects, or in Social Projects which
are defined as "Process Projects", where learning is an important outcome,
the cause-effect relationship is not so well established.
In such situations, the PERT approach is useful, because it can accommodate
the variation in event completion times, based on an expert’s or an expert
committee’s estimates.
23
31. The PERT (Probabilistic) approach
For each activity, three time estimates are taken
• The Most Optimistic
• The Most Likely
• The Most Pessimistic
The Duration of an activity is calculated using the following formula:
to+4 tm+ tp
te =
6
24
32. The PERT (Probabilistic) approach
to+4 tm+ tp
te =
6
te Expected time
tm Most probable activity
tp
time
to Optimistic time Pessimistic time
25
33. Standard Deviation
tp - to
s1 =
6
The Variance is the Square of the Standard Deviation
to Optimistic time tp Pessimistic time
26
38. Scheduling
Task 1 Task 3
Start
Task 2 Task 4
Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity
Task 4
Latest start Total float for Latest finish
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity
simple activity-on-node diagram
28
39. Scheduling
Task 1 Task 3
Start
Task 2 Task 4
Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23
Task 4 Task 4
Latest start Total float for Latest finish LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity
simple activity-on-node diagram
28
40. Scheduling
Task 1 Task 3
Start Task 5
Task 2 Task 4
Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23
Task 4 Task 4
Latest start Total float for Latest finish LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity
simple activity-on-node diagram
28
41. Scheduling
Task 1 Task 3
Start Task 5 End
Task 2 Task 4
Earliest start Duration of Earliest finish
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity ES = wk18 D = wk5 EF = wk23
Task 4 Task 4
Latest start Total float for Latest finish LS = wk18 TF = wk0 LF = wk23
time for the the activity time for the
activity activity
simple activity-on-node diagram
28
42. Further Reading
• Project Management Institute (2003). A Guide To The Project
Management Body Of Knowledge (3rd ed. ed.). Project Management
Institute. ISBN 1-930699-45-X.
• Klastorin, Ted (2003). Project Management: Tools and Trade-offs (3rd
ed. ed.). Wiley. ISBN 978-0-471-41384-4.
• Kerzner, Harold (2003). Project Management: A Systems Approach to
Planning, Scheduling, and Controlling (8th Ed. ed.). Wiley.
ISBN 0-471-22577-0.
• Milosevic, Dragan Z. (2003). Project Management ToolBox: Tools and
Techniques for the Practicing Project Manager. Wiley.
ISBN 978-0-471-20822-8.
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44. Selected
theme EXAMPLE required
date
List of venue
Speaker
requirements
options
Booking
requirements
Speaker List of possible
invitations venues
Booked Venue
speakers enquires
Mailing list
Agreed
Selected and
programme
booked venue
Mail shots
Slides and Printed Feedback
Covers
Notes agenda form Press release
Delegate handout pack
Final Responses
attendance list
On-the-day
staff Product Flow
Diagram for
Conference organising a conference
45. Product
Selected theme
Product
ID
A
Activity
ID
A1 Receive theme
EXAMPLE
Associated Activities Predecessor
-
Required date B B1 Receive date -
Mailing list C C1 Receive mailing list -
Speaker Option D D1 Identify possible speakers A1
D2 Prepare speaker database D1
Speaker invitations E E1 Prepare speaker invite letter D2
E2 Merge invite letter E1
E3 Post invite letters E2
Booked speakers F F1 Receive replies E3
F2 Confirm speaker booking F1
Slides and notes G G1 Prepare slides F2
G2 Put into show order G1
G3 Print slides G2
Covers H H1 Design covers A1
H2 Print covers H1
Agreed programme J J1 Draft programme F2
J2 Agree programme J1
Printed agenda K K1 Agree agenda J2
K2 Print agenda K1
Feedback Form L L1 Agree feedback form J2
46. Gantt Charts
• Gantt Charts (commonly wrongly called gant charts) are
extremely useful project management tools. The Gantt Chart
is named after US engineer and consultant Henry Gantt
(1861-1919) who devised the technique in the 1910s.
• Gantt charts are excellent models for scheduling budgeting,
reporting, presenting and communicating project plans and
progress easily and quickly,
• But as a rule Gantt Charts are not as good as a Critical Path
Analysis Flow Diagram for identifying and showing
interdependent factors, or for 'mapping' a plan from and/or
into all of its detailed causal or contributing elements.
• see - www.smartsheet.com or www.mindgenius.com
33
50. Critical Path Analysis & TASKS
Gantt Chart
Create a time-line (Critical Path Analysis) and a Gantt Chart for this task
A cooked full English breakfast
2
• Consider colour coding the time blocks to denote type of activity (for example, intense, watching
brief, directly managed, delegated and left-to-run, etc.)
• You can schedule ‘review’ and insert break points. (are you burning the toast?)
• At the end of each line you can show as many cost columns for the activities as you need. You could
estimate the produce, labour and the utility costs and list these within the chart.
• (A cooked breakfast will shows minutes, but normally you would use weeks, or for very big long-
term projects, months.)
37
51. Critical Path Analysis & TASKS
Gantt Chart
Create a time-line (Critical Path Analysis) and a Gantt Chart for this task
A cooked full English breakfast
3
• A Gantt chart like this can be used to keep track of progress for each activity and how the costs are
running.
• You can move the time blocks around to report on actuals versus planned, and to re-schedule, and to
create new plan updates.
• Costs columns can show plan and actuals and variances, and calculate whatever totals, averages,
ratios, etc., that you need.
• Gantt Charts are probably the most flexible and useful of all project management tools, but
remember they do not very easily or obviously show the importance and inter-dependence of related
parallel activities, and they won't obviously show the necessity to complete one task before another can
begin, as a Critical Path Analysis will do, so you may need both tools, especially at the planning
stage, and almost certainly for large complex projects.
38
52. Critical Path Analysis EXAMPLE
flow diagram
Toast Bread
Grill Bacon and Tomatoes
Prepare Fry eggs
Purchase ingredients
ingredients Fry sausages
Prepare cooking
equipment
Start Serve
Assemble Lay table
crockery/utensils
and condiments
Warm plates
Time
39
55. Preparing estimates (1)
• Time and resources required
– Type of resource
• skills required for the type of resource
– include both human and non-human
» equipment, travel, expenses.............
– Effort required for each activity
• these will be approximate and provisional
42
56. Preparing estimates (2)
• Assume that resources will be productive for, say, 80% of there time
• Resources working on numerous project take longer (e.g.
supervisors availability)
• People are generally optimistic and underestimate time taken
• Make use of other people’s experience and your own
• Alway build in provision for problems solving, meetings and other
unexpected events
• Cost each activity, not the whole
• Communicate any assumptions, exclusions or constraints to the
user(s)
43
57. Analysing Risk
Risk analysis Risk management
Identify the risks
Evaluate the risks Monitor and report
Identify suitable
Plan and resource
responses to risk
Select
44
58. Analysing Risk
EXAMPLE
Factor Likelihood Impact Mitigation Strategy
Failure to recruit staff Medium High Minimise number of staff to be recruited. Ensure
recruitment cycle begins as rapidly after project
approved as possible. Ensure remuneration
adequate to level of responsibility and expertise. Use
specialist recruitment agency if necessary. Other
staff seconded from other duties and additionally
trained as triage solution.
Underestimate Low Medium Close integration with OSS community effort to
difficulty of specific mobilise additional resource to bear on problem
technical development space.
Difficulty integrating Medium High Deploy Identity Management software based on
with data sources for open standards. Direct engagement with systems
identity specialists.
Difficulty integrating Medium High Work with the various Engineering institutions to
the numerous develop a concept concerning the creation and
electronic systems adoption of Standards (i.e. LEAP2A)
within the Engineering
framework
Project fails sufficiently Low High Staff within the University of Hull, particularly the
to engage engineering Knowledge Exchange will ensure that the ‘learner
communities voice’ is represented throughout the project,
inclusive of the broad diversity (including
geographic) of learners represented within the
partnership.
59. Completing a Plan
• A plan should contain the following:
• Plan Description
• Plan Prerequisites
• External Dependencies
• Planning Assumptions
• Lessons Incorporated
• Monitoring and Control
• Budgets
• Tolerances
• Product descriptions
• Schedule
(see ‘Plan’ template)
46
