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Cooperative Behaviour vs Unilateral Intervention: Why cooperate and where
- 1. Cooperative Behaviour vs. Unilateral Intervention: Why should we cooperate, and where? Paola Subacchi, Richard Varghese and William Jackson International Economics, Chatham House Search for Post-Crisis Growth Models and Policy Tools for Macro-Coordination 2-3 December 2010, London
- 3. Converging Global Goals and Diverging Domestic Goals
- 5. Sustaining growth is the goal for all Source: IMF Global growth rates (%, real GDP) since the 1990s.
- 6. Is rebalancing the global economy a goal for all? Growing current account imbalances (% of world GDP) Source: IMF
- 8. Global growth and cooperation: are they in synch? Source: IMF Cooperation was easier when all countries were ‘diving’ together than at present, when some countries and regions are performing much better than others. November: China unveils fiscal stimulus Washington G20 Summit February: US fiscal stimulus April: London G20 Summit
- 10. When does government debt become a problem? Source: IMF projections for 2010, World Bank external debt data (as of 2010 Q2) Govt. deficit Govt. debt Govt. external debt Short-term govt. external debt GDP growth projections (% of GDP, 2010) (% of GDP, 2010) (% of GDP, 2010) (% of GDP, 2010) (%, average 2010-15) Brazil -1.7 66.8 3.1 0.0 4.7 Canada -4.9 81.7 15.2 1.5 2.5 France -8.0 84.2 49.8 9.9 1.9 Germany -4.5 75.3 36.3 2.9 2.0 India -9.2 71.8 4.8 0.1 8.4 Italy -5.1 118.4 50.5 4.4 1.3 Japan -9.6 225.9 13.2 5.8 2.0 UK -10.2 76.7 20.5 2.1 2.3 USA -11.1 92.7 27.5 5.0 2.7
- 11. When does unemployment become a problem? Source: IMF, National Statistical Authorities Unemployment (% of workforce) – a pressing concern in the US.
- 12. Domestic goals: which are the priorities ++ ++ +++ +++ France GDP growth Reducing unemployment Fiscal consolidation Controlling capital flows Managing inflation Increasing exports US +++ +++ + ++ China +++ +++ ++ Germany +++ ++ +++ Japan +++ ++ +++ UK +++ ++ +++ ++ India +++ + ++ +++ + Brazil +++ +++ + ++
- 13. Why should we cooperate?
- 22. Policy Spillovers: An Obstacle to Cooperation?
- 26. Swiss FX intervention Source: Oanda The Swiss case shows that FX intervention may end up as a self-defeating process.
- 30. What form should cooperation take?
- 34. Regional imbalances: the European Union Source: IMF Imbalances within the European Union (% of EU GDP)
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Assuming states are autonomous self-interested entities interacting in an international environment, individual states will cooperate with others when cooperation is in its self interest.
- (e.g. an EU wide defence cooperation treaty) US-China deal wont happen
- Is China–US cooperation a necessary/sufficient condition for reducing global imbalances?