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2011 Alterian Buzz Bowl Findings
Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot
 Published by Scott Briggs, Strategic Solutions, Alterian
Agenda




• Motivation
• Methodology and Metrics
• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)
• Insights and Analysis
Making Honey




                 Social Intelligence
  “The management and analysis of customer
   data from social sources, used to activate
     and recalibrate marketing programs.”
          – Zach Hofer-Shall Defining Social Intelligence)
Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot




 Devise a model that helps
 quantify social media in a
   way that is useful for
 marketing decision making
Super Reach



 The Super Bowl has become an iconic symbol of the power of the 30 second
 spot. The Super Bowl still attracts advertisers and viewers alike. In the
 biggest media event of the year for brands and networks the world gathers
 not just to see the game, but also the best the creative agencies have to offer.

 • 111M (US) Viewers – Highest Rated Super Bowl Ever
 • ~$250M spent on the media purchase alone
 • 70+ in-game spots spread across 27 pods
 • Average paid per spot $3M
 • 20 Brands purchased more than 30 seconds of commercial time
Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot




The Questions for All Brands:
• Was the Investment Worthwhile?
• Can we Quantify the Results?
• How do we Compare to other Advertisers?
• What was the Longevity of the Spot?

The Question for us to Explore:
• Can we use Social Media to Help Answer
  Those Questions?
Agenda




• Motivation
• Methodology and Metrics
• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)
• Insights and Analysis
Methodology - Three Phases of Social Intelligence



                      Social conversations take place in myriad
                      channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter

 1.                   feeds, but the triangulation of all possible
                      sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews,
                      to industry association communities, and blogs.
Listening - Collecting the right data




                                          • Collected conversations
                                            related to the Super Bowl
                                            and advertising
                                          • Searched for results
                                            related to the topic, not
                                            the Brands
     Conversations        Taxonomy of     • Collected 433,531
       about the           Advertising      conversations (~40%
      Super Bowl             Terms          increase from 2010)
                                          • Human analysis to
                                            remove „bad‟ results and
                                            domains


            433,531 Total Conversations
Listening - Collecting the right data




                                        • Two Step Process
              Conversations             • Only after collecting “on-
                about the                 topic” conversations do
               Super Bowl                 we attribute to the brand
                                        • Consistent approach for
                                          all brands
                                        • Avoids the problem of
       Taxonomy                           some brands having
           of                             more „organic‟ mentions
                          35 Brands
       Advertising                      • Use Category Rules to
         Terms                            automate the process
                                        • Collected 241,318 Brand
                                          Conversations (~55%
                                          increase from 2010)
          241,318 Brand Conversations
Listening - Three Time Periods



            Time Period   Dates       Days   Results
            Pregame       Dec. 1 –    67     141,142
                          Feb. 5
            Gameday       Feb. 6 &    2      200,636
                          Feb. 7
            Postgame      Feb. 8 –    27     91,735
                          Mar. 6




                                     46% of
                                     Conversations
                                     were on
                                     Gameday
Listening – Sentiment Analysis Approach



  A key component of Social Media Monitoring is Sentiment Analysis.
  Sentiment Analysis has many well-documented challenges. When performing
  a comparative analysis like Buzz Bowl those challenges are magnified. For
  that reason, we employed a hybrid approach of automated and manual
  analysis for improved accuracy.

  1. Using SM2‟s automated analysis we rated every result for
     sentiment
  2. We selected a random set of posts for each brand to evaluate the
     sentiment manually
  3. We created a list of words that either needed to be removed or
     added to the standard sentiment dictionary
  4. We made 29 adjustments to the positive and negative dictionaries
  5. Executed the sentiment analysis again with the edited dictionaries
Methodology - Three Phases of Social Intelligence



                      Social conversations take place in myriad
                      channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter

 1.                   feeds, but the triangulation of all possible
                      sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews,
                      to industry association communities, and blogs.


                      Collecting data is essential, but it‟s only the first
                      step in building value. A real point of

 2.                   differentiation is the ability to convert that into
                      actionable insights. Semantical analysis is part
                      of this, but so is inclusion of multi-channel data.
Learning Environment
                                        Cost Analysis
                                                              Indices




                  Sentiment
                                       Duration / Intensity




Syndicated Data
                              Volume
Metric 1 - Reach



Reach is an important concept for social    For each mention:
media analysis because it helps bridge
social measures into the parlance of        Mention     Author x       Factor
traditional marketing measurement.                              (tied to specific channel)



To calculate this, we analyze each result
whereby for a given author, in a given
channel we attribute how many eye balls
potentially saw that mention. We do this
using the SM2 popularity measure which
can translated into potential views. This
accounts for the likes of a Charlie Sheen
having far greater reach than the typical
Joe.
Metric 2 - Social Engagement Index (SEI)



Estimates the social reach of a brand by
taking the count of mentions and factoring       ∑ Brand Reach
based upon the popularity of the author                                  x 100
(as described under reach).                  Average Advertisers Reach

Indexing then enables easy comparison
between the brands. This is
accomplished by dividing a brands
potential reach by the overall average and
finally by multiplying by 100. Following,
any score of less than 100 indicates a
brand that scored below the average.
Metric 3 - Social Sentiment Engagement Index (SSEI)




  Similar calculation to the SEI, but adds an
  additional element of sentiment whereby       ∑ Mention x Reach x (+/- 1)
  reach score is adjusted positively for a                                    x 100
  good comment, but negatively for a poor          Average Advertisers
  one.

  Again the brands have been indexed
  against 100, but here a brand can actually
  achieve a negative score. Anything less
  than 100 indicates a below average
  sentiment, while a score less than 0
  indicates a net negative sentiment.
Metric 4 - Cost Per Social Impression (CPSI)



A commodity that nearly all marketers deal
in is impressions. Tracing back to roots in   Brand Social Reach
RFM we‟ve been schooled on building
awareness by efficiently generating              Media Spend
impressions. It‟s not the overall spend
that‟s important, but the cost per
impression.

With the CPSM model what we‟ve done is
take each brand‟s media spend and
divided by their total reach. Like other
CPx models, understanding relative
performance will take time to develop
historical benchmarks. Looking at the
Super Bowl alone brands that generated
better than $.36 per impression beat the
average.
Metric 5 - Longevity Index




Decay is another important factor for
brand advertising. Stated more simply,         ∑ Brand Mentions   Game
                                                                  Game + 30
this refers to the declining effect a given                       Game
ad has moving forward in time after its        Average Mentions   Game + 30


execution. This additional reach can also
be termed the long tail.

For this measure, we compare the slope
of decline in the tails for each brand
compared to the average slope for all
brands. Indexed at 1, the lower the score
indicates the more rapid the drop off, while
the higher number points to a fatter tail,
and more extended engagement.
Three Phases of Social Intelligence



                      Social conversations take place in myriad
                      channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter

 1.                   feeds, but the triangulation of all possible
                      sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews,
                      to industry association communities, and blogs.


                      Collecting data is essential, but it‟s only the first
                      step in building value. A real point of

 2.                   differentiation is the ability to convert that into
                      actionable insights. Semantical analysis is part
                      of this, but so is inclusion of multi-channel data.

                      The last phase is to turn those standard metrics
                      into insights that marketers can use. The best

 3.                   insights are not useful if it is not understandable
                      in the right hands. A key ingredient to making
                      social intelligence impactful on marketers is the
       UNDERSTAND     isolation and elevation of key points.
Agenda




• Motivation
• Methodology and Metrics
• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)
• Insights and Analysis
Aggregate Reach



                                                  • TV Viewership for the
                                                    2011 Super Bowl was
                                                    estimated at 111 Million
                                                    Viewers in the US
                                                  • Conversations about
                                                    Chrysler had the furthest
                                                    Social Reach of 116
                                                    Million
                                                  • The Average advertiser
                                                    had a potential Reach of
                                                    20.5 Million



 Social Reach shows us that Social Media is large and important channel.
Marketers that can effectively leverage Social Media can significantly expand
                                 the audience.
Most Engaged - SEI
Most Loved – SSEI
Extending the Connection – Longevity Index



                           • The long tail concept works well with
                             Social Media Measurement

                           • Longevity Index is dominated by the top
                             3 Brands – all have greater than 100x
                             average

                           • 23 Brands had tails below the average
Varying Returns - CPSI

 $2.00                               $1.94


 $1.80

 $1.60
                           $1.43
 $1.40
                                          $1.25
 $1.20

 $1.00
                                                                                                               $0.80
 $0.80                                                                                                                    $0.73
            $0.59
 $0.60                                                                                                                         $0.53
                                                                  $0.47                                           $0.46
                                  $0.35           $0.36
 $0.40                        $0.32                                    $0.31                   $0.33
                                                          $0.28
                      $0.22                                                                                            $0.24
 $0.20         $0.12                               $0.14 $0.12 $0.17              $0.13
                                                                              $0.11               $0.14                           $0.16
         $0.07                               $0.10                        $0.07                                                       $0.07
                   $0.06                                     $0.03                                                                        $0.06
                                                                                          $-              $-
   $-




                                   Alterian's Cost Per Social Impression (CPSI)
   Best: Groupon $0.03                             Average: $0.36 per                              Worst: CarMax $1.94
Agenda




• Motivation
• Methodology and Metrics
• Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11)
• Insights and Analysis
The Social Bowl?




   "I continued to hear that was the wrong
   way to go. But if you want to be part of the
   national discussion, you not only have to
   be on the Super Bowl, but you have to fully
   leverage social media.“ -- VW marketing
   chief Tim Ellis
   (http://www.usatoday.com/money/advertising/admeter/2011-02-08-admeter08_ST_N.htm)
Was it The Social Bowl?



  By looking at the data in the 3 distinct time periods we can measure the
  impact of the top Brands before, during and after The Super Bowl.

  • The Potential Reach data indicate a significant audience in Social
    Media
  • Many brands leveraged Social Media before and during the game
      • VW posted ad on YouTube
      • Mercedes “Twitter Fueled Race”
      • Audi created a Twitter Hashtag
      • Doritos/Pepsi “Crash the Super Bowl” promotion
      • Anheuser Busch Facebook Promotion

      Did Social Media Extend the Impact of the Advertising?
Social Engagement Index – Top 5 Brands




      Pregame         Gameday        Postgame
Pregame SSEI




Pregame SSEI shows a
similar pattern – the
top 5 all have a
significant investment
in Social Media.

Indicates a net positive
sentiment for those
brands that leveraged
social media pregame.
Gameday SSEI



 VW and Chrysler were
 most liked on Gameday.
 Both had ads that
 compelled viewers. VW
 leveraged social media,
 Chrysler did not.

 Groupon saw the
 downside of a large reach,
 the reaction to their ad
 was mostly negative.

 Only 2 brands had more
 negative than positive
 comments on Gameday
Postgame SSEI



The conversation
turned negative after
the game. 10 brands
had more negative
than positive
conversations.

2 Brands dominated
the positive
conversations: VW and
Chrysler
Which Brands Extended the Conversation?



                      VW leveraged Social Media and had
                      compelling creative. VW had greater than
                      average reach and sentiment before, during
                      and after the Super Bowl.
Chrsyler – Imported from Detroit



                         Chrysler did not leverage Social Media as
                         much as some other brands. However a
                         compelling ad led to greater than average
                         reach and sentiment during and after the
                         Super Bowl.
Groupon – Ad turns negative



                         Groupon did not leverage Social Media
                         before the game. The Groupon ad
                         garnered mostly negative comments.
                         Could Groupon have mitigated this with a
                         pregame Social strategy?
Best Buy – What‟s a Beiber



                             Best Buy – The Justin Beiber
                             announcement caused a spike in
                             conversations. But over time the impact
                             lessened. How could they have extended
                             the conversation.
Motorola – Extending the Conversation




                        Motorola did not leverage Social Media as
                        much as other brands. However, the
                        conversation for Motorola turned positive
                        during and after the game.


             SEI Rank     SSEI Rank
Pregame      12           35
Gameday      6            6
Postgame     13           3
Summary



• The social channel provides the opportunity for significant mirroring of
  media campaigns
• A powerful ad on its own can generate significant buzz
• The combination of both compelling creative and leveraging social media
  can expand the reach of mass media
• Successful campaigns can expand awareness and can nearly double
  the reach of the primary channel
• Social media can slow decay and extend the lifespan of a campaign and
  dramatically impact overall performance
• Sentiment plays an important role – pointing to the power of the
  emotional brand connection, even in the social space
Questions About the Data?




       Scott Briggs
       Director, Strategic Solutions, Alterian
       scott.briggs@alterian.com
       +1 312 884 5236
       www.twitter.com/scott_briggs
info@alterian.com

             www.alterian.com

             www.EngagingTimes.com
Stay
Connected…   www.youtube.com/user/EngagingTimesLive

             @Alterian

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THANK YOU

www.ALTERIAN.com

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Social Intelligence and Super Bowl 2011

  • 1. 2011 Alterian Buzz Bowl Findings Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot Published by Scott Briggs, Strategic Solutions, Alterian
  • 2. Agenda • Motivation • Methodology and Metrics • Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11) • Insights and Analysis
  • 3. Making Honey Social Intelligence “The management and analysis of customer data from social sources, used to activate and recalibrate marketing programs.” – Zach Hofer-Shall Defining Social Intelligence)
  • 4. Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot Devise a model that helps quantify social media in a way that is useful for marketing decision making
  • 5. Super Reach The Super Bowl has become an iconic symbol of the power of the 30 second spot. The Super Bowl still attracts advertisers and viewers alike. In the biggest media event of the year for brands and networks the world gathers not just to see the game, but also the best the creative agencies have to offer. • 111M (US) Viewers – Highest Rated Super Bowl Ever • ~$250M spent on the media purchase alone • 70+ in-game spots spread across 27 pods • Average paid per spot $3M • 20 Brands purchased more than 30 seconds of commercial time
  • 6. Looking Beyond the 30 Second Spot The Questions for All Brands: • Was the Investment Worthwhile? • Can we Quantify the Results? • How do we Compare to other Advertisers? • What was the Longevity of the Spot? The Question for us to Explore: • Can we use Social Media to Help Answer Those Questions?
  • 7. Agenda • Motivation • Methodology and Metrics • Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11) • Insights and Analysis
  • 8. Methodology - Three Phases of Social Intelligence Social conversations take place in myriad channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter 1. feeds, but the triangulation of all possible sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews, to industry association communities, and blogs.
  • 9. Listening - Collecting the right data • Collected conversations related to the Super Bowl and advertising • Searched for results related to the topic, not the Brands Conversations Taxonomy of • Collected 433,531 about the Advertising conversations (~40% Super Bowl Terms increase from 2010) • Human analysis to remove „bad‟ results and domains 433,531 Total Conversations
  • 10. Listening - Collecting the right data • Two Step Process Conversations • Only after collecting “on- about the topic” conversations do Super Bowl we attribute to the brand • Consistent approach for all brands • Avoids the problem of Taxonomy some brands having of more „organic‟ mentions 35 Brands Advertising • Use Category Rules to Terms automate the process • Collected 241,318 Brand Conversations (~55% increase from 2010) 241,318 Brand Conversations
  • 11. Listening - Three Time Periods Time Period Dates Days Results Pregame Dec. 1 – 67 141,142 Feb. 5 Gameday Feb. 6 & 2 200,636 Feb. 7 Postgame Feb. 8 – 27 91,735 Mar. 6 46% of Conversations were on Gameday
  • 12. Listening – Sentiment Analysis Approach A key component of Social Media Monitoring is Sentiment Analysis. Sentiment Analysis has many well-documented challenges. When performing a comparative analysis like Buzz Bowl those challenges are magnified. For that reason, we employed a hybrid approach of automated and manual analysis for improved accuracy. 1. Using SM2‟s automated analysis we rated every result for sentiment 2. We selected a random set of posts for each brand to evaluate the sentiment manually 3. We created a list of words that either needed to be removed or added to the standard sentiment dictionary 4. We made 29 adjustments to the positive and negative dictionaries 5. Executed the sentiment analysis again with the edited dictionaries
  • 13. Methodology - Three Phases of Social Intelligence Social conversations take place in myriad channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter 1. feeds, but the triangulation of all possible sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews, to industry association communities, and blogs. Collecting data is essential, but it‟s only the first step in building value. A real point of 2. differentiation is the ability to convert that into actionable insights. Semantical analysis is part of this, but so is inclusion of multi-channel data.
  • 14. Learning Environment Cost Analysis Indices Sentiment Duration / Intensity Syndicated Data Volume
  • 15. Metric 1 - Reach Reach is an important concept for social For each mention: media analysis because it helps bridge social measures into the parlance of Mention Author x Factor traditional marketing measurement. (tied to specific channel) To calculate this, we analyze each result whereby for a given author, in a given channel we attribute how many eye balls potentially saw that mention. We do this using the SM2 popularity measure which can translated into potential views. This accounts for the likes of a Charlie Sheen having far greater reach than the typical Joe.
  • 16. Metric 2 - Social Engagement Index (SEI) Estimates the social reach of a brand by taking the count of mentions and factoring ∑ Brand Reach based upon the popularity of the author x 100 (as described under reach). Average Advertisers Reach Indexing then enables easy comparison between the brands. This is accomplished by dividing a brands potential reach by the overall average and finally by multiplying by 100. Following, any score of less than 100 indicates a brand that scored below the average.
  • 17. Metric 3 - Social Sentiment Engagement Index (SSEI) Similar calculation to the SEI, but adds an additional element of sentiment whereby ∑ Mention x Reach x (+/- 1) reach score is adjusted positively for a x 100 good comment, but negatively for a poor Average Advertisers one. Again the brands have been indexed against 100, but here a brand can actually achieve a negative score. Anything less than 100 indicates a below average sentiment, while a score less than 0 indicates a net negative sentiment.
  • 18. Metric 4 - Cost Per Social Impression (CPSI) A commodity that nearly all marketers deal in is impressions. Tracing back to roots in Brand Social Reach RFM we‟ve been schooled on building awareness by efficiently generating Media Spend impressions. It‟s not the overall spend that‟s important, but the cost per impression. With the CPSM model what we‟ve done is take each brand‟s media spend and divided by their total reach. Like other CPx models, understanding relative performance will take time to develop historical benchmarks. Looking at the Super Bowl alone brands that generated better than $.36 per impression beat the average.
  • 19. Metric 5 - Longevity Index Decay is another important factor for brand advertising. Stated more simply, ∑ Brand Mentions Game Game + 30 this refers to the declining effect a given Game ad has moving forward in time after its Average Mentions Game + 30 execution. This additional reach can also be termed the long tail. For this measure, we compare the slope of decline in the tails for each brand compared to the average slope for all brands. Indexed at 1, the lower the score indicates the more rapid the drop off, while the higher number points to a fatter tail, and more extended engagement.
  • 20. Three Phases of Social Intelligence Social conversations take place in myriad channels. It‟s not just about grabbing Twitter 1. feeds, but the triangulation of all possible sources from Facebook, to surveys and reviews, to industry association communities, and blogs. Collecting data is essential, but it‟s only the first step in building value. A real point of 2. differentiation is the ability to convert that into actionable insights. Semantical analysis is part of this, but so is inclusion of multi-channel data. The last phase is to turn those standard metrics into insights that marketers can use. The best 3. insights are not useful if it is not understandable in the right hands. A key ingredient to making social intelligence impactful on marketers is the UNDERSTAND isolation and elevation of key points.
  • 21. Agenda • Motivation • Methodology and Metrics • Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11) • Insights and Analysis
  • 22. Aggregate Reach • TV Viewership for the 2011 Super Bowl was estimated at 111 Million Viewers in the US • Conversations about Chrysler had the furthest Social Reach of 116 Million • The Average advertiser had a potential Reach of 20.5 Million Social Reach shows us that Social Media is large and important channel. Marketers that can effectively leverage Social Media can significantly expand the audience.
  • 25. Extending the Connection – Longevity Index • The long tail concept works well with Social Media Measurement • Longevity Index is dominated by the top 3 Brands – all have greater than 100x average • 23 Brands had tails below the average
  • 26. Varying Returns - CPSI $2.00 $1.94 $1.80 $1.60 $1.43 $1.40 $1.25 $1.20 $1.00 $0.80 $0.80 $0.73 $0.59 $0.60 $0.53 $0.47 $0.46 $0.35 $0.36 $0.40 $0.32 $0.31 $0.33 $0.28 $0.22 $0.24 $0.20 $0.12 $0.14 $0.12 $0.17 $0.13 $0.11 $0.14 $0.16 $0.07 $0.10 $0.07 $0.07 $0.06 $0.03 $0.06 $- $- $- Alterian's Cost Per Social Impression (CPSI) Best: Groupon $0.03 Average: $0.36 per Worst: CarMax $1.94
  • 27. Agenda • Motivation • Methodology and Metrics • Results (12/1/10 – 3/6/11) • Insights and Analysis
  • 28. The Social Bowl? "I continued to hear that was the wrong way to go. But if you want to be part of the national discussion, you not only have to be on the Super Bowl, but you have to fully leverage social media.“ -- VW marketing chief Tim Ellis (http://www.usatoday.com/money/advertising/admeter/2011-02-08-admeter08_ST_N.htm)
  • 29. Was it The Social Bowl? By looking at the data in the 3 distinct time periods we can measure the impact of the top Brands before, during and after The Super Bowl. • The Potential Reach data indicate a significant audience in Social Media • Many brands leveraged Social Media before and during the game • VW posted ad on YouTube • Mercedes “Twitter Fueled Race” • Audi created a Twitter Hashtag • Doritos/Pepsi “Crash the Super Bowl” promotion • Anheuser Busch Facebook Promotion Did Social Media Extend the Impact of the Advertising?
  • 30. Social Engagement Index – Top 5 Brands Pregame Gameday Postgame
  • 31. Pregame SSEI Pregame SSEI shows a similar pattern – the top 5 all have a significant investment in Social Media. Indicates a net positive sentiment for those brands that leveraged social media pregame.
  • 32. Gameday SSEI VW and Chrysler were most liked on Gameday. Both had ads that compelled viewers. VW leveraged social media, Chrysler did not. Groupon saw the downside of a large reach, the reaction to their ad was mostly negative. Only 2 brands had more negative than positive comments on Gameday
  • 33. Postgame SSEI The conversation turned negative after the game. 10 brands had more negative than positive conversations. 2 Brands dominated the positive conversations: VW and Chrysler
  • 34. Which Brands Extended the Conversation? VW leveraged Social Media and had compelling creative. VW had greater than average reach and sentiment before, during and after the Super Bowl.
  • 35. Chrsyler – Imported from Detroit Chrysler did not leverage Social Media as much as some other brands. However a compelling ad led to greater than average reach and sentiment during and after the Super Bowl.
  • 36. Groupon – Ad turns negative Groupon did not leverage Social Media before the game. The Groupon ad garnered mostly negative comments. Could Groupon have mitigated this with a pregame Social strategy?
  • 37. Best Buy – What‟s a Beiber Best Buy – The Justin Beiber announcement caused a spike in conversations. But over time the impact lessened. How could they have extended the conversation.
  • 38. Motorola – Extending the Conversation Motorola did not leverage Social Media as much as other brands. However, the conversation for Motorola turned positive during and after the game. SEI Rank SSEI Rank Pregame 12 35 Gameday 6 6 Postgame 13 3
  • 39. Summary • The social channel provides the opportunity for significant mirroring of media campaigns • A powerful ad on its own can generate significant buzz • The combination of both compelling creative and leveraging social media can expand the reach of mass media • Successful campaigns can expand awareness and can nearly double the reach of the primary channel • Social media can slow decay and extend the lifespan of a campaign and dramatically impact overall performance • Sentiment plays an important role – pointing to the power of the emotional brand connection, even in the social space
  • 40. Questions About the Data? Scott Briggs Director, Strategic Solutions, Alterian scott.briggs@alterian.com +1 312 884 5236 www.twitter.com/scott_briggs
  • 41. info@alterian.com www.alterian.com www.EngagingTimes.com Stay Connected… www.youtube.com/user/EngagingTimesLive @Alterian www.slideshare.net/Alterian LinkedIn Groups: Alterian www.facebook.com/AlterianFB